Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[oznflfan]

I don't think I'm being pessimistic. There are some here who think the announcement of a vaccine should be a green flag to return to normal. All I'm saying is that there is a still long way to go from announcing a vaccine to it actually becoming available to us.

Your prediction on a date for travelling to Europe with no quarantine on return (assuming vaccinated)?

 

[trevella]

Your prediction on a date for travelling to Europe with no quarantine on return (assuming vaccinated)?

Allowed to leave in December 2021 for return in or after January 2022.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

MEL will reopen to international air traffic from Dec 7.

At least some good news, our country's second largest airport open again...

 

[RAM]

As always the devil is in the detail.

It may well be true that the infamous "This time its different" comes to pass - that workable CV vaccines are delviered.

The emergency authorisations absolve the manufacturer from any liability PROVIDED they did not intentionly withhold information. It does not mean they have been found to:

• Have no long term side effects (that requirement is shelved to shorten time to delivery) which has been one of the reasons for no previously successful CV vaccines.
• Prevent infections - data so far (according to interview on ABC yesterday morning) is based on 'observation' not weekly testing. So no statistically reliable evidence. The vaccines may serve to delay or circumvert CV into asymptomatic infections for most - which could be the worst of all worlds. Turns more people into super-spreader so increases R value.
• Also due to reduced time frames - no data (for months to come) on how long it provides protection for.

Just like the 'official' line was we hope to open borders by Easter, June, July, late September etc etc - hope has to be provided. There is no difference with the current spin.

Most alarming news today - the worst President in history had a detailed national aged care plan out in the June Qtr. Australia's still does not exist. More to the point - there is a mandatory bi-weekly testing of all staff working in aged care as well as weekly mandatory testing nationwide in several other industries.

Hopefully the trouble in Adelaide may finally bring all the piecemeal approaches in Australia to a head once & for all. Otherwise Q will not survive past 30 June 2021 given they did not write-off $1 on nearly 300 of their planes in the last financial year.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I don't think I'm being pessimistic. There are some here who think the announcement of a vaccine should be a green flag to return to normal. All I'm saying is that there is a still long way to go from announcing a vaccine to it actually becoming available to us.

It's not the announcement of a vaccine that's the 'return to normal', but the actual roll-out. That's about to start in both the US and UK, and has maybe already started in other countries like China and Russia. Australia is expecting initial doses from March I think? So we should be looking at just a few months down the track from March to see restrictions being lifted (I think 17 June was the date when the government would have to renew the travel ban... I dunno how they'd go with that if the vaccine was already widely administered by then).

 

[Seat0B]

GLASS HALF EMPTY

Post automatically merged: Nov 20, 2020

GLASS HALF FULL

Or, glass twice as big as it needs to be!

 

[drron]

11 people found this completely fake news “Informative”?

Certainly not completely fake.My initial source was a medico who is part of the Tasmanian response to covid.The SA information was that it was the recently identified new strain responsible for the cluster.I am now assuming it was based on the lie from the pizza guy that his infection was due to just buying a pizza which would mean the outbreak had spread beyond the initial family group and medi hotel workers.That meant there was a chance of a massive increase in cases.
Now the SA Premier reversed his stand on the Tuesday when he criticised those closing their borders to SA to full lockdown 24 hours later.Plus the Victorian border closure and the Commonwealth CMO saying that SA was doing the right thing suggests they believed the situation was potentially serious.

But the fellow turning out to be a worker at the medi hotel and the pizza joint means it is much more unlikely that the virus had already broken out into the community.I still believe it was right to err on the side of caution but grateful that the situation wasn't as dire as first believed.

 

[CityRail]

So, approximately enough for anyone over 63.

I guess we can make a bit of a saving though, as WA and Qld don't have any virus, and will therefore offer to forgo it, to allow the rest of the country some breathing space.

Distribution will be interesting.

I think the National Cabinet has decided that the distribution will first go to healthcare professionals, followed by aged persons and people working in critical sectors.

I would say if Pfizer can provide 10 million doses from March, and millions from AstraZenaca possibly from January, we could see 30 - 40% of the population vaccinated by Easter, depending on the process of delivery from the Pfizer vaccine. If that's the case, I don't see why travel will still be banned from 17 March.

Yes I would agree that we need the vaccine to first roll out in order for borders to reopen, yet I would say we could be able to safely open the border to selected countries once we have the most vulnerable vaccinated, because we can ensure by then the probability from dying will be a lot of lower across the population.

I would propose once vaccines are available and approved, I predict this is the sequence in which the borders will reopen:

January/February - NZ and potentially Pacific Island countries
March/April - SE Asia, Hong Kong and Taiwan etc.
May/June - North Asia

Europe and US may need a higher rate of vaccination across the population to bring the virus under control, in this case, we might need to wait until later in 2021, yet I think Christmas in Europe/US in 2021 may be possible, depending on the speed of delivery of vaccines.

 

[SeatBackForward]

Your prediction on a date for travelling to Europe with no quarantine on return (assuming vaccinated)?

My prediction has no bearing on anything.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I would propose once vaccines are available and approved, I predict this is the sequence in which the borders will reopen:

January/February - NZ and potentially Pacific Island countries
March/April - SE Asia, Hong Kong and Taiwan etc.
May/June - North Asia

Europe and US may need a higher rate of vaccination across the population to bring the virus under control, in this case, we might need to wait until later in 2021, yet I think Christmas in Europe/US in 2021 may be possible, depending on the speed of delivery of vaccines.

Are these estimates from when the country in question will allow Aussies in, or when you think the Aussie government will allow us out?

