Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

One rumour doing the rounds is that this agreement is also a back door way of getting agricultural workers into Australia hence why the NT will be up first as their mango season has begun.
So also a way to put further pressure on QLD,WA and Tasmania to open their borders if they want to help their agricultural sectors.
 
Laughable that Tasmania want to open to NZ but don’t want a bar of SA or other states. Plenty of people here that would love to visit Tasmania and would right now if it was open.
The only positive is that SA tourism is getting a big shot in the arm from within, Ive never seen the Adelaide roads as gridlocked as they were today with a mass exodus from the city starting early this morning for the long weekend. Most caravan parks and accomodation in regional areas are booked solid
 
Laughable that Tasmania want to open to NZ but don’t want a bar of SA or other states. Plenty of people here that would love to visit Tasmania and would right now if it was open.
The only positive is that SA tourism is getting a big shot in the arm from within, Ive never seen the Adelaide roads as gridlocked as they were today with a mass exodus from the city starting early this morning for the long weekend. Most caravan parks and accomodation in regional areas are booked solid
I hope some people make it out to Kangaroo Island. What happened with the fires is heartbreaking, my accommodation burnt to the ground.
 
Well that didn’t take long - ACT jumps onboard Trans Tasman Bubble

——

Australia - New Zealand travel bubble widened, with ACT joining from October 16


The new "travel bubble" between Australia has just been widened.

It had been announced yesterday that New South Wales and the Northern Territory were open to travellers from New Zealand from October 16.

Now the Australian Capital Territory has been added to the bubble.

The addition of the ACT will mean incoming passengers from New Zealand will be able to head to Canberra without quarantine.

It's expected that the first people to take advantage of the travel bubble will be those who are returning home to Australia or are coming here for an extended stay.

 
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Well that didn’t take long - ACT jumps onboard Trans Tasman Bubble

——

Australia - New Zealand travel bubble widened, with ACT joining from October 16


The new "travel bubble" between Australia has just been widened.

It had been announced yesterday that New South Wales and the Northern Territory were open to travellers from New Zealand from October 16.

Now the Australian Capital Territory has been added to the bubble.

The addition of the ACT will mean incoming passengers from New Zealand will be able to head to Canberra without quarantine.

It's expected that the first people to take advantage of the travel bubble will be those who are returning home to Australia or are coming here for an extended stay.

How rude?? After saying SA was next cab off the rank.
 
Excellent news for Australians stranded overseas as it will start freeing up a lot more capacity in hotel quarantine.
 
I didn’t see the original post (above) but saw later responses.
Surely that figure cannot be correct. A misplaced decimal point, perhaps?
Could you give a reference, please, RAM.

Crossed with dajop’s post.
On the same track. :)
I originally heard an address by Don Weatherburn (now retired), then director of the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics where he mentioned this among a number of other disturbing gems. I subsequently rang him to ask some further questions - one of which was how did the rest of Australia stack up to NSW's 1 in 10 dwellings figure. Some slightly better, some slightly worse, & one significantly worse.

If you look through the NSW BOC web site you will find lots of information that never gets mass media coverage.

I'll do the maths which makes it not quite as alarming - but still alarming enough!

Someone in 1 out of ten dwellings = avg people per dwelling = 2.7 (say) so that equates to one person out of 27 has served a custodial sentence or a little under 4% of population. You might then say - well take out the children...

However, there are many more children (under 18s) who've served custodial sentences than you may think. Many who go on to serve custodial sentences as adults unfortunately. But if for argument's sake we took out children then that would make 1 in 17 or 6%. Using the 92% being male figure someone quoted up thread (don't know if its correct) then that would suggest out of every 100 dwellings there would be 5 males & 1 female who'd served time in jail.

Now some families are 5th or 6th generation career criminals - so in their cases it could be 100% in that dwelling etc. In some areas they might be 2x the avg (so 1 in 5 dwellings) or even more. Other areas are less. Where we live is supposed to be a good area (our entire local suburbs NOT just our Neighbourhood Watch area).

However of the close to 30 people we've led to being arrested - all but 2 lived in our local area. When some years ago I altered how NW operated by aiming to scare the local criminals (this year's version shown though):
NW car theft prevention.jpg
Car thefts & dumping stopped entirely for weeks. Similarly, information we gathered about a suspected drug house (including registration numbers) saw it raided and subsequently confiscated & sold as proceeds of crime. No drug houses have operated in our area since - seems the local drug business learn a valuable (costly) lesson.

