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Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

drron

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And Moderna saying that the vaccine is 100% effective in reducing severity is just spin.99% of cases are mild and with just single digit numbers of cases in the vaccinated group you just can't be sure that it reduces severity.From the BMJ article that I have posted before.

"Yet the current phase III trials are not actually set up to prove either (table 1). None of the trials currently under way are designed to detect a reduction in any serious outcome such as hospital admissions, use of intensive care, or deaths. Nor are the vaccines being studied to determine whether they can interrupt transmission of the virus."

 

MEL_Traveller

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Geez... according to some of the naysayers we might as well just suck on a barley sugar... apparently the vaccines don't stop transmission, don't reduce the severity, don't provide immunity. Billions of dollars spent, hundreds of thousands of people through trials... and all for naught??

Edited to add... even if it does work (big ‘if’ as vaccines can’t be developed in under five years!), it’s too slow to be produced, too difficult to ship, to hard to distribute once it arrives, all bar one are too expensive... and you might as well forget it because you may need a booster every year. Oh, and remember Sweden in 1976! :(
 
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ayushamity

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We also have no proof yet that the vaccines actually will drop infection rates.

Imagine if the infection rate does not drop after the vaccine...Ouch!!!

This year has been an immense rollercoaster with second and third waves of COVID and every time it looks like borders might open, they shut again.

I am not taking anything for granted and will only start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel IF the infections rates start dropping after mass vaccination. Don't want to get my hopes up again and get smashed.
 

trevella

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Geez... according to some of the naysayers we might as well just suck on a barley sugar... apparently the vaccines don't stop transmission, don't reduce the severity, don't provide immunity. Billions of dollars spent, hundreds of thousands of people through trials... and all for naught??

Edited to add... even if it does work (big ‘if’ as vaccines can’t be developed in under five years!), it’s too slow to be produced, too difficult to ship, to hard to distribute once it arrives, all bar one are too expensive... and you might as well forget it because you may need a booster every year. Oh, and remember Sweden in 1976! :(

It really seems to be all or nothing with you...

A vaccine was never going to be a panacea, which is why binary thinking without any attention to actual risk levels will ultimately prove so expensive and disruptive.
 

dajop

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Geez... according to some of the naysayers we might as well just suck on a barley sugar... apparently the vaccines don't stop transmission, don't reduce the severity, don't provide immunity. ...

They are looking promising though. I am sure will take longer to roll out than is being made out. The timelines we hear are always the start of vaccination programs.

Also I think most can see clear benefits to partially effective (whatever that means) vaccines in places where the virus is rife and there are thousands, if not tens of thousands new cases being identified each day.

Where some of us struggle is seeing how these vaccines will move Australia beyond the current mindset, where there’s quite of a lot outrage associated with a very small number of cases....
 
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oznflfan

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Forgetting Sept 2021 oversea's, just won't happen. Really committed to July 2022 Europe though, and as I need to plan things out well prior, would really like at least 3-6 months lead in time to book and fully plan. March 2022 full borders open????????????????????
 

MEL_Traveller

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Where some of us struggle is seeing how these vaccines will move Australia beyond the current mindset, where there’s quite of a lot outrage associated with a very small number of cases....

Well yes, because even a small number of cases can get into aged care or vulnerable communities and have a high death toll.

With the vaccine we hope that isn't going to happen - similar to the flu shot I guess.
 

MEL_Traveller

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It really seems to be all or nothing with you...

A vaccine was never going to be a panacea, which is why binary thinking without any attention to actual risk levels will ultimately prove so expensive and disruptive.

Except the naysayers aren't offering any real alternatives other than 'lock down the elderly and vulnerable'. I'm not sure that's a fair approach.
 

CityRail

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Forgetting Sept 2021 oversea's, just won't happen. Really committed to July 2022 Europe though, and as I need to plan things out well prior, would really like at least 3-6 months lead in time to book and fully plan. March 2022 full borders open????????????????????

Why it just won't open? It should open by then as Australians need to go to the Olympics already!
 

dajop

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Why it just won't open? It should open by then as Australians need to go to the Olympics already!

Border has never really been closed for those competing in or officiating at major international sporting events.
 

oznflfan

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Why it just won't open? It should open by then as Australians need to go to the Olympics already!
They may not allow any spectators, or even just locals. You'll know next year, surely they have to make a decision on crowds by April?

