COVID-19 in Japan and Japanese waters

[Pushka]

there’s been a bit of controversy in in Australia because a number of contract cleaners have received texts from their employer offering them a ‘free trip to Japan’ all PPE provided without explicitly saying it was to disinfect the diamond princess. TBF the pay seemed good at first but maybe not enough to compensate for the fact that you’ll probably end up in quarantine when you’re done with the job.

Of course, excellent point and not something to dismiss.

 

[SydneySwan]

Travelling on the first sailing of the "sanitised" boat sounds very much like being a pax on the first flight on the newly recertified 737Max...

No indication yet that you could combine the two on the one trip! Presumably the savings on the fares would be offset by the inflated insurance premium.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

Japan desperately tries to save Olympics amid fears of huge coronavirus outbreak

With the Olympics less than five months away, Japan is scrambling to restore public confidence in its handling of the coronavirus outbreak. More than 900 people have tested positive, but one doctor says the real number of cases could be much higher.

www.abc.net.au

Some experts, like Dr Masahiro Kami, believe the government does not want to know the full extent of the spread in the country.

"The Japanese Government wants to go ahead with the Olympics no matter what, so it doesn't want a large number of infected people," he said.

He said the situation feels to him like a "cover-up".

"I can say it's a cover-up. Not letting people take tests means it's a cover-up," Dr Kami said.

(...)

But Dr Kami, who is both a GP and runs the Medical Governance Research Institute in Tokyo, believes it is just the tip of the iceberg.

"Japan is testing very few people," he said.

"Because the number of tests is so small, I think they're failing to see [the actual numbers]."

Dr Kami fears the virus is spreading widely throughout the country.

"About 100,000 people get influenza in a year. I think currently the number of infected people could eventually be in the tens of thousands or few millions [in Japan]."

 

[disruptivedolphin]

Some idea of the geographic spread (Okinawa at the top left is of course actually down to the south):

 

[Batterytraveller]

My friend, who works for a Japanese university was coming down to Sydney next week, she just been told that the university has just imposed a travel ban.

(and here was me hoping that she would be my infection vector, I am young and not at risk and just want to get my two weeks of misery over and done with)

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Around 10,000 tests have been performed in Australia so far.

Number of tests performed in Tokyo Feb 17-26: 352

Seem reasonable to anyone?

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Well given the comments from the Japanese Infectious Disease expert who was on the ship for a day the quarantine practices were lacking

The guy was a freakin' hero for getting involved. And there are others who have been less visible.

@sjk has also been a freakin' hero, and I'm not just saying that because she's my boss. The story of this place still needs to be told more, but she helped get it out there:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/how-a-south-korean-psychiatric-ward-became-a-medical-disaster-when-coronavirus-hit/2020/02/29/fe8f6e40-5897-11ea-8efd-0f904bdd8057_story.html

 

[SydneySwan]

Around 10,000 tests have been performed in Australia so far.

Number of tests performed in Tokyo Feb 17-26: 352

Seem reasonable to anyone?

Australia is not holding the 2020 Olympics ..... at least so far

 

[lovetravellingoz]

My friend, who works for a Japanese university was coming down to Sydney next week, she just been told that the university has just imposed a travel ban.

(and here was me hoping that she would be my infection vector, I am young and not at risk and just want to get my two weeks of misery over and done with)

Just to be clear you are at risk, but yes the younger you are the lower the risk and moreso if you have no respiratory or immune system problems.

I am hoping that I am not exposed to Covid19 until I have been vaccinated.

PS My personal belief is that the current risk estimates are overstated as simply most people who have contracted Covid19, or have been resistant to catching it, have not been counted.

 

[Pushka]

Just to be clear you are at risk, but yes the younger you are the lower the risk and moreso if you have no respiratory or immune system problems.

I am hoping that I am not exposed to Covid19 until I have been vaccinated.

PS My personal belief is that the current risk estimates are overstated as simply most people who have contracted Covid19, or have been resistant to catching it, have not been counted.

I think there’s a mass of people out there especially young people, who have it without being in undue distress and who don’t even think of going to a doctor let alone the dr proceeding with a test.

 

[Matt_01]

I was not sure which COVID-19 tread to put this in so I will start here as we are headed to Japan in April but may be a bit OT.

For those countries that have had restrictions placed on them e.g. travel from china, Iran etc. Is quarantine or refused entry only applicable for those PAX who have come from the country as a start point or does it sweep up those who were in transit only. Although Japan is not on the list the same list as China, Iran ect we are stopping over for 1 day prior to heading to the US and if Japan is put on the restricted list we may consider cancelling or changing the flights. Also what happens if the entry rules once you are on route say after the plane has taken off but not yet arrived at the destination. I hope this makes sense and as there is still about 5 week before travel I am watching the US entry criteria with interest.

