The way out of lockdowns etc in Australia

[drron]

But in the long run opening up at a faster rate should mean less businesses will close permanently.Several already gone here in Launceston.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

But in the long run opening up at a faster rate should mean less businesses will close permanently.Several already gone here in Launceston.

Well that will depend on various factors.

Certainly here in Melbourne despite the restrictions it is clear that much activity has already resumed and that more is resuming. More and more retail and other businesses have resumed.

Roads are much busier. Many business have resumed, shopping centres are busier, main streets have more bisinesses open. I would assume that in the less restricted states it will be moreso.

While offices are less busy, office-workers in general are the easiest ones to have work at home.

Google activity graphs show that all states are now busier and on the rise. Remember though that working at home will continue to keep workplaces and transit stations activity lower. In this pandemic the availability of the internet has kept a high proportion of people in work.

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-05-16_AU_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

I agree with how hard our State Governments clamped down, but they do seem now be overly cautious now in re-activating given that:

• Tests are no longer really constrained
• Contact tracing staff and resources has been expanded
• Covid Safe is operating

and so their ability to detect and then jump on any new clusters is now much improved.

Add to this that unknown community spread is very low, then you have a slower rate of re-activation that I think can safely be managed.

 

[drron]

I think you are underestimating the hit to the economy.In QLD 30000 jobs lost on the Gold Coast in April just in tourism-that is lost.Also 7,700 in Cairns.
Hardest hit all over Australia will be tourism,hospitality and retail.The industries where most young people get their start.That will cause problems for years.

 

[Pushka]

I think you are underestimating the hit to the economy.In QLD 30000 jobs lost on the Gold Coast in April just in tourism-that is lost.Also 7,700 in Cairns.
Hardest hit all over Australia will be tourism,hospitality and retail.The industries where most young people get their start.That will cause problems for years.

Tourism over winter, or lack of it in Qld, is going to kill the economy. At least in SA winter is not high season. We were thinking of flying up far north instead of the European trip but currently that has been nixed by the Govt.

 

[Anna]

currently that has been nixed by the Govt

Assuming you mean the state govt, wait 5 minutes and they will change their minds

 

[Pushka]

Assuming you mean the state govt, wait 5 minutes and they will change their minds

Indeed. Well a good thing sometimes. Flexibility? Reaction to unintended consequences? But everyone else knew there was confusion except those making the decisions.

 

[OATEK]

Therein lies a lot of the problem. Smashing tourism will have bigger impacts in different states/regions. WA has been slow to unlock because all the minerals are still going out the door (until China tightens to tourniquet). And NSW/Vic have much greater concentration of service industries that can pick up much more quickly than tourism. I consider Qld more at risk than WA for example, by keeping the border shut, and Tas is likely in the same boat. But as with all the Covid-19 issues, there is a strong element of damned if you do and damned if you don't!

 

[Hvr]

WA has been slow to unlock because

They know that the rest of the country will pour millions into their economy through the GST payments.

 

[jakeseven7]

Therein lies a lot of the problem. Smashing tourism will have bigger impacts in different states/regions. WA has been slow to unlock because all the minerals are still going out the door (until China tightens to tourniquet). And NSW/Vic have much greater concentration of service industries that can pick up much more quickly than tourism. I consider Qld more at risk than WA for example, by keeping the border shut, and Tas is likely in the same boat. But as with all the Covid-19 issues, there is a strong element of damned if you do and damned if you don't!

QLD will fold soon don’t worry - otherwise she is finished in October (state election). Her government is already lurching from corruption disasters, minister resignations and if she keeps the borders closed everyone north of Brisbane will be out of a job.

She is probably finished anyway, but not opening borders will make that a certainty:

 

[OZDUCK]

They know that the rest of the country will pour millions into their economy through the GST payments.

I don't quite understand this comment. W.A. currently receives back around 70% of the GST it generates and this is due to rise to 83% in 2026/2027. This doesn't seem like other states pouring in GST to W.A but a reasonable compromise after 2017/2018 when we were receiving 34% of the GST that was generated here . As far as I am aware W.A will still receive the lowest percentage of GST returned of that collected.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think you are underestimating the hit to the economy.In QLD 30000 jobs lost on the Gold Coast in April just in tourism-that is lost.Also 7,700 in Cairns.
Hardest hit all over Australia will be tourism,hospitality and retail.The industries where most young people get their start.That will cause problems for years.

(My bolding).

Why so? The figures would seem to support that NZ will be the country that is, and will be, more effected by the tourism drop-off in terms of % employment and income.

Tourism is very important to NZ. and is more important to New Zealand than Australia. This will be one reason why their PM was recently promoting 4 day working week in NZ to boost tourism. It is also what there is a strong push in NZ to open the border to Australia.

229,566 people were directly employed in tourism (8.4 percent of the total number of people employed in New Zealand)
4.7% of the New Zealand population.


666,000 Australians were directly employed by tourism, 5% of Australia’s workforce
2.7 % of the Australian population.

So the point you raised on tourism would seem to be the reverse and you seem to be overestimating the relative hit of tourism on the Australian economy compared to NZ.

As things reactivate NZ will be more affected by the international drop off in revenue than Australia. Their export earnings from Tourism are more important to them than it is to Australia.

Tourism is New Zealand's biggest export industry, contributing 20.4% of total exports. Tourism generates a direct annual contribution to GDP of $16.2 billion, or 5.8%, and a further indirect contribution of $11.2 billion, another 4% of New Zealand's total GDP.

