How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

[get me outta here]

I went from Iceland to Greenland. Iceland has CV, so is Greenland still safe? Just wondering.

Well I think Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark would currently be the only CV19 free destination.

Few other locations are likely to join them anytime soon. Hopefully Australia along with NZ.


So that would mainly just leave air-freight flights.

 

[Pushka]

I wonder whether there will be extensive testing regime present when international flights resume later this year.
Initially, you may face lengthy delays at airports because some ports will require you to undergo COVID-19 testing, which may take an hour for the test to have a result, before you are allowed to board an aircraft.
You may also be required to show from a doctor a few days before departure that you don't have COVID-19 in order to obtain immigration clearance.
My guess is that international travel will be open in stages, where we will see NZ open first hopefully in June, followed by selected Asian countries with good quarantine measures such as Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan (and potentially Singapore) open in July/August, before opening the rest of the world by the year's end.

Just my thoughts. International flights will only resume if there has been extensive and rapid testing. Possibly pre flight and possibly post. Quarantine in a facility at the travellers cost. I don't see that anything much will happen until November, NZ excepted but that person will need to have been in NZ for 14 days prior to arrival here.

 

[mushez]

I have been camp - there is no vaccine - since mid February.

It is a safe bet in my books to proceed in plans that no vaccine will eventuate. It is cruel trumping up peoples hopes that a vaccine is the solution - sit back and all will be good in 12 months.

I believe herd immunity may well be determined to be a non achievable target, with the ongoing re-infection rates - and how much exposure one needs and the cost of that to get close to herd immunity. Eventually the cost of herd immunity will be determined to be too high that it will in time be set aside.

So - my gut feeling that time will unveil this is a disease you don't want anyone to get - and over the years governments will eventually get to the view that eradication is the only solution and will be the path we all head down.

Flying? Will be a 14-28 quarantine after each flight crossing a boarder for the next 3-5 years. As the high price for eradication is at the forefront of politicians minds - the concept of allowing any one import it will see very limited options open to anyone to fly - and quarantines to be accepted. Air Fares will be triple the price. And many airlines will hit the wall as this all drags out for years.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I went from Iceland to Greenland. Iceland has CV, so is Greenland still safe? Just wondering.

As far as I am aware Greenland still hos 0 active cases.

There test rate of 20,257 /million population is also very high which gives confidence in their results.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 135,796,699 Cases and 2,934,646 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I have been camp - there is no vaccine - since mid February.

It is a safe bet in my books to proceed in plans that no vaccine will eventuate. It is cruel trumping up peoples hopes that a vaccine is the solution - sit back and all will be good in 12 months.

Whether we get it or not, i think in Australia that it is prudent to act in a way that we may. In 12 months time we can reassess.

I believe herd immunity may well be determined to be a non achievable target, with the ongoing re-infection rates - and how much exposure one needs and the cost of that to get close to herd immunity. Eventually the cost of herd immunity will be determined to be too high that it will in time be set aside.

So - my gut feeling that time will unveil this is a disease you don't want anyone to get - and over the years governments will eventually get to the view that eradication is the only solution and will be the path we all head down.

In Australia I think it is now clear that the Government having exceeded their Plan A expectations (or hope) which was to flatten the curve sufficiently so that our health system would be overwhelmed have now moved on to Plan B which is to eradicate CV 19 within Australia.

Flying? Will be a 14-28 quarantine after each flight crossing a boarder for the next 3-5 years.

Yes with no Vaccine, and even if having CV19 imparts permanent immunity (and it may not, or it may only impart it for several months) flying without quarantine would be limited to direct flights to only other countries that have also eradicated CV 19, and that most likely will be a very small list.

Flights and ships are occurring and will occur going forward for freight and essential travellers but crews either quarantine for 14 days, or will quarantine on arrival in Australia till they leave (I believe this is already happening for all aircrew. I don't know what they are doing for ships but would guess that no one gets off the ships).

Leisure international travel looks unlikely for the foreseeable future. Compassionate travel may be freed up. If having had CV19 does impart immunity it may be freed up IF the traveller agrees to pay all medical costs overseas if required and all quarantine costs on return. Note that with a population CV19 free the government would not want to rely on overseas testing to give people the all clear. A spin off for this would be to sloowly build up the % of Australians who have had CV19. The Travellers would still be risking death, lung damage and simply just from all reports is a very unpleasant experience for many. Young adults and children have died from CV19.

