General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

Lynda2475

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A study by Oxford University

There is a PR problem with this though, given the same university who developed the AZ vaccine is the one saying nothing to see here move along. The findings would likley be trusted more if they came from a more independent source.

Edited to add: now it may just been poor writing, but that article seems to add the Pfizer and Moderna together vs AZ individually.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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With the clotting issue with covid vaccines, which ones are causing people to die? What are their current death rates from non-pre-existing risk of clotting?
 

Lynda2475

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From what Ive read the incidence of clotting following AZ may not be as high as clots caused from some other sources but the death rate of those that do get clots is much higher. In Australia we have had 3 AZ clotting cases in under 50s and one of those appears to have died 33% not great odds.

Also its not just about deaths. I understand why some would not risk a clot (and the trauma of being treated for one) when right now a younger person in Australia with no preexisting health conditiions, no work place exposure to Covid-19 and no Covid-19 circulating in the community the chances of them getting Covid-19 and dying from it are lower than than the blood clot risk.
 

drron

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Well I did think that all vaccines might end up with the risk of clots as early work in the EU suggests it may relate to the spike antibodies and all vaccines basically will produce those.

However those who develop clots due to the vaccines should be less likely to die than those who get them from non vaccine causes as they will be looked for and treated earlier.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Just on Denmark's actions;

Why is Denmark stopping the AZ vaccine?

Danish officials said that all 2.4 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine would be withdrawn until further notice.

The Danish Health Authority said studies had shown a higher than expected frequency of blood clots following doses, affecting about one in 40,000 people.

It comes after two cases of thrombosis in Denmark were linked to vaccinations, AFP reported. One of the cases, in a 60-year-old woman, was fatal.
Director General Soren Brostrom said it had been a "difficult decision" but Denmark had other vaccines available and the epidemic there was currently under control.

"The upcoming target groups for vaccination are less likely to become severely ill from Covid-19," he said. "We must weigh this against the fact that we now have a known risk of severe adverse effects from vaccination with AstraZeneca, even if the risk in absolute terms is slight."




So Denmark seems to be an outlier with a clot rate of 1/40,000 Which is about 6 times what some other countries have been experiencing. So why it is such an outlier is not yet known.

So no wonder that they have paused its use when they have other options.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I presume that both Canada and Denmark are acting on 'their health advice'.
On Canada:


and:

The National Advisory Committee on Immunization, which recommended March 29 that AstraZeneca not be used on patients under 55, will now meet to decide if that advice should be updated.

NACI issued a statement Wednesday afternoon saying it will update the guidance "soon" but for now the age recommendation stands.

All provinces agreed to follow that advice, which was based on the fact early reports showed women under 55 were getting clots more often, and the risk of COVID-19 is higher as you age.

The U.K. regulator recently said, like Health Canada, that the vaccine remained safe for everyone, but the British version of NACI recommended it not be given to people under 30, who have the lowest risk for severe illness from COVID.

Denmark on Wednesday became the first country to decide to stop using AstraZeneca entirely as a result of the clots.

The clotting syndrome has been labelled VIPIT, short for vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia. It occurs when the body's immune system begins to attack blood platelets, leading to clots, and is treatable.

Canada has had one VIPIT case reported -- a Quebec woman older than 55.

The number of doses given was 480,000 as of April 3. The figure is likely much higher now, as Canada has received more than 2.3 million doses of the vaccine produced in the United States, India and South Korea. But Sharma said Health Canada's analysis looked only at the 480,000 shots.

International reports show anywhere from one clot reported for every 40,000 doses given in Denmark, to one in 100,000 in Germany, and one in 250,000 in the U.K. Sharma said the general belief is that the incident rate will end up between one in 100,000 and one in 250,000.

"These are extremely, extremely rare," she said.

"The risk of ... regular clots with COVID is much, much, much higher."

 

lovetravellingoz

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With the clotting issue with covid vaccines, which ones are causing people to die? What are their current death rates from non-pre-existing risk of clotting?

As per my link just before:

International reports show anywhere from one clot reported for every 40,000 doses given in Denmark, to one in 100,000 in Germany, and one in 250,000 in the U.K. Sharma said the general belief is that the incident rate will end up between one in 100,000 and one in 250,000.

What the death rate is I have not yet seen it referred to., but will obviously be lower and probably much lower.
 

lovetravellingoz

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PS:


I have also just come across this from the UK.

