Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

ethernet

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I do love a good meme even if the numbers are not quite right lol i'd happily have AZ today

View attachment 245260
0.1 percent, 0.001 in decimal form or 1/1,000 in fraction form
1 in 1,000,0000.0000010.0001%
Please note ITAA does not advertise DVT flight related deaths, cancers acquired due to increased radiation absorption during the flight, or food poisoning deaths due to bad airline/airport concession food stands.. I will go for 1 in a million, because Australias so called expert committee has not figured in pre-existing-conditions, obesity, diabetes and on contraception factors.
 

jakeseven7

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Bali is never going to be in a bubble, unless it closes itself off from the rest of Indonesia.

Agree and if Fiji enters then bubble every Australian and his dog is going to belt there... Qantas will be flying there from every port they can, Fiji Airways too and Jetstar.
 

jjonnboy

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Bali is never going to be in a bubble, unless it closes itself off from the rest of Indonesia.
They do have this advantage though;


But they have supply issues as well;

 

Seat0B

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Health Minister Greg Hunt has responded to a bombshell request from the UN Human Rights Committee for Australia to return a citizen stuck overseas.

The committee on Thursday made the request as it considers if Australia’s strict pandemic border rules breach international law, through a test case brought by stranded Aussie Jason George.

It requested Australia “facilitate and ensure” the return of Mr George, who is being represented by star human rights lawyer Geoffrey Robertson QC.

I've been following this on a relevant closed FB group. UN ruled in favour of stranded passengers.
I started a thread on this on Friday when I heard it on the radio:

Despite the tone of replies in that thread, I think it's the beginning of the public shaming of Australia for very poor behaviour towards citizens overseas. the radio interview also canvassed the potential illegality of the exit ban on A-based citizens. Finally someone other than AFFers taking note of these situations.
 

mviy

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In over 12 months there has been plenty of time to scale up hotel quarantine so that every Australian who wants to come home can come home when they want to but for whatever reason the authorities have chosen not to do that. Whether it's adding lots more quarantine hotels or adding more facilities like Howard Springs they have failed to plan and make it a priority.

Until everyone that wants to come home can come home when they want to I can't see restrictions easing to let more of those of us who need/want to travel to do so. So they either need to massively scale up hotel quarantine or find a way to permit home quarantine or both.

An issue is that the separation of powers is working against getting good outcomes. It's the Feds who stand the most to benefit from solving the international border problem, but its the states who get to decide what the hotel quarantine caps are going to be and stand the most to gain from tough border stances and setting low hotel quarantine caps.
 

Pushka

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Bali is never going to be in a bubble, unless it closes itself off from the rest of Indonesia.
Watch out for end of Ramadan in a few weeks. Unless Bali shuts down it will be carnage as people fly in from Java. We were there at that time one year, never ever again.
 

jjonnboy

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Well it depends on whether they can produce proof of their vaccinated status and whether the Australian government can trust that.
In an earlier post, I mentioned seeing Americans in Mexican travel forums, discussing the tipping required for a negative test to enable return from Mexico to USA.


This is already a significant problem and I would hope that countries formulate an appropriate strategy.

What is of more concern to me is counterfeit pharmaceuticals. There is a significant risk of easily reproducible, indestinguishable vials and packaging entering supply chains. (not just through online channels).
 

MEL_Traveller

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I started a thread on this on Friday when I heard it on the radio:

Despite the tone of replies in that thread, I think it's the beginning of the public shaming of Australia for very poor behaviour towards citizens overseas. the radio interview also canvassed the potential illegality of the exit ban on A-based citizens. Finally someone other than AFFers taking note of these situations.

I agree the exit ban may be on shaky ground. But the entry ban not so much.... until just recently.

The borders were not closed on some arbitrary basis, they were closed as a response to a pandemic, with an unvaccinated population. This is outlined in the travel bans under the Biosecurity Act.

However, things have recently changed with the start of the vaccine roll out in Australia. And of course overseas Aussies that have also been vaccinated. Those in the later group *may* have some grounds to argue that a ban on them returning is unreasonable as they present no risk.

But I think there's still some unpacking to do on the last bit... to ensure those vaccinated can't pass it on. Or that the vaccines work against new variants.
 

oznflfan

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Believe it or not, I'm not actually a tennis fan. This is more on the subject of the thread, and what may come to pass early 2022 to help us travel overseas.

If Europe and USA get under control and effectively fully open up vaccinated by Christmas (I think they will), no way in hell any (note - vaccinated of course) ranked millionaire tennis player would agree to play AO in January 2022 if they have to HQ for 14 days. So far this is only option on the board to enter Australia, even as Hunt/Scomo/Murphy said today. Don't think AO renting 200 Toorak mansions and placing ankle bracelets on them would make it any better.

Victoria bent over backwards to host AO 2021 in part to ensure continuity and not let another country 'pinch' the grand slam from under us. What do you think would happen if he took the strong approach, and Singapore/Japan/Thailand/Dubai all open and welcoming global tennis as alternative to AO?

I think they will bend and allow all tennis players in without quarantine, noting multiple tests pre and post arrival, maybe 24 hours HQ until first negative. This could be crux point, they can't treat sports stars that way and reject us after, think Mutiny on the Bounty or The Eureka Stockade for locals.
 

