How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

[lovetravellingoz]

when international flights resume later this year.

Except for New Zealand, and maybe a rare other country or two, I would be most surprised if there are any leisure flights this year to or from Australia. Vaccine excepted of course.

Air freight is still happening now and will continue to do so, plus some essential travellers.

 

[JohnM]

Except for New Zealand, and maybe a rare other country or two, I would be most surprised if there are any leisure flights this year to or from Australia. Vaccine excepted of course.

Even if, by some divine miracle, a vaccine is developed there is absolutely no prospect that it could be deployed at international scale this year. Fuggedit.

 

[p--and--t]

My guess is that international travel will be open in stages, where we will see NZ open first hopefully in June, followed by selected Asian countries with good quarantine measures such as Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan (and potentially Singapore) open in July/August, before opening the rest of the world by the year's end.

Extremely optimistic attitude, but my readings of the timelines to assess the data, tweak the regimes, reassess the data etc, very unlikely to occur in the time-frames you quoted.

Without a reliable crystal ball none of us "know", but will all have our own hunches that may or may not eventuate.

I would be quite concerned at the wisdom of the government allowing the moves you forecast unless some miracle occurs in the meantime. You never know the PM says he believes in miracles

 

[jakeseven7]

Newbie and first post, hopefully did right.

Even though more people and funding in medical history is going into COVID 19 vaccinology, I am pessimistic we will ever get one.

Assuming we successfully eradicate COVID 19 from this country by end of 2020, and this may occur given the current levels of control and pain happening Australia wide, my question is how will future international travel from Australia ever occur or be allowed IF A VACCINE IS NEVER FOUND, AND MOST OF THE PLANET HAVE WAVES OF COVID 19 INFECTIONS? (Let's not use visiting travellers coming into Australia just to simplify question and any responses).

1) THIS REQUIRES TECHNOLOGY NOT YET AVAILABLE - BEING INSTANT, RELIABLE AND NON INVASIVE COVID 19 TEST - Will we need a COVID 19 negative 'pass' certificate available prior to airport arrival/check-in/boarding?

There is already a test available that reliably generates results in 5 minutes. I’m sure even faster and better is coming too.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There is already a test available that reliably generates results in 5 minutes. I’m sure even faster and better is coming too.

If you mean antibody tests, then that shows if you have had it, and not if you have just caught it.

If so:
So if having had it is proven to provide immunity (jury out, but seems to suggest that this is probable), then safe to travel. If no immunity is proven then not helpful.
If negative, not safe to travel. (Well they could let you out, but you could catch CV 19 on arrival).

 

[k_sheep]

There is already a test available that reliably generates results in 5 minutes. I’m sure even faster and better is coming too.

Not at all reliable. And useless for diagnosing infection.

The 15 min one currently being spruiked has a 30% sensitivity in independant trials - that's right, it's much WORSE than flipping a coin.

 

[drron]

Not at all reliable. And useless for diagnosing infection.

The 15 min one currently being spruiked has a 30% sensitivity in independant trials - that's right, it's much WORSE than flipping a coin.

Exactly what was said when I had a chat to the infectious diseases physician and head of the ICU on Friday.They are over it and despair that we are putting so much faith in tests.

 

[tgh]

They are over it and despair that we are putting so much faith in tests

Can you please explain this, there are a lot of possible interpretations

 

[drron]

Most of the tests are not that accurate with a high number of false positive and/or false negative results.Their are several that have false results in 50% or more of patients.Very hard then to trust those results.

 

[JohnM]

I have a spare (sanitised) 20c piece if you need a safe coin to flip...

 

[Tiki]

My worst nightmare is that a vaccine is not developed and the borders stay closed. I don’t travel that often (2 or 3 times a year) but I live for those trips. I am not high risk now but nor am I a spring chicken. Based on my medical history, I would probably be asymptomatic or mild case. I wish some firm data would come out on if having it gives immunity.

 

[jakeseven7]

Not at all reliable. And useless for diagnosing infection.

You didn’t specify what test you were referring to so I don’t know what you are talking about

Post automatically merged: Apr 19, 2020

My worst nightmare is that a vaccine is not developed and the borders stay closed. I don’t travel that often (2 or 3 times a year) but I live for those trips. I am not high risk now but nor am I a spring chicken. Based on my medical history, I would probably be asymptomatic or mild case. I wish some firm data would come out on if having it gives immunity.

There’s a very good chance they might not crack a vaccine. At best a coughtail of reasonable antivirals maybe.