State Govts (of all persuasions) are doing their bit to increase crime it seems...
NW falling police numbers.jpg

For some reason RAM is privy to all sorts of information that can never be found in writing or accessed by anyone else. Like when it comes to the massive influx of foreign (worse still, non-Caucasian!) "close relatives".
Sorry to have upset you trevella. I prefer to report the reality, and not the spin, about issues. Not sure about 'can never be found in writing' though - NSW Auditor General must have read scotch mist then!

Generally my posts contain links & excerpts (often too many I've been informed) where they are publicly available. Some other information comes from past clients etc which often is not out in the public domain as the politicians do not wish it to be.

To the case in point (your example). Here's a piece reported by the SMH taken from the NSW Dept of Health about the origins of overseas travellers testing positive, it seems a good number are those dreaded non-caucasians you refer to. I merely refered to the DFAT figure that stated (lised in order largest down) which said as of 31 July 2020, there were a little over 25,000 Australians registered with DFAT as being overseas of which 18,800 (I think it was) wanted to come back to Australia in the next 6 months.

70% of those (in decending order) were in India, The Phillipines, South Africa & Vietnam.

Meanwhile much more recently another AFFer (last week) mentioned an article in the SMH based on info from the NSW Dept of Health to do with returning travellers. Did not mention anything about others (such as foreign nationals arriving for holidays or work such as Tom Hanks etc).

Just under 14 per cent were returning from Pakistan (109 people). Another 11 per cent came from the US (87 people), 8.8 per cent from Britain (69 people) and 8.5 per cent from India (67 people).

BTW - bulk of flights from India & Pakistan arrived in Melbourne prior to the outbreak - not Sydney.

From SMH:
Top 4 countries exporting COVID-19 cases to Sydney

Australians flying home from Pakistan, the US, Britain, India and cruise ship passengers account for the bulk of NSW's COVID-19 cases imported from overseas, as community transmissions slow to a trickle.

Sydney's network of quarantine hotels could soon become the last remaining foothold for the virus in NSW.

Travellers in quarantine have been the only new COVID-19 cases reported in NSW for six days straight.

On Thursday, NSW Health reported two new cases in returned travellers in hotel quarantine and a case of a man in south-western Sydney that the ministry believes is an old case only just detected.

With confirmed cases isolated and Sydney's COVID clusters burning out the virus is being starved of new bodies to infect, but Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant warned it is still circulating undetected and called for constant vigilance, especially in south-west Sydney.

Since March 29, there have been 786 confirmed COVID-19 cases among returned travellers. This includes travellers who arrived up to 14 days prior. Cruise ships, Pakistan, the US, Britain and India accounted for more than 58 per cent of COVID-19 infections in quarantine.

View attachment 229140
Cruise passengers and crew accounted for 16 per cent (125 people).

Just under 14 per cent were returning from Pakistan (109 people). Another 11 per cent came from the US (87 people), 8.8 per cent from Britain (69 people) and 8.5 per cent from India (67 people).

All four countries have been badly affected by COVID-19 outbreaks.

The US has recorded more cases than any other country, with more than 7 million people infected and 205,000 COVID-related deaths. India is inching closer to overtaking the US, with more than 6 million confirmed cases and roughly 80,000 deaths added to the total daily.

Britain recorded its highest daily number of new cases on Wednesday (4044) and an overall COVID-19 death toll of more than 42,000 people.

Pakistan is faring comparably well after flattening the curve in the past three months from its peak daily total of new infections exceeding 5000 to 747 on Wednesday and a total of 312,263 cases over the course of the pandemic.

But regardless of their countries of origin, all international travellers arriving in Sydney are treated as high risk.

More than half of NSW’s 4038 COVID cases are imported from overseas and 90 are travellers who contracted the virus interstate.

The majority of people diagnosed with COVID-19 in hotel quarantine are Australian nationals, a spokesperson for NSW Health said.

Australia was one of the first countries to implement mandatory 14-day quarantine for incoming international travellers.

Dr Chant has repeatedly said NSW's COVID caseload showed the hotel quarantine program was effectively detecting and isolating infectious cases, allowing contact tracers to focus on finding local transmissions.

Since March 28, all returned travellers have been shepherded from Sydney International airport to quarantine hotels managed by NSW Health and NSW Police.

All arrivals are screened at the airport and anyone running a fever or who has any symptoms are tested and referred to a “Health Hotel” managed by NSW Health.

People who were well and had no symptoms at the screening are sent to a quarantine hotel managed by NSW Police.

Everyone in hotel quarantine is tested on day two of their stay and again on day 10
. Anyone who refuses to be tested must remain in quarantine for an additional 10 days.

Before leaving hotel quarantine, everyone has a temperature check and an interview with a doctor about their health.

