Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

mviy

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I don't think anyone expects a complete opening, but some relaxation of restrictions that allows Australians to go overseas and see family, to conduct business etc. and return and quarantine at home or in a hotel is not at all unreasonable.

Most people here that need to go and see family wouldn't have been able to do since before 2020 as travel plans to see family in 2020 were scuppered by the border closure. So even the end of this year would make it a few years between seeing family which is an awfully long time.
 

burmans

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I wouldn't be expecting opening before next year at earliest. My daughter is stuck in AMS for time being. In NL one in 13 of the population has been infected and it looks like a 3rd wave is likely not only there but in Germany. France is looking really cough too. Why would you want our borders opened up to these people? More to the point, why would you want to fly to a country with a night time curfew?
Because the world consists of a lot of countries with widely varying infection rates? This doesn’t have to be a one size fits all opening up.
 

Matt_01

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I like many others am becoming increasingly frustrated with what seems to be the government's plan to keep us locked up in HM Prison Australia. I have no issues with keeping the borders closed or the rules around quarantine if arriving from elsewhere to AU i.e. another country. I also have no issues with the fact/ realisation that I may be subject to similar rules, say if I wanted to go to the UK, US or CA. Choosing to leave AU should be my choice, and my decision and not subject to some online form.
 

dajop

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A flight from Dehli to HKG had 47 Covid positive cases after post flight testing. All supposedly tested negative before the flight

I'm not really surprised by this. India is in for a very tough time now, and testing results I think we can all take with a grain of salt.
 

hb13

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I'm not really surprised by this. India is in for a very tough time now, and testing results I think we can all take with a grain of salt.

I spoke to a friend who is based in India currently for work - and he has said many people he knows have gotten certificates that are faked, especially as people don't want to lose their tickets on flights. I can't speak for what is happening in general, or that particular Vistara flight, but that is what I have heard.
 

dajop

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I spoke to a friend who is based in India currently for work - and he has said many people he knows have gotten certificates that are faked, especially as people don't want to lose their tickets on flights. I can't speak for what is happening in general, or that particular Vistara flight, but that is what I have heard.

Yes, the financial incentive to fake a test results is quite powerful.

Hong Kong has now banned all flights from India, Pakistan and Philippines due to the prevalence of the South African variant. They've also for some time been banning any carriers who carry more than a low threshold (recently lowered further) of passengers per flight testing positive after arrival - irrespective of supposed pre-flight test results. SQ had a 2 week ban, and as a result will no longer carrying any transit passengers to Hong Kong.
 

ayushamity

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I don't think anyone expects a complete opening, but some relaxation of restrictions that allows Australians to go overseas and see family, to conduct business etc. and return and quarantine at home or in a hotel is not at all unreasonable.

Not just family, how about partners ? Haven't seen my fiance since Feb 2020 and while video chatting does exist, that doesn't replace the real life thing.
 

Kimpos

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How is quarantining at home going to work in practical terms? Don't get me wrong, its a great intermediate step but assuming the quarantinee lives with others who need to work or shop or attend a large football match or host a large gathering at home, how is the risk mitigated such that there is no risk of community spread? Or is it that the returned traveller must be vaccinated and there is an assumption that there will be no transmission? I realise that Scomo et al said there are a lot of details to work through but at this point I can only see more hurdles that the current (and what appears to be, future) risk appetite will put up
 

ayushamity

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Or is it that the returned traveller must be vaccinated and there is an assumption that there will be no transmission?

Reduced transmission. So not zero risk but lower risk. Also, they might only allow to select countries with nil covid so then the risk of catching covid in the first place lowers the risk even further.

The rest of the world realised that Covid is here to stay and the objective is to bring the severity down to a normal flu - But the Australian Goverment is still living in a different dimension.
 
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mviy

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My last visit was years ago, but my family member came out to Australia in 2019, I think.
 

dajop

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How is quarantining at home going to work in practical terms? Don't get me wrong, its a great intermediate step but assuming the quarantinee lives with others who need to work or shop or attend a large football match or host a large gathering at home, how is the risk mitigated such that there is no risk of community spread? Or is it that the returned traveller must be vaccinated and there is an assumption that there will be no transmission?

They could set a rule that quarantining returned travellers must not share a house/apartment with others. That is probably why it is being discussed more of an option for opening up travel to vaccinated residents - they could return home to their own house/apartment (vs overseas residents coming to Australia - where it is likely that most do not have sole access to a property). Of course this system is also far from infallible.
 

mviy

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There are things they could consider doing like paying a bond before you leave Australia (or on arrival back in Australia) to be returned if you do the right thing for the 14 days after you return, huge fines for doing the wrong thing, putting into hotel quarantine if do the wrong thing, potential confiscation of passport for a few years etc. There are ways they could make it work.

If the bond is due on arrival in Australia then if you fail to pay it straight away it would be off to hotel quarantine.
 

prozac

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They could set a rule that quarantining returned travellers must not share a house/apartment with others. That is probably why it is being discussed more of an option for opening up travel to vaccinated residents - they could return home to their own house/apartment (vs overseas residents coming to Australia - where it is likely that most do not have sole access to a property). Of course this system is also far from infallible.
Do you expect travelers to abide by a home quarantine rule when, as hb13 reports, many are willing to obtain fake certificates? Decisions need to be set taking into account the weakest link in the chain, in this case human nature. How is mid-quarantine covid testing to be efficiently implemented when returnees are spread across all Australian states and territories?

Just this morning a NZ AKL airport border worker has tested positive and the travel bubble has been in place barely 24hrs.
 

dajop

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Do you expect travelers to abide by a home quarantine rule when, as hb13 reports, many are willing to obtain fake certificates? Decisions need to be set taking into account the weakest link in the chain, in this case human nature. How is mid-quarantine covid testing to be efficiently implemented when returnees are spread across all Australian states and territories?

I think the discussion was mainly in relation to facilitating vaccinated Australians to travel from Australia and return. So health records could be used to establish the veracity of the vaccination. Then, knowing that test certificates could be fake, as is done in places like Singapore and Hong Kong, you establish a testing station at the airport and herd people there and then move them into short stay facilities whilst awaiting results. There are ways of reducing the risk substantially, and once the majority of Australians over 50 are vaccinated the risk is even further reduced.

The fact is Australia has a choice, not now, but probably by Christmas it will have to decide if it wants to be come a hermit nation - forever - or accept a very low level of risk.
 

mviy

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They can and should put in place significant penalties for significant breaches of home quarantine. Even if it requires legislation by both the states and the feds I can't see the feds objecting to banning someone from international travel for a period of time if they do a serious breach of home quarantine, in addition to any state fines.
 

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