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Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Pom-DownUnder

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Apparently 'herd immunity' is only around 15% according to the article in todays ABC (online version).

Figures for Sweden (from that article):

There have been 225,560 cases of coronavirus in Sweden, a country of 10 million, and 6,500 people have died.
For comparison, there have been 27,854 cases and 907 deaths in Australia, which has a population of 25 million.
and if a vaccine hadnt been found?

- keep AUS shut till the entire world has covid burn through?
- keep AUS shut until you cant any more then have it burn through anyway?
- open up ?

like i said months ago the option isnt ... stay shut ... or open up and have mandatory orgies plenty of middle ground to explore with

but ... there is a vaccine, well the rest of the world there is, just not here for another 4 months
 

MEL_Traveller

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and if a vaccine hadnt been found?

But isn't that a bit of a moot point... we were waiting to see if a vaccine was going to be possible. Turns out it is.

We knew the timelines... researchers/medical companies indicated we'd have information one way or the other by the end of 2020.

Had the timelines been years rather than months, or if the results of vaccine trials had not been positive, sure, we'd have had to look at alternative ways to manage, and how we would open our borders.

Ok, so if it turns out Australia is three months behind USA/UK/Europe... that's inconvenient, but not the end of the world?
 

OATEK

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its not caution its ineptitude, there is nothing else that will be learned between mid jan and march first, other than if scomo goes on his travels again and learns how to plan a mass vaccination
You seem very keen to earn that epither so often thrown at people from Engalnd.

We are in regular contact with our family in Lancashire, and they are doing it tough. One of the older members has only been out of the house twice since March. The others a little more frequently, but not much more. Apparently Bingo online has saved lives according to one elderly rello. One other always gets seasonal flu that lays him low even with the jab, and expects he will not be able to leave home until the warm weather in March/April 2021. Relies on his son who works in the local Hospial lab to bring their shopping, but does not enter their house for fear he may bring Covid with him.

IMHO, Australia does not look all that bad at the moment.
 

CityRail

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So apparently UK is approving vaccine within days. What is Australia's TGA doing?
I think they should pick up their game and approve vaccines as soon as possible, so that we can open the borders in time for summer travel and allow us to go back to where we come from!
 

mrfreeze

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So apparently UK is approving vaccine within days. What is Australia's TGA doing?
I think they should pick up their game and approve vaccines as soon as possible, so that we can open the borders in time for summer travel and allow us to go back to where we come from!

While it would be great if International travel opened back up for summer the reality is that it will not as enough people will not be vaccinated in time for this to happen.
 

james4321

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So apparently UK is approving vaccine within days. What is Australia's TGA doing?
I think they should pick up their game and approve vaccines as soon as possible, so that we can open the borders in time for summer travel and allow us to go back to where we come from!
For some people the sooner that happens the better 😉
 

ayushamity

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I think they should pick up their game and approve vaccines as soon as possible, so that we can open the borders in time for summer travel and allow us to go back to where we come from!

If you mean our summer, we aren't even getting the vaccines till March so after summer
 

CityRail

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For some people the sooner that happens the better 😉

Of course! International borders has separated families and loved ones stranded across different parts of the world. So the sooner we open the borders the better it will be!
 
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clifford

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Of course! International borders has separated families and loved ones stranded across different parts of the world. So the sooner we open the borders the better it will be!
I love your gung-ho approach. I guess you don't have parents or grandparents.

FWIW, my mother was killed by Covid in the UK recently.

But, of course, it's no more deadly than a mild flu...
 

JohnM

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For some people the sooner that happens the better 😉

Of course! International borders has separated families and loved ones stranded across different parts of the world. So the sooner we open the borders the better it will be!

D'oh. Ya don't go to the university for nuthin'... :rolleyes:
 

tgh

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Didn't even make it past Year 11 …. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

That is you to the back of the queue..
In fact , I suggest that you wait at home (or in your burrow) and listen to the radio for future eligibility announcements.
just a reminder to those outside in the queue.. you must show your graduation papers or you will not be vaccinated...
next please….
 

dajop

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So more information on how Victoria will be handling quarantining international pax when it opens up again next week.

