General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

drron

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John Cambell of Youtube fame - well there are provisional UK figures that are unkind to AZ and Omicron. Is the acid test serious/ICU, moderate, or just transmissible? I believe serious or death is well covered if vaccinated. Both WA and China are on elimination strategy. And US is saying don't go to Spain which has higher vaccination rates than Au. The funny thing about USA is they had their shots early, so there just might be a U or double Bell curve for resistance levels. I wonder if long term vaccine hamsters/ GM ACE2 mice are being monitored for effects over time? My gut feeling is those >80-85 and or with co-mortality are the priority , adjusted for new treatment/drugs that we did not have before. It remains to be seen if nursing homes and the like have lifted their game.
There are also figures from Israel that are unkind to Pfizer.despite rolling out the fourth dose of Pfizer in the last week they have just had the highest daily cases numbers of the pandemic -75000 cases. Equal, when population differences are taken into account, of 210000 cases in Australia per day.
We just have to face the fact that with Omicron none of the existing vaccines are going to be the way out. Covid zero is now a failed policy if it wasn't already.
 

BAM1748

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An issue that had been on mind for quite a while, I'm finding people accepting age and other conditions as an "oh well" they were old, they had something else......we can't stop everything and accepting some deaths inevitable. This is coming from people I know, the way it's reported in the news and even dare I say, on AFF.

But I think we must try and stop and protect people regardless of age or underlying condition and not be so accepting. I really sympathise with the WA Premier as when he opens the board he is signing some peoples death warrant.

PS, have had my 3 shots.
 

OATEK

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An issue that had been on mind for quite a while, I'm finding people accepting age and other conditions as an "oh well" they were old, they had something else......we can't stop everything and accepting some deaths inevitable. This is coming from people I know, the way it's reported in the news and even dare I say, on AFF.

But I think we must try and stop and protect people regardless of age or underlying condition and not be so accepting. I really sympathise with the WA Premier as when he opens the board he is signing some peoples death warrant.

PS, have had my 3 shots.
As someone over 70, I do feel the risk from Covid, but have hope being triple vaxxed that I will not succumb. Like many of my age I have comorbidities that increase risk, but I also have an overwhelming need to live what is left of my life. That is why, being triple vaxxed, I am heading to the UK shortly, to be reunited with loved ones.

The key argument as I see it, is the level of excess deaths on other years. With flu suppressed, many at risk people are not being carried off by that, but by Covid. But providing the annual death rate is not alarmingly high against the recent past, then yes I think we have to accept it. And I can't help but feel that WA is putting off the inevitable, and that deaths will occur, like they do in flu season, whenever the border is opened.

And of course this does not even try to account for the excess deaths in coming years from people that have not received timely attention to heart disease, cancer and other illnesses that could lead to shortened lives. There is no easy answers, but hiding away just puts off the inevitable in my view.
 

Pushka

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As someone over 70, I do feel the risk from Covid, but have hope being triple vaxxed that I will not succumb. Like many of my age I have comorbidities that increase risk, but I also have an overwhelming need to live what is left of my life. That is why, being triple vaxxed, I am heading to the UK shortly, to be reunited with loved ones.

The key argument as I see it, is the level of excess deaths on other years. With flu suppressed, many at risk people are not being carried off by that, but by Covid. But providing the annual death rate is not alarmingly high against the recent past, then yes I think we have to accept it. And I can't help but feel that WA is putting off the inevitable, and that deaths will occur, like they do in flu season, whenever the border is opened.

And of course this does not even try to account for the excess deaths in coming years from people that have not received timely attention to heart disease, cancer and other illnesses that could lead to shortened lives. There is no easy answers, but hiding away just puts off the inevitable in my view.
Agree with this. One issue with the aged in care is that many likely would exercise their DNR, and people like mum would not want to have intrusive treatment nor even want to move from her care facility. Many deaths in SA have occurred in their home. They are exercising their free will to do so.