Ric

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However, things have recently changed with the start of the vaccine roll out in Australia. And of course overseas Aussies that have also been vaccinated. Those in the later group *may* have some grounds to argue that a ban on them returning is unreasonable as they present no risk.
Australia has used 2 vaccines, Pfizer and AZ. What if the stranded overseas Aussie got a Moderna vaccine? J & J vaccine or Sinovac or Sputnik?? How are they going to come back for home quarantine if Australia does not recognize these? And these the only ones that the stranded are able to get? It mean HQ??
 

MEL_Traveller

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Australia has used 2 vaccines, Pfizer and AZ. What if the stranded overseas Aussie got a Moderna vaccine? J & J vaccine or Sinovac or Sputnik?? How are they going to come back for home quarantine if Australia does not recognize these? And these the only ones that the stranded are able to get? It mean HQ??

I guess the TGA or the covid advisory council will determine which vaccines are likely to offer the required level of protection. I would be hoping that if reputable authorities around the world authorise vaccines that Australia will accept them too, or at least look at the evidence and then make a decision.

IIRC the Chinese are questioning the effectiveness of their own vaccines... I wonder how that will work out for the return of Chinese students?
 

Ric

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I guess the TGA or the covid advisory council will determine which vaccines are likely to offer the required level of protection. I would be hoping that if reputable authorities around the world authorise vaccines that Australia will accept them too, or at least look at the evidence and then make a decision.

IIRC the Chinese are questioning the effectiveness of their own vaccines... I wonder how that will work out for the return of Chinese students?
The question then is: When would the decision be made? There's talk that home quarantine by middle of year, so will the decision be made by then?

I think that there are reports of the Chinese vaccines referring to the efficacy? But effectiveness is in preventing serious effects when infected is quite high?
 
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hb13

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I'm not sure this UN ruling means anything? The UN is completely useless and has no power whatsoever. This story will disappear in the next few days without any actions coming from it.

As some have mentioned in this thread, it is a real shame but the very large majority of the population in Australia don't care what is happening to Aussies overseas. The government cares even less.

The borders will remain closed for at least another 2-3 years and we in the minority that are furious at this can't really do much. The home quarantine option for vaccinated travellers may be instituted, but that will not happen this year. That may begin in 2022.
 

burmans

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Considering the very low number of people who will get vaccinated due to the clotting scare, seems actually reasonable that allow vaccinated travelers to be allowed to go overseas and return with home quarantine

not like there will be 1000's willing to travel overseas with home quarantine still required and vaccination a requirement.
So over that no hurry argument and seems plenty of his previous supporters also thinking this way.
 

hb13

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If Europe and USA get under control and effectively fully open up vaccinated by Christmas (I think they will), no way in hell any (note - vaccinated of course) ranked millionaire tennis player would agree to play AO in January 2022 if they have to HQ for 14 days. So far this is only option on the board to enter Australia, even as Hunt/Scomo/Murphy said today. Don't think AO renting 200 Toorak mansions and placing ankle bracelets on them would make it any better.

Victoria bent over backwards to host AO 2021 in part to ensure continuity and not let another country 'pinch' the grand slam from under us. What do you think would happen if he took the strong approach, and Singapore/Japan/Thailand/Dubai all open and welcoming global tennis as alternative to AO?

I think they will bend and allow all tennis players in without quarantine, noting multiple tests pre and post arrival, maybe 24 hours HQ until first negative. This could be crux point, they can't treat sports stars that way and reject us after, think Mutiny on the Bounty or The Eureka Stockade for locals.

I agree with you that if other countries make it easy for tennis players/F1 stars, Australia will possibly lose those tournaments, and the government may do something like two tests before departure and 2 on arrival and maybe a 24 - 72 hr quarantine etc.

But for us common folk - I guarantee you nothing will change. Because the public couldn't care less. So politically, there will be no issue to them doing this.
 

jjonnboy

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So over that no hurry argument and seems plenty of his previous supporters also thinking this way
I agree with the best figures. They sort of look like this; Is this what you would open up to in a hurry?
 

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Kimpos

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I agree with you that if other countries make it easy for tennis players/F1 stars, Australia will possibly lose those tournaments, and the government may do something like two tests before departure and 2 on arrival and maybe a 24 - 72 hr quarantine etc.

But for us common folk - I guarantee you nothing will change. Because the public couldn't care less. So politically, there will be no issue to them doing this.
Yes and no. You have to wonder at the end game of keeping the Aus Open and F1 if the country doesn't open up to tourism- yes these events are well attended locally but were also always pushed as major tourism drawcards (side note it was a major source of annoyance to watch the AO from the US and be subjected to endless commercials urging tourists to visit Melbourne, albeit they were the same commercials used in 2019)
 

jakeseven7

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I agree with you that if other countries make it easy for tennis players/F1 stars, Australia will possibly lose those tournaments, and the government may do something like two tests before departure and 2 on arrival and maybe a 24 - 72 hr quarantine etc.

But for us common folk - I guarantee you nothing will change. Because the public couldn't care less. So politically, there will be no issue to them doing this.

Agree - forget all the ranting on here, just take a quick read of the thousands and thousands of comments on any mainstream news articles on this, a vast majority of people don’t care and have been whipped into such a state of fear by our premiers and Feds that there is zero tolerance for the virus.

The only thing what will change that is mass vaccination and people glossing over the fact that that vaccinated people CAN still transmit the virus and it may not work at the same effectiveness rate on all the variants. Fingers crossed no one really gets that!

The governments broad plan quite clearly is to get enough* of us vaccinated so we feel ‘safe’ and not care as the case numbers climb from any relaxation in border restrictions.

* We used to think this was just the vulnerable but from the way that the polls cough sorry health advice is shaping up it will be far far more people now...
 

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