With few international travellers flying will be expensive.

As the high price for eradication is at the forefront of politicians minds - the concept of allowing any one import it will see very limited options open to anyone to fly - and quarantines to be accepted. Air Fares will be triple the price. And many airlines will hit the wall as this all drags out for years.

Eradication looks likely to be achieved in Australia quite soon. The problem is that it may not be achievable now in most other countries. Immunity form having had CV19 is as yet unknown, but sentiment seems to be that it is likely.

 

[jakeseven7]

UK to start testing coronavirus vaccine on humans

The UK's Health Ministry announces plans to start human trials of a coronavirus vaccine this week.

www.abc.net.au

 

[craven morehead]

Crazy times !

 

[PineappleSkip]

Greenland has had cases for a while, no deaths to date
Worldometer Greenland Coronavirus

I have been mulling the OPs question for a while. I am supposed to return to work in East Africa later in the year. Possibly as soon as June they claim (yeah I know, they’re dreaming). This year will be interesting indeed.

BTW I’ve spoken to US and EU based colleagues -surprisingly many - who are sitting tight in Africa. Good luck to that.

Also did some research on previous pandemics. Indications from history aren’t of a quick resolution to something as infectious as the rona.

cheers skip

 

[mushez]

Whether we get it or not, i think in Australia that it is prudent to act in a way that we may. In 12 months time we can reassess.




In Australia I think it is now clear that the Government having exceeded their Plan A expectations (or hope) which was to flatten the curve sufficiently so that our health system would be overwhelmed have now moved on to Plan B which is to eradicate CV 19 within Australia.




Yes with no Vaccine, and even if having CV19 imparts permanent immunity (and it may not, or it may only impart it for several months) flying without quarantine would be limited to direct flights to only other countries that have also eradicated CV 19, and that most likely will be a very small list.

Flights and ships are occurring and will occur going forward for freight and essential travellers but crews either quarantine for 14 days, or will quarantine on arrival in Australia till they leave (I believe this is already happening for all aircrew. I don't know what they are doing for ships but would guess that no one gets off the ships).

Leisure international travel looks unlikely for the foreseeable future. Compassionate travel may be freed up. If having had CV19 does impart immunity it may be freed up IF the traveller agrees to pay all medical costs overseas if required and all quarantine costs on return. Note that with a population CV19 free the government would not want to rely on overseas testing to give people the all clear. A spin off for this would be to sloowly build up the % of Australians who have had CV19. The Travellers would still be risking death, lung damage and simply just from all reports is a very unpleasant experience for many. Young adults and children have died from CV19.

With few international travellers flying will be expensive.




Eradication looks likely to be achieved in Australia quite soon. The problem is that it may not be achievable now in most other countries. Immunity form having had CV19 is as yet unknown, but sentiment seems to be that it is likely.

Eradication isn't something that happens in a matter of months - it is an 18 month process. Your assumption that any flights will happen in 2020 because of eradication and countries allowing flights because both achieved eradication is wishful thinking. Just not going to happen. We will all be shut down - either because the eradication path i an 18 month one - or we have flare up's as things were opened up for the sake of the economy and mitigation is the plan.

The burning desire to get economies back and working is going to result in eradication being put on the back burner - and drag things out more.

The asymptomatic aspect of this virus - makes it an enemy that is bloody hard to eradicate. We are no where close to suggesting eradication is around the corner in AU.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

 

[boxjelly5]

I think it’s way too early to be making predictions one way or the other. Simply too many variables in uncharted territory medically, socially and financially. So there are a myriad of possibilities that may unravel quicker than anyone can foresee or stop international travel for years.
If Australia/ NZ becomes a Covid safe bubble with other international travel more or less banned, I can see Gray Nomad numbers increasing exponentially. At least our regional towns will get a massive boost. So will motorhome rentals in NZ.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Airlines continue to be hopeful - or more likely just desparate for cash. Received this in an email from MH, in relation to existing bookings and (they hope) new bookings up to 30 June.

Effective immediately, Malaysia Airlines will be providing travel flexibility options as below:

• Unlimited Date Change (waiver of Date Change Fee, fare difference applies)
• Flexibility of Destination Change (rerouting from original ticket, fare difference applies)
• No-Show fee will be waived for travel within 2020 if you don’t turn up for your flight

All tickets must be rebooked by 31 December 2020 and travel must be completed by 30 June 2021.

