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Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

RAM

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RAM - have you factored in the effects of the vaccine in reducing the severity of covid, if contracted? The flu vaccine is far from 100% effective, but I understand it can often reduce the severity of symptoms, preventing an otherwise death.

So the one family member might get covid, but that might not result in ICU or worse.

I'm prepared to live with that.
Severity of CV is one aspect but still remains that if vaccine is ineffective in making you immune then individual factors come into play for severity. The public data on the two 'correct' trials is too limited given the ratio of catching CV vs mortality rates. As the mortality rates currently for most countries are at worst 1/2 the level seen in their respective 1st waves (or in the UK's case less than 1/10th the first wave level) then the sample sizes are not large enough to provide statistically significant figures based on what's in the public domain.

Reporting just 5 cases of people who took the vaccine & still contracted CV is just too small a sample size to draw conculsions on the severity reduction especially at just months into the typical 12-18 month duration. That none have been serious is a great start but not a guaranteed result as the sample size increases along with the duration. With a 1% population mortality rate then you would require about 300 to test positive with zero deaths to even start to 'statistically' say it has decreased the mortality rate (vs expected 3 deaths). The introduction of using steroids in a similar protocol as with severe asthma attacks seems (not stats done yet that I've seen) to have decreased the initial mortality rates by up to 45% - yet has not got the positive press I would have thought that deserved nor the hope! it provides.

Understood your preparedness - but could you be that one person who becomes the equivalent to the Melbourne Hotel night manager who inadvertently led to Victoria being shut down & the Tradewinds' outbreak in Sydney etc etc. If the vaccine does not render you immune then the limiting of severity is a moot point. With the efficacy rates quoted the outcomes are infected or not - to date (I haven't seen any updates) the factual reports highlighted (from the two more reputable trials' candidates) that the level of transmission impact was not known & it would take much longer to be determined.

Whilst you are happy to take that risk - are the other four members of your family (who knows which one may not be immune) equally happy? Do you have any elderly relatives or friends etc that could be place at risk?

Then consider every other flight that is arrving in Australia that day, say 50 (2018/19 around 250 international arrival flights per day btw). Then multiply out for a week - and that suggests around 700 active CV cases arriving in the community over just one week.

In isolation, the risk to you may not seem great, but the risk at a community level is much greater. Then add in that roughly 4 out of 5 cases are asymptomatic....and regular international travel looks to be further away than anyone wants.
 

drron

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OATEK

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It's definitely too late to have vaccines available from March when other countries can have it in December.

Yet I wonder under the current manufacturing progress in Melbourne, we should have get the first batch ready by January 2021?

Yet I am concerned to take Astrazeneca vaccine as their efficiency is too low (as low as 62%) that does not worth twice the pain to get it, maybe worth waiting for Pfizer to get vaccinated.

Anyhow, as I have stressed, once vaccine is rolled out, international borders must immediately open, at a bare minimum to Asian safe countries. There are far too much harm for families to be apart than Coronavirus itself, which has become weakened and less deadly already than in April.

Whether to open to US or EU will depend on more people getting vaccinated, but I think Australian government should purchase Moderna vaccine immediately to ensure we can fast track the staged reopening.
You are missing a key point, and that is many countries (UK, US for example) are seeing mass infection, Australia is not. So for overseas travel to become safer, those countries with high infection rates need to get the vaccines rolled out. That way when we start to travel (Q3 or Q4 2021) the chances of anyone for whom the vaccines is not effective becoming infected is so much lower.
 

CityRail

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Moderna has just applied for Emergency Authorisation.
December 17th is the date the FDA is likely to meet to discuss the Moderna vaccine's safety and efficacy data.Might take longer though to wave it through.

I think Australia should act now and ensure we have early access to Moderna vaccine, at least it is better than the Astrazenaca one!

ayushamity: Yes, some Asian countries like Vietnam may be reluctant to open their borders until vaccination programs commence in their own country, yet I believe there are a number of Asian countries who rely heavily on tourism/trade and will be willing to open the borders to other countries once vaccine is available. These could be Thailand, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Singapore.