The last locally-acquired case in NSW was reported on September 25, a man in his 50s from a disability home that contact tracers suspect is linked to the Liverpool Hospital cluster.
Trouble is though that the numbers to do not add up properly....


Somebody is not telling the truth - the question being; "Is this deliberate or just incompetence/sloppy?"

In one part the number of CV returned travellers is 786 for NSW and goes on to detail that it actually covers travellers since March 15th (March 29 - 14 days previously). So it includes the Ruby Princess. Yet the subsequent break down of where they were from does not match up with the over 300 cases of people who returned on the Ruby Princess (March 17th) who were infected & live in NSW. Then you need to add in all the Ruby Princess crew who were infected.

Yet the figures state that cruise passengers & crew accounted for just 125 of the 786.

Later the article states that more than half of NSW's 4,038 CV cases are imported (aka overseas travellers), so more than 2,020 travellers.

786 is not the same as 2,020.

Really does demonstrate just how poor basic journalism has become.

Perhaps (& based on info not public domain) the difference is revealed with the reference to majority... Australian Nationals (which has been used to cover both citizens & permanent residents).
 

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For anyone that can stomach it - tonight is the 4 corners episode featuring that poor family that were stranded in Beirut, waiting to be able to get home to Australia when the port exploded and killed their child.

And still we have state premiers tinkering around with border clocks and state borders needlessly filling quarantine spaces with domestic travellers, blocking people like this from returning home.... c’mon....

 
Last edited:
As I pointed out on another thread NSW was classifying on average more than 100 cases per day between 22 and 31 March as from overseas.

That is how it gets to almost 1300 (31/3). It is now over 2000 today.

All ’transparently’ laid out through NSW Health daily media releases.


I can’t speak to the journalism.
 
Well that didn’t take long - ACT jumps onboard Trans Tasman Bubble

——

Australia - New Zealand travel bubble widened, with ACT joining from October 16


The new "travel bubble" between Australia has just been widened.


This is in line with my expectation as the Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble is just a few weeks delayed than my previous thought, and is only one way traffic for now.

I believe soon we will see the travel ban be lifted by Christmas and at a minimum we would be able to travel to NZ, Singapore and Pacific Islands.

Looking forward when we are finally set free from the lockdown thanks to the little flu. If Donald Trump can recover quickly from this little flu, so should everyone else and we should no longer fear about Coronavirus.
 
I originally heard an address by Don Weatherburn (now retired), then director of the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics where he mentioned this among a number of other disturbing gems. I subsequently rang him to ask some further questions - one of which was how did the rest of Australia stack up to NSW's 1 in 10 dwellings figure. Some slightly better, some slightly worse, & one significantly worse.

If you look through the NSW BOC web site you will find lots of information that never gets mass media coverage.

I'll do the maths which makes it not quite as alarming - but still alarming enough!

Someone in 1 out of ten dwellings = avg people per dwelling = 2.7 (say) so that equates to one person out of 27 has served a custodial sentence or a little under 4% of population. You might then say - well take out the children...

However, there are many more children (under 18s) who've served custodial sentences than you may think. Many who go on to serve custodial sentences as adults unfortunately. But if for argument's sake we took out children then that would make 1 in 17 or 6%. Using the 92% being male figure someone quoted up thread (don't know if its correct) then that would suggest out of every 100 dwellings there would be 5 males & 1 female who'd served time in jail.

Now some families are 5th or 6th generation career criminals - so in their cases it could be 100% in that dwelling etc. In some areas they might be 2x the avg (so 1 in 5 dwellings) or even more.

Thank you for confirming that you are--unsurprisingly--unable to substantiate your claim to the effect that

across Australia more than one person out of 10 has served a custodial sentence (jail time)
 
Somebody is not telling the truth - the question being; "Is this deliberate or just incompetence/sloppy?"

........

Really does demonstrate just how poor basic journalism has become.

Basic, or shaped by the interest of their masters to be like that? In the State of Victoria, the scrutiny and level of investigation of the government by journalists, particularly those from the Logan Roy ( 🤣 ) stable, is particularly intense, perhaps deservedly. Some other governments seem to be getting a free pass from the media, perhaps undeservedly.
 
Actually RAM both figures in the quoted article are probably correct.
The lower figures are those who tested positive in Quarantine.You can see that from your insert that just recently only 402 had tested positive in Quarantine.Originally they only tested if symptomatic.However people had arrived from OS before hotel Quarantine.
From 15/5 they tested asymptomatic people at Day 10 and from 30/6 asymptomatic people at Day 2.

The total number of OS acquired cases come from those prior to 29/3 and those diagnosed after leaving hotel quarantine.But also most likely close contacts of returned positive cases.

