General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

Lynda2475

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Availability of vaccine is irrelevant to the statistics.
Availability of vaccine is entirely relevant to predicting future cases. If vaccine isnt going to improve things no one would get it. I was talking about the way forward you seem to want to assume that we cant improve on the poor performance of Victoria last year.

In NSW, Qld, WA and NZ the covid death rate was less than 1%. In UK its 2.6%, in USA 1.7%. 4% is not the typical covid death rate and certainly not what is to be expected going forward in Australia.

I do not see 700 mentioned in the transcript
Nor do you see 10k. I may have recalled the numbers raised incorrectly confusing with other abc reports that listed lower numbers but sentiment is the same.

The 4k is for inluenza and pneumonia, and pneumonia has other causes than flu. ABS link below.


Whereas ABC's own reporting shows the lower 300k influenza infection number (link below) and 800 odd deaths.

I got 705 from googling an NNDSS report to check flu numbers, however now realise there was an updated report which is higher at 812. I cant find 4k anywhere for influenza only.

From Australian Influenza Surveillance Report No 12 - 23 September to 06 October 2019 - PDF 562 KB

Deaths in confirmed influenza cases
• NNDSS: So far in 2019, 812 influenza-associated deaths have been notified to the NNDSS. The majority of
deaths were due to influenza A (96%, n=782). Where subtyping information was available, 128 were
associated with influenza A(H3N2), 29 with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and 30 with influenza B. The median
age of deaths notified was 86 years (range <1 to 106 years).

With such a high median age one would expect most were being treated for other conditions.

You can choose to fixate on last year or as I hope our government will do, be realistic about there being some cases and deaths, and communicate a proper criteria and plan for opening up which considers what vaccination can achieve rather than keeping us locked away from rest of the world indefinitely.
 
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drron

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Depends what you mean by worst flu season ever.yes higher case numbers but lower deaths than 2017 which came in at 1251 deaths.
 

Lynda2475

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I have not disputed anywhere that 2017 was worse than 2019 wrt flu, in fact havent commented on 2017 at all.

So why do we accept flu cases and some flu deaths as enviable, but some cant cope with prospect of a future where we have some covid cases and deaths?

We have ability to administer vaccines with better efficacy than flu vax, so whilst there will be cases they should be fewer, it doesnt have to be zero.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I do not see 700 mentioned in the transcript just posted by @lovetravellingoz.

Yes Sales seems to not to have reminded the PM of that number based on the transcript..

However what she did ask seems to be based on deaths from Influeza AND pneumonia. If so, she was using the wrong statistic as not all deaths from influenza are caused by the flu.

1621128059332.png


However NNDSS under-estimates actual flu deaths as it a record of reported deaths where there has been laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza.

Note that the number of influenza-associated deaths reported to the NNDSS does not represent the true mortality associated with this disease. The number of deaths is reliant on the follow up of cases to determine the outcome of their infection. The follow up of cases is not a requirement of notification, and are only inclusive of laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza. Due to retrospective revision, the variation across jurisdictions in methodology, representativeness and timeliness of death data, and reporting of an outcome of infection not being a requirement of notification, year on year comparisons of deaths in notified cases of influenza may not be reliable.


So the actual number of flu deaths will be higher than the the NDISS total. However the NNNDSS is very useful for tracking the trend for both deaths and cases of the flu from season to season .


Also looking at the stats it is interesting to note that with Flu Deaths that in 2015 -2019 that NSW would seem to have had the worst record. Which just goes to show that how with infectious diseases that luck also seems to play a part.

1621128546183.png

 

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serfty

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Nor do you see 10k.
It is a round figure.

I'm equating via rate rather than compare apples to oranges, I comparing bananas to bananas.

In 2019 there were 313465 laboratory confirmed cases of Influenza in Australia..

So, in 2019 we have a rate of 0.223% deaths per case of influenza given the 700.

So far from covid-19 in Australia, the death rate is 3.035% (910 from 29975), some 13.6 times higher.

If that 13.5 time higher COVID-19 death rate was applied to the number of confirmed cases of Influenza in 2019, we have 9,526 deaths, rounded to 10K.
You can choose to fixate on last year or as I hope our government will d
It was not me who fixated on a different year, it was cited as a year referred to in a question in a televised interview. The 10K response still stands.
 

Lynda2475

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she was using the wrong statistic as not all deaths from influenza are caused by the flu
Which i alredy stated along with link to the abs page.

It was not me who fixated on a different year, it was cited as a year referred to in a question in a televised interview

Yes as an example of a death rate people accept (less than 1% not zero), no one proposed using the victorian covid death rate as an acceptable number.