Don't read the comments though they are overwhelmingly depressing naysayers.

 

ayushamity

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Right. So Moderna has completed Phase 3 trials at 95% efficacy and is going for FDA approval on Dec 17 (one week after Pfizer approval)

But Australia has not bought any Moderna vaccines and will only get 10 million doses of Pfizer by March

'Facepalm'
 
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All the concern of Australia only being in a position to start vaccinating in March (i.e. some months later than the US and Europe) does not make much sense to me. Before Australia can open its international borders (which is the whole point of this thread) - the rest of the world needs to get Covid under control - as long as our borders are closed we're doing just fine (thank goodness).
 

RAM

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The balance between how many need to be vaccinated within Australia & worldwide before regular services can start building - is much more difficult than many think.

In Princess Fiona's post above (#3,470) the graphic shows one aspect of vaccination maths. There is a second side of vaccination maths - what is the risk on a small group basis (eg: a family of 5 say travelling overseas?).

In PF's post the vaccine example uses 95% which is the 'early stage figure'. However as time goes by that figure will either stay the same or reduce. Just as (using the UK for an example) only say 4,000/day were testing positive earlier this year and more recently the figure was over 20,000/day - the very same holds true for the vaccine tests.

At this extremely early stage (typically 12-15 months before the normal end of Phase III trials) the figure is looking great at 95% (in contrast to the AZ/Oxford figure's 62% for the 'non-error' planned trial). in a non-emergency use authorisation sense - the Phase III trial is around the 1/4 to 1/6th the typical duration. So just as the figures for those testing +ve for CV in the UK jumped to around 5x the early year figures - it is quite possible that the results for the vaccines will drop (not everyone in the trials have been exposed to CV in such a manner yet).

That's why the 62% 'real' figure for the AZ/Oxford vaccine is so concerning. The mis-information by some who used the WHO saying 'any vaccine that provides better than 50%' would be used - is not about 'early Phase III results' but final figures.

Virus Maths #2

Probability that a family of 5 getting vaccinated with a 95% (likely at best final) efficacy ALL being resistent/immue to CV = 77% (0.95^5). So extremely likely that at least one in a family of 5 is vulnerable to CV (100% - 77% = 23% that not all are immune/resistent).

Using the AZ/Oxford figure of 62%, 9% chance that ALL are resistent/immune - so greater than 90% chance ALL are vulnerable, guarantees that at least 2 are (99.9999% probability).

An understanding of these probabilities should be common knowledge amongst the members & advisors of the medical panel - we can only hope that their communication with the 'National Cabinet' is crystal clear.

To do away with mandatory 14 day quarantine can be objectively calculated with numerous assumptions made. For example what is the cost on mental health vs social health? The vested interest groups (predominently businesses) unusualy are split.

Tourism & construction (mostly) want the borders open as soon as possible before more of them fail. Senior Q execs have around $20m personally riding on the earlier opening due to their long term options - if the opening is delayed then the chance of Q not going into Administration is zero without a Fed Govt bailout which would also have to go to Rex & VA. It would also expose the Fed Govt to a class action by all those who lost out on VA going into Admin - a case they would likely win.

Those businesses with a more domestic focus would like the international borders to reopen ONLY if there was a near zero risk of another state or national lockdown. Realistically that is an early 2022 timeframe at best.

Scenario A: Imagine a family of 5 coming from country ABC where the CV positive rate in mid 2021 is just 2%. (remember some countries at the moment are >10% tests coming back positive, & in a few cases >20%). Unless all arrivals must be vaccinated & have some form of proof that cannot be forged then we would see similar numbers arriving who are CV+ as in the flights arriving today = guaranteed infectious arrivals. There is still a 1% chance that 1 in that particular family of 5 is infected even if the entire family was vaccinated with the 95% vaccine - even though there is a 23% chance that just one of them is not immune. ( 1 - P(all immune)). So whilst low risk of carrying CV before getting on the plane - they are at 100% risk of catching CV if exposed sufficiently.