So your insert is dated 4/10.On 4/10 the Commonwealth data shows 2345 cases as acquired OS.
 
Actually RAM both figures in the quoted article are probably correct.
The lower figures are those who tested positive in Quarantine.You can see that from your insert that just recently only 402 had tested positive in Quarantine.Originally they only tested if symptomatic.However people had arrived from OS before hotel Quarantine.
From 15/5 they tested asymptomatic people at Day 10 and from 30/6 asymptomatic people at Day 2.

The total number of OS acquired cases come from those prior to 29/3 and those diagnosed after leaving hotel quarantine.But also most likely close contacts of returned positive cases.

So your insert is dated 4/10.On 4/10 the Commonwealth data shows 2345 cases as acquired OS.
Just a small correction

NSW initially tested symptomatic, then screened asymptomatic on day 10 (later upgraded to voluntary test, then later still upgraded to mandatory testI believe) and same with day 2 of asymptomatic (ie screened, voluntary test, then mandatory test)
 
This is in line with my expectation as the Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble is just a few weeks delayed than my previous thought, and is only one way traffic for now.

I believe soon we will see the travel ban be lifted by Christmas and at a minimum we would be able to travel to NZ, Singapore and Pacific Islands.

Looking forward when we are finally set free from the lockdown thanks to the little flu. If Donald Trump can recover quickly from this little flu, so should everyone else and we should no longer fear about Coronavirus.
I'd give it a fraction longer, and at least initially only NZ opens up for us. 17th Dec 2020 international travel ban by Scomo will be extended to 17th March 2021, just in case'' for both NZ and our benefit.

Reckon from 17th March we will be able to visit NZ.

Maybe 1st July this may be expanded to Pacific Islands. With so many other countries dealing well with COVID, namely Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia and similar we could look add more to this list in 2021. Massive issue with this is control, i.e. who enters that country that we 'approve' of. This is where travel bubbles fail, only one likely to truly work in Aust/NZ.

Relatively unimpeded international travel (think Europe and USA) by 1st July 2022.
 
I'd give it a fraction longer, and at least initially only NZ opens up for us. 17th Dec 2020 international travel ban by Scomo will be extended to 17th March 2021, just in case'' for both NZ and our benefit.

Reckon from 17th March we will be able to visit NZ.

Maybe 1st July this may be expanded to Pacific Islands. With so many other countries dealing well with COVID, namely Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia and similar we could look add more to this list in 2021. Massive issue with this is control, i.e. who enters that country that we 'approve' of. This is where travel bubbles fail, only one likely to truly work in Aust/NZ.

Relatively unimpeded international travel (think Europe and USA) by 1st July 2022.

I would largely agree with these dates, although I think Europe/USA/UK probably by end of 2022/early 2023.

I don't see how the US/Europe/UK will control this virus before sometime in 2022 and then eradicate - if that is ever possible - sometime in 2023. Winter is going to be a long, hard time unfortunately. And there is nothing that will fix this apart from a highly effective vaccine. Contact tracing is useless due to the number of cases and testing is not even close to anything it needs to be to make the virus more manageable.

In the UK scientists were predicting 50k cases a day close to Xmas if things keep going, and people thought that would be impossible - however 20 - 30k cases per day is now likely. France and Spain are already at 15k+ cases per day and rising fast.

Lockdowns in Europe and the UK are imminent - even though governments are trying to avoid this at all costs. The US is, well, a huge mess. Trump winning again will mean continued chaos for a while. If Joe Biden gets in, you would expect a better response and probably a quicker recovery.
 
I would largely agree with these dates, although I think Europe/USA/UK probably by end of 2022/early 2023.

I don't see how the US/Europe/UK will control this virus before sometime in 2022 and then eradicate - if that is ever possible - sometime in 2023. Winter is going to be a long, hard time unfortunately. And there is nothing that will fix this apart from a highly effective vaccine. Contact tracing is useless due to the number of cases and testing is not even close to anything it needs to be to make the virus more manageable.

In the UK scientists were predicting 50k cases a day close to Xmas if things keep going, and people thought that would be impossible - however 20 - 30k cases per day is now likely. France and Spain are already at 15k+ cases per day and rising fast.

Lockdowns in Europe and the UK are imminent - even though governments are trying to avoid this at all costs. The US is, well, a huge mess. Trump winning again will mean continued chaos for a while. If Joe Biden gets in, you would expect a better response and probably a quicker recovery.

Yes, here's what we're looking at over here in terms of lockdowns:

Note the 50k forecast was only based on doubling of doubling of doubling of cases.

It seems yesterday they worked out there were issues with their database in the UK and some cases weren't reported correctly, which is why yesterday's number was so high as it added on the missed cases.
 
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