How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

[lovetravellingoz]

We cannot expect to have zero cases which is what you suggested.

No it is not what I suggested.

You will have new cases amongst those that travel and go into quarantine. The more that travel, the higher the number of new cases.

You will have less new cases than if you just open the doors to unrestricted cases, but there is no scenario with zero cases as:

• The minimum going forward would have sea and air freight continuing just as it is now (just look online at the maps that track ships if you doubt how much sea traffic is still happening) as well as some essential travellers, and in time travellers for compassionate reasons. Some of these people would get infected.
• There are Australians overseas at present who will continue to return to Australia, most likely over many years as many are in no rush to return. Some of these people on return may well be infected.

In time other people will be allowed to travel. Some of these will generate new cases.

In my scenario all of the above will re-enter via quarantine. There will be however be some mistakes, outliers and even illegal entries such as drug smugglers and so there will be occasional hotspots that will need to be acted on.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

In SA the person was out of quarantine and tested positive much later. and during which time they had returned to normal life. So it didn't capture it. That's my logic.

Much later?

People can test positive but no longer be contagious.

What is important is whether a person is still a spreader (ie contagious) or not. There are guidelines on when people are no longer thought to be contagious.

Quarantine periods are set to prevent transmission.

 

[Pushka]

Much later?

People can test positive but no longer be contagious.

What is important is whether a person is still a spreader (ie contagious) or not. There are guidelines on when people are no longer thought to be contagious.

Quarantine periods are set to prevent transmission.

From what I read it wasn't the next day but at least a few days. Maybe weeks? I got the impression it was prior to the hotel quarantine period and at the time prior when people just had to self isolate, so that was implemented late March? Because they would have done that interstate then travelled to SA then been required to do another 14 days and in which case all would have been fine. But they'd been out and about. . And around 40 people were asked to go into self isolation as a result of extended contact. They only tested positive this week when symptoms occurred. Which was the loss of smell and taste.

 

[drron]

The problem with the mandatory hotel quarantine is that even with symptoms many are not tested.That is Pushka's point.And several have tested positive when back in the community.
On top of that there are definitely Asymptomatic cases that almost certainly can spread the infection.Senator Rex Patrick was one such person.

"SA Health has advised me that, despite being asymptomatic, my COVID-19 test has returned positive. I have assisted them with comprehensive contact tracing and they’ll call anyone considered at risk. Nonetheless, anyone concerned about contact with me can ring 1800 020 080 #auspol"

— Rex Patrick (@Senator_Patrick) March 23, 2020

It is good to see that all returning staff at the NWRH and NWPH will have to return a negative test within 48 hours of their return even if they tested negative earlier.Those that had a positive test will have to have 2 negative tests 24 hours apart.

So certainly every person leaving hotel quarantine should be questioned and temperature taken 48 hours prior to time being up and even the least symptoms needs a test to be taken.

The bottom line is that we still don't know everything about this virus and it's behaviour.
People have forgotten the swine flu.37500 cases in Australia with at least 191 deaths including some children.Only lockdowns were a few Nursing Homes.travel was not affected.

Swine flu - influenza A (H1N1)

Swine influenza, known as swine flu or influenza A (H1N1) is a respiratory virus which caused a pandemic in 2009. Find out about swine flu symptoms, treatment and vaccination.

www.mydr.com.au

 

[Pushka]

The problem with the mandatory hotel quarantine is that even with symptoms many are not tested.That is Pushka's point.And several have tested positive when back in the community.
On top of that there are definitely Asymptomatic cases that almost certainly can spread the infection.Senator Rex Patrick was one such person.

"SA Health has advised me that, despite being asymptomatic, my COVID-19 test has returned positive. I have assisted them with comprehensive contact tracing and they’ll call anyone considered at risk. Nonetheless, anyone concerned about contact with me can ring 1800 020 080 #auspol"

— Rex Patrick (@Senator_Patrick) March 23, 2020

It is good to see that all returning staff at the NWRH and NWPH will have to return a negative test within 48 hours of their return even if they tested negative earlier.Those that had a positive test will have to have 2 negative tests 24 hours apart.