Japan is getting their first doses of vaccines in January/February next year and we can expect their borders could open as they suggested in April.

So whilst not all countries will open, I am hoping some will, so that it gives us hope that we will be able to go back to where we come from and reunite with families again whom we miss.
 

Flashback

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Lockdown 2.0 in the UK (and Europe) has at least had the desired results in reducing the # cases / 100,000 over a 14 day period.
1606802596386.png
 

CityRail

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You are missing a key point, and that is many countries (UK, US for example) are seeing mass infection, Australia is not. So for overseas travel to become safer, those countries with high infection rates need to get the vaccines rolled out. That way when we start to travel (Q3 or Q4 2021) the chances of anyone for whom the vaccines is not effective becoming infected is so much lower.
I think if we are to commence travel in Q3/Q4 2021 will be way too late.

I would agree to vast majority of the world we might need to wait until then, but for Pacific, NZ and safe Asian countries, I think the Government should aim for a Easter opening for them.
 

OATEK

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I think if we are to commence travel in Q3/Q4 2021 will be way too late.

I would agree to vast majority of the world we might need to wait until then, but for Pacific, NZ and safe Asian countries, I think the Government should aim for a Easter opening for them.
You have still missed the point. If one in 10 travellers from Australia is not protected by the vaccine (on a best case 90%+ efficacy rate), and they travel to places with high infection rates, then they are at risk. The Governments of Australia and NZ are unlikely to take the chance of allowing widespread travel as long as widespread infections are the norm. The vaccine rollout in other coubntries will be a key trigger to allow us to travel, as much as the rollout here (IMHO).
 

ayushamity

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The vaccine rollout in other coubntries will be a key trigger to allow us to travel, as much as the rollout here (IMHO).

Here is another interesting question. How soon after vaccinations are we going to see covid infections drop off in the UK and US.

1 month ? 2 month? 4 months?
 
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OATEK

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Here is another interesting question. How soon after vaccinations are we going to see covid infections drop off in the UK and US.

1 month ? 2 month? 4 months?
Well the chart above (post #3485 shows a drop off of infections over a 14day period with lockdowns. I expect the vaccination process will be slower than lock downs so weeks will likely turn into months.
 

Flashback

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Here is another interesting question. How soon after vaccinations are we going to see covid infections drop off in the UK and US.

1 month ? 2 month? 4 months?

Surely it's closer to 2 months minimum; the vaccine is 2 shots at 28 days (or so) apart; then you have the lag in the infection numbers which for the recent lockdown took 2-3 weeks of course.
 

dajop

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Where things are at with vaccines from the different companies in Australia. This is the pre-cursor to a provisional application to the TGA. It would seem as of 18 Nov, Moderna had not yet been granted a provisional determination by TGA.

 

drron

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I think Australia should act now and ensure we have early access to Moderna vaccine, at least it is better than the Astrazenaca one!
Sorry but we really don't know that.A Phase 3 trial isn't a true reflection of the likelihood of a successful vaccine.Having been working in Medicine many years I remember the 1976 swine Flu vaccine being given Emergency Authorisation by the CDC in the USA.Result lots of cases of severe Guillain-Barre syndrome many of which were severe resulting in death or paralysis.

It is also very likely that the vaccines even if successful will eliminate the risk of infection and that Covid will be with us for a very long time.
 

jakeseven7

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Sorry but we really don't know that.A Phase 3 trial isn't a true reflection of the likelihood of a successful vaccine.Having been working in Medicine many years I remember the 1976 swine Flu vaccine being given Emergency Authorisation by the CDC in the USA.Result lots of cases of severe Guillain-Barre syndrome many of which were severe resulting in death or paralysis.

It is also very likely that the vaccines even if successful will eliminate the risk of infection and that Covid will be with us for a very long time.