The review by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) found:
  • The 79 cases and 19 deaths occurred after 20 million doses were administered - giving a risk of about four in one million of developing a blood clot, and one in a million of dying
  • Nearly two-thirds of the cases of rare clots were seen in women
  • The people who died were aged between 18 and 79, with three of them aged under 30
  • All the recorded cases occurred after the first dose, although the lower number of second doses meant it was not possible to draw any conclusions from this


Which also had:
Presentational grey line

Analysis: Should we be worried about a one-in-a-million risk?

No treatment or vaccine is risk free. The key question is whether it does more good than harm.
Wednesday's update once again demonstrates the AstraZeneca vaccine does - even if you assume it's causing these clots, which has not been proven yet.
The risk of dying from one of them following vaccination is incredibly small - about one in a million.
By contrast, Covid kills one in eight people who are infected over the age of 75, and one in 1,000 infected in their 40s among those who develop symptoms.
It is less clear cut for those under 30, who are much less likely to die of Covid - although the AstraZeneca vaccine still presents more benefit than risk.
However, other vaccines may be an even better bet.
The risk might look worrying, but it is actually very low, and usually we don't think about things just in terms of risk.
For example, travelling 250 miles in a car also carries with it a one-in-a-million chance of dying in an accident. How many think about that when they get behind the wheel?
 

jakeseven7

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As per my link just before:

International reports show anywhere from one clot reported for every 40,000 doses given in Denmark, to one in 100,000 in Germany, and one in 250,000 in the U.K. Sharma said the general belief is that the incident rate will end up between one in 100,000 and one in 250,000.

What the death rate is I have not yet seen it referred to., but will obviously be lower and probably much lower.

It will be very interesting to see the total blood clotting incidents and events from Pfizer and Moderna now people will be actively on the lookout for them as its been proven they also cause clots.

I hope the Feds got a really good price for the millions of Pfizer they bought that has the same issue as Astra.... sigh....
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Outside AZ, J&J, Pfizer and Moderna? All these four are now linked to clotting events.

I don't know if any more....
I thought the clotting numbers quoted earlier today are only Astra Zeneca.....so I was hoping for figures on Johnson and John, Pfizer, Moderna
 

lovetravellingoz

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I thought the clotting numbers quoted earlier today are only Astra Zeneca.....so I was hoping for figures on Johnson and John, Pfizer, Moderna


The risk of CVT was 8 to 10 times higher in the 513,284 patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis than in the 489,871 vaccinees and 100 times greater than in the general population. There were only two cases of CVT in the vaccine population, one after vaccination with the Pfizer vaccine and one after receipt of an undetermined mRNA vaccine. Patients younger than 30 years accounted for 30% of coronavirus-related CVT. The rate in the 172,742 flu patients was 0 per 1 million.

CVT in all patient groups was rare, at 39 per 1 million COVID-19 patients and 4 in 1 million vaccine recipients. The risk of CVT after COVID-19 was about 10 times higher than those from a single dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines and, according to the European Medicines Agency (EMA), about eight times higher than after the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine. (The researchers couldn't ascertain this in the study population because this vaccine is not in use in the United States.)

The death rate among COVID-19 patients was 20% for those who had CVT and 18.8% for portal vein (liver) thrombosis (PVT), which was assessed in the same populations.

The incidence of PVT was 436.4 per 1 million people with COVID-19, 98.4 per 1 million among flu patients, and 44.9 per 1 million after vaccination with the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. Twenty-two cases of PVT were diagnosed among vaccinees, 11 after the Pfizer vaccine, 2 after the Moderna vaccine, and 9 after a vaccine of an undetermined brand (either Pfizer or Moderna).



 

Matt_01

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I may have my maths wrong so correct me if I have this incorrect. Reading some of the media around clots the risk associated with getting vaccinated still seems to out weight risk of not. My simplified maths would suggest, based on today’s Worldometers reports:
  • Total Cases 139,677,575.
  • Total Deaths 2,999,410.
Rounding 3M:139.7M or around 2.1% chance of dying if you catch the virus.

For the vaccine side effect (clotting) the general consensus seems to be around 4:1M or 1:250,000 or around 0.0004% chance of dying. Another way of looking at this is if the 139.7M cases had been vaccinated that would suggest (139.7M x 4) 560 people may have died from vaccine the side effects.

My maths are simple and understand there are a lot of other factors however I would have thought 560 deaths is a better outcome than 3M, unless you are the one of the 560.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I may have my maths wrong so correct me if I have this incorrect. Reading some of the media around clots the risk associated with getting vaccinated still seems to out weight risk of not. My simplified maths would suggest, based on today’s Worldometers reports:
  • Total Cases 139,677,575.
  • Total Deaths 2,999,410.
Rounding 3M:139.7M or around 2.1% chance of dying if you catch the virus.

