Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[MEL_Traveller]

What are the "bigger problems to face"? Australia to get dragged into WW3?

Little to no fuel i would have thought!

 

[drcam]

I'll be in China from next week through May.
I wonder if China has enough reserves of fuel on its own.

 

[elanshin]

I'll be in China from next week through May.
I wonder if China has enough reserves of fuel on its own.

China currently has no problems. In fact multiple chinese tankers have gone through the strait since the war has began (India also just got their first tanker through and more for them are sailing right now). The strait is not closed for everyone.

 

[Quickstatus]

In fact multiple chinese tankers have gone through the strait since the war has began

Which means the Strait of Hormuz is not mined.

 

[FlyingKangaroo]

Only a small percentage of oil imported into China comes from Iran, while nearly half comes from other Middle Eastern countries most of which are unable to export much if anything at the moment, so China will certainly have problems, and much more so than places like the US that import far less from the region. Some countries will have it even worse (like Japan), but China certainly has a vested interest in getting the Strait reopened, and not just to get the price back down for oil overall.

This shows the origin of China's 2024 oil imports:

 

[Pushka]

Thoughts on China blocking export of Aviation fuel to Australia?

 

[dajop]

If fuel runs out there will be far far far bigger problems than planes refueling

And fuel isn't the only problem. Disruption of fertilizer supply chain (some reports suggest 1/3 of fertilizer that is shipped by sea passes through Straits of Hormuz) can also significantly disrupt food production.

 

[FlyingKangaroo]

And fuel isn't the only problem. Disruption of fertilizer supply chain (some reports suggest 1/3 of fertilizer that is shipped by sea passes through Straits of Hormuz) can also significantly disrupt food production.

Particularly awful timing as right now is exactly when the Northern Hemisphere needs it as spring arrives.

 

[jase05]

If fuel runs out there will be far far far bigger problems than planes refueling

Yes, not sure how China will get all of our crucial minerals and coal when we can’t dig them up.

We are already seeing air freight stuck in warehouses in Europe and told that delays of 6-8 weeks even at this stage.

 

[Pushka]

Yes, not sure how China will get all of our crucial minerals and coal when we can’t dig them up.

We are already seeing air freight stuck in warehouses in Europe and told that delays of 6-8 weeks even at this stage.

It's a vicious circle now.

 

[pmdg7444]

reports coming that China is halting exports....32% of our jet fuel imports from there and suggestions other countries would follow suit

if so, expect severe rationing, complete disruption to not just international aviation activity, but also domestic....

Anyone else feeling precarious booking travel for July school holidays/winter?

 

[JackMiles]

I have flights booked for late April that I'm not so confident about.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

reports coming that China is halting exports....32% of our jet fuel imports from there and suggestions other countries would follow suit

if so, expect severe rationing, complete disruption to not just international aviation activity, but also domestic....

Anyone else feeling precarious booking travel for July school holidays/winter?

There shouldn’t be any issue booking the travel. I just might not book non-refundable hotels and ancillaries.

If you go you go, if you can’t, you can’t. No loss if you ‘self insure’ with refundable hotel bookings.

If you see a good fare now, book it.

 

[markis10]

Just because we have previously sourced fuel from a country does not mean it’s the only supply, just the cheapest. In fact China is a very small supplier by comparison to the US as far as exports go, with the US and India able to fill any void we have after domestic production.

 

[Warragul]

I'll be in China from next week through May.
I wonder if China has enough reserves of fuel on its own.

China has 3-4 months supply (of oil) according to some news sites - Bloomberg. Reuters. They bought up big when the price was apparently low in the last few months.

 

[I love to travel]

Oh well, at least we had experience in COVID of not being able to travel so won't be such a culture shock if it happens again

 

[CaptJCool]

We take it all for granted
Until we don’t

As frequent flyers are we willing to make do with less ?
Airlines could put 100% occupancy on planes instead of 75%

 

[Pushka]

Oh well, at least we had experience in COVID of not being able to travel so won't be such a culture shock if it happens again

I'm getting too old to be philosophical now. Running out of time. Two years between seeing immediate family is too long.

 

[Saab34]

QF has significant financial commitments due in the coming years. A year or two of deflated earnings (oil aftermath) if it drags on won’t be kind.