Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

OATEK

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Well that means they open the borders for the 2% who have been vaccinated, so we are talking about the elderly, the sick and front line workers. How many in that group are going to be travelling and if there are government travel alerts will anyone be able to get travel insurance?
Oh goody, here is one old bu%%er ready to go as soon as my AZ vaccination is complete.
You do realise even before you cleaned the gutters that getting out of bed you had a higher risk of falling on the way to get the ladder and dying right ;) Falling is a HUGE risk factor, so we should all just stay in bed.
I did a lot of work in aged care a few years back and falls were no 1 or 2 of the primary causes for hospitalisation of residents, alongside medications related problems. Doubt that Covid has changed any of that.

I recently posted an exerpt of a NSW Tender on here about managing overseas student quarantine. They put out an addendum this week, which states in part:

The return of international students as soon as possible is vital for retaining jobs in our education sector, and for the economy more broadly. International education is our second largest export, generating $14.6b in exports annually before the pandemic and supporting nearly 100,000 jobs in NSW. We estimate in 2021 we have already lost one third of our international student base. Returning international students must not displace returning Australian citizens and permanent residents and must not overload stretched Health and Police resources. A solution is required to identify a manageable, ongoing number of regular arrivals outside of the 3,000 per weekly cap that would sit alongside the current quarantine hotel model applying the same protocols and processes and led by NSW Police and Health.

Once significant numbers of students are allowed back in there will be real leverage for those of us who wish to depart, particularly for high priority reasons such as business and family reunion.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I don't have an issue with the information being widely reported, allowing informed choice. The USA administered 4.6 million doses of the vaccine yesterday. If they had been Oxford, up to 31 6* people would die from clotting as a direct result of the vaccine.

I think expecting people just accept that risk - 'take one for the team' so we can open borders - is perhaps unreasonable.

*figure corrected as per Pom-DownUnder's post below.
 
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Lynda2475

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People can choose to take AZ after they assess the risk, im sure many will.

But right now if you are aged under 50 in Australia with no other health issues and dont work in HQ program your chances of catching covid are lower than getting a blood clot from AZ (even though neither is likely to kill you if treated early).

There is zero incentive right now for most Aussies under 50 to accept the risk of AZ because it doeent afford any privileges - travel, work or other.

For other under 50s with health issues or who work with Covid positives their risk profile is very different, so they could be more inclined to accept AZ risk because for them its less than developing serious illness if they get Covid.

Taking one for the team to get borders open isnt a real option atm either, since there isnt a committed policy as to what % need to be fully vaccinated to open up.

Nor is anyone realising that the slow paced roll-out means we will need to be giving variant booster shots to the 1A and 1B before 2B and 3 have even had a first shot.
 
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Matt_01

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I like many others would like to travel again and willing to get the vaccine. A couple of the concerns I have is as a family unit of 3 MissM will be 15 and to the best of my knowledge there are currently no vaccine approved for minors and in the AU priority list she is not even on the radar. Another consideration are the caps that our government have placed on overseas travellers or returning AU residents. Even if we were allowed to quarantine at home there is a risk the airlines could bump us from flights and become stranded overseas.

At the moment these concerns do not out weigh my misguided optimism that we may be able to travel in 2022 and as such have started booking some reward trips, will these actually occur who knows and they can be cancelled.
 

jakeseven7

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And I heard that breathing was one of the last things they did. And heart beating.

True.

But now Pfizer and Moderna have been studied to also cause blood clots, back to square one for the conspiracy theorists ;)
 
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trevella

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I don't have an issue with the information being widely reported, allowing informed choice.
Problem with "informed choice" is that choices are often informed by innumerate ignorance. And then politicians start to pander to it.
The USA administered 4.6 million doses of the vaccine yesterday. If they had been Oxford, up to 31 people would die from clotting as a direct result of the vaccine.
QED.
 

jakeseven7

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None of the vaccines have been “proven” to cause blood clots.

Doesn't really matter, damage is done in the media these days, clearly from the AZ panic.

Just watched a breathless announcement on Sunrise on the Pfizer / Moderna blood clot news.

Sigh.
 

Lynda2475

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Have to wait and see.

If Moderna and Pfizer are indeed experiencing the same issues, then lets see if their use is suspended anywhere? Israel should provdie control point as they are 100% Pfizer and sharing their data.

A friend who had a anaphylactic reaction to 2nd Moderna is still a promotor of it, so people can surprise you. Remains to be seen if Pfizer is tarred with same brush as AZ and J&J have been.
 
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Pom-DownUnder

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I don't have an issue with the information being widely reported, allowing informed choice. The USA administered 4.6 million doses of the vaccine yesterday. If they had been Oxford, up to 31 people would die from clotting as a direct result of the vaccine.

I think expecting people just accept that risk - 'take one for the team' so we can open borders - is perhaps unreasonable.
sorry but, what on EARTH are these numbers?

31 deaths from 4.6 million?

AU have come out and said 4-6 per million with 75% survival rates. (it. 1 - 1.5 deaths per million).

UK Have done OVER 20 Million doses and have had 19 deaths.

31 deaths from 4.6 million ????
 

MEL_Traveller

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sorry but, what on EARTH are these numbers?

31 deaths from 4.6 million?

AU have come out and said 4-6 per million with 75% survival rates. (it. 1 - 1.5 deaths per million).

UK Have done OVER 20 Million doses and have had 19 deaths.

31 deaths from 4.6 million ????

My error. I thought we actually had two deaths from vaccine-related clots in Australia. It is only one.

You're right that the correct figure is something like 20 people will develop clots after the vaccine, with sub-set of those dying.
 

jb747

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It's all a bit like hangovers.

When you go to bed, you feel great. When you wake up, you feel terrible. All that's changed is the sleep you had in the middle, so sleep must cause hangovers.
 

Seat0B

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jakeseven7

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It may be the carrot that is needed. I’m totally pro-vac, have no issue taking any of them, however even I am starting to think “what’s the point?”

The point will be that they will start letting people in like this to begin with and studies have shown that there is a small (but present) chance that those vaccinated could be completely asymptomatic carriers and in turn unknowingly infect others. So it will happen. Plus I’m sure some people will forge vax docs - a la India with its issues with testing docs - same deal.

That’s why they are beginning to reintroduce things like ‘Australia must be prepared to see 1000’s of cases a week’ when we start up again. But it won’t really matter because what the vaccines do very well is prevent against serious illness - which is what we need.

This is of course assuming the vaccines continue to prevent serious illness from all the mutations.
 

Gremlin

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The point will be that they will start letting people in like this to begin with and studies have shown that there is a small (but present) chance that those vaccinated could be completely asymptomatic carriers and in turn unknowingly infect others. So it will happen. Plus I’m sure some people will forge vax docs - a la India with its issues with testing docs - same deal.

That’s why they are beginning to reintroduce things like ‘Australia must be prepared to see 1000’s of cases a week’ when we start up again. But it won’t really matter because what the vaccines do very well is prevent against serious illness - which is what we need.

This is of course assuming the vaccines continue to prevent serious illness from all the mutations.
It also assumes that those who want to be vaccinated can actually be vaccinated.

Three months ago I was six months away from vaccination. Today I’m eight months away from receiving my first shot. And that’s probably a best case scenario.
 
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It also assumes that those who want to be vaccinated can actually be vaccinated.

Three months ago I was six months away from vaccination. Today I’m eight months away from receiving my first shot. And that’s probably a best case scenario.

If people are eligible for vaccination in other countries might be time to arrange a holiday, get the vax and come back to Oz afterwards. Maybe they could have flights for people who have been vaccinated and know they don't need special handling or quarantine.
 

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