So certainly every person leaving hotel quarantine should be questioned and temperature taken 48 hours prior to time being up and even the least symptoms needs a test to be taken.

The bottom line is that we still don't know everything about this virus and it's behaviour.
People have forgotten the swine flu.37500 cases in Australia with at least 191 deaths including some children.Only lockdowns were a few Nursing Homes.travel was not affected.

Swine flu - influenza A (H1N1)

Swine influenza, known as swine flu or influenza A (H1N1) is a respiratory virus which caused a pandemic in 2009. Find out about swine flu symptoms, treatment and vaccination.

www.mydr.com.au

I'd expected all international people to be tested prior to release and as close as possible to that date. I think that is now going to happen with the 800 people in Adelaide now who have arrived from India. Because of the failure of the system of not testing after quarantine.

 

[StevoQFtraveller]

on the upside, if its 2 years before we can travel again, thats 2 years of not travelling 2/3 times a year for me.
So my first trip when this is over I will have 4-6 times the cash available to blow on a massive bender - look out.

Providing you have a job to pay for it!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Has there been a case of someone who has been in effective quaratine (ie not self-isolation where they may have been breaching the rules or accidentally infected someone in the same household) who has been shown to have infected another person post quarantine?

The problem with the mandatory hotel quarantine is that even with symptoms many are not tested.That is Pushka's point.

And my point is what matters is whether they are still contagious, rather than if they still test positive.

The quarantine period period needs to be set for a duration so that people will no longer be contagious. As an additional measure if they are symptomatic they are kept longer though they may or may not be contagious. If that needs to be longer than 14 days then so be it.

However consensus seems to be that patients shed the virus for lengths of time that ranged from 4 to 10 days and that shedding is greatest early on.

I disagree with the assertion that quarantine is not working at all just because there may have been some cases where it did not work and further more if some later test positive. Some people stay positive for lengthy periods. A positive test does not in itself mean that someone is contagious.

And several have tested positive when back in the community.

But were they still contagious?

On top of that there are definitely Asymptomatic cases that almost certainly can spread the infection.

If you are stating that people are asymptomatic and can spread the virus when asymptomatic then yes that is known, but what has that got to do with quarantine not working? My understanding of how quarantine works for Covid 19 is that everyone returning from overseas is presumed to be infected, in large part because some carriers are asymptomatic. The quarantine duration has been set at 14 days as that is the length of time deemed necessary that an infected person would no longer be contagious and this can be released back into the community.

Now if the 14 days should be longer all well and good, but 14 days is the duration that they are currently using.

As tests become more available you might find with quaratine that everyone before leaving has to be tested twice.

Senator Rex Patrick was one such person.

The media reports on the Senator seem to suggest that he was not in quarantine, but rather contacted it from local transmission and then went into self-isolation.
It has been know since very early on that there is asymptomatic transmission.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'd expected all international people to be tested prior to release and as close as possible to that date. I think that is now going to happen with the 800 people in Adelaide now who have arrived from India. Because of the failure of the system of not testing after quarantine.

You can only test if you have the tests to do so. Who can be tested is continuing to expand. Remember to that the tests can be wrong either way.

As the quantity of available tests improve then more people who should be tested can be given tests. With quarantine it will eventually reach the stage of testing people as they arrive, and then two tests on the end of the 14 day period.


Describing it as a failure does not take into account if people are indeed still infectious or not. A failure would be if someone had been through quarantine and then infected someone else afterwards. Has this actually occurred?


Personally I would have more faith in quarantining everyone on return, testing no one and letting them all go 14 days later , than I would on testing them all on return and allowing all negatives to go. That will allow those where the tests have not worked back into the community.

 

[Pushka]

Describing it as a failure does not take into account if people are indeed still infectious or not. A failure would be if someone had been through quarantine and then infected someone else afterwards. Has this actually occurred?