Edit. Also does anyone know are the countries that are testing passengers as for potentially being carriers or infected is this only occurring for those seeking to enter or are transit passengers also being tested.

 

[SydneySwan]

PS My personal belief is that the current risk estimates are overstated as simply most people who have contracted Covid19, or have been resistant to catching it, have not been counted.

I tend to agree. But you wouldn't count those resistant to it - indeed not sure how you could. However as a metric it would be really interesting to know this. I am not a medical person (although Mrs SS is) but looking at it statistically if we knew that x% of the population were resistant and x was reasonably substantial then we could all relax a bit. Or am I spouting nonsense?

 

[tgh]

All this sunny prognostication is fine.. but the hard reality remains that we do not have the facilities to manage the small percentage who become seriously ill.
Folks who are heavily immune compromised and aged tend to succumb quickly and only clog up the ic beds for a short time.
Based upon the Chinese experience , there will be another very large group who require hospitalisation but may not get it , and as a result become deceased.
I have seen no evidence of active preparation in au for this wave of ill people , we are not building tent hospitals.

The iceberg effect seems clear now , the bug has been steadily invading by stealth and has caught the whole world out.

 

[SydneySwan]

I was not sure which COVID-19 tread to put this in so I will start here as we are headed to Japan in April but may be a bit OT.

For those countries that have had restrictions placed on them e.g. travel from china, Iran etc. Is quarantine or refused entry only applicable for those PAX who have come from the country as a start point or does it sweep up those who were in transit only. Although Japan is not on the list the same list as China, Iran ect we are stopping over for 1 day prior to heading to the US and if Japan is put on the restricted list we may consider cancelling or changing the flights. Also what happens if the entry rules once you are on route say after the plane has taken off but not yet arrived at the destination. I hope this makes sense and as there is still about 5 week before travel I am watching the US entry criteria with interest.

I would be wary the most of the US changing the rules. IIRC, when Trump forbade travellers from a few countries coming to the US , it applied to people already in flight. I doubt most Western countries would behave like that.

 

[trevella]

@sjk has also been a freakin' hero

Amen to that.

Thanks sjk, and I hope the rest of your family makes it through OK.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I tend to agree. But you wouldn't count those resistant to it - indeed not sure how you could. However as a metric it would be really interesting to know this. I am not a medical person (although Mrs SS is) but looking at it statistically if we knew that x% of the population were resistant and x was reasonably substantial then we could all relax a bit. Or am I spouting nonsense?

My point was more that not everyone who is exposed to Covid 19 will be infected with it, and that the vast majority of those that do become infected will have no or only very minor symptoms.

Some are taking the current hospitalisation/mortality rates from cases and the projecting that quite wrongly in my view on total populations as to what will happen.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I have seen no evidence of active preparation in au for this wave of ill people

Well as the father of a daughter who works in the respiratory unit of a major Melbourne hospital I know that you are wrong. Covid 19 is very much being prepared for and indeed various measures are already in place.

They plan and prepare for various disasters. ie With the recent bad bushfire season much was put in place, though as it turned out most of it including for more extreme incidents was not required.

They are also having to deal with many known killers/ health threats that are already here, or as in the case of the flu soon will be.

With tent cities we are a long way off actually having to erect anything if it is required.

 

[Matt_01]

I would be wary the most of the US changing the rules. IIRC, when Trump forbade travellers from a few countries coming to the US , it applied to people already in flight. I doubt most Western countries would behave like that.

Thanks that is what I am concerned about as our annual Multi-Trip Travel insurance policy (issued by QF and underwritten by NIB) has the following general exclusion that states "A loss caused by, arising directly or indirectly from or in any way connected with any Government intervention, prohibition, or regulation." After talking to the agent it would seem like that if the US decides to restrict travel from Japan we would not be covered.

 

[Tropic]

I believe that's correct

 

[SydneySwan]

Thanks that is what I am concerned about as our annual Multi-Trip Travel insurance policy (issued by QF and underwritten by NIB) has the following general exclusion that states "A loss caused by, arising directly or indirectly from or in any way connected with any Government intervention, prohibition, or regulation." After talking to the agent it would seem like that if the US decides to restrict travel from Japan we would not be covered.

If you are travelling to the US via Japan as a transit passenger and you are concerned that the US may restrict passengers arriving from Japan then I would try to change flights to avoid Japan. I would not expect the current US administration to take a subtle approach and allow transit passengers in but would expect a blanket ban.

Going in the other direction I don't see Japan denying entry to passengers travelling from the US.

I am going to Japan in May for two weeks (direct flights to / from Australia). I would be very surprised if Japan denies me entry, I think the more possible scenario (not that I think it is very likely but it is certainly possible) is for Australia to make me self-quarantine on the return. It would certainly be inconvenient but not the end of the world although my travelling companion (my youngest cygnet) would be a little less sanguine. He knows it is a possibility but he is still extremely keen to go.