10k covid deaths per annum in Australia didnt happen last year (when we understood less about transmission and didnt have a vacvine), so wont happen this year or next year (becuase we now have vaccines and greater knowledge).
 

ethernet

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Covid Cure? Gene Silencing.

If my understanding is correct, and this reverses bad bad going on fatal lung damage, why is not CSL baking up massive doses to give to say India, on cases where death is 99% probable?
Sure. On mice. My understanding of candidates, is 1 in 8 or better, should work on Humans. It HAS to be tested. Seems an opportunity begging.
Discuss.
 

JohnM

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Covid Cure? Gene Silencing.

If my understanding is correct, and this reverses bad bad going on fatal lung damage, why is not CSL baking up massive doses to give to say India, on cases where death is 99% probable?
Sure. On mice. My understanding of candidates, is 1 in 8 or better, should work on Humans. It HAS to be tested. Seems an opportunity begging.
Discuss.

Ho-hum - gene silencing has been gone on about for years... Gene silencing - Wikipedia

Silver bullets? Aahhh...., they don't come easy...

😜
 

drron

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Some good news.Immunity after natural infection has now been shown out to 9-11 months after the infection.

And for those who have had covid 1 dose of vaccine whether Oxford or Pfizer gives a much greater boost in immunity compared to those who haven't had covid.One dose is probably enough.
 

drron

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More of basic research.First the spinal chord.

And our immune system.


But don't work long hours.
1621546952132.png
 

Lynda2475

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Very happy to hear MRNA facility is going to go tender - its important we see good competition, not just hand to incumbent. Australia deserves a capability to produce modern vaccines for Covid and other vaccines and mrna treatments.

From SMH:

Australia moving quickly to enable onshore mRNA vaccine production

The federal government has unveiled plans to build a new Australian vaccine facility in a call for bids that puts global companies like CSL and Moderna in the running to develop a stronger domestic capacity against viruses, David Crowe reports today.

Companies will have the next eight weeks to prepare their plans to manufacture vaccines in Australia based on the new messenger RNA science underpinning products from Pfizer and Moderna.

“That will be done as a partnership between industry and government. The purpose of this will be not just to address the challenges we have with COVID-19, because the COVID-19 pandemic is raging and it will continue to rage, not just now, but it could be for years to come,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison said at a press conference in Tasmania this morning.

“This is not to address any immediate vaccination issues, it is to create a capability not just for producing vaccines to deal with COVID.
 

Flashback

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Typical, get offered to do a vaccine trial the day after I've completed my full course of Pfizer! Not eligible to participate as I've been jabbed.

Valneva – UK COVID-19 Vaccine Study Opening Now
You have received this email because you previously registered with the NHS COVID-19 vaccine research registry.

A new COVID-19 vaccine study is starting and looking for healthy adult volunteers to participate, who haven’t yet had a COVID vaccine. The study is sponsored by Valneva Austria GmbH. The major eligibility criteria are as follows:
• Aged 18 years or older
• Generally healthy
• Not already received or have booked to receive a vaccination intended to prevent COVID-19
If you have received an approved vaccine as part of the national rollout then you will NOT be eligible to participate in this trial. If you have been offered the vaccine but was unable to take it or have not yet been offered an approved vaccine then we encourage you to continue on to our pre-screening programme below. If you take part in this study, and are under 30 years of age you will be assigned to receive the VLA2001 vaccine.

If you are 30 years of age and over, you will be randomly assigned to receive either the investigational vaccine or the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is currently being administered throughout the UK as part of the national vaccine roll out. There is a two in three chance you will receive the investigational vaccine and a one in three chance you will receive the AstraZeneca vaccine.

There will be no cost to you, and you will be reimbursed for your time and inconvenience.

There will be a screening visit, two vaccination visits four weeks apart, and up to five further visits to attend. Study related activities will include physical examinations, COVID-19 testing and blood samples. In total, your participation is required for about 13 months.

Find out if you qualify by visiting our pre-screening website at Pre-screening Questionnaire. This service is provided by Pharm-Olam, a commercial clinical trial company.

You may be reimbursed for reasonable travel costs during your participation. Please note that travel to research or other healthcare appointments is considered essential travel at this time of extra COVID restrictions, and that your appointment will take place in a COVID-safe environment.

This study is being run with the support of the NHS and the National Institute for Health Research, working in partnership with Valneva Austria GmbH, Pharm-Olam and Panthera.

As a COVID-19 vaccine has been approved and roll out has started in the UK during the course of this study, we have put in place a process to make sure people on this trial are not disadvantaged. It is important to note that we will ideally find several vaccines to protect the whole population. Your participation in this study is still very much needed. More information can be found at www.bepartofresearch.org.uk.

