Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

That means family members/partners cant be seen till 2022 ?

No. Vaccine plus treatments plus preventions plus rapid testing mean we’ll be travelling again from mid 2021.

 

[oznflfan]

I would largely agree with these dates, although I think Europe/USA/UK probably by end of 2022/early 2023.

I don't see how the US/Europe/UK will control this virus before sometime in 2022 and then eradicate - if that is ever possible - sometime in 2023. Winter is going to be a long, hard time unfortunately. And there is nothing that will fix this apart from a highly effective vaccine. Contact tracing is useless due to the number of cases and testing is not even close to anything it needs to be to make the virus more manageable.

In the UK scientists were predicting 50k cases a day close to Xmas if things keep going, and people thought that would be impossible - however 20 - 30k cases per day is now likely. France and Spain are already at 15k+ cases per day and rising fast.

Lockdowns in Europe and the UK are imminent - even though governments are trying to avoid this at all costs. The US is, well, a huge mess. Trump winning again will mean continued chaos for a while. If Joe Biden gets in, you would expect a better response and probably a quicker recovery.

Putting faith in an approved and reasonably effective vaccine by end of 2021, and administered to Oz and as much of the wester world world (will happen first irrespective) as they can by mid 2022.

I want to go to Europe for a holiday escape somewhere between July and September 2022, so crossing my fingers. Can be planned out many months in advance (as I tend to do), but booking and paying for (at least for the next 3+ years) will have to be last minute.

 

[DC3]

Jeez. You guys are pessimistic. That means family members/partners cant be seen till 2022 ?

Thanks for the nightmares tonight

Remember that these are mostly our wild, meaningless guesses and are not meant to be taken seriously.

 

[hb13]

Jeez. You guys are pessimistic. That means family members/partners cant be seen till 2022 ?

Thanks for the nightmares tonight

I would say it's realistic based on being here and seeing what is going on - I wish I was being pessimistic.

As I mentioned earlier - it depends on a HIGHLY EFFECTIVE vaccine - emphasis on highly effective. And the reasons for this are two-fold:

1. Cases in the UK/Europe/USA are completely out of control, getting worse and winter is still2 months away - undoubtedly, it will get worse in winter.
2. Australia has gone for a total eradication strategy and states with single digit cases are closed to each other - they won't allow anyone from a country that hasn't effectively eradicated - which is years away.

If two or three vaccines are approved this year, and administration of these is well into the millions by the end of the year, I do believe we will see borders opened up much earlier.

 

[dajop]

Jeez. You guys are pessimistic.

Worthwhile reading the first 10 or 20 posts from this thread. It seems most of those were wildly optimistic. Just two examples:

The PM indicated tonight that these restrictions will be in place for at least 6 months so realistically I don’t see any regular International travel until October 1st at best unfortunately

I think international travel will re-open in bits and pieces here and there. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll get a real picture of the damage in various countries for a month or so yet. And realistically, in Australia, we're only at the start of where this is going.

Having said that.
Parts of Asia: August or September
Parts of Europe: September or October
North America: Who knows, but it seems to have gotten away from them

 

[oz_mark]

Worthwhile reading the first 10 or 20 posts from this thread. It seems most of those were wildly optimistic. Just two examples:

LOL. I made the same comment on my own post a couple or months back

Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Every 'opportunity' for an individual business or an industry that relies on people coming together has an equal opportunity for death and suffering. It's really as simple as that. I don’t think it’s quite an equal opportunity for death and suffering (unless you are reporting from channel...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[ayushamity]

- they won't allow anyone from a country that hasn't effectively eradicated - which is years away.

Yeh I know. But I mean is that even sustainable ? Why is Australia so scared of Covid ? This is crippling the airline and tourism industry. How come there is no thought to that ?

 

[hb13]

Putting faith in an approved and reasonably effective vaccine by end of 2021, and administered to Oz and as much of the wester world world (will happen first irrespective) as they can by mid 2022.

I want to go to Europe for a holiday escape somewhere between July and September 2022, so crossing my fingers. Can be planned out many months in advance (as I tend to do), but booking and paying for (at least for the next 3+ years) will have to be last minute.

I think you should be ok to do that. And my timeline predictions are based on completely free travel, just like pre-covid times.

I think by 2022 there will be either a requirement to be vaccinated or a short quarantine/testing etc, making it easier for people to travel.

It just will be a while before we are able to travel without having to worry about quarantines and lockdowns etc.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

As I mentioned earlier - it depends on a HIGHLY EFFECTIVE vaccine - emphasis on highly effective.

I'm not sure it does?

If there's an effective prophylaxis that could also open up travel, in conjunction with testing/quarantine on return and treatments.

Edited: i see you have qualified your statement now with 'pre-covid completely free travel'. Agree: that's going to require either a vaccine or some other preventative measures.

 

[ayushamity]

The problem is that Australia hasn't learnt to accept Covid as a way of life whereas other countries with cases have. Australia is going on a limb here and is not aligning itself to other first world countries.

