Even if domestic travel restrictions are lifted, PRE-ANTIVIRAL and PRE-VACCINE I think its fair to assume demand will still be quite soft.
I think the government is letting VA go right to the edge and perhaps over it before they do anything, which is probably appropriate.
In a soft demand environment, there may actually only be enough to go around for one - default of course this will be QF.
And VA is simply not too big to fail.
I'm beginning to now come to terms with there is a very good chance VA will not come through this and the government is probably realizing now that perhaps for the next 2 years or so they don't actually need 2 carrier groups. So why shell out money propping up both? Supporting the stronger player with the largest domestic reach - and ability to crank up international when required, and leave a second player to enter in a few years might make sense...
I sense the government is going to let VA go the wall, and then decide what they want to do....