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How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

lovetravellingoz

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Putting aside vaccines, the other other possibly is the development of treatments.

It may also be proven that having CV 19 once may make one immune, or immune for a period of time (Not yet know of course). If so those that have had it may be free to travel.
 

drron

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Though it appears that with Sars, which occurred in 2003, that a possible a vaccine was developed quite quickly, but not tested:
The first human trial of a possible Sars vaccine was conducted in Beijing in December 2004, but by that time the epidemic was over, and research into other diseases was given priority so it was shelved.




And as you stated technology has advanced in leaps and bounds since SARs.
Yes a vaccine was found but it's testing in humans was only a phase 1 trial to see if it had any severe side effects.It was not tested for efficacy.So can't be called a successful vaccine.

Besides it caused a delayed allergic reaction in the lungs of the mice.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Ok one other way to resume international travel from Australia.

Firstly let us assume :
  • that catching CV19 makes one immune
  • that most of the rest of the world essentially gives up and allows CV19 to sweep though, open their borders and thus allow free entry into their countries
Australians may then choose to travel overseas but:
  • Understand that they may catch CV19 and will then have to bare the medical treatments and/or funeral costs if required (the younger and fitter one is the lower the risk, but even young and fit people have died). TI to cover would be cost prohibitive. The countries you travel to may thus require a bond or security.
  • On return if not immune they have to at their cost go into quarantine for 14 days.
So you can travel if you wish to play CV19 Roulette.
 

Pushka

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Excuse any ignorance, how do they still sell fares for later this year (US-AUS-US) if they know they will not be flying those routes?
Hey, cruise lines are still selling cruises due to depart in a few weeks even though cruises have effectively been banned in the US until mid July. And that of course, will then be expanded to July, August....they need the money from deposits to pay the refunds.
 

MEL_Traveller

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SARS infected 8000 or so people and 774 died. Was there a sufficient financial incentive to bust a gut to develop a vaccine? Whoever does one for CV-19 stands to make some good money.
 

JohnM

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With vaccine development costs probably around $US1B, it requires deep pockets before even thinking of making any money.
 

p--and--t

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Quite interested in what UAE are doing with some form of rapid testing that takes minutes that every passenger must partake before being allowed to board EK/EY

Bit suspicious as to how reliable it could be given how unreliable the other tests seem to be.

If a >99% reliable Rapid test was available then we could insist the test was done before boarding a flight to AU and again after arriving to be doubly sure and also the passenger sign a form (and prove they have sufficient funds) that they are totally responsible for all expenses on arrival including all medical and 14 days in isolation if any test came back positive at any time while in the country.
 
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MEL_Traveller

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If a >99% reliable Rapid test was available then we could insist the test was done before boarding a flight to AU and again after arriving to be doubly sure and also the passenger sign a form (and prove they have sufficient funds) that they are totally responsible for all expenses on arrival including all medical and 14 days in isolation if any test came back positive at any time while in the country.

That's one way to kill off your tourism industry :( And film making, international conferences and all sorts of other things we need to attract people here for. And how to prove they brought it with them and didn't pick it up while here?

I reckon it should be the reverse... countries establish reciprocal arrangements for the free treatment of CV-19 in public hospitals (unless otherwise covered by insurance).
 

JohnK

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There are just too many unknowns at the moment. We're doing OK in Australia but I'm not sure the same can be said for most countries. No vaccine yet, no real data yet on whether immunity will last and for how long.

I was hoping to visit Thailand again in February 2021 but if Covid19 is still around that's not a smart move. And I'm not too keen on spending 14 days in a hotel on return to Australia. And there may still be requirement to self isolate for 14 days in Thailand as well.

Feel sorry for my wife as I'm not too sure when we'll be able to visit her parents again.

Also I'm in a high risk category and I don't want to take any risks.
 

p--and--t

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That's one way to kill off your tourism industry :( And film making, international conferences and all sorts of other things we need to attract people here for. And how to prove they brought it with them and didn't pick it up while here?

I reckon it should be the reverse... countries establish reciprocal arrangements for the free treatment of CV-19 in public hospitals (unless otherwise covered by insurance).

It seems to me both NZ and AU are both heading for elimination.

Merely getting reciprocal medical rights would be stepping backwards and saying it's ok to reintroduce the virus and for a few more non travelling AU citizens to die a miserable death and continuously go into and out of lock downs in various parts of the country as outbreaks occur and cripple the economy.

My suggestion would be an interim measure until a vaccine is available and or a prophylactic is available or the world settles down again.