Good news for you though: I'm very bearish on travel next year. If you take that in terms of sharemarket, when I am bearish market usually is usually bullish. I could be wrong about travel.

Made a quick $1,400 on FLT when they dropped below $10, but sold out a month later when I got nervous when VIC outbreak happened. Missed out on all FLT rises so far (still don't see why it is as high as it is).

Oh well, the $1,400 should just about cover my eventual return flight to Europe in 2022, and of course feel very obliged to book it through local FLT.
 

dajop

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To be honest though, why do Australians, if not competing in, officiating at or supporting (coaching etc) need to attend the Olympics? People have been doing without visiting their family for months now. What's more important sitting at a sporting event you can watch on TV anyway or person to person contact with loved ones? Maybe for some the former, but for most the latter I'm sure.
 

CityRail

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To be honest though, why do Australians, if not competing in, officiating at or supporting (coaching etc) need to attend the Olympics? People have been doing without visiting their family for months now. What's more important sitting at a sporting event you can watch on TV anyway or person to person contact with loved ones? Maybe for some the former, but for most the latter I'm sure.

1. To volunteer at it and get better on your CV.
2. To cheer for your team and hope Australia can get more gold medals.

By July next year, vaccines will be readily available and more Japanese will have already vaccinated.
So I don't know why we still need to have our borders closed and prevent us from getting high quality Japanese made goods and services bought in Japan?
 

I love to travel

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1. To volunteer at it and get better on your CV.
2. To cheer for your team and hope Australia can get more gold medals.

By July next year, vaccines will be readily available and more Japanese will have already vaccinated.
So I don't know why we still need to have our borders closed and prevent us from getting high quality Japanese made goods and services bought in Japan?
@CityRail a genuine question. If you are so unhappy here why not go home? None is stopping you.
 

RAM

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Is the biggest issue both Australia & virtually all countries around the world are facing - public education & buy-in?

As several have commented in the past few pages: what happens next is primarily going to depend on how people behave.

Some politicians overseas have been using the analogy of being at war with this enemy (CV). Using that approach, then covidiots are akin to spies or 5th columnists sabotaging the effort. The difference in this case is that they are not 'executed' if caught by their respective governments.

The seriousness, now arguably ten or eleven months in, remains different messages being conveyed - the latest case seen in Adelaide with the 'no need to quarantine' message to the 30 something male. It really seems to highlight how much the 'national focus' has been replaced in many countries by a 'silo' focus or perhaps even more mercenary - me-first.

The one stroke of luck, seemingly, is that these new tech vaccine approaches have compressed development timeframes by close to 18 months. This time is looking like it may well be different & for the first time a successful & safe coronavirus vaccine created.

The testing time frames have also been compressed significantly & even permitted to run concurrently (at least for the AZ/Oxford trial).

The worst (not doomsday) outcome would be if even 1/10th of any country's population interpret the introduction of a vaccine as meaning they can become complacent. Europe & the US are prime examples of what can happen without 'vaccine' complacency.

Equally important though is that the politicians & drug companies don't allow their own interests to subvert the messaging (as elections approach and potential sales respectively entice). Much of big pharma are not run nor controlled by people who came up through the research side - virtually all C-level execs are from sales or marketing. The spin with AZ/Oxford on their 90% but really 62% Phase II results may provide such an example given AZ has commitments (predominently) & some firm contracts for billions of doses.

Much has been made of Big Pharma saying they will not seek to profit but sell at cost. Trouble is their definition of cost which typically involves a massive 'corporate overhead' added in. Typically the manufacturing cost makes 3-11% of 'total cost per dose' booked.

It is a shame that unlike during the world wars, most countries have not seen somebody really step up & consistently promote an accurate, concise & consistent message. This lack is one factor pushing out the date for regular flying to resume probably far more than any other.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Is the biggest issue both Australia & virtually all countries around the world are facing - public education & buy-in?

If, as proposed, the vaccine prevents serious illness, then surely it becomes a matter of choice a bit like the flu vaccine? As long as I, my family and elderly relatives are vaccinated, does it really matter if others aren't? (yes, from a public health resource perspective, but in terms of risk, as long as I am protected, it's a choice as to whether others decide to or not?)
 

clifford

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