As a registered volunteer with the NHS COVID-19 vaccine research registry, you may have received a request to join this or another vaccine study before, and we may send you further invitations. If you haven't already applied through this link, we are still looking for volunteers like you. However, you cannot take part (meaning to receive a trial vaccine) in more than one vaccine study.

Thank you for your ongoing participation in the NHS COVID-19 Vaccine Research Register. If you no longer wish to be part of this service, you can withdraw your permission at any time please visit Sign up to be contacted for coronavirus vaccine studies.


Professor Adam Finn, MD, PhD

Chief Invesitgator (sic)
 

drron

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The RACP has put out webinars on Covid vaccination.This one is from Feb 25 explaining the vaccines.Obviously some things have changed such as the clots.The first talk is explaining the vaccines and is still good value.Note it is given by the Head of Infectious Diseases at LGH.
 

drron

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Here is the 4th in the series with Alan Cheng talking about blood clots and AZ.

I have been able to do this as the college now allows direct access to everybody.Unfortunately it does make the info a bit out of date.

Just a possible reason why AZ might still become the most used vaccine.The clotting issue is very similiar to that caused by Heparin.A study in the USA showed that American Indians had double the chance of developing this but all other patients were white.No cases found in any other minority.It is quite probable this is a genetic problem hence possible that most of the world may be able to use it without problems.
 

Lynda2475

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lovetravellingoz

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And from the researchers and UK Gov.


Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 variant

Conclusions


After 2 doses of either vaccine there were only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness with the B.1.617.2 variant. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked with dose 1. This would support maximising vaccine uptake with 2 doses among vulnerable groups


The full report

Note: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review



Public Health England press office

Vaccines highly effective against B.1.617.2 variant after 2 doses

New study by PHE shows for the first time that 2 doses of the COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against the B.1.617.2 variant first identified in India.

From: Public Health England
Published22 May 2021
Last updated22 May 2021


Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant is similar after 2 doses compared to the B.1.1.7 (Kent) variant dominant in the UK, and we expect to see even higher levels of effectiveness against hospitalisation and death.

The study found that, for the period from 5 April to 16 May:


  • the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant 2 weeks after the second dose, compared to 93% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant
  • 2 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant compared to 66% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant
  • both vaccines were 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, 3 weeks after the first dose compared to around 50% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant
The analysis included data for all age groups from 5 April to cover the period since the B.1.617.2 variant emerged. It included 1,054 people confirmed as having the B.1.617.2 variant through genomic sequencing, including participants of several ethnicities. Data published on Thursday 20 May for vaccine effectiveness covered the period since December for those aged over 65.

The difference in effectiveness between the vaccines after 2 doses may be explained by the fact that rollout of second doses of AstraZeneca was later than for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, and other data on antibody profiles show it takes longer to reach maximum effectiveness with the AstraZeneca vaccine.

As with other variants, even higher levels of effectiveness are expected against hospitalisation and death. There are currently insufficient cases and follow-up periods to estimate vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes from the B.1.617.2 variant. PHE will continue to evaluate this over the coming weeks.

Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock said:


This new evidence is groundbreaking – and proves just how valuable our COVID-19 vaccination programme is in protecting the people we love.
We can now be confident that over 20 million people – more than 1 in 3 – have significant protection against this new variant, and that number is growing by the hundreds of thousands every single day as more and more people get that vital second dose. I want to thank the scientists and clinicians who have been working around the clock to produce this research.
It’s clear how important the second dose is to secure the strongest possible protection against COVID-19 and its variants – and I urge everyone to book in their jab when offered.
Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisation at PHE, said:

This study provides reassurance that 2 doses of either vaccine offer high levels of protection against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant.

We expect the vaccines to be even more effective at preventing hospitalisation and death, so it is vital to get both doses to gain maximum protection against all existing and emerging variants.
Minister for COVID-19 Vaccine Deployment Nadhim Zahawi said:

Almost every day we get more and more encouraging evidence about the difference our COVID-19 vaccines are making to people’s lives – with 13,000 lives saved and 39,100 hospitalisations prevented overall.
Today’s data is astounding and a true reflection of just how important it is to get both your jabs when offered.
I encourage all those offered an appointment to get their jab booked in as soon as possible and take full advantage of the high levels of protection the vaccines bring.
Separate PHE analysis indicates that the COVID-19 vaccination programme has so far prevented 13,000 deaths and around 39,100 hospitalisations in older people in England, up to 9 May.
 
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