We need to start thinking about how we can live with this thing.

 

[tgh]

Some more glum news to brighten our Sunday….

Global analytics firm Clarivate took a look at vaccines from two companies that have entered clinical trials—Moderna and Inovio—and came to a sobering conclusion: It will take at least five years for either vaccine candidate to complete the development process through full regulatory approval. And neither company has a high probability of success, Clarivate told FiercePharma.

If the FDA granted the companies emergency authorizations—as it did for the malaria drugs chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine recently, without proof they could effectively treat COVID-19—that could cut the timeline short. But as SBV Leerink analysts recently pointed out, regulators tend to eye vaccine safety very closely, which is one reason why R&D timelines are longer for those products compared with drugs.

Don't count on a COVID-19 vaccine for at least 5 years, says AI-based forecast

Could a COVID-19 vaccine really be ready in 12 to 18 months? Global analytics firm Clarivate applied machine learning to leading vaccine candidates from Moderna and Inovio and made some sobering forecasts about both the FDA approval timeline and the probability of success.

www.fiercepharma.com

 

[Tiki]

You didn’t specify what test you were referring to so I don’t know what you are talking about

Post automatically merged: Apr 19, 2020

There’s a very good chance they might not crack a vaccine. At best a coughtail of reasonable antivirals maybe.

We need to start thinking about how we can live with this thing.

I understand the current restrictions are to protect the elderly and vulnerable. Why can’t these people be given personal Hazmat style protective suits to be worn when they go out? And let people who are less vulnerable choose whether to wear these suits or just accept the risk? Eventually enough people who voluntarily accept the risk will have a mild case, self isolate until its over, and then build a herd immunity? And then we can get the economy back to normal too.

 

[JohnK]

Discussing this with wife last night.

If there's no vaccine and this virus continues to wreak havoc around the world then that will be the end my international travel. I'm not taking any risks with auto-immune issues, diabetes and taking immunosuprresants.

If the virus starts to settle down then my wife and daughter can go to Thailand once a year but if it requires 14 days quarantine at own cost on arrival in Thailand and then 14 days quarantine on arrival in Australia that's not feasible either.

I'm a glass half empty person and believe our lives will never be the same again.

 

[desafinado74]

Personally i think that, if the virus is under control by the middle of this year,(ie. July/August) then both domestic and international travel will re start soon after, albeit in stages.

Also, there is no way that Australia should be in the current shutdown until a vaccine is found. The vaccine may never happen or it could be many years before it is developed. As long as some effective drugs have been developed to combat the virus, the country should be opened up again. Otherwise the economy and societal well being will be much more worse than now.

 

[davistev]

This has huge implications not just for leisure travellers but also for international commuters. I was travelling between the USA and Australia every month as I have a home, family, citizenship and incomes on both sides.

Luckily, most of my immediate family just happened to be in Australia when the borders closed and although we are very happy to be "stuck" in Australia (mostly due to the 14 day Federal NSW + 14 day S.A. quarantine rules), it would be much easier if there were direct international flights out of Adelaide so I would not have to do the 14 day quarantine twice due to flying into Sydney on United's SFO flight.

One thing is for sure, Australia is in a much better position than most countries and Australia also has a history of strict quarantine rules. I am under no doubt that Australia will insist on keeping the 14 day quarantine in place as well as a formal Covid-19 test for clearance. I also believe that Australia will stop paying for the 14 day hotel bill as travellers will now have enough notice to plan ahead.

As for rules and safety while in other countries - no bloody idea. Everything from Donald Trump's open up everything to Dutuerte Harry's shoot em dead approach. I think it is pretty safe to say that international leisure tourism is dead for a long tme to come. Tour at your own risk and expense but be prepared for the full 14 day quarantine later. For this reason, I only see people travelling for serious family reasons and essential business only.

It will be a different world. Interstate travel will need to re-open before any International travel happens.
Immigration would probably come to a halt especially since Australia's unemployment rate will be going through the roof. There would be no need for 300,000 new immigrants to Australia if there are over 1 million unemployed Australians. That would be a no brainer and good luck to any government that wants to continue with mass immigration. I can only see family based and specialist work visa immigration to continue.

Of course you cold believe China's Covid-19 numbers and go there. - Good luck!

 

[Mrsfefe]

I understand the current restrictions are to protect the elderly and vulnerable. Why can’t these people be given personal Hazmat style protective suits to be worn when they go out? And let people who are less vulnerable choose whether to wear these suits or just accept the risk? Eventually enough people who voluntarily accept the risk will have a mild case, self isolate until its over, and then build a herd immunity? And then we can get the economy back to normal too.