So they claim that it will all be happening first half of next year, if it doesn't happen second half of this year

 

[CityRail]

Airlines continue to be hopeful - or more likely just desparate for cash. Received this in an email from MH, in relation to existing bookings and (they hope) new bookings up to 30 June.


So they claim that it will all be happening first half of next year, if it doesn't happen second half of this year

I think second half of the year is realistic if we don't see a third wave of outbreak.

However, that might come towards the second half of the second half of the year, i.e. December Quarter.

I am planning some trips in October to Hong Kong.

The only thing that we need to keep in mind is that vaccine takes time to develop, and we might never able to develop a vaccine at all, according to recent reports on the media. Therefore, the world cannot wait for 18 months for a vaccine to develop or we will risk ourselves into WW3 because lots of people will get starving.

I think what is the most important thing is that we need to find a cure as soon as possible so that we will be able to move on and allow the government to consider reopening our borders and let some of the international activities to continue whilst banning selected countries from coming into Australia whilst they are sorting themselves out.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Eradication isn't something that happens in a matter of months - it is an 18 month process. Your assumption that any flights will happen in 2020 because of eradication and countries allowing flights because both achieved eradication is wishful thinking. Just not going to happen.

1/ Greenland has already eradicated CV19. So there is already an example of less than 18 months.

2/ Personally I believe that New Zealand will eradicate CV 19 in the very near future.

3/ I would also believe that Australia will eradicate CV 19 not long after New Zealand does.

4/ However in other countries where CV 19 has become widespread it would be an extremely difficult task to eradicating CV19. SARS was eradicated in 29 countries in about 18 months or less depending on the country, but SARS was not as contagious as CV19.


Note: By eradication I do not include people that arrive in Australia with CV 19 who go into quarantine.

 

[Pushka]

1/ Greenland has already eradicated CV19. So there is already an example of less than 18 months.

2/ Personally I believe that New Zealand will eradicate CV 19 in the very near future.

3/ I would also believe that Australia will eradicate CV 19 not long after New Zealand does.

4/ However in other countries where CV 19 has become widespread it would be an extremely difficult task to eradicating CV19. SARS was eradicated in 29 countries in about 18 months or less depending on the country, but SARS was not as contagious as CV19.


Note: By eradication I do not include people that arrive in Australia with CV 19 who go into quarantine.

But we can't live like that for long - unless there is a magic cure? Or do you anticipate all travellers coming to Australia will undergo mandatory quarantine and negative testing prior to entry into the "real" world here - at their own expense? That would kill off business and recreational travel.

Have just seen that Qld has reported two new cases today - both were acquired overseas. Quarantine isnt working is it - this also happened in SA earlier this week.

 

[p--and--t]

But we can't live like that for long - unless there is a magic cure? Or do you anticipate all travellers coming to Australia will undergo mandatory quarantine and negative testing prior to entry into the "real" world here - at their own expense? That would kill off business and recreational travel.

One could argue that temporarily at least (maybe 18 months or so) some travellers may see that as an absolute benefit.

If they are fearful of countries where the virus is rampaging unabated, maybe going through their second wave or where there is significant civilian unrest (US?) or poor medical facilities (many countries) under extreme pressure (surprising new countries emerging Italy/UK/France et al), then a test to prove they are clean before/after arrival (with a risk they might be quarantined if they develop symptoms may be a big draw-card and a small penalty to pay to have a great relaxed holiday away from the madding crowds.

Additionally there will be more than a few countries with closed borders, unpredictable lock-downs etc for quite some time to come.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

But we can't live like that for long

Yes we can. The world keeps changing at this currently is now the new normal, until another new normal merges.

- unless there is a magic cure?

I am not a believer in magic cures.

Or do you anticipate all travellers coming to Australia will undergo mandatory quarantine and negative testing prior to entry into the "real" world here - at their own expense?

Yes. Until there is a vaccine and/or successful treatments developed.

What do you propose ? Widespread travel throughout the world without quarantine? That would seem to be me to be a way to increase cases and deaths/
In such a scenario do you really believe that 1/ travellers would be welcome and 2/ that tourist sites and infrastructure would be open and operating?