It is too early to tell. Need to wait another 10 days for the 14 day period to end. I don't understand your last point though - even if post quarantine testing caught just one positive, or likely more if a family then that's better than what happens now which is nothing. I understand that someone also tested positive after ending quarantine, she did show symptoms but they were dismissed as not being indicative for a test. She presented for testing after quarantine and was positive. I think she was from NSW. Again too early to determine whether there was spread.

 

[drron]

Sorry but with hotel quarantine it usually is not 1 person per room.Indeed in the Sydney Hilton there was a family of 7 quarantined together.3 children tested positive.Now how do you prove that they were all infected at the start of the quarantine.Why couldn't say 1 parent be infected a couple of days before quarantine and then another infected whilst in quarantine then possibly another.So no way of knowing if 1 or more are infectious on release.

Besides the 14 day period is the Incubation period so most will develop symptoms by 14 days.And as has been shown there have been people released from hotels with symptoms and not tested.And there are people who do have a longer incubation period so possibly at their most contagious on leaving the hotel.

Although a person is usually most contagious in the day or 2 before symptoms develop they are still infectious for some time after the developement of symptoms.If they weren't then why are they wanting the tracking app as people basically are entered as positive after they have developed symptoms.Certainly in the NWRH and Anglicare Nursing home in Sydney the clusters are blamed on people with symptoms going to work.

And the other problem is there is a high chance of infected people in the quarantine hotels.there is a strong chance that the virus will be deposited in the common areas such as hallways and lifts.So it is possible for someone to be infected in the hotel.

And it is a failure if someone is released who could still be infectious even if no other case develops because of that person.That is why someone who tests positive is put into isolation isn't it?

 

[tgh]

So good Dr.. you are very strong on what you believe will not work...
Please don your hypothetical Prime Ministerial cloak and tell us what you would do for the next year.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Was just reading up on how the Kiwis are going generally and noted in that that the Kiwis with border control is that people self-isolate in the city they arrive in for for 14 days and test if symptomatic. They do not test upon release.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Sorry but with hotel quarantine it usually is not 1 person per room.

Usually? I very much doubt that random travellers are sharing rooms.

I would imagine that it would only be couples, families or close friends as in all people who had already been travelling together as a close unit.

Indeed in the Sydney Hilton there was a family of 7 quarantined together.3 children tested positive.Now how do you prove that they were all infected at the start of the quarantine.Why couldn't say 1 parent be infected a couple of days before quarantine and then another infected whilst in quarantine then possibly another.So no way of knowing if 1 or more are infectious on release.

I assume you mean this case:

a family of seven that had been isolating at the Hilton after an overseas trip were loaded into ambulances with COVID-19 symptoms.

Two of them have since tested positive.

Paramedics were seen transporting three children from the family on stretchers outside the hotel at around 10.00pm yesterday.

The family was taken to another hotel which is being used as a hospital, for testing and one adult and one child returned positive results.

NSW's chief medical officer Kerry Chant said those in the family who had not contracted the virus would remain in hotel quarantine.

Screams, cheers as first hotel quarantine travellers emerge after two weeks stuck in rooms

The first international travellers to be quarantined in Sydney's Swissotel are released after 14 days in their rooms, but 150m away at the Hilton, a family of seven are taken to hospital with coronavirus symptoms.

www.abc.net.au

If so, it would seem that the 2 infected cases went into additional quarantine at the hospital (hotel) quarantine with the remaining members remaining in extended quarantine at the hotel. So their quarantine clocks were all reset.


Is it not the case that all such cases have to serve a new 14 day quarantine period from the date of positive test, rather than date of original arrival?


In addition, is it not also the case that any close contact of anyone testing positive in Australia has to go into self-isolation for 14 day from the date of their last contact ?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well with zero deaths few new cases and with factories/business now being restarted, Vietnam has emerged as another possible future early travel destination. It is also close enough for direct flights.


Only 2 new cases since 17th April and both were students returning from Japan.