For the vaccine side effect (clotting) the general consensus seems to be around 4:1M or 1:250,000 or around 0.0004% chance of dying. Another way of looking at this is if the 139.7M cases had been vaccinated that would suggest (139.7M x 4) 560 people may have died from vaccine the side effects.

My maths are simple and understand there are a lot of other factors however I would have thought 560 deaths is a better outcome than 3M, unless you are the one of the 560.


4 blood clotting cases per million, for 140 million people is 560 clotting cases.

It seems that about 1 in 4 of such cases can result in death. If so 140 deaths vs 3 million deaths.

Plus as that 140 are susceptible to blood clotting from covid antibody reactions then without vaccination if exposed they would be a reasonable chance to die anyway.

Plus with such people it would seem that the clotting risk is 10 times worse if they actually experience Covid, and so the other 420 odd people may well also die if exposed.
 
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rogerkambah

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I may have my maths wrong so correct me if I have this incorrect. Reading some of the media around clots the risk associated with getting vaccinated still seems to out weight risk of not. My simplified maths would suggest, based on today’s Worldometers reports:
  • Total Cases 139,677,575.
  • Total Deaths 2,999,410.
Rounding 3M:139.7M or around 2.1% chance of dying if you catch the virus.

For the vaccine side effect (clotting) the general consensus seems to be around 4:1M or 1:250,000 or around 0.0004% chance of dying. Another way of looking at this is if the 139.7M cases had been vaccinated that would suggest (139.7M x 4) 560 people may have died from vaccine the side effects.

My maths are simple and understand there are a lot of other factors however I would have thought 560 deaths is a better outcome than 3M, unless you are the one of the 560.
Your maths may be correct, but covid in its worst form seems to be a nasty experience to have and possibly die from.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I may have my maths wrong so correct me if I have this incorrect. Reading some of the media around clots the risk associated with getting vaccinated still seems to out weight risk of not. My simplified maths would suggest, based on today’s Worldometers reports:
  • Total Cases 139,677,575.
  • Total Deaths 2,999,410.
Rounding 3M:139.7M or around 2.1% chance of dying if you catch the virus.

For the vaccine side effect (clotting) the general consensus seems to be around 4:1M or 1:250,000 or around 0.0004% chance of dying. Another way of looking at this is if the 139.7M cases had been vaccinated that would suggest (139.7M x 4) 560 people may have died from vaccine the side effects.

My maths are simple and understand there are a lot of other factors however I would have thought 560 deaths is a better outcome than 3M, unless you are the one of the 560.

But I think the age group is also relevant here. ‘Young’ under 50 is probably unlikely to die outright from covid. So the vaccine presents a risk that you might not otherwise have. If a young person dies from a clot after the vaccine, isn’t that a death that wouldn’t have otherwise happened?
 

OATEK

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But I think the age group is also relevant here. ‘Young’ under 50 is probably unlikely to die outright from covid. So the vaccine presents a risk that you might not otherwise have. If a young person dies from a clot after the vaccine, isn’t that a death that wouldn’t have otherwise happened?
This is over-simplified. What if the cause of the clotting is associated with the spike protein as some propose. Then if you can get blood clots from the vaccine, it is perhaps more likely you will get blood clots from Covid. So being unvaccinated and out in the real world where covid exists could still be more hazardous than having the vaccine. Now while we are Covid free I agree it is not the same risk assessment, but if as so many on here pine for, the borders are opened, then under 50s might find themselves in more danger rather than less by being unvaccinated.

We need to know more about the cause(s) of the clotting before we can have any chance of understanding risk.
 

jakeseven7

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This is over-simplified. What if the cause of the clotting is associated with the spike protein as some propose. Then if you can get blood clots from the vaccine, it is perhaps more likely you will get blood clots from Covid. So being unvaccinated and out in the real world where covid exists could still be more hazardous than having the vaccine. Now while we are Covid free I agree it is not the same risk assessment, but if as so many on here pine for, the borders are opened, then under 50s might find themselves in more danger rather than less by being unvaccinated.

We need to know more about the cause(s) of the clotting before we can have any chance of understanding risk.

Don’t feed the wildlife ;) Of course it’s massively over simplified.

Anyway it’s almost a good thing that all the vaccines in AU (Pfizer and AZ) are linked to clotting events because now it’s like Hobson’s choice just pick one and that’s that no more of this scare mongering.
 

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