Login Now to remove this and all advertisements (GOLD and SILVER members)
Not a member? Register Now for free

Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

MEL_Traveller

Enthusiast
Joined
Apr 27, 2005
Messages
21,789
Solutions
2
Points
1,820
If the ban leaving the country is for health grounds... how can they be letting in students?

How is it some citizens and PR holders - those that have been out of Australia for more than half of the previous 12 months - effectively have a revolving pass to leave and enter Australia? With no restrictions other than quarantine.

We need clear and transparent guidelines, and preferably, equality for everyone.
 

oznflfan

Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2020
Messages
124
Points
190
If the ban leaving the country is for health grounds... how can they be letting in students?

How is it some citizens and PR holders - those that have been out of Australia for more than half of the previous 12 months - effectively have a revolving pass to leave and enter Australia? With no restrictions other than quarantine.

We need clear and transparent guidelines, and preferably, equality for everyone.
MONEY TALKS
 
Now with contactless delivery, shop online to get drinks delivered to your door or pick up in-store in 30 minutes. Lowest Liquor Price Guarantee. Biggest Range.

Recommended by the Australian Frequent Flyer

jakeseven7

Established Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Messages
4,288
Points
840
Don’t know if anyone is watching Insiders, they interviewed the Minister for Science Tech and Industry talking about vaccine production timelines. Basically if it’s protein based - no issue, but anything else requires 9-12 month lead time to begin manufacturing.... this is the first time the government has disclosed this...
 

antycbr

Active Member
Joined
Nov 9, 2009
Messages
875
Points
475
Qantas
Bronze
Virgin
Platinum
Don’t know if anyone is watching Insiders, they interviewed the Minister for Science Tech and Industry talking about vaccine production timelines. Basically if it’s protein based - no issue, but anything else requires 9-12 month lead time to begin manufacturing.... this is the first time the government has disclosed this...
Assuming also that it is safe and effective. We really need to start planning for multiple vaccine scenarios and timelines soon.
 

MEL_Traveller

Enthusiast
Joined
Apr 27, 2005
Messages
21,789
Solutions
2
Points
1,820
Assuming also that it is safe and effective. We really need to start planning for multiple vaccine scenarios and timelines soon.

Other countries have started production - taking the risk that if a particular vaccine doesn't pass trials, the money is lost. To me a billion dollars to start advance production doesn't seem a high price given (a) the amount of money that's already been spent on covid, and (b) keeping the economy closed for another 9-12 months if they only start production once a vaccine has passed trials.
 

ayushamity

Intern
Joined
Sep 20, 2020
Messages
92
Points
90
Other countries have started production

But Australia does not have any contracts in place for onshore production except the Oxford Vaccine.

I.e. if the Moderna vaccine is approved, they will initially get 3% for population under COVAX agreement and then have to buy the rest. The country manufacturing will prioritize its own population first so Australia will only get the vaccine later on and will be bottom of the list.

Same goes for the Pfizer vaccine which Australia hasn't even done any enquiries on.

I am sorry to say but if we are waiting around for a vaccine for international travel, that will be late 2021. The hope is that some travel bubbles form independent of a vaccine
 

MEL_Traveller

Enthusiast
Joined
Apr 27, 2005
Messages
21,789
Solutions
2
Points
1,820
But Australia does not have any contracts in place for onshore production except the Oxford Vaccine.

And if that is the case... that's the problem! All this talk about opening up the economy, but we haven't spent the $1b on spreading the risk across multiple vaccines.
 

oz_mark

Enthusiast
Joined
Jun 30, 2002
Messages
18,668
Solutions
1
Points
1,425
But Australia does not have any contracts in place for onshore production except the Oxford Vaccine.

I.e. if the Moderna vaccine is approved, they will initially get 3% for population under COVAX agreement and then have to buy the rest. The country manufacturing will prioritize its own population first so Australia will only get the vaccine later on and will be bottom of the list.

Same goes for the Pfizer vaccine which Australia hasn't even done any enquiries on.

The Pfizer vaccine has some not insignificant hurdles to overcome in distribution logistics. I am sure they will be solved if needs be, but probably has figured in people thinking.
 

ayushamity

Intern
Joined
Sep 20, 2020
Messages
92
Points
90
And if that is the case...

That IS the case! Oxford vax likely approval Dec, and Australia has pre ordered about 3 m doses immediately to come in January. These 3 m doses have actually already been produced but just not flown in yet. Once approved, we will have access immediately to 3 m doses for frontline/vulnerable wokers and will start on shore production in January in Melbourne.

They reckon maybe 2 months to scale up to 20 m doses. We are a bit lucky that we dont have a large population.
 

jakeseven7

Established Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Messages
4,288
Points
840
That IS the case! Oxford vax likely approval Dec, and Australia has pre ordered about 3 m doses immediately to come in January. These 3 m doses have actually already been produced but just not flown in yet. Once approved, we will have access immediately to 3 m doses for frontline/vulnerable wokers and will start on shore production in January in Melbourne.

They reckon maybe 2 months to scale up to 20 m doses. We are a bit lucky that we dont have a large population.

It feels like we have hedged our bets heavily let’s hope it pans out or international (save for safe bubbles) could well be pushed far into 2022....
 

CityRail

Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2019
Messages
276
Points
200
Qantas
Bronze
Virgin
Gold
That IS the case! Oxford vax likely approval Dec, and Australia has pre ordered about 3 m doses immediately to come in January. These 3 m doses have actually already been produced but just not flown in yet. Once approved, we will have access immediately to 3 m doses for frontline/vulnerable wokers and will start on shore production in January in Melbourne.

They reckon maybe 2 months to scale up to 20 m doses. We are a bit lucky that we dont have a large population.

So that means we might be able to travel further abroad for Easter 2021 then, aren't we?
Assuming those who wish to be vaccinated will be vaccinated by then?
 

dajop

Enthusiast
Joined
Jul 1, 2002
Messages
11,495
Solutions
2
Points
1,195
Back in the topic of international travel I notice another particular country, with about 1/5th the population of Australia, has been taking about 2500 arrivals in hotel quarantine a week (the same as Sydney was under their cap before it was recently lifted) through just one city which has a population smaller than both Brisbane and Perth.

How come they can manage it?


(although I couldn’t find their cap, which will be implemented in November - where pax have to have a hotel voucher to board a flight).
 

trevella

Member
Joined
Feb 11, 2020
Messages
164
Points
190
So that means we might be able to travel further abroad for Easter 2021 then, aren't we?
Assuming those who wish to be vaccinated will be vaccinated by then?

If you don’t want to get vaccinated, then while you might be allowed to leave, you won’t be permitted to travel in anything like normal fashion by Christmas 2021, let alone Easter.
 

CityRail

Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2019
Messages
276
Points
200
Qantas
Bronze
Virgin
Gold
Only if the vaccine works. That is a big gamble

Not anymore. Pfizer, Moderna and Oxford vaccine are reportedly to commence vaccination before Christmas, as news leaked from the UK and US media. I think they should be relatively confidents that they works so that they will expect such vaccination programs will be in place.

Note the Oxford vaccine requires 2 jabs for those who wish to be vaccinated, with each 28 days apart. So to start the protective effect we might need to wait until Australia Day the latest for those at high risk.
 

Community Statistics

Threads
86,591
Messages
2,099,456
Members
53,905
Latest member
kinkyquokka
Top