Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

hb13

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Is there like 35,000 DFAT and we are bringing in 5,000 per week? Are you the person that wanted to "visit" for 2 weeks then head back to the UK whilst resident Australians (some 50+% with overseas parents or family) can't leave to visit their own? Correct me if I'm wrong.

What do you mean by "visit"? Get your facts straight before throwing accusations mate.

I said I want to visit my family, as do thousands of others, for a period that would normally be a couple of weeks, therefore I'm NOT stranded, and I would NOT consider coming in the current circumstances.

I have always said the stranded Aussies need to be able to EASILY come home and this would only happen with a huge increase in caps and relaxation of hotel quarantine because its too expensive for too many people.
 

hb13

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Yes and no. You have to wonder at the end game of keeping the Aus Open and F1 if the country doesn't open up to tourism- yes these events are well attended locally but were also always pushed as major tourism drawcards (side note it was a major source of annoyance to watch the AO from the US and be subjected to endless commercials urging tourists to visit Melbourne, albeit they were the same commercials used in 2019)

That is a good point. I guess the question is what is the point if tourists can't come? I imagine that the thinking would be that the government doesn't want to lose these tournaments for when we are past this period and then visitors can be welcomed.

In this case, I'm not sure how easy it is for the world governing bodies for F1 and tennis to take these events away from Australia, particularly as there is a very big likelihood that tourists and visitors to Aus won't be allowed in for at least another 2-3 years. By the start of the 2022 seasons, you would imagine that many countries across Europe/Asia/UK/US would have vaccinated everyone, and therefore these tournaments can go ahead almost at full capacity (if everyone in attendance is vaccinated). I think there is maybe a 5% chance that Aussie borders will be open before the end of 2023/24 - do these tournaments go ahead in Australia with no overseas visitors allowed?
 

Flashback

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That is a good point. I guess the question is what is the point if tourists can't come? I imagine that the thinking would be that the government doesn't want to lose these tournaments for when we are past this period and then visitors can be welcomed.

In this case, I'm not sure how easy it is for the world governing bodies for F1 and tennis to take these events away from Australia, particularly as there is a very big likelihood that tourists and visitors to Aus won't be allowed in for at least another 2-3 years. By the start of the 2022 seasons, you would imagine that many countries across Europe/Asia/UK/US would have vaccinated everyone, and therefore these tournaments can go ahead almost at full capacity (if everyone in attendance is vaccinated). I think there is maybe a 5% chance that Aussie borders will be open before the end of 2023/24 - do these tournaments go ahead in Australia with no overseas visitors allowed?
It's very easy. Money talks and it will often go to the highest bidder. The F1 GP used to be in Radelaide....
 

burmans

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I agree with the best figures. They sort of look like this; Is this what you would open up to in a hurry?
Seems kind of weird to use evidence of slow vaccination worldwide as a reason to keep that vaccination slow. I'd totally agree there are still some basket cases out there but to me travel doesn't have to mean a world tour. There are enough countries with good vaccination rates out there who show the opposite trend, try Israel and the UK.

Its always seemed kind of werid to me that people want to compare themselves to the worst rather than the best.
 

burmans

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When you read the Covid stats OS, the opening of international borders is not going to happen for a looong time... COVID-19 third wave threatens Australia’s exit strategy
Unless you are planning a world tour, opening of borders does not have to mean every border open. So, sure its a long time until we have unfettered travel, but this doesn't mean some travel wont be in place and maybe we should take this as a positive rather than the inability to travel to countries we probably don't want to travel to at the moment anyway.
 

mviy

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Unless you are planning a world tour, opening of borders does not have to mean every border open. So, sure its a long time until we have unfettered travel, but this doesn't mean some travel wont be in place and maybe we should take this as a positive rather than the inability to travel to countries we probably don't want to travel to at the moment anyway.
Indeed. In any case I'm only interested in borders being open to go to the UK as that's the only country I need to visit for the foreseeable future. Next best would be a third country that people living in Australia and the UK can both visit, if going to the UK remains off the table. Visiting any other countries is more of a want than a need for me.

I don't want to visit the UK now, but by the end of the year I'm hoping their vaccination is well and truly complete and that it's safe enough for my liking to visit.
 

Virgin Bart

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I'll throw my hat into the ring:

These are across the board.

Absolute best case scenario: Early June 2020
Mid case scenario: Early September 2020
Worst case scenario: Early December 2020

Zombie apocalypse, glad you hoarded toilet paper and pasta: June 2021

Only mention toilet paper and pasta because I came out of 14 days isolation today and are still unavailable. Fresh food which I craved was in plentiful supply :)
Unfortunately these predictions really did not age well. I remember reading them a year ago and thinking they were negative.
 

oznflfan

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Unfortunately these predictions really did not age well. I remember reading them a year ago and thinking they were negative.
So hard to predict what can open when, so how about using UK as an example.

Best case: March 2022
Mid case: Sept 2022
Worst case: June 2023
 

mviy

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So hard to predict what can open when, so how about using UK as an example.

Best case: March 2022
Mid case: Sept 2022
Worst case: June 2023
I hope that's wrong. I plan to book a trip to go there and come back home before your best case date, but only once I know that I can go. I've given up hope of going in July, so I'm now hoping for the end of the year or early February at the absolute latest.
 
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burmans

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So hard to predict what can open when, so how about using UK as an example.

