General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

OZDUCK

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Yes, and we need to see the data because:

1. Many Aussies who are waiting to return have been vaccinated overseas with vaccines which are unlikely to ever be approved by TGA for use here. There was an article a few weeks ago about a number of expats who are working in China and ME who have had the less effective Chinese vaccines as that is all that is available, but once they return to Australia will need to be re-vaccinated or receive booster of a different kind.

2. As more supply of MRNA vaccines and other newer vaccines types become available to deal with variants, its likely that many of those who originally had AZ will want their booster to be something other than AZ.

Because some EU countries arent not giving the second doses of AZ to under 65s, there will be more real world data re vaccine mixing from EU very soon.
Post automatically merged:

My understanding of the trial is that as the 'mixing' occurred with the first and second shots and as no-one has yet had booster shots this trial has no relevance for that case.

More importantly there had been a large increase in infections in the Seychelles despite it being the "world's most vaccinated nation". There are many variables at play but the biggest concern appears to be in regard to the Sinopharm vaccine and its effectiveness..


World’s Most Vaccinated Nation Is Spooked by Covid Spike
 

Lynda2475

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My understanding of the trial is that as the 'mixing' occurred with the first and second shots and as no-one has yet had booster shots this trial has no relevance for that case.

Yes but there are other studies happening too and it is something we need to understand going forward. Boosters are scheduled to start in UK and US from September so not too far off.
 

drron

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Though what happens if a lot of people have their booster shot in the 3 months from September and a brand new more aggressive mutation arrives in December?
 

Lynda2475

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Though what happens if a lot of people have their booster shot in the 3 months from September and a brand new more aggressive mutation arrives in December?

That will be an ongoing risk forever.

The MRNA boosters are already being tweaked for the UK and South African variants, and if there are more variants then presumably you can get another booster when available.
 

drron

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That will be an ongoing risk forever.

The MRNA boosters are already being tweaked for the UK and South African variants, and if there are more variants then presumably you can get another booster when available.
That's the point how many boosters are we going to need.
 

Lynda2475

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That's the point how many boosters are we going to need.

Will depend on how much virus is actually circulating. If countries get things to manageable levels then a yearly booster ahead of flu season will likely be fine.

Leigh Sales reminded the PM last night that 700 Aussies died from flu in 2019 with no uproar. If we are ok with that we should be ok with a similar number of covid deaths.
 
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Lynda2475

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Will the Aussie government start pushing out their schedule now?

The study was for over 80s whereas in Australia the people predominantly getting the mrna vaccines will be under 50.

The only over 80s to get Pfizer here would be in aged care, and should have already had a second dose by now as were part of 1A.

Slowing the roll-out further would not be a good move for Australia. In younger people who generally have a better immune response 3-4 weeks has been used widely and successfully - looks at the improving numbers out of the USA and Israel.
 
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coriander

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drron

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WHO officially approves China's Sinopharm vaccine.

People withe auto immune inflammatory diseses have reduced response to vaccines and up to 10% fail to produce neutralising antibodies.

Vaccines good news for Pharma companies though Moderna lags.
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drron

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Another study of covid infections after full or partial vaccination with the Pfizer vaccine.not all cases were asymptomatic.

Using different vaccines for the first and second doses appears to increase vaccine reactions.

And the Sputnik vaccine is approved for Angola.Obviously the cheaper the vaccine and with only one dose this will appeal to many poorer countries.Will be interesting to see how it goes.
 

serfty

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Leigh Sales reminded the PM last night that 700 Aussies died from flu in 2019 with no uproar. If we are ok with that we should be ok with a similar number of covid deaths.
A correct answer would be, no it is not OK because you would be referring to over 10,000 deaths based on the number who were registered as contracting flu in 2019.
 

Lynda2475

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A correct answer would be, no it is not OK because you would be referring to over 10,000 deaths based on the number who were registered as contracting flu in 2019.

Leigh said a similar number to flu 2019 flu deaths so that would be 600-800 (in raw numbers) or 0.2 - 0.3% as a percentage.

We did not have 10k flu deaths in 2019 in Australia. There were 705 deaths from inluenza in 2019 from approx 300k cases, a death rate of 0.235% because we have very high rates of flu vaccinations in Australia.

You appear to have applied the death rate from Covid in Australia since the start of pandemic until today which is 4% (910 deaths from 22402 cases over 16 months) ignoring fact that was heavily skewed by uncontrolled spread in Victorian aged care and not comparable because there was no vaccine available when those deaths occurred.

Once all adults have had an opportunity to be vaccinated, against Covid, opening up to other vaccinated people wont mean zero cases, as we know no vaccine is 100% effective. There will be cases and some of those cases will result in death. But I call bs on 10k, the covid death rate in a vaccinated population will be much more like the flu rate.

The point that Leigh was making was that zero cases and zero deaths is not realistic. We cant stay an island forever, when we open up we will see cases and even some deaths and we need to accept that it is ok. There was no great uproar over 705 flu deaths in 2019.
 

drron

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Actually we don't have a very high rate of flu vaccination in Australia.In 2017 it had dropped below 50%.Number of deaths in 2017 from flu was 1250.
And the flu vaccine is really not that effective varying between 30-60%.
The Covid vaccines seem to be a little more effective so far.
 

