General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

lovetravellingoz

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1/ I think one needs to remember that companies do not just build mRNA facilities and hope that they may be used. They also do not build these facilities for only short term use.

2/ They are Pharma Companies who develop their own products and then have the plants to manufacturer their own products. Pfizer has allowed one French company to manufacturer it for a temporary period. That was after that companies own candidate was delayed.

3/ Also it is not simply a matter of just building the mRNA Facility. A huge issue at present is also the extreme short supply of the specialised single-use consumable plastic bags that go into the reactor vessels during vaccine production are in short supply, and the equally rare specialised lipids that are required. Only a few companies in the world manufacture these specialised lipids. Without access to everything that you need you would have a mRNA facility unable to do anything.

4/ Building a new facility from scratch is a minimum of 6 months if you are a company that know what you are doing.

5/ So if you want a mRNA facility here you have to have a company with actual and/or potential mRNA products/candidates that they can manufacturer and sell to the world over the long-term. A 12 month manufacturing contract is not going to interest anyone to build a plant from scratch.

6/ The mRNA vaccines could have just have easily been the ones to have had a problem. Indeed they still may.
 
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mviy

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The governments have to make decisions with the best available information at the time. If they could go back to Feb 2020 I’m sure they would probably commission building a mRNA facility but they have to deal with the current situation and the benefits vs risks of setting up a facility urgently for it don’t seem to stack up when as lovetravellingoz says there are critical input supply issues to overcome and side effects of mRNA vaccines may yet emerge that could be worse than the AZ side effects
 

lovetravellingoz

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The governments have to make decisions with the best available information at the time. If they could go back to Feb 2020 I’m sure they would probably commission building a mRNA facility but they have to deal with the current situation and the benefits vs risks of setting up a facility urgently for it don’t seem to stack up when as lovetravellingoz says there are critical input supply issues to overcome and side effects of mRNA vaccines may yet emerge that could be worse than the AZ side effects


We could have decided on manufacturing here 12 months ago IF Pfizer were willing to do a deal which they may well not have been willing to, and not gone the CSL path with the two candidates. However it could equally have been the Pfizer vaccine that fell over.

With AZ it just happened that the AZ CEO lives in Sydney and went out of his way to do a deal with Seqiris (CSL) to manufacturer here in Australia. The Seqirus facility was also suitable for easy conversion for either AZ or the UOQ Vaccine (since abandoned).

So they went with what was practical and achievable for manufacturing in Australia, while also putting in place a contract to supply the Pfizer Vaccine from overseas as well. In addition other vaccines were also backed. Novavax etc.

Remember too that there is not an unlimited quantity of money to just throw at Covid 19.
 

MEL_Traveller

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So the head of Australia's TGA was saying the chances of getting a blood clot from the vaccines was rare and that 'the chances of winning lotto are much, much higher': Second Australian case of blood clots likely linked to AstraZeneca vaccination

Australia has had two cases out of 700,000 doses.

Ummm.... we are supposed to be trusting expert medical advice, that supposedly includes some sort of maths and science background? The chances of winning lotto are around 1 in 8 million for a standard 6 number draw.

If they can't get that right, what other things have they got wrong?
 

Pushka

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So the head of Australia's TGA was saying the chances of getting a blood clot from the vaccines was rare and that 'the chances of winning lotto are much, much higher': Second Australian case of blood clots likely linked to AstraZeneca vaccination

Australia has had two cases out of 700,000 doses.

Ummm.... we are supposed to be trusting expert medical advice, that supposedly includes some sort of maths and science background? The chances of winning lotto are around 1 in 8 million for a standard 6 number draw.

If they can't get that right, what other things have they got wrong?
The more relevant statistic is how many of those 700,000 were aged under 50.
 

ethernet

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Link?

There is already a capable facility planned for 2026. These facilities don’t grow on trees. Even if suitable existing buildings could be found and money was no object you’d still be looking at at least sometime in 2022 and quite probably later, and by then vaccine supply issues would most likely be resolved anyway.

It took CSL several months to get to the point of producing AZ and a new extremely different kind of vaccine would be expected to take much longer to prepare for when we don’t currently have facilities suitably equipped to produce it.
Really. Ask me again when Thailand and Israel have theirs up and running. And it hurts to hear Thailand was employing Australian talent to address Thailand only issues. Australia has Ross River Fever and 20 odd variants. Meanwhile the Germans are onto the clotting problem, and have developed a test. Australia has plenty of test ferrets left over, so we could go after the problem, and eliminate guessable commonalities over and above age. I speculate those who get 'colds' bad have a higher risk that those who take very little sick leave, and no prior anesthesia dramas.
 