This is one of the commonest misunderstandings about current restrictions. While we wish the elderly and vulnerable all the best, the restrictions are primarily about protecting our hospitals and healthcare system from becoming completely overwhelmed. None of us have pe-existing immunity, and it is quite an infectious virus, and if everyone gets sick at the same time, you have Italy, UK and USA on your hands. The health system is overwhelmed.

And the result of that is that the other people who continue to get sick, with the usual diseases, can’t get care. No cancer surgery for the 30 year old mum with breast cancer/ melanoma, , no heart surgery for the 45 yo dad who has a heart attack, no IVF, no brain surgery, no aneurysm surgery, can’t get operated on quickly enough for appendicitis, bowel rupture, emergency Caesarian section. Imagine being in a car accident and arriving in an emergency department where all the corridors are full of patients dying of Covid 19. Not to mention the over 100 health care workers in the UK who have died because they didn’t have enough appropriate protective equipment. And down the track, when front line health workers walk away from their jobs en mass, unable to cope with PTSD. That is what we have dodged, and what other countries will suffer from.

And where is the proof this will ever lead to herd immunity? There is no herd immunity to the common cold or the flu. Maybe a vaccine will come, maybe not Maybe an antiviral will come, maybe not. Maybe we will all have to take our chances with the virus in the long run, and maybe more than once, but if the health system becomes overwhelmed at any stage, then lots and lots of patients who don’t have Covid19, and lots of healthcare workers, will suffer seriously too.

 

[p--and--t]

understand the current restrictions are to protect the elderly and vulnerable.

Wrong!

This is one of the commonest misunderstandings about current restrictions. While we wish the elderly and vulnerable all the best, the restrictions are primarily about protecting our hospitals and healthcare system from becoming completely overwhelmed. None of us have pe-existing immunity, and it is quite an infectious virus, and if everyone gets sick at the same time, you have Italy, UK and USA on your hands. The health system is overwhelmed.

And the result of that is that the other people who continue to get sick, with the usual diseases, can’t get care. No cancer surgery for the 30 year old mum with breast cancer/ melanoma, , no heart surgery for the 45 yo dad who has a heart attack, no IVF, no brain surgery, no aneurysm surgery, can’t get operated on quickly enough for appendicitis, bowel rupture, emergency Caesarian section. Imagine being in a car accident and arriving in an emergency department where all the corridors are full of patients dying of Covid 19. Not to mention the over 100 health care workers in the UK who have died because they didn’t have enough appropriate protective equipment. And down the track, when front line health workers walk away from their jobs en mass, unable to cope with PTSD. That is what we have dodged, and what other countries will suffer from.

And where is the proof this will ever lead to herd immunity? There is no herd immunity to the common cold or the flu. Maybe a vaccine will come, maybe not Maybe an antiviral will come, maybe not. Maybe we will all have to take our chances with the virus in the long run, and maybe more than once, but if the health system becomes overwhelmed at any stage, then lots and lots of patients who don’t have Covid19, and lots of healthcare workers, will suffer seriously too.

Pretty sure I heard one of the state health ministers say in the last week >50% of the covid hospital patients were people under the age of 50 who had no prior medical history of note. Can't remember which one, been so many press releases etc.

If you are older or previous medical condition more likely to die, but the people not in that group can still take up a hospital bed for several weeks and end up with a lifetime of lung damage. Its not that simple to just lock up the oldies in a compound and everyone else will be sweet.

 

[JohnK]

I understand the current restrictions are to protect the elderly and vulnerable. Why can’t these people be given personal Hazmat style protective suits to be worn when they go out? And let people who are less vulnerable choose whether to wear these suits or just accept the risk? Eventually enough people who voluntarily accept the risk will have a mild case, self isolate until its over, and then build a herd immunity? And then we can get the economy back to normal too.

Would there be enough protective Hazmat style suits for all the elderly and vulnerable when they are out and about?

And what happens when a strong young person who takes a risk and chooses not to be protected and is somehow infected and they in turn infect another young person who then goes home and infects elderly parents or family?

We don't know very much about this virus. And until we know more we should really forget travel and bucket lists and as a society try and survive until we find some solution.

Spoke to mum earlier tonight. She feels like she is reliving the Greek civil war when she was 5-6 years old. I'm sure there are people who remember WW II and the Great Depression before that.

We will get through this but there's a chance our lives may never be the same.