With restrictions to elective surgery I'm hearing sad stories of even cancer treatments being delayed until, whenever. There will be an epidemic of deferred health conditions that will surface in the months to come.
 

ethernet

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And this is why no politician will allow operational research numbers to be released: because that would reveal the present net worth of individuals, by age, set against the cost of remediation costs - and where the balance line is. Certainly delayed cancer treatments and Cat 1 have high costs as well.
There is an old saying in the GP's surgery - Loose weight, give up smoking drinking, cut out sugar and chips and other things you enjoy. The reply is 'Doc if I did that.. you get the picture. The correct response is Singapore, France and Austria that shift risk costs onto walking risks so normality can be resumed. As triple vaccinated - I am going to risk an OS trip because I think risk is about the same for highly vaccinated countries - and that mild Omicron is not going away
 

drron

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A lot more is coming out about the vaccines now. A lot is not positive. No vaccine maker has released the raw data from their trials meaning independent verification can't happen. Here are excerpts from a recent BMJ editorial on the subject starting with a warning of the problems when companies don't release information with a problem with the 2009 flu epidemic.

In the pages of The BMJ a decade ago, in the middle of a different pandemic, it came to light that governments around the world had spent billions stockpiling antivirals for influenza that had not been shown to reduce the risk of complications, hospital admissions, or death. The majority of trials that underpinned regulatory approval and government stockpiling of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) were sponsored by the manufacturer; most were unpublished, those that were published were ghostwritten by writers paid by the manufacturer, the people listed as principal authors lacked access to the raw data, and academics who requested access to the data for independent analysis were denied.

And the problem now with the 3 major vaccine manufacturers.
Pfizer’s pivotal covid vaccine trial was funded by the company and designed, run, analysed, and authored by Pfizer employees. The company and the contract research organisations that carried out the trial hold all the data.17 And Pfizer has indicated that it will not begin entertaining requests for trial data until May 2025, 24 months after the primary study completion date, which is listed on ClinicalTrials.gov as 15 May 2023 (NCT04368728).

The lack of access to data is consistent across vaccine manufacturers.16 Moderna says data “may be available … with publication of the final study results in 2022.”18 Datasets will be available “upon request and subject to review once the trial is complete,” which has an estimated primary completion date of 27 October 2022 (NCT04470427).

As of 31 December 2021, AstraZeneca may be ready to entertain requests for data from several of its large phase III trials.19 But actually obtaining data could be slow going. As its website explains, “timelines vary per request and can take up to a year upon full submission of the request.”

 

ethernet

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A lot more is coming out about the vaccines now. A lot is not positive. No vaccine maker has released the raw data from their trials meaning independent verification can't happen. Here are excerpts from a recent BMJ editorial on the subject starting with a warning of the problems when companies don't release information with a problem with the 2009 flu epidemic.



And the problem now with the 3 major vaccine manufacturers.


As I suspected. Like when 4 Corner's revealed the entire PBS panel resigned when the govt cooked up F1, and stocked it with tame fish. I believe the US also generously funded mrna research at the beginning, and a waved a contract for first in best dressed. Just another OISTB situation. We could go further back, to tobacco causes cancer denials. See More Doctors Smoke Camels Cigarette Ad Reproduction Metal Sign Y05 | Wish
And this is why UK, Israel and Denmark findings shoud have more weight - see FAA and 787 influence, and why stuff without peer review, should be discounted. Maybe carpetbagging is the right term here. Singapore established it own trials when they sawclaims not match real world numbers.
 

MARTINE

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As I suspected. Like when 4 Corner's revealed the entire PBS panel resigned when the govt cooked up F1, and stocked it with tame fish. I believe the US also generously funded mrna research at the beginning, and a waved a contract for first in best dressed. Just another OISTB situation. We could go further back, to tobacco causes cancer denials. See More Doctors Smoke Camels Cigarette Ad Reproduction Metal Sign Y05 | Wish
And this is why UK, Israel and Denmark findings shoud have more weight - see FAA and 787 influence, and why stuff without peer review, should be discounted. Maybe carpetbagging is the right term here. Singapore established it own trials when they sawclaims not match real world numbers.
Lest we forget the Purdue phenomena courtesy of the Sackler family with over half million Americans dead due to opiates
 

drron

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@JohnM
I knew Robert Clancy very well. He was 5 years ahead of me in Medicine and his initial training was at RPAH where I got to know him when a medical student and he was a tutor.
He then went to McMaster in Canada before coming back to RPAH as it's first clinical Immunologist where I again knew him.I then moved to Maitland in the Hunter Valley followed a couple of years later by Robert Clancy to Newcastle. We also shared an interest in historic maps.

He does know what he is talking about on mucosal Immunology .He was one of the first in the field and developed the first vaccine for chronic bronchitis -the Haemophilus Influenzae vaccine.

He has become quite controversial in the covid times with his support of HCQ and Invermectin. He basically has been cancelled. but a lot of what he has said about the vaccines is turning out to be correct. We live in interesting times.
 