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Seat0B

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So the head of Australia's TGA was saying the chances of getting a blood clot from the vaccines was rare and that 'the chances of winning lotto are much, much higher': Second Australian case of blood clots likely linked to AstraZeneca vaccination

Australia has had two cases out of 700,000 doses.

Ummm.... we are supposed to be trusting expert medical advice, that supposedly includes some sort of maths and science background? The chances of winning lotto are around 1 in 8 million for a standard 6 number draw.

If they can't get that right, what other things have they got wrong?
I have to admit, that's exactly what I thought when I heard this on the news tonight!
 

Must...Fly!

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So the head of Australia's TGA was saying the chances of getting a blood clot from the vaccines was rare and that 'the chances of winning lotto are much, much higher': Second Australian case of blood clots likely linked to AstraZeneca vaccination

Australia has had two cases out of 700,000 doses.

Ummm.... we are supposed to be trusting expert medical advice, that supposedly includes some sort of maths and science background? The chances of winning lotto are around 1 in 8 million for a standard 6 number draw.

If they can't get that right, what other things have they got wrong?
Did the person say which division of lotto was to be won....
 

ethernet

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Median patient age was 73 years (range, 52 to 87), 75% were men, and all had underlying medical conditions, the most common of which were coronary heart disease and asthma (50%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (25%). Many were obese, with a mean body mass index of 28.7 kg/m2

Then
The percentage of people who have factor V Leiden depends on the population studied. Higher percentages are reported among people of European ancestry compared to people from other continents. In the United States, factor V Leiden has been found in 5 percent of individuals of European ancestry, 2 percent of individuals of African ancestry, 2 percent of individuals of Hispanic ancestry, 2 percent of Native Americans, and less than 1 percent of individuals of Asian ancestry.
 

Must...Fly!

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Interesting as they are also groups highly at risk from serious complications if infected with COVID-19.
 

jakeseven7

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So the head of Australia's TGA was saying the chances of getting a blood clot from the vaccines was rare and that 'the chances of winning lotto are much, much higher': Second Australian case of blood clots likely linked to AstraZeneca vaccination

Australia has had two cases out of 700,000 doses.

Ummm.... we are supposed to be trusting expert medical advice, that supposedly includes some sort of maths and science background? The chances of winning lotto are around 1 in 8 million for a standard 6 number draw.

If they can't get that right, what other things have they got wrong?


Oh good let’s leap on a random PR powder puff soundbite and panic again like chicken little. Honestly why can’t people think calmly about this and really think it through....

If people are truly worried about these sort of things they should a look into adverse reactions to the flu vaccine....(which NEVER make the news).


Did the person say which division of lotto was to be won....

The chicken little draw ;)
 

Pushka

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Oh good let’s leap on a random PR powder puff soundbite and panic again like chicken little. Honestly why can’t people think calmly about this and really think it through....

If people are truly worried about these sort of things they should a look into adverse reactions to the flu vaccine....(which NEVER make the news).




The chicken little draw ;)
Indeed. I had AZ three weeks ago. Nothing much to report other than a general ache that Panadol sorted. Could also just be coincidental.

Had flu jab yesterday and feel very ordinary today.
 

ethernet

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Median patient age was 73 years (range, 52 to 87), 75% were men, and all had underlying medical conditions, the most common of which were coronary heart disease and asthma (50%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (25%). Many were obese, with a mean body mass index of 28.7 kg/m2

Then
The percentage of people who have factor V Leiden depends on the population studied. Higher percentages are reported among people of European ancestry compared to people from other continents. In the United States, factor V Leiden has been found in 5 percent of individuals of European ancestry, 2 percent of individuals of African ancestry, 2 percent of individuals of Hispanic ancestry, 2 percent of Native Americans, and less than 1 percent of individuals of Asian ancestry.
This is where the TGA and the Australian Government is killing off domestic medical research and R&D with a Capital M for manufacturing, and frightening the general population by gross generalizations known as 'sound-bytes'. The leadership performance is p**s poor compared to Israel. If Australia does not pick up, it will be AFF and the Airline industry carrying the can, and besides who cares about the Education sector dying in the *ss.

Wiser people want to know the specific AZ risks. The stoptheclot org's have identified and narrowed down the problem, and real AZ complication only need to be matched to the above. But oh, it is so politically incorrect to have doctors grouping advice by ancestry, which is also prevalent for races that develop cancers in different organs.