From 1 July 2018 to 30 June 2019 Tourism was Australia's fourth largest exporting industry, accounting for 8.2% of Australia’s exports earnings.
666,000 Australians were directly employed by tourism, 5% of Australia’s workforce

 

[oz_mark]

Have people forgotten there is a published 3 step process that the state governments are working through, each at their own pace. At the moment, they seem to be variously in parts of step 1 and step 2.

3-step framework for a COVIDSafe Australia

This infographic outlines the Australian Government's 3-step framework to create a COVIDSafe society with new ways of living and working.

www.health.gov.au

Domestic travel is late in the piece.

 

[Hvr]

In this pandemic the availability of the internet has kept a high proportion of people in work.

I commenced WFH on 06 April. I haven't physically met my colleagues since then. Seen a couple on video meetings. Talked to everybody via phone and Teams (horrible program).

As I've mentioned elsewhere my ABB internet has performed magnificently. My work is essential and the clients I deal with are very happy to hear from me and prefer that we do all our contact via phone.

Fast (well compared to the rest of the world, not too slow) unlimited internet and unlimited phone calls means that WFH is not only viable but, for me, preferable to being in the office.

My amazing luck in commencing my current role in January means I will get through these hard times better off than when it began.

My previous near full time role (and weekend only role since Jan) has been stood down with no near time prospects of recommencing. My colleagues in that role are doing it hard and some of them have taken up new roles in call centres etc. It has been interesting to see some very senior people from that organisation doing quite junior roles and needing to change how they relate to their former subordinates.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Have people forgotten there is a published 3 step process that the state governments are working through, each at their own pace. At the moment, they seem to be variously in parts of step 1 and step 2.

3-step framework for a COVIDSafe Australia

This infographic outlines the Australian Government's 3-step framework to create a COVIDSafe society with new ways of living and working.

www.health.gov.au

Domestic travel is late in the piece.

There is but some of the political noise is hinting that interstate travel may be very late., and perhaps for some states after Level 3 and that the Level 2 considerations would already seem to be a no from some states.

Level 2: Consider allowing interstate recreational travel depending on the situation in each state and territory Refer to state and territory governments for biosecurity conditions

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Have people forgotten there is a published 3 step process that the state governments are working through, each at their own pace. At the moment, they seem to be variously in parts of step 1 and step 2.

The media is intent on stirring up confusion headlines like 'Victorian bars can open with 10 people' are followed very quickly by 'but in NSW they can have 50'. What's the point of creating confusion? Nothing. Victorians aren't in NSW, so what they are doing there is irrelevant.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

What's the point of creating confusion? Nothing.

I generally agree on that and so it should not be overemphasised.

Victorians aren't in NSW, so what they are doing there is irrelevant.

However from 1 st June Victorians can be, as we can then stay overnight (and longer) in NSW accommodation including campgrounds and selected national parks.

Also those Victorians close to, including in some cases separated only by a bridge, the border and who thus do not need to stay overnight can also take advantage of any differences in dining or drinking restrictions etc.

I often visit Murray River locations and so 1 st June is now an important date for me It will mean staying north of the river rather than south.

The Victoria/NSW boarder has long had various loopholes that people on both sides of the border have from time to time taken advantage of. Covid 19 restrictions provides a whole new set.

 

[RB]

Sadly the people in our residential area are now flocking to the playground area (climbing, swinging sliding etc). Seems the erected signs are there to ignore- shopping areas seem to be the same

 

[Pushka]

Sadly the people in our residential area are now flocking to the playground area (climbing, swinging sliding etc). Seems the erected signs are there to ignore- shopping areas seem to be the same

Which state are you in? The playgrounds have been fully open in SA for around 3 weeks now and so far, all under control.

 

[jase05]

Which state are you in? The playgrounds have been fully open in SA for around 3 weeks now and so far, all under control.

I saw an article stating that in Victoria playgrounds and skate parks aren’t re-opening just yet

 

[drron]

(My bolding).

Why so? The figures would seem to support that NZ will be the country that is, and will be, more effected by the tourism drop-off in terms of % employment and income.

Tourism is very important to NZ. and is more important to New Zealand than Australia. This will be one reason why their PM was recently promoting 4 day working week in NZ to boost tourism. It is also what there is a strong push in NZ to open the border to Australia.

229,566 people were directly employed in tourism (8.4 percent of the total number of people employed in New Zealand)
4.7% of the New Zealand population.


666,000 Australians were directly employed by tourism, 5% of Australia’s workforce
2.7 % of the Australian population.

So the point you raised on tourism would seem to be the reverse and you seem to be overestimating the relative hit of tourism on the Australian economy compared to NZ.

As things reactivate NZ will be more affected by the international drop off in revenue than Australia. Their export earnings from Tourism are more important to them than it is to Australia.

Tourism is New Zealand's biggest export industry, contributing 20.4% of total exports. Tourism generates a direct annual contribution to GDP of $16.2 billion, or 5.8%, and a further indirect contribution of $11.2 billion, another 4% of New Zealand's total GDP.

From 1 July 2018 to 30 June 2019 Tourism was Australia's fourth largest exporting industry, accounting for 8.2% of Australia’s exports earnings.
666,000 Australians were directly employed by tourism, 5% of Australia’s workforce

But as NZ is slightly less than 20% of Australia's population they need many less OS visitors than Australia does to fully re open their tourist industry.

On top of that as I have said a few times they have already opened restaurants and bars with up to 100 patrons.So their domestic tourism sector will end up having less damage than ours and be ready for an upswing in the not too distant future whereas our state premiers want to continue the damage even until September.