Wind Generation and the Electricity Grid

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Yesterday we were told not to use electricity unless essential. Turn off washing machines, dishwashers yada yada. Power could not be guaranteed. Why? It was hot and there was a fire at Torrens power station. That's all.

It is Mad March here. V8 race. Fringe Festival. Arts Festival.

There is always an excuse. Too hot. Lack of wind. Too much wind. A fire. And all in the last 3 months. Never been like this before in the history of SA. So much for progress.

There is no provision in our electricity supply for emergency. It's like spending all your money and then the fridge breaks down. Screwed.

In our case our relentless drive to exceed the national target of renewables has been pursued with no thought for contingency.

People and businesses here are spending tens of thousands of dollars on generators. Which are diesel or gas driven. Dirty. Yet the Govt is claiming SA is green. What a furphy. While the Govt is being renewable all they are doing is forcing others to revert to non green measures to back them up. While our premier flies in a plane to Paris to tell the world how good SA is. Rot.

To a certain extent the SA Govt is powerless (no pun intended) as the Fed Govt controls the national electricity market. Neither party at the Fed level wishes to cut off the stream of gold from their donors who are quite happy to be making money at the consumers' expense, but then again neither are some states that still own the power plants and are using them to rort the system and drive prices up for their own 'electricity tax'.

With total demand in most states now back to the levels of the early 2000s or even late 1990s many generators had been losing money and then the mis-information campaign began post the wind knocking down the transmission towers.
NEMO Actual v forecasts.jpg

More recently total demand has been rising again but that is almost totally due to the surge in power required by the Qld LNG plants. Take that out of the equation and SA, Vic, ACT, Tas, NSW, WA and Qld ex LNG are declining in power demand.

Back to yesterday in SA..

If it wasn't for the wind supplying 374MW yesterday afternoon then you would have been blacked out.

The Pelican Point gas-fired plant was only generating at 40% capacity when the fire began and cut it off.

Totally coincidentally - the brown coal plant owned by the same group went to max generation in the La Trobe valley at the new much higher prices. Seems there's a silver (more like gold) lining for every dark cloud.

At least for the duopoly owners that is.

In Qld with next to no wind or commercial PV - they have had more high price events (price per MWh > $5000) this year than SA and Victoria combined.

Seems the two State Govt owned generators are making tens of millions in extra 'electricity taxes' which will then make the State Budget look great for next year's election.

Just a coincidence of course.

Talking directly with these 'players' their response is 'we are just abiding by the rules, our bonuses are linked to how much we make'.

And it is true, just like how power prices get cheaper per KWh the more you use (as a residential dwelling) yet the State Govts say they want people to save power. Strange they penalise the households who use less power.

A study done in 2015 found that pensioners on average paid 27-34% more than the average household. Why - the daily access charge divided by KWh used per day is a much larger figure the less you use.

We're not pensioners but as an example with our family's (none State subsidised) solar panels with 10 cent FIT we use around 4-5KWH from the grid a day and supply the grid with around 5-6KWh a day.

So the effective cost per KWh used = daily access fee / KWh used + KWh cost
= 0.96/4 + 29.5
= 53.5 cents per KWh.

I know of pensioners who use 4 to 5 KWh a day so that's what it is costing them.

I also have friends (with kids), with a pool, air con, etc etc who use over 38 KWh/day.

Their effective per KWh used = daily access fee / KWh used + KWh cost
= 0.96/39 + 23.7 (= weighted avg of prices they pay)
= 26.2 cents per KWh

So pensioners and people with solar panels are being penalised for the benefit of households/aluminum smelters.

Did you read the article about Rio cutting Aluminum production as the 15% of power they don't have under contract is 'too expensive' to make any money using. However the 85% they have under long term contract at prices 1/10th the residential rate sees them making $12m on the other 85%.

The effective subsidy from the tax payer (or other electricity users) is around $180m for that 85% contract per year at the price levels for year-to-date.
 
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The renewable energy targets are unrealistic though and we aren't spending money on back up strategies.
 