 

[hb13]

Yeh I know. But I mean is that even sustainable ? Why is Australia so scared of Covid ? This is crippling the airline and tourism industry. How come there is no thought to that ?

That is a great question - it is not sustainable and will cripple the travel industry. By the time we are past this, the travel industry may have barely made it through. A lot of people have already lost jobs, livelihoods, careers - and many, many more will.

The government needs to learn that this virus is here to stay - we need to live with it and manage that. But they're just sitting around waiting for a vaccine.

 

[Flashback]

The UK is about to start trialling testing to shorten self isolation to 5 days. Requires a negative PCR test within 72 hours of travel and then a 2nd one at the 5 day mark. Going to get pretty costly to travel.

This is what I feel the gold standard will be for the next 12 months at least.

For me at least, that kills off any short trips to Europe I had planned as the cost to benefit ratio is quite off so will just see more of the UK instead.

 

[hb13]

The problem is that Australia hasn't learnt to accept Covid as a way of life whereas other countries with cases have. Australia is going on a limb here and is not aligning itself to other first world countries.

Exactly.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

That is a great question - it is not sustainable and will cripple the travel industry. By the time we are past this, the travel industry may have barely made it through.

True. And tragic for those that have lost their jobs. But 9 out of 10 haven't lost their jobs. And they will travel once this is under control. The travel industry will rebound. I'm not sure that industry associations such as IATA, who are looking to support their members in government assistance,. are necessarily painting the most optimistic picture they can.

 

[Flashback]

But do keep in mind a lot of people outside of the travel industry have also lost jobs or had reduced hours/pay. That will mean lower demand. Keep in mind that those on AFF are not representative of the norm and while we may be likely to want to travel abroad etc. that's not necessarily a view shared by others. The true impact is not going to be felt on the economy for some years is my view.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But do keep in mind a lot of people outside of the travel industry have also lost jobs or had reduced hours/pay. That will mean lower demand. Keep in mind that those on AFF are not representative of the norm and while we may be likely to want to travel abroad etc. that's not necessarily a view shared by others. The true impact is not going to be felt on the economy for some years is my view.

The one in 10 have lost their jobs was whole of industry, not just travel IIRC? (Travel may be impacted much more.)

Lot's of folk have family and friends overseas, people will have special occasions, our front line staff will want a holidays. The airline industry is very good at generating demand.

 

[dajop]

The problem is that Australia hasn't learnt to accept Covid as a way of life whereas other countries with cases have. Australia is going on a limb here and is not aligning itself to other first world countries.

Australia is not alone though, the more sophisticated economies in East Asia seem to be adopting a similar approach. There seems to be a line somewhere east of India where accepting more than an a handful of cases is difficult unless there is no choice (i.e. Indonesia, Philippines). So Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, SW Pacific, Vietnam and arguably China seem to have a lower tolerance for COVID than elsewhere in the world. (nb: I left Amazing Thailand off the list, as well who on earth knows what their plan is or what level of COVID there is in the country )

 

[dajop]

But do keep in mind a lot of people outside of the travel industry have also lost jobs or had reduced hours/pay. That will mean lower demand. Keep in mind that those on AFF are not representative of the norm and while we may be likely to want to travel abroad etc. that's not necessarily a view shared by others. The true impact is not going to be felt on the economy for some years is my view.

On his nightly session on ABC News, Alan Kohler has presented some to reasonable recovery of the economy outside of Victoria. At the moment Victoria is dragging the nation down. No doubt the travel industry is in for pain, particularly those offering high value high margin "once in a lifetime experiences" to international tourist, they may need to rework their product towards the domestic market. In Victoria (if they are allowed to go on holidays) January business /booking is apparently booming!

But in addition to this, a much smaller migration intake (200,000 less) will impact other sectors of the economy.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Australia is not alone though, the more sophisticated economies in East Asia seem to be adopting a similar approach. There seems to be a line somewhere east of India where accepting more than an a handful of cases is difficult unless there is no choice (i.e. Indonesia, Philippines). So Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, SW Pacific, Vietnam and arguably China seem to have a lower tolerance for COVID than elsewhere in the world. (nb: I left Amazing Thailand off the list, as well who on earth knows what their plan is or what level of COVID there is in the country )

Perhaps the reason is because this region moved so quickly and seemingly successful in flattening curve that that has remained the goal despite worsening conditions in Europe, the subcontinent, Africa, Middle East and Americas.

 

[Happy Trails]

(nb: I left Amazing Thailand off the list, as well who on earth knows what their plan is or what level of COVID there is in the country )

I've been in Thailand since March and have no reason to doubt the official statistics.
Any time there's even a hint of an outbreak it's all over the news and social media; there's no way they could be concealing the numbers.

Thailand COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Thailand Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Having said that though, their recovery plan is all over the place with a new one announced just about every week.