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Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

ayushamity

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I don't know why but since watching the presser yesterday, I have lost all hope of international travel opening up anytime before late next year.

The majority of Aussies want borders closed so that they can resume a normal life in Australia. And they don't care if a minority are struggling emotionally. And politics always favour the majority.

Hence, I now seriously think that Australia will not look at international borders as there is no incentive to do so.
 

jgreenspoon

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Hence, I now seriously think that Australia will not look at international borders as there is no incentive to do so.
I think the thousands of Australians employed in the hotels, shops and other tourism related businesses would disagree.
While regional travel might be doing well, it’s quite depressing for example to see the ghost town that is the front strip of restaurants along circular quay, not to mention the empty hotels through the rocks. I stayed at one a few weeks ago and it was horribly eerie...

The Prime Minister is of the US president breed and will always have jobs / $ leading his thoughts no matter what he projects via the media.

in the end though it’s all hinging on a vaccine surely and any speculation is pointless without that wondrous jab
 

jakeseven7

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I think other than Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Thailand should be in consideration of opening by Christmas too.

Love your eternal optimism but the PM was crystal clear after National Cabinet - all domestic borders (except probably WA) open by Xmas, expansion of NZ bubble after that then other safe countries after that. All those ‘after that’s’ mean probably more like Q1/2 next year for any international travel bubbles at the very earliest I’m afraid....

The only thing that will make international bubbles open faster is if the domestic borders open faster AND we prove we can manage it without unmanageable outbreaks and hysterical snap border closure decisions when the inevitable cases start popping up around the place....

While regional travel might be doing well, it’s quite depressing for example to see the ghost town that is the front strip of restaurants along circular quay, not to mention the empty hotels through the rocks. I stayed at one a few weeks ago and it was horribly eerie...

Same up here in QLD - it’s a ghost town in any areas with high hotel concentrations because we are still cut off from our two biggest markets - NSW and VIC on top of international. But it was heartening to hear all agreed (except probably WA) to have borders open by Christmas - that will inject a huge boost to these areas.

And if NZ goes bilateral early next year that is a big deal - they are our biggest international tourist market as well.
 

oznflfan

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I don't know why but since watching the presser yesterday, I have lost all hope of international travel opening up anytime before late next year.

The majority of Aussies want borders closed so that they can resume a normal life in Australia. And they don't care if a minority are struggling emotionally. And politics always favour the majority.

Hence, I now seriously think that Australia will not look at international borders as there is no incentive to do so.

Absolutely agree with you, no benefit in allowing us out, in fact in politician's warped minds, absolute benefit to keeping us caged in. By keeping us in, we will spend our big tourist dollars in our own state!. Instead of spending $8,000 going to Europe for three weeks, we will spend that here. In reality, and this really only holds for first year as we want to 'support' our state tourism breathren, and we will maybe spend $2,000 for a week and a half. After that (now) we will hold onto our pennies for the future.

I replaced my planned big trip that I would have spent $6,000 over 2 weeks, and instead holidays in my state and spent around $800 in 1 week. I won't be doing that again.

Whilst they don't need us to leave, they NEED foreigners and tourists to come her, for:
IMMIGRATION - we don't grow we die.
STUDENTS - our universities are now based on being funded big time by foreign students, no foreign students long term universities will close.
TOURISM - you cannot replace international spend with locals lifting, refer above.

I'm being selfish, I know, in that I cannot holiday domestically and feel I have had a holiday, doesn't matter where I go. I'm prepared to wait to go on holidays, but I would like a timeframe so I can plan. Right now planning is like nothingness. May go quick trip somewhere maybe September next year if SE Asia opens up, if not price gouged by Qantas or whoever, otherwise July 2022 I'm off to France for a month.
 

oznflfan

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Love your eternal optimism but the PM was crystal clear after National Cabinet - all domestic borders (except probably WA) open by Xmas, expansion of NZ bubble after that then other safe countries after that. All those ‘after that’s’ mean probably more like Q1/2 next year for any international travel bubbles at the very earliest I’m afraid....