Economist says we have to buy back the electricity transmission networks to lower prices and prevent blackouts.

A publicly owned electricity grid is the only way to put a cap on costs, keep energy competitive and solve the country's energy crisis, according to an economics expert.

He argues without the need to generate private rates of return, public ownership of the electricity grid would push costs down, leading to cheaper prices for consumers.
"It's about the failure of the electricity network as a whole to deliver the kind of outcomes that have been promised for the last 25 years or so," Professor Quiggin said.

He pointed to the South Australian blackout, the problems with loss of power at the Portland aluminium smelter, and the failure of Basslink which links Tasmania to Victoria as examples.
"The problem is greatly exacerbated by disputes between the distributors in Tasmania, the owners of Basslink — largely the Singapore Government — and then failure to regulate and handle the whole business properly," Professor Quiggin said.

"The national review is on [the] way to tweak the system, but I think we've seen those tweaks extensively over the past few years.
"Of course in telecommunications we've had to go back to a publicly-owned national broadband network because of the failure of privatisation again to delivery the goods."

Return to public ownership of national electricity grid would reduce costs, says economist - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
 
A bit of sleuthing by a consultant on the 5 minute by 5 minute power situation in SA illustrates yet one more of those marvelous coincidences that fortuitously saw the owner of Pelican Point able to max profits at its mammoth brown coal plant while its Pelican point gas plant went from producing 218MW to zero within bare minutes/seconds of the problems at the Torrens gas power station happening.

A little like winning lotto three draws in a row some say.

The table shows the situation in 5 minutes steps.

2017 03 03 SA Power out 1.jpg
2017 03 03 SA Power out 2.jpg
2017 03 03 SA Power out 3.jpg

What indeed?

Who will own up to shutting down demand for 300MW around 3.05 pm without any apparent warning being given to the market operator?

Hmm, large power user in SA?

Or did someone forget to follow the rules?
 
Chinese and Singapore using their profits from electricity in Victoria to keep power prices low in their countries.

Recent blackouts in South Australia too were attributed to the decisions of the private operator to withhold supply in in the face of high prices rather than a failure of sustainable power generation.
The inquiry also heard that both the Singapore and Chinese Governments, as majority owners of distribution companies in Victoria, have stipulated that the purpose of owning Victoria’s assets is to use the profits to subsidise their national networks, helping keep cost of electricity low in China and Singapore.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-how-privatisation-is-failing-our-communities
 
I'm just surprised he knew about it. Maybe he thinks its 'South Austria'.

Maybe he could get it built in 100 days - it all depends on what your definition of 100 days is, if they don't start the clock until after there is 100 days minimum of political bunfighting between 3 levels of government, zero days legal oversight or examination of the legal contracts for the work to be done, a 100 day community consultation period followed by 100 days of intergovernmental working groups another 100 days or so to purchase and re-zone the land, and thats before you bring in the environmental and OHS processes and thats assuming every vested intereset everywhere dosen't take anything to the high court ever - before you turn the first sod/pour the first bit of concrete.

So yes - by shipping it all in from Nevada to South Australia and overriding every established government approval proccess and oversight ever legislated, then yes it could be done in less than 100 days. But if done within the 100 day timeframe then Elon Musk could charge for the installation of the 100MW installation. Funnily enough the price of this installation hasn't been mentioned yet.....nor the terms of the contract or indeed the ownership of the facility.

Thats a Twitter thought bubble thats potentially morphed into a state government energy policy right there, what could possibly go wrong?
 

Yes brilliant. Isn't this a slap in the face for President Trumble and the no-RET lobby. Time they stopped the politics and took up the offer or something similar. SA would welcome it.

"According to figures quoted by Mr Musk, the SA system would cost $33.2 million. Shipping, taxes and installation costs would be extra. His comments, via Twitter, were prompted by a challenge from fellow tech-billionaire, Australian Mike Cannon-Brookes."
 
