How to Predict If Your Flight Will Have Turbulence

Singapore Airlines A380 wing
There are free online tools that can predict the level of turbulence on your flight. Photo: Matt Graham.

If you’re wondering whether your flight will be subject to turbulence – and if so, when and how severe – you would normally have to listen carefully to the pilot’s announcement before or after takeoff (if you can even hear it over the engine noise). But did you know that there’s a website where you can easily find detailed information about the weather conditions that will affect your flight up to 36 hours in advance?

Turbli.com provides a turbulence forecast for any upcoming commercial flight based on real-time weather information. Not only can it tell you whether to expect bumps en-route, but it predicts exactly how far into the flight to expect turbulence and how bad it will be.

Turbli can also tell you if you’ll be passing near any thunderstorms en-route, as well as what detailed wind information. This includes the expected crosswind during take-off and landing, as well as the predicted headwind or tailwind levels throughout the flight. Using the wind information and comparing it to the average seasonal headwind or tailwind for the route, Turbli can even tell you if your flight is likely to arrive earlier or later than scheduled.

For example, let’s look at today’s Qantas flight from Brisbane to Auckland. If we search on Turbli for flights from Brisbane to Auckland, it then gives us a list to choose from. Selecting QF119, we then see this:

Turbli forecast turbulence for today's QF119
Forecast turbulence for today’s QF119. Screenshot from Turbli.com.

Using real-time weather forecast information, Turbli can immediately predict that there will be a few bumps during the climb but that most of the remaining flight will be smooth with just “light” turbulence. (The chart always shows some level of “turbulence” but bumps within the “light” range are nothing to worry about and would be barely noticeable.)

The estimated flight time takes into account the aircraft type and projected winds, among other things. The grey lines towards the start and end of the flight denote when the flight will reach cruising altitude and the top of descent, respectively.

Scrolling down on that same page for QF119, Turbli also provides information about the tailwind expected en-route:

Turbli's wind forecast for today's QF119
Turbli’s wind forecast for today’s QF119.

And finally, whether to expect any thunderstorms (the small storms around Brisbane explain why there might be a bit of turbulence after take-off) and the level of crosswind expected for take-off and landing:

Turbli thunderstorm, takeoff and landing information for QF119
Turbli thunderstorm, takeoff and landing information for QF119.

Overall, this flight looks like it will be quite comfortable. Here’s another example of a flight that might not be so great for getting a good sleep, particularly in the second half of the flight:

Turbli turbulence forecast for yesterday's AA929
Turbli turbulence forecast for yesterday’s AA929.

In some cases, strong headwinds (or weaker than seasonally average tailwinds) can also make a flight take longer than scheduled. Here’s one example:

Turbli wind speed forecast for yesterday's QF64 departure from Johannesburg to Sydney
Turbli wind speed forecast for yesterday’s QF64 departure from Johannesburg to Sydney.

There are lots of things you could do with this information. For example, if you knew there would be a strong headwind making the flight take longer, you could anticipate a late arrival. You could plan when you will work or sleep during the flight. Or if you knew there would be strong turbulence an hour prior to landing, you might expect that tea & coffee won’t be served in the meal service before arrival. But for aviation geeks, it’s just generally interesting information.

There are other resources that can also predict the weather, winds or turbulence you’ll experience en-route. One such website is Turbulence Forecast. There’s also Windy, which shows real-time jet stream maps.

Example of a jet stream map on Windy.com
Example of a jet stream map on Windy.com.

But Turbli seems to be the most user-friendly for people who aren’t pilots, giving you all the information you need in one place.

If you’re wondering how accurate Turbli is, you may be interested to know that its creator is an engineer with a PhD in Computational Fluid Dynamics. The resource is still on its first version, but it already looks like a useful and well made resource for frequent (and/or nervous) flyers!

You can leave a comment or discuss this topic on the Australian Frequent Flyer forum.

The editor of Australian Frequent Flyer, Matt's passion for travel has taken him to over 70 countries… with the help of frequent flyer points, of course!
Matt's favourite destinations (so far) are Germany, Brazil & Kazakhstan. His interests include economics, aviation & foreign languages, and he has a soft spot for good food and red wine.

You can connect with Matt by posting on the Australian Frequent Flyer community forum and tagging @AFF Editor.
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