CSL will be swimming in unsold, unwanted AZ, unless TGA tells the truth based on available evidence, and blow political incorrectness. At least NSW is gearing up sports stadiums to deliver excess product, when the who category plan goes out the window.

I would push the button on this, yet am puzzled by the lack of Scottish clotting events reported, as event tracking there is robust ++. It may be the Scotts never like to see or tell a doctor anything, until it is real real bad. The TGA could ask the Chinese about clot events, and be proactive. At this stage , it looks like Asians are good for AZ, subject to underlying considerations, allergies and or obesity.
 
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mviy

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CSL will be swimming in unsold, unwanted AZ
Won’t that be the government? One would presume they would be contractually obliged to take delivery of what they have ordered. If not used here the doses could be offered to other countries in the region. I doubt AZ would have any objection to surplus doses manufactured in Australia being donated to e.g. PNG.
 

ethernet

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Won’t that be the government? One would presume they would be contractually obliged to take delivery of what they have ordered. If not used here the doses could be offered to other countries in the region. I doubt AZ would have any objection to surplus doses manufactured in Australia being donated to e.g. PNG.
Fresh is best. The govt is bad at storing stuff, so CSL would do a better job storing the refined concentrate before bottling - and get paid well for it. Today I heard .au has pretty well run out of syringes and needles(all imported), delaying front line delivery (I presume PNG would be low on needles). Then there was loose talk on launching a National Vaccine compensation scheme. Then talk on risk, where most people would think DELAY having their shot while there was a pong on AZ.

The name of the game is to abandon staged rollouts, and get shots into any willing arm, whilst keeping 1a and point of the spear frontline workers and partners looked after, whatever it takes to balance supply with demand.

AFF bottom line. There will be a surge in demand exactly 3 months before International travel is on the table. Say August if November travel is back on the books.
 

RAM

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Phase 1 A should have seen all receive at least one dose by now. With the number of injections over 1.2m... And over 1 millon Pfizer doses approved for injection after testing completed. 8 weeks deliveries have been approved and the latest is due for approval shortly bringing the number to 1.2m.

Total estimated in Phase 1A:
  • Q & border workers 70k
  • Frontline Health care 100k
  • Aged/Disability residents 190k
  • Aged/Disability staff 318k
Total 678k

Yet I know of a number (including a complete clinical team at a major Sydney hospital) who have still (as of Saturday) not been given an appointment for their first injection, as well as a large proportion of 5th & 6th Yr Med students who are part of 1A as well as JMOs and VMOs. However many adminstrators at the same major Sydney hospital have now had both injections.

Similarly, several national chains of Aged/Disability Care facilities have not had a single resident nor staff member receive their first injection including one group with just over 350 facilites nationwide - so it is not a 'State' issue in any way. Why could that be?

Time for the Auditor General to be called in to see what is really going on. One thing for sure both Price Waterhouse & McKinsey don't seem to be earning their millions received to date for consulting on the vaccine rollout.

As the Federal Govt had a little over 4m doses available for injection as of last Friday - some transparency could be embarassing.
 
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jakeseven7

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Looks like there will be lots of AZ and JnJ available soon...

Canada will be thrilled - they have just announced today that AZ is safe for use, by all. They are also in desperate need of vaccines so now EU doesn't want them, there will be lots of countries who do!

Meanwhile all this will achieve is the EU languishing for longer and probably out of bounds for us Aussies for longer too.

-----

Europe bets heavily on Pfizer in vaccine strategy overhaul​


Europe has hinted it will not renew contracts for coronavirus vaccines produced by pharmaceutical giants AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, in a new strategy that pivots heavily towards Pfizer and its new mRNA technology.

In a surprise statement on Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said negotiations were under way to buy 1.8 billion Pfizer-BioNTech doses for 2022 and 2023.


 

Flashback

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Also out of bounds for us in the UK too.. and that's our only real international holiday option so... It's looking from for us. Maybe USA and UAE will make it onto the green list. Even still, will require a PCR test on return so still a £60-120 tax on return. No freebies for those vaccinated so I expect rates will drop amongst the younger crowd.
 

Pushka

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Also out of bounds for us in the UK too.. and that's our only real international holiday option so... It's looking from for us. Maybe USA and UAE will make it onto the green list. Even still, will require a PCR test on return so still a £60-120 tax on return. No freebies for those vaccinated so I expect rates will drop amongst the younger crowd.
Green means ok to travel and self iso at home for how long? And how many tests? Is it likely to change for Green when late June is here?
 

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