A study done in 2015 found that pensioners on average paid 27-34% more than the average household. Why - the daily access charge divided by KWh used per day is a much larger figure the less you use.
.

And I'm sure those same pensioners pay more for water in $/L and telephony in $/call.

Why - in all of these networks a substantial costs is in the maintenance of the network, or poles and wires - which is what the daily access charge, or monthly telephone line rental is there to cover.

--

As for SA and Tesla (or otherwise) batteries.
I'd much prefer a 'cleaner' pumped hydro solution that just needs wind/solar powering a pumping station to shift water up hill when power is cheap, and then used as hydro power when the demand is there.

Versus all the chemicals and expensive metals that go into battery packs that have a limited life span and questionable recyclability.

And some laws and stiff fines to stop players 'gaming' the power system by reducing supply.
 
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I understand battery storage provides backup power, but if the facility still requires powerlines to remain standing in a storm doesn't this have the same flaw as what caused the blackout?

A better system would be substations with battery storage or even better, a rebate on getting battery storage installed in homes.
 
I'm just surprised he knew about it. Maybe he thinks its 'South Austria'.

Is that the Austria that gets one third of its power from renewables, or an "Alternative Facts Austria" where that could not possibly happen because renewable energy is a known left-wing plot?
 
Austria is a bit like South Australia.

Over the summer it has plenty of renewable energy - almost all of it from hydro.
Over winter they buy in from the European grid
 
Elon Musk offering to solve SA power needs.

On Friday, the billionaire tech entrepreneur said energy storage could solve the state's electricity problems with a battery farm, and work could be completed within 100 days, or it would be free.

https://www.theguardian.com/technol...stralia-power-network-in-100-days-or-its-free

I see that the Greens and others are falling over themselves about this. I'm sure they are happy to waive the standard requirements for permits, Environmental assessments, public consultation and the like because, after all its battery storage :rolleyes: . And they won't mind that the batteries are produced at enormous energy expense and uses materials produced by the wicked mining industry. And they won't mind that the proponent is a rich guy at the head of a multinational corporation. Greens just love rich people - like the greenie millionaire who gave them the biggest single political donation in the last Tas election.

Sure, just waive the whole thing through in 100 days. What could possibly go wrong?

Here in Tasmania we have had massive battery storage facilities for over 50 years. We call them hydro dams. Store water and hold it as potential energy and release that energy on demand when its needed. It worked well until the Carbon Tax and its profit generating capacity came along and we damn near ran out of water and had to turn to diesel generators to keep the lights on, when suddenly we also couldn't draw on Victoria's coal generated power.

But of course the 'hydro' type of battery storage, indeed this whole type of renewable energy is condemned by the Greens and here in Tas some are still fighting for at least one of the large hydro impoundments to be emptied.
 
Some very informative graphs (based on ABS data and other Govt sources) in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ut&utm_term=213512&subid=12589455&CMP=ema_632
<snip>?

I enjoy reading your long, detailed posts on this topic. (BTW I used to run a (small!) ASX listed renewable energy company :) ) But I reckon I can be a lot more succinct.

If you shut down base load (eg coal fired) power stations and don't replace them with other base load capacity, and you then rely on intermittent energy generators such as wind and solar, you are going to end up short of power.

Did I miss anything?
 
Great summary RooFlyer....I had been thinking that over the last few years but the conversation seemed to be hijacked. All we have done is lowered our electricity use on our many bed sits and business premises because we could.
 
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I enjoy reading your long, detailed posts on this topic. (BTW I used to run a (small!) ASX listed renewable energy company :) ) But I reckon I can be a lot more succinct.

If you shut down base load (eg coal fired) power stations and don't replace them with other base load capacity, and you then rely on intermittent energy generators such as wind and solar, you are going to end up short of power.

Did I miss anything?


Oops, I did miss something. Let me re-do it:

If you shut down base load (eg coal fired) power stations and don't replace them with other base load capacity, and you then rely on intermittent energy generators such as wind and solar, you are going to end up short of power and its going to cost a lot more.
 
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