Someone better tell WA and QLD this ;)
 

james4321

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As well as NZ please. We need to educate Adern that we need to live with this virus and open the borders to Australia early is a no brainer.
Look while I’m sure she would appreciate your very generous offer, I’m equally sure that she has an adequate number of advisors already. 😂😂
 

MEL_Traveller

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Severity of CV is one aspect but still remains that if vaccine is ineffective in making you immune then individual factors come into play for severity. The public data on the two 'correct' trials is too limited given the ratio of catching CV vs mortality rates. As the mortality rates currently for most countries are at worst 1/2 the level seen in their respective 1st waves (or in the UK's case less than 1/10th the first wave level) then the sample sizes are not large enough to provide statistically significant figures based on what's in the public domain.

Reporting just 5 cases of people who took the vaccine & still contracted CV is just too small a sample size to draw conculsions on the severity reduction especially at just months into the typical 12-18 month duration. That none have been serious is a great start but not a guaranteed result as the sample size increases along with the duration. With a 1% population mortality rate then you would require about 300 to test positive with zero deaths to even start to 'statistically' say it has decreased the mortality rate (vs expected 3 deaths). The introduction of using steroids in a similar protocol as with severe asthma attacks seems (not stats done yet that I've seen) to have decreased the initial mortality rates by up to 45% - yet has not got the positive press I would have thought that deserved nor the hope! it provides.

Understood your preparedness - but could you be that one person who becomes the equivalent to the Melbourne Hotel night manager who inadvertently led to Victoria being shut down & the Tradewinds' outbreak in Sydney etc etc. If the vaccine does not render you immune then the limiting of severity is a moot point. With the efficacy rates quoted the outcomes are infected or not - to date (I haven't seen any updates) the factual reports highlighted (from the two more reputable trials' candidates) that the level of transmission impact was not known & it would take much longer to be determined.

Whilst you are happy to take that risk - are the other four members of your family (who knows which one may not be immune) equally happy? Do you have any elderly relatives or friends etc that could be place at risk?

Then consider every other flight that is arrving in Australia that day, say 50 (2018/19 around 250 international arrival flights per day btw). Then multiply out for a week - and that suggests around 700 active CV cases arriving in the community over just one week.

In isolation, the risk to you may not seem great, but the risk at a community level is much greater. Then add in that roughly 4 out of 5 cases are asymptomatic....and regular international travel looks to be further away than anyone wants.

Thanks RAM.

I was watching the late late news last night and a Moderna spokesperson was saying that there was a 100% effectiveness in reducing severity of covid for those who had been vaccinated. That is promising.

As far as I can tell, the current set of vaccines is not so much looking at whether a person is immune, but rather whether a person gets sick? So you could still get covid, but just not develop symptoms.

Yes, I have elderly parents, and elderly relatives. At least two of the elderly relatives in Europe (aunt and uncle) contracted covid. Otherwise fairly healthy, they got very sick but did not ultimately require hospitalisation.

We are going to have to live with the virus, at least for the next two to three years. My relatives still want to get on with life, and the extreme shielding is not much fun for them.

I think the risk profile changes with a vaccine... without it, the risk is too high, and the risk of others not 'not doing the right thing/ playing safe' is also high. It makes it difficult to accept the risks.

But with a vaccine, the risk probably changes to one that is far more acceptable. If everyone has done the right thing... getting vaccinated, good hygiene, and you still get severely ill, perhaps that's a bit easier to accept than getting sick (or dying) because someone has done the wrong thing?
 

ayushamity

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But with a vaccine, the risk probably changes to one that is far more acceptable. If everyone has done the right thing... getting vaccinated, good hygiene, and you still get severely ill, perhaps that's a bit easier to accept than getting sick (or dying) because someone has done the wrong thing?

But our government is just looking at one thing - case numbers.

So even if a vaccine reduced the severity down to a common cold, but if numbers stay high, they won't open.
 

MEL_Traveller

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But our government is just looking at one thing - case numbers.

So even if a vaccine reduced the severity down to a common cold, but if numbers stay high, they won't open.

Hopefully once the vaccine is out the criteria will be reassessed. Case numbers won't be relevant so much anymore.
 
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