Scenario B: Same flight but this time there has been a massive vaccination campaign in country ABC (as per Princess Fiona's post probability). Now the risk of CV+ people being on the flight is halved. So instead of say the 9 people in NSW international hotel arrivals quarantine who tested positive on one day recently - it could be 3 to 4 - per day across the 550/day arrivals so for typical long haul flight (in this example) - expect 2 people. For our family the risk that it is one of them goes from 1 in 100 to 1 in 200. Still the family have high chance that one of them is not immune.

The two examples above ass/u/me that airlines/people don't get complacent & stop requiring mask wearing for the bulk of the time, maintain massively increased on board cleaning (which with full planes means more staff on board). Social distancing will not exist on normal flying - that is the case within Australia for some months now with full or near full domestic flights.

The next Federal election must be held by mid May 2022.

Sadly, do the maths :(

Meanwhile the 'lobby groups' for Australian education facilities have shown their power:

The 63 students - from China, Hong Kong, Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia - covered the costs of the charter flight and Charles Darwin University will pay for their quarantine.

It will be the 18-year-old Rifqi's first time living overseas. He travelled from Jakarta in Indonesia to study cookery at CDU.


For some reason no main stream politician wanted to go on record about why International students should get in first!

So Rifgi's in Australia for Xmas whilst 34,000 Australian citizens & permanent residents can only dream of what it would have been like. A cookery course is more important after all.

With the growing backlog to return to Australia - it may make it even harder to leave vs the relaxation that began in August. The October arrivals/departure data should be out shortly. Remember there has not been any restriction on departures using a foreign passport which may go some way in explaining why the number wanting to return has been expanding - so dual nationals could rort the requirements, or try to.
 
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CityRail

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All the concern of Australia only being in a position to start vaccinating in March (i.e. some months later than the US and Europe) does not make much sense to me. Before Australia can open its international borders (which is the whole point of this thread) - the rest of the world needs to get Covid under control - as long as our borders are closed we're doing just fine (thank goodness).
It's definitely too late to have vaccines available from March when other countries can have it in December.

Yet I wonder under the current manufacturing progress in Melbourne, we should have get the first batch ready by January 2021?

Yet I am concerned to take Astrazeneca vaccine as their efficiency is too low (as low as 62%) that does not worth twice the pain to get it, maybe worth waiting for Pfizer to get vaccinated.

Anyhow, as I have stressed, once vaccine is rolled out, international borders must immediately open, at a bare minimum to Asian safe countries. There are far too much harm for families to be apart than Coronavirus itself, which has become weakened and less deadly already than in April.

Whether to open to US or EU will depend on more people getting vaccinated, but I think Australian government should purchase Moderna vaccine immediately to ensure we can fast track the staged reopening.
 

MEL_Traveller

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RAM - have you factored in the effects of the vaccine in reducing the severity of covid, if contracted? The flu vaccine is far from 100% effective, but I understand it can often reduce the severity of symptoms, preventing an otherwise death.

So the one family member might get covid, but that might not result in ICU or worse.

I'm prepared to live with that.
 

ayushamity

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Anyhow, as I have stressed, once vaccine is rolled out, international borders must immediately open, at a bare minimum to Asian safe countries. There are far too much harm for families to be apart than Coronavirus itself, which has become weakened and less deadly already than in April.

Have you thought if Asian countries would want to open up if they themselves are not vaccinated ?

There is no proof yet that the vaccines prevent transmission, so far we only know it prevents symptoms. So Asian countries might not want to open up to vaccinated travelers because the vaccinated travelers might transmit the disease to their citizens are not protected yet.

Case in point - Vietnam. I might get vaccinated in March (aged care) but I cannot go to Vietnam until they get vaccinated - which could be Q3 2021!
 

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