Once we're out, not a lot to stop us travelling to any of the other countries, even Europe of USA.

 

[oznflfan]

I think the National Cabinet has decided that the distribution will first go to healthcare professionals, followed by aged persons and people working in critical sectors.

I would say if Pfizer can provide 10 million doses from March, and millions from AstraZenaca possibly from January, we could see 30 - 40% of the population vaccinated by Easter, depending on the process of delivery from the Pfizer vaccine. If that's the case, I don't see why travel will still be banned from 17 March.

Yes I would agree that we need the vaccine to first roll out in order for borders to reopen, yet I would say we could be able to safely open the border to selected countries once we have the most vulnerable vaccinated, because we can ensure by then the probability from dying will be a lot of lower across the population.

I would propose once vaccines are available and approved, I predict this is the sequence in which the borders will reopen:

January/February - NZ and potentially Pacific Island countries
March/April - SE Asia, Hong Kong and Taiwan etc.
May/June - North Asia

Europe and US may need a higher rate of vaccination across the population to bring the virus under control, in this case, we might need to wait until later in 2021, yet I think Christmas in Europe/US in 2021 may be possible, depending on the speed of delivery of vaccines.

Would love me a week's trip to Cambodia, or Vietnam or even Malaysia in a pinch, mid September next year!

 

[CityRail]

Would love me a week's trip to Cambodia, or Vietnam or even Malaysia in a pinch, mid September next year!

I am getting married to a Malaysian girl next month and I really want Malaysia's border to be opened soon so that we can go back to celebrate with her family.
Yet quite unfortunately there are lots of cases (about 1,000 a day) in Malaysia and I cannot foresee we will be able to go until they are vaccinated (possibly middle of next year)
I recall Malaysia has ordered some Chinese vaccines, unfortunately, as a Hong Konger, I just don't want my relatives in law to get this Chinese vaccine and I long for the border reopen so my parents-in-law can come to Australia and get the Western vaccines.

 

[oznflfan]

I am getting married to a Malaysian girl next month and I really want Malaysia's border to be opened soon so that we can go back to celebrate with her family.
Yet quite unfortunately there are lots of cases (about 1,000 a day) in Malaysia and I cannot foresee we will be able to go until they are vaccinated (possibly middle of next year)
I recall Malaysia has ordered some Chinese vaccines, unfortunately, as a Hong Konger, I just don't want my relatives in law to get this Chinese vaccine and I long for the border reopen so my parents-in-law can come to Australia and get the Western vaccines.

Unfortunately you are right, and mid next year may be best case. Malaysia is great, been there a few times, including Mulu over in Borneo. Direct flights to KL a bonus.

 

[Scr77]

Those two clowns don't understand even after we are fully vaccinated, and only allow vaccinated travellers in, COVID will still get in, we need to have faith in the vaccine and that it won't replicate or spread. Unfortunately for their state's residents, they may continue to block borders (not sure how they go blocking inbound oversea's planes) and look in envy at the rest of us travelling, maybe to select SE Asian countries at least initially, hopefully by end of 2021.

My understanding from ABC’s Coronacast is that the vaccines that have announced 95% effectiveness, treat the “spikes” so that you do not feel/suffer the effects Of the virus. So far, information is not available as to whether you can still spread the virus, even if vaccinated.

(I’m not a medical professional)

 

[OATEK]

I can envisage no vaccine, no travel until end 2022 or beyond. Personally I will push to the front of the queue for a jab if I can, to get to the UK by end 2021, but at this stage feel it is less than 50% chance (is that glass half empty?). I know people do have fears/phobias about everything from buttons to syringes, but find it hard to believe that anyone really keen for family reunion would baulk at a sore arm.

 

[Pushka]

I can envisage no vaccine, no travel until end 2022 or beyond. Personally I will push to the front of the queue for a jab if I can, to get to the UK by end 2021, but at this stage feel it is less than 50% chance (is that glass half empty?). I know people do have fears/phobias about everything from buttons to syringes, but find it hard to believe that anyone really keen for family reunion would baulk at a sore arm.

Even the world health (radio interview today with British sounding spokesperson) consider that at least three different vaccines will have been administered in sufficient spread for those being immunised to have completed that within 12 months.

 

[OATEK]

Even the world health (radio interview today with British sounding spokesperson) consider that at least three different vaccines will have been administered in sufficient spread for those being immunised to have completed that within 12 months.

I hope that comes off. I expect to receive the vaccine within a month or two of release based on risk factors, but it will be down to the government's risk appetite when.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Even the world health (radio interview today with British sounding spokesperson) consider that at least three different vaccines will have been administered in sufficient spread for those being immunised to have completed that within 12 months.

'Business' had a lot to say with the opening of domestic borders... pretty much 'open at all costs'. There's no reason to think they're going to sit back quietly while a vaccine is widely available but the government still says 'no' to inbound tourism, trips to trade fairs, selling of tour packages, etc.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I can envisage no vaccine, no travel until end 2022 or beyond. Personally I will push to the front of the queue for a jab if I can, to get to the UK by end 2021, but at this stage feel it is less than 50% chance (is that glass half empty?). I know people do have fears/phobias about everything from buttons to syringes, but find it hard to believe that anyone really keen for family reunion would baulk at a sore arm.

You might find it hard to believe but some people have unusual sometimes selfish views of the world.

 

[Flashback]

The Singapore / Hong Kong bubble is a bust, just like other similar measures around the world it's been delayed at the last minute. 2 weeks they say, but who knows. Similar happened with Thailand when theirs was about to open too. The only thing certain here is uncertainty.