We need some measure to stop the current stand off with countries banning all human traffic and at the same time protect the population while the virus is potentially raging uncontrolled in some countries.

For example in China every single arrival gets carted off to a government hotel at the travellers expense for 14 days. This measure is in place for the foreseeable future.

At least by having a testing regime we could allow non-sick people in without mandatory lock down for 14days and they could get on with their business or holiday knowing they are in a "safe" destination.

We could end up in the interim until the world gets into some form of normality with people queuing up to come here as opposed to other riskier countries and simultaneously avoid a burden on our health system and already damaged economy.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I get that... but you were suggesting they self-fund $$ if they get sick here for hospital care, even though they could have picked it up on their first day here.

That would be a real blow to aussie tourism and industry.

Agree with the rapid testing... do it before boarding and again on arrival. But... if they were to somehow then contract while here, offer some sort of reciprocal health care. Followed by quarantine!
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Quite interested in what UAE are doing with some form of rapid testing that takes minutes that every passenger must partake before being allowed to board EK/EY

Bit suspicious as to how reliable it could be given how unreliable the other tests seem to be.

If a >99% reliable Rapid test was available then we could insist the test was done before boarding a flight to AU and again after arriving to be doubly sure and also the passenger sign a form (and prove they have sufficient funds) that they are totally responsible for all expenses on arrival including all medical and 14 days in isolation if any test came back positive at any time while in the country.


The UK have now developed a new rapid test that only takes minutes or less.

Though please remember that these antibody tests only show that you have had it already, and not if you are newly infected. So antibody tests cannot be used to replace quaratine.
 

Pushka

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Quite interested in what UAE are doing with some form of rapid testing that takes minutes that every passenger must partake before being allowed to board EK/EY

Bit suspicious as to how reliable it could be given how unreliable the other tests seem to be.

If a >99% reliable Rapid test was available then we could insist the test was done before boarding a flight to AU and again after arriving to be doubly sure and also the passenger sign a form (and prove they have sufficient funds) that they are totally responsible for all expenses on arrival including all medical and 14 days in isolation if any test came back positive at any time while in the country.
South Australia is doing a rapid test shortly to be used if someone arrives to hospital in respiratory distress.
Post automatically merged:

The UK have now developed a new rapid test that only takes minutes or less.

Though please remember that these antibody tests only show that you have had it already, and not if you are newly infected. So antibody tests cannot be used to replace quaratine.
I’m hoping my completely over reactive immune system and unknown exposure to Covid might work for me. I can dream.
 

p--and--t

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The UK have now developed a new rapid test that only takes minutes or less.

Though please remember that these antibody tests only show that you have had it already, and not if you are newly infected. So antibody tests cannot be used to replace quaratine.

Does that mean then antibody tests pointless to try and prevent outbreaks, travellers carrying the disease in?

What we need to something that gives us a high certainty of the traveller not being an infectious risk. From other posts on here it seems you can be carrying the virus for a month of more after the major symptoms abate and maybe not be infectious - the jury seems to be out on the latter aspect.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Does that mean then antibody tests pointless to try and prevent outbreaks, travellers carrying the disease in?

What we need to something that gives us a high certainty of the traveller not being an infectious risk. From other posts on here it seems you can be carrying the virus for a month of more after the major symptoms abate and maybe not be infectious - the jury seems to be out on the latter aspect.


Not pointless. There are many useful ways in which they can be used.

One big advantage is the scale that they can be deployed at, and the very quick results. This will help in looking for hotspots for example. Their use will also allow the calculation of how widespread CV19 is and will help to track trends. Whether people are still be infected etc. Lots of useful ways to be used.

They just are not useful to show if a person is currently infected. Just that they have had it in the past.

Also if research shows that having had CV 19 you are then immune either permanently or for a period of time then that will be useful too both for travelling and for say return to work etc. Plus for example will allow you to visit non-infected people.
 
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CityRail

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I wonder whether there will be extensive testing regime present when international flights resume later this year.
Initially, you may face lengthy delays at airports because some ports will require you to undergo COVID-19 testing, which may take an hour for the test to have a result, before you are allowed to board an aircraft.
You may also be required to show from a doctor a few days before departure that you don't have COVID-19 in order to obtain immigration clearance.
My guess is that international travel will be open in stages, where we will see NZ open first hopefully in June, followed by selected Asian countries with good quarantine measures such as Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan (and potentially Singapore) open in July/August, before opening the rest of the world by the year's end.
 
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