Lynda2475

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Last year 68% got a flu vaccine, i consider that quite high.

Point remains the same, people accept flu deaths and will need to accept some covid deaths, its not going away, zero isnt realistic, getting things to point where it has similar impact as flu is.
 

lovetravellingoz

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For those interested in what was said in the Sales interview with the PM, the transcript of it is below (extract shown with full interview in the link at the bottom):

SALES: In a speech on March the 9th, you said that with sufficient vaccine we can move to treating COVID like the regular flu. What will that look like?

PRIME MINISTER: Well, this is ideal. But what would be necessary in that environment is there would need to be a tolerance in this country, particularly at state and territory levels, that where you were getting cases in this country, because if you start to open up, if you start to have those controls relaxed, then you can expect to see large numbers of cases in this country, even with the vaccination program [inaudible]. In the United States right now, Leigh, there's …

SALES: Well a lot of comparison, Prime Minister, sorry …

PRIME MINISTER: Sorry, you're interrupting. I'll let you go.

SALES: I just want to keep it in Australia. If you look at pre-COVID numbers from the regular flu in Australia from the Bureau of Statistics - 2019, 4,000 Australians dead, that's deaths, not cases. 2018 - 3,000 deaths, 2017 - 2,000 deaths from the regular flu. Are political leaders going to have to have an honest conversation with Australians about what living with risk looks like?

PRIME MINISTER: That's exactly the conversation that Australia's government leaders are having through the National Cabinet. That is exactly the process that I tasked through the National Cabinet over a month ago, and our chief medical advisers are going through that process to understand that as we speak right now. And that's why we are having the conversation about how you can have gradual changes in how these restrictions operate. For example, if you're vaccinated with approved vaccines in Australia, whether you can travel and return to Australia and you can go into some form of home quarantine. Now, at this point there is not advice to support that, but I note in New South Wales the Treasurer there has been open to that idea. So I think they're important, they're important next steps and I've been saying that consistently. But understand this, Leigh …

SALES: Well on that point, Prime Minister, on that point, sorry on that point, because you raised quarantine, you raised quarantine, that's the other pillar of the Budget, international borders. The assumptions for the middle of next year. So if an Australian wants to go and visit their son or daughter in London say in July of next year, will they be allowed to do so without having to do the two weeks quarantine on return?

PRIME MINISTER: Well, it's impossible for me to say at this point, Leigh. I think, we need to understand …

SALES: Is that your goal, though?

PRIME MINISTER: It's impossible for me to make those sorts of predictions in the middle of a global pandemic, the likes of which we haven't seen for 100 years. I can fully understand why people want greater certainty but I can only provide the certainty that is available. And what we've been doing is being careful, being led by the medical advice, being led by the economic advice. And that has got Australia where we are right now. And let's not forget, Leigh, that today 300 people are dying in the United States, 300 people. That's what's happening in other countries around the world. That's what was happening in the UK not that long ago. This is what's happening across India, as the pandemic rages around the world. And we can't sit here complacently thinking that this cannot have a serious impact on Australia …

SALES: … So given that …

PRIME MINISTER: … which is why, Leigh, the Budget is all about securing the recovery and a plan to do that because that recovery is at risk …

SALES: … So if you need to …

PRIME MINISTER: … It is at risk if we get these decisions not as they should be. And that's, our Government is getting those decisions right.



 
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serfty

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You appear to have applied the death rate from Covid in Australia since the start of pandemic until today which is 4% (910 deaths from 22402 cases over 16 months) ignoring fact that was heavily skewed by uncontrolled spread in Victorian aged care and not comparable because there was no vaccine available when those deaths occurred.
It is not skewed as, sadly, a death is a death whether from non contolled spread in victoria, aged care or otherwise. Availability of vaccine is irrelevant to the statistics.

You can take raw numbers and massage any way you need.

I'll stick with 10k and that would have been the answer to the question.

It is a bit like taking the recent vaccine rate and halving it to get an estimated completion date, " 'cause you know, you need two'.

Edit ...

I do not see 700 mentioned in the transcript just posted by @lovetravellingoz.
 
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drron

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Last year 68% got a flu vaccine, i consider that quite high.

Point remains the same, people accept flu deaths and will need to accept some covid deaths, its not going away, zero isnt realistic, getting things to point where it has similar impact as flu is.
But that was because there was a campaign to get it done so hospitals weren't going to be over run with flu cases.

2009 was 50% and it gradually dropped to ~45% by 2017.Unfortunately in 2017 the vaccine was also less efficient so our case numbers and deaths were higher.
The vaccine effectiveness that year was 33% for GP visits and 16% for hospital visits.Fortunately the predominant strains A H3N2 and B -53% and 37% respectively - were at the lower end of virulence. A H3N2 is generally more severe and tends to cause severe illness in the young as well as the elderly.

In 2017 only 40% of workers in health care,aged care and day centres were vaccinated.So mandatory vaccination for aged care workers was introduced.
Only 13% of indigenous adults were vaccinated so more was spent on programs to raise that level.

Rates that year highest in NSW and QLD.I was responsible for a flu ward in QLD that year.Fortunately I was vaccinated hence why i was assigned to that ward but did manage at the tail end to pick up RSV.Obviously out of the hospital setting as no patients in hospital had RSV at the time.
 

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