Vietnam Business Operations and the Coronavirus: Updates

Businesses in Vietnam need to prepare for an escalation of the coronavirus outbreak; measures by authorities may get enforced with little or no notice.

www.vietnam-briefing.com

Vietnam has reported no coronavirus deaths – how?

Intensive screening, testing, quarantine and public communication have helped keep numbers of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam very low.

theconversation.com

Vietnam confirms 2 new COVID-19 cases, 270 in total - Xinhua | English.news.cn

www.xinhuanet.com

 

[Lomandriel]

I think we are far from (if not never happening) a vaccine.

In the end I think the next few months will be coping and minimising the strain, now that covid is well known th efuture will likely need to be cautious travel and wary eyes quarantine and track down outbreaks in real time. The US, france, italy etc. are well aware of it now so future cases will be jumped on immediately.

It doesn't seem feasible to be able to fully eradicate this worldwide this year, and with travel being such a mainstream part of global trading things and people need to move around. No doubt this will continue, and we will have to accept the chance of low levels of infected in the years to come. Provided they don't lead to an undetected outbreak I think that will be the new norm.

The fact that no vaccine for other coronavirus exist I doubt one will be found. perhaps a way to stop it from damaging and killing people through the lungs and blood clots etc. as it has been will be developed. The issue with suggestions of young and healthy taking it front on for immunity: a few have died, and I certainly wouldn't like to roll the dice, even knowing i'm likely to be ok. The other issue is people have had long term lung damage from this... so even if you recover having permanently scarred lung capacity isn't high on my priority list. It would likely leave you (one day in the future) more likely to pass away from respiratory issues at older ages....

 

[CityRail]

Coronavirus vaccine testing begins, September due date

Oxford University this week began its human trials for a COVID-19 vaccine. The researchers believe they could be delivering a million jabs from September.

thenewdaily.com.au

There maybe a vaccine able to roll out by September, so perhaps that will be the time when everything will go back to close to normal?

 

[p--and--t]

Coronavirus vaccine testing begins, September due date

Oxford University this week began its human trials for a COVID-19 vaccine. The researchers believe they could be delivering a million jabs from September.

thenewdaily.com.au

There maybe a vaccine able to roll out by September, so perhaps that will be the time when everything will go back to close to normal?

Gotta love the optimists.

Got my fingers crossed they are right *but* history would say have a plan B.

I notice they say they will have 1M doses available, not the probable 60% of 7.7B required for the theoretical world wide "herd immunity".

 

[CityRail]

Got my fingers crossed they are right *but* history would say have a plan B.

I notice they say they will have 1M doses available, not the probable 60% of 7.7B required for the theoretical world wide "herd immunity".

Totally agree we need to have a Plan B. But with more than 70 candidates of a vaccine and the world is rushing for one, one can be hopeful that we will likely going to have one soon.

Yes, that would require possibly 60% of the world population to vaccinated, however I am hopeful that initial 1 Million can be manufactured a lot more by September and that can immune a lot more people than what we have now.

 

[drron]

Forget herd immunity with a vaccine.You may get 60% uptake in countries like China but it won't happen in India for example.

Take Australia's record on flu vaccination.In 2009 just over 50% of Australians had the flu shot despite the early appearance of the swine flu in the Northern Hemisphere.
By 2017 just 27% of Australian's had the flu shot and we had the worst flu season since 2009.
So was the uptake much greater in 2018?Not really.We once again got to just over 50%.

As for travelling overseas if there is a successful Covid vaccine then mrsdrron and I are the only ones who need to be vaccinated before we take off.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Take Australia's record on flu vaccination.In 2009 just over 50% of Australians had the flu shot despite the early appearance of the swine flu in the Northern Hemisphere.
By 2017 just 27% of Australian's had the flu shot and we had the worst flu season since 2009.
So was the uptake much greater in 2018?Not really.We once again got to just over 50%.

I bet flu shots are going gangbusters this year. When the pineapples trooped town to the doctors surgery last week (entering via the flu shot back door) the other people had not had a flu shot for years.

Social distancing etc. looking like it’s hammering this year’s flu curve even before shots

cheers skip