Best case: March 2022
Mid case: Sept 2022
Worst case: June 2023
While I think in early days the UK was an absolute example of how not to do things, the latest stats are quite amazing, having moved for a 7 day moving average on 1250 deaths three months ago, to 26 now. There have been predictions that UK travelers will be allowed to travel this summer if vaccinated.

I think they are likely to start letting people in also well before end of this year if vaccinated, of course getting vaccinated (twice) not so easy if you are here in Australia.
 

Seat0B

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dajop

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At his press conference today, Scott Morrison said again that home quarantine was months away. Hardly a surprise.

Knock me down with a feather. The playbook for any month:
Week 1: Announce we are looking at alternatives to allow more people to come back to Australia, and float the possibility of people being able to leave Australia
Week 2: Announce the possibility of more bubbles with select countries like Singapore and Taiwan
Week 3: Announce the possibility of home quarantine for some travellers
Week 4: Announce that all of this is months away

Next month: Rinse and repeat.
 

mviy

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Maybe it's just not being reported, but it would be nice if there was some empathy reported for those finding the restrictions increasingly difficult to cope with.

Hopefully, national cabinet is able to come up with some decisions that at least show what the expected pathway to some travel opening up is.
 

ayushamity

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At his press conference today, Scott Morrison said again that home quarantine was months away. Hardly a surprise.

Home quarantine for vaccinated travellers only is always expected to only happen in Q4 this year. So it is as expected.
 

Flashback

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While I think in early days the UK was an absolute example of how not to do things, the latest stats are quite amazing, having moved for a 7 day moving average on 1250 deaths three months ago, to 26 now. There have been predictions that UK travelers will be allowed to travel this summer if vaccinated.

I think they are likely to start letting people in also well before end of this year if vaccinated, of course getting vaccinated (twice) not so easy if you are here in Australia.
There is no restrictions on coming here, nothing is stopping you right now. Vaccinated makes no difference either. Once the new system comes into effect on May 17 and moves to a traffic light system, even countries on the green list will require a PCR test on day 2 and being vaccinated doesn't get you out of it.
 

hb13

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So hard to predict what can open when, so how about using UK as an example.

Best case: March 2022
Mid case: Sept 2022
Worst case: June 2023

I'm praying that end of this year is best case, but somehow I think that your predictions are too optimistic. The reason for this is that apart from one flight (Perth-LHR), flights from the UK are not direct. And when we talk about the direct flight - it is to Perth, which will absolutely fight to keep international borders (and their own borders if they could) closed indefinitely.

On top of no direct flight options, I'm fairly certain the UK will open its borders sometime towards the end of this year to the majority of Europe/US/Middle East. The UK has a 'red-list' which will likely remain, particularly with all the variants around.

I'd say best case scenario (UK-Aus) is end of 2022, mid-case end of 2023 and worst case is 2025 or beyond (it is possible borders will never open). As pessimistic as that sounds consider the following:

1. We are right now less sure of borders opening up compared to any point in the pandemic, over a year after it started.
2. The vast majority of the Australian population wants borders closed, and politicians are aware of this (apparently only 57% of Australians have passports, so half the country didn't even plan on travelling before the pandemic).
3. At the current rate, and assuming there will continue to be hiccups, the Australian population is unlikely to be vaccinated till end of 2022.
4. Because many countries all around the world mix together, and will very likely do so before Australia and NZ, the Australian government is likely to broadly keep borders closed till the whole world is vaccinated - and that prospect is 2024/25.
 

Seat0B

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I'm praying that end of this year is best case, but somehow I think that your predictions are too optimistic. The reason for this is that apart from one flight (Perth-LHR), flights from the UK are not direct. And when we talk about the direct flight - it is to Perth, which will absolutely fight to keep international borders (and their own borders if they could) closed indefinitely.

On top of no direct flight options, I'm fairly certain the UK will open its borders sometime towards the end of this year to the majority of Europe/US/Middle East. The UK has a 'red-list' which will likely remain, particularly with all the variants around.

I'd say best case scenario (UK-Aus) is end of 2022, mid-case end of 2023 and worst case is 2025 or beyond (it is possible borders will never open). As pessimistic as that sounds consider the following:

1. We are right now less sure of borders opening up compared to any point in the pandemic, over a year after it started.
2. The vast majority of the Australian population wants borders closed, and politicians are aware of this (apparently only 57% of Australians have passports, so half the country didn't even plan on travelling before the pandemic).
3. At the current rate, and assuming there will continue to be hiccups, the Australian population is unlikely to be vaccinated till end of 2022.
4. Because many countries all around the world mix together, and will very likely do so before Australia and NZ, the Australian government is likely to broadly keep borders closed till the whole world is vaccinated - and that prospect is 2024/25.
Nooooooooo. I hope you are just having a bad day @hb13 and that you have the opposite of rose coloured glasses on. Sorry, that sounds harsh, but you know what I mean, we all have low days when it seems impossible that we will ever be with family again, and I too have felt very pessimistic. More so in the past few months than ever before, even from last year. Sending you great understanding and empathy.
 

Pom-DownUnder

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Food for thought.

I wonder if any airlines are looking at the possibility of 'bubble' flights as in, LHR to SIN (everyone stays on board while refueled) party on to SYD with maybe a distanced delivery of food too?

madness?

also thought there was a direct LHR to SYD or did i dream that?
 

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