Pushka

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Am I the only one who is somewhat concerned about having 5-11 year Olds vaccinated? There really doesn't seem to be any reason to have the vaccination for their health - but is done to prevent the spread to older people. But if that is the case (and I'm happy to be corrected) can we really ask this of the younger kids, and with a technology that I'm fine for older children and adults to have, is it really worth the risk
 
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drron

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And evidence is accumulating that we need to move on from the current vaccines. They are not producing a sufficient T cell response and new variant vaccines still using only the spike protein are bound to fail in stopping transmission.

first a technical paper on how previous infection with existing corona viruses -the common cold -give you partial protection from covid. Higher levels of existing T cell response in those who remain without infection when a close contact of a household member with covid.

And here the views of a fellow that headed 1 vaccine program during the SARS epidemic.
  • Given the immunity already established by the widespread natural infections of all the variants, and the large-scale vaccinations, should the authorities continue pushing vaccine mandates with the existing, less perfect, rushed vaccines?
  • Like the seasonal flu, if there is a need for a new generation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to reduce serious cases in a future endemic situation, what mechanisms are in place to ensure the rushed vaccines approach is not repeated?
  • Every vaccine has side effects. What are the side effects of the existing vaccines, and what safety measures will be in place to minimize such side effects in the next generation of vaccines?

And @Pushka there are now quite a few in the field worrying about vaccination of young children. They are worried that there is little difference between the incidence of serious covid in the unvaccinated and serious side effects of the vaccine in 5-11 year old. Particularly the incidence of myocarditis/pericarditis in males.
 

OZDUCK

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Trials of Omicron 'specific' vaccines are about to start in the US.

There is an interesting quote in the article - "In recent days, Prof Andrew Pollard, who led the development of the Oxford-AZ vaccine, said Omicron had spread at such speed that it was "quite difficult to make and deploy an updated vaccine quickly enough" to make a difference." Amongst other things he is the Director of the Oxford Vaccine Group

 

tgh

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quite difficult to make and deploy an updated vaccine quickly enough

A reminder that if this bug had been a little more lethal…the planet would be a fairly quiet place by now...
 

wandering_fred

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quite difficult to make and deploy an updated vaccine quickly enough

A reminder that if this bug had been a little more lethal…the planet would be a fairly quiet place by now...
In that case the deprecated OTC or repurposed meds that minimize the viral effects would not have been dismissed quite so quickly.

Not following the "party line" requires wandering
Fred
 

Pushka

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Interesting.

"New research has found fully-vaccinated people who catch Covid end up with ‘super immunity’ and ten times more antibodies than those who aren’t infected.
Dr Tafesse said the high levels of protection among those with hybrid immunity could see the virus become a ‘mostly mild’ infection and bring about the end of the pandemic.

“The likelihood of getting breakthrough infections is high because there is so much virus around us right now,” he said.

“But we position ourselves better by getting vaccinated. And if the virus comes, we‘ll get a milder case and end up with this super immunity.”

However, researchers warned that unvaccinated people are likely to catch Covid multiple times and their immune response is “much more variable”."


Likely paywalled.
 

jrfsp

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quite difficult to make and deploy an updated vaccine quickly enough

A reminder that if this bug had been a little more lethal…the planet would be a fairly quiet place by now...

Whatever happened to the delta specific vaccine?

By the time the vaccine is updated, manufactured, distributed and administered there will be a new variant.
 

drron

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Are they being provided with N95 respirators to keep them safe in their nursing home?

Oh dear…How do you ensure all the elderly, many in cognitive decline, wear their N95 properly and don’t keep touching their face /taking it off. If the general public have problems with masks how do you think the elderly will cope

fortunately giving me enough time to build an immune response before Omicron took hold in the state.
Hindsight is always 20/20.

I was no risk to the community at that point
I am a high risk patient (auto-immune disease taking immunosuppressants),
I’m not sure how you can say that. 2AZ + immunocompromised + evidence that 2Jab does not necessarily slow transmission.

It would be interesting to see what vaccine they got. Was it AstraZeneca, Pfizer or Moderna?
Why is that the only variables. What about Age, level of immunity, infective variant, existing comorbidities


Interested to know what people think this means re vaccine effectiveness in the context of very high vaccinations in community (NSW)
Very interesting there are several interpretations out there…


00DABE0D-7B6A-434B-A9A6-10FF2AD2B394.jpeg
 

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