That would kill off business and recreational travel.

It would greatly restrict yes. But what other alternative is there?

Herd immunity alone means killing vast numbers as well as vast numbers with long term lung damage etc.

Have just seen that Qld has reported two new cases today - both were acquired overseas. Quarantine isnt working is it - this also happened in SA earlier this week.

So only 2 new cases in total?

I do not follow your logic. If they are in quarantine why is it not working? That is how quarantine works. No process is 100% effective. Even vaccines do not protect 100% (often it is dramatically lower).

If Queensland was not quarantining people they would have dramatically more than 2 new cases today.

 

[theblank]

on the upside, if its 2 years before we can travel again, thats 2 years of not travelling 2/3 times a year for me.
So my first trip when this is over I will have 4-6 times the cash available to blow on a massive bender - look out.

 

[desafinado74]

I suspect most international travel will resume by July 2021, since the Olympics is scheduled to start in mid July and the Euro 2020 soccer tournament will start in June 2021.

Thus there will be huge commercial pressure to resume international flights. And i am sure by then, most people are sick of such words such as social distancing, lockdowns, covid 19, flattening the curve , essential worker etc
and are itiching to resume normal lives.

Even the QF chairman on AFR today said that the federal and state governments must re open the economy ASAP. And i am sure deep inside, the federal and state leaders would want to re open the economy ASAP, even if no vaccine is developed. (I think drug treatments are good enough reasons for the political leaders to ease restrictions)

 

[Pushka]

Yes we can. The world keeps changing at this currently is now the new normal, until another new normal merges.

We cannot expect to have zero cases which is what you suggested. We have to learn to live with the fact there will always be cases and some very ill people and learn to live with reality.

I am not a believer in magic cures.

Neither am I, hence that is why I called it magic.

What do you propose ? Widespread travel throughout the world without quarantine? That would seem to be me to be a way to increase cases and deaths/
In such a scenario do you really believe that 1/ travellers would be welcome and 2/ that tourist sites and infrastructure would be open and operating?

The reality is that there will always be illness and deaths. That was never the purpose of flattening the curve. It was to manage the flow of people who needed ICU and ventilation.

It would greatly restrict yes. But what other alternative is there?

Herd immunity alone means killing vast numbers as well as vast numbers with long term lung damage etc.

The world has to learn to live with this virus. That means managing the health system to cope. If we can't start to likewise manage the economy in the same manner within the next 6-12 months then really the game is over.

So only 2 new cases in total?

I do not follow your logic. If they are in quarantine why is it not working? That is how quarantine works. No process is 100% effective. Even vaccines do not protect 100% (often it is dramatically lower).

If Queensland was not quarantining people they would have dramatically more than 2 new cases today.

In SA the person was out of quarantine and tested positive much later. and during which time they had returned to normal life. So it didn't capture it. That's my logic.

 

[Seat0B]

In SA the person was out of quarantine and tested positive much later. and during which time they had returned to normal life. So it didn't capture it. That's my logic.

I have heard other stories in the mainstream media (that I trust), but I forget exactly where now, saying that something like 98% of cases show symptoms by 12 days, which is where the 14 day quarantine comes from. Of course, that means that 2% of people may get symptoms later than the 12 days, meaning that a small percentage will test positive after quarantine. If that's a small percentage of a small number, not so bad. But if that is a small percentage of a large number, that is more of an issue.

I'm also still quite interested in the idea of asymptomatic carriers, which does not seem to get much attention/air time. For example, that village in Italy where 50-75% of the people who tested positive to COVID-19 were asymptomatic (BMJ article) and so had no idea that they had it. Same on that US Navy aircraft carrier (CNBC article), where a "significant number" had it asymptomatically. Everyone is expressing surprise that so many people had it without any symptoms.

So to bring my post back on thread, that really means we need a vaccine or herd immunity to make travellers safe from the virus because we actually don't know that it has been eradicated anywhere unless we literally test everyone - all we know is that it has been eradicated from people showing symptoms. And that has certainly been the focus here is Australia - in most states they are still only allowing people with symptoms to be tested. I feel like the asymptomatic carriers might be a bit of a time bomb. Maybe adequate treatments might be enough to allow travel for most people - but that links back to my earlier post about the need for travel insurance in case you get it whilst overseas for holiday, VFR or business and need treatment.