The only thing that will make international bubbles open faster is if the domestic borders open faster AND we prove we can manage it without unmanageable outbreaks and hysterical snap border closure decisions when the inevitable cases start popping up around the place....



Same up here in QLD - it’s a ghost town in any areas with high hotel concentrations because we are still cut off from our two biggest markets - NSW and VIC on top of international. But it was heartening to hear all agreed (except probably WA) to have borders open by Christmas - that will inject a huge boost to these areas.

And if NZ goes bilateral early next year that is a big deal - they are our biggest international tourist market as well.
The Prime Minister used the term 'many, many months from now' as well.

If said months from now - maybe 3 at best
If he said many months from now - maybe 6 at best?
He said many, many months from now - I count that term as at least 10 months at best.

Issue with your fine state, is your premier may open borders by Christmas, then 2 cases in NSW or VIC and she shuts them tight again for months on end, and your back talking about trying to get a winter tourism 2021 season in íf only she lets NSW and VIC in'.
 

ayushamity

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Whilst they don't need us to leave, they NEED foreigners and tourists to come her, for:
IMMIGRATION - we don't grow we die.
STUDENTS - our universities are now based on being funded big time by foreign students, no foreign students long term universities will close.
TOURISM - you cannot replace international spend with locals lifting, refer above.

I think they would have to let Australians out first before letting foreigners in. If they let students in without easing travel ban, there will be outrage
 

Pushka

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The only thing that will make international bubbles open faster is if the domestic borders open faster AND we prove we can manage it without unmanageable outbreaks and hysterical snap border closure decisions when the inevitable cases start popping up around the place....
And that is the issue for me. I don't yet trust all states to manage an outbreak effectively nor deal objectively with hotspots as they occur. I do think international borders will be released once they work out effective quarantine procedures on return.
Post automatically merged:

I think they would have to let Australians out first before letting foreigners in. If they let students in without easing travel ban, there will be outrage
That is going to happen next month in Adelaide. All approved and ready to go now.
 

oznflfan

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I think they would have to let Australians out first before letting foreigners in. If they let students in without easing travel ban, there will be outrage
Disagree, at best it will be same time, at worst, we will have 6 months of letting foreign students dribble in, before we may be allowed out.

Hey, they are doing exactly what you think they won't do now - letting NZ in, but not us out (I realise portion of this is on NZ not allowing us in, but Jacinda won here election so that mindset will change shortly). Dollars to donuts Scomo doesn't change his parole date of 17th Dec though for us to leave.
 

blackcat20

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i was surprised by this so googled and indeed there is a poll showing 60% of aussies want the international borders to stay closed.

However... I guess it depends on the question in the poll... if I asked 'do you support separating families from loved ones over Christmas' or 'do you agree vulnerable Australians should be prevented from coming home' the answer might have been different.
I've seen a lot of people expressing the opinion that no one should be allowed in, not even Australians. Too busy enjoying their 'covid free' state to want the risk, even if it means others miss out
 

Pushka

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I've seen a lot of people expressing the opinion that no one should be allowed in, not even Australians. Too busy enjoying their 'covid free' state to want the risk, even if it means others miss out
That attitude has been driving me crazy. Bloody doona. Stay under them if you want but that can’t last.
 

jakeseven7

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And that is the issue for me. I don't yet trust all states to manage an outbreak effectively nor deal objectively with hotspots as they occur.

Of most concern is the states that haven’t really been ‘tested’ (luckily for them in a way) like NT, Tassie, WA and SA.

There is real worry and questions being asked for example about WA’s ability to respond to an outbreak and perhaps this is the real reason they are being left out...

But the thing is for a bilateral international travel bubble to really work there has to at least be a majority of states clustered together and opened, even if WA is left behind.

NZ will clearly be first but honestly would not be surprised if it was pushed until next year although there will be ALOT of ‘home for Christmas’ push with families v Ardern....
 

Pushka

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Of most concern is the states that haven’t really been ‘tested’ (luckily for them in a way) like NT, Tassie, WA and SA.

There is real worry and questions being asked for example about WA’s ability to respond to an outbreak and perhaps this is the real reason they are being left out...

