Greg Hunt has recently announced that we have delivered over 201,000 vaccines to people in Australia, yesterday. That's pretty massive at the equivalent of 1.4M for 7 days! This is 5.5% of the Total Population in a week, and that's without the walk-ups, the pharmacies and having AZ ready to go in the mass vax hubs (NSW only?), all of which are only just getting underway now / very soon.
Some back of the envelope calculations, and not even allowing for that gearing up in delivery and the boost to PZ that's meant to be coming, suggests that it would be quite possible to fully vaccinate 80% of the total population before the year is out; not just to offer them all a first shot. Timing of shots aside, and also ignoring hesitancy or brand preference, I estimate it would take about 18.5 weeks to deliver the necessary 34 million doses to do this.
Numbers (based off SMH vax tracker), for those who wish to play at home:
Total Population = 25,693,059 / and 80% of Total Pop. = 20,554,447
Total People Fully Vaccinated (at today) = 3,544,484
Total People with 1st dose only (at today) =8,049,282
Total doses remaining to be delivered in arms* = 34,019,926
Yesterday's rate of delivery = 201,000 doses / 1,407,000 per week
Weeks to deliver doses = 18.5
*This remaining doses number was calculated by taking 80% of the population, less those who are fully vaccinated, multiplied by 2 (doses), then less the number of the single dose population.
Now, very optimistic to think we'll have 80% fully vaccinated by the 1st week of December - I realise - but we need a bit of that right now, don't we?
Cheers,
Matt.