But the thing is for a bilateral international travel bubble to really work there has to at least be a majority of states clustered together and opened, even if WA is left behind.

NZ will clearly be first but honestly would not be surprised if it was pushed until next year although there will be ALOT of ‘home for Christmas’ push with families v Ardern....
The test is a curious issue. SA had a Barossa Valley cluster way back. They shut down Barossa Valley. Tested everyone pretty much. Controlled it completely and this was back in April. A similar issue in a high school maybe August? Quarantined over 1000 people of ethnic diversity and got their community leaders involved at the beginning. Put into hotel iso another 90 close contacts. They controlled the baggage handlers spread in late March. I think SA are up for it. WA seems a worry.
 
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CityRail

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I've seen a lot of people expressing the opinion that no one should be allowed in, not even Australians. Too busy enjoying their 'covid free' state to want the risk, even if it means others miss out

I think Australia cannot be cut off from the rest of the world for too long, at the end we rely on tourists and international students for a full recovery of the economy, and it appears that Scomo wants to open it as soon as possible so that the Liberals can replicate the success Labor did during the GFC.

Not allowing anyone in, even Australians to maintain a 'COVID free' state is selfish on the other spectrum and I don't think it should be endorsed, Australians even they are abroad, are still part of our family and we should allow them to be back in a manageable way.

I think the two-way bubble with NZ is possible since there will be a lot of NZers stranded in Australia who long to go home by Christmas, especially from COVID-safe states like NSW, Qld, SA, Tas etc. As the new NZ government is yet to select its cabinet ministers, I think we should wait until there's a cabinet then negotiations with NZ can resume and hopefully open in time for December.

With international travel, vaccine will be available from December 2020, therefore as more people are getting vaccinated, the virus will start to subside and borders could be able to reopen to bubble countries first in time for summer holidays then possibly with higher risk countries in Spring next year.
 

drron

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Of most concern is the states that haven’t really been ‘tested’ (luckily for them in a way) like NT, Tassie, WA and SA.

There is real worry and questions being asked for example about WA’s ability to respond to an outbreak and perhaps this is the real reason they are being left out...

But the thing is for a bilateral international travel bubble to really work there has to at least be a majority of states clustered together and opened, even if WA is left behind.

NZ will clearly be first but honestly would not be surprised if it was pushed until next year although there will be ALOT of ‘home for Christmas’ push with families v Ardern....
Not quite true.Tassie certainly got tested with over half of their cases due to the NWRH hospital cluster.And they controlled it well.
The North West of Tasmania was shut down with police roadblocks on the major roads out.
Only 2 patients got their Covid in an aged care facility and neither died.
There were several Covid positive cases in the NWRH when it closed-all elderly.Despite that several survived when they were all transferred to the Mersey Hospital which doesn't have an ICU.
 

ayushamity

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With international travel, vaccine will be available from December 2020

December 2020 ? I wish!

December Approval of Oxford vaccine means Australian maybe get a handful of doses by Jan 2021 for front line workers. Then it takes 2 to3 months to mass manufacture 20 m doses so vaccinations start from about April 2021.

I think if we are relying on vaccine to start international travel, that will be middle of next year. Just hoping some travel opens prior to vaccine
 

dajop

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I think if we are relying on vaccine to start international travel, that will be middle of next year. Just hoping some travel opens prior to vaccine

It's really hard to see positive progress on risk. Or will vaccines be an opportunity for politicians to wash their hands of it?

No states will yet tolerate the risk of people coming into their states from Regional Vic (one territory will soon it seems), which has 2 well controlled outbreaks in the last month, and no cases anywhere else. How on earth are politicians going to allow even vaccinated people travel with a vaccine that is only partially effective (even 90%, that leaves 10% of travellers who could bring in the virus)?
 

antycbr

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The Qld election will be long gone. And we seem to be ignoring what WA does and moving on regardless. So yes.
I've had to put a few WA friends back in their place recently, when they suggested that WA could negotiate a two-way bubble with NZ.

Had to remind them that they are not a soverign state and cannot negotiate international air services agreements, and there is no way that the Commonwealth will let them have this while denying Australians the right to enter the state.
 

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