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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

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The Sky has not Fallen


New vaccine for COVID-19 released
The Moderna, Inc clinical stage biotechnology company announced releasing the first batch of “mRNA-1273”, the company’s vaccine against the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), for human use.


etc.....





US health officials say human trials on coronavirus vaccine to start in 6 weeks
 

p--and--t

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CDC Says Prepare For The SARS-CoV-2 Virus in The USA
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said during a telebriefing on February 25, 2020, 'the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has sparked outbreaks around the world could begin spreading at a community level in the USA.'
The CDC suggests businesses and families start preparing for mandatory quarantine orders and closures.



 

I love to travel

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CDC Says Prepare For The SARS-CoV-2 Virus in The USA
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said during a telebriefing on February 25, 2020, 'the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has sparked outbreaks around the world could begin spreading at a community level in the USA.'
The CDC suggests businesses and families start preparing for mandatory quarantine orders and closures.



Well if the US shuts down and closes its borders then the rest of the world will too. Don’t know about others but I am finding it really difficult to make an informed opinion on how bad this thing is. My 75 yo mother is asking me whether she should go on her planned 2 week holiday to Vietnam mid March and i honestly don't know what to tell her.
 

RooFlyer

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Just one thread free from this incessant mindless babble. Is it really too much to ask?

I don't understand this. I appreciated your contributions on the 'Japan' thread, but you gave it away. A shame. Now on the 'main' corona virus thread you complain about 'incessant babble' ? I hope you might continue to contribute positively, but if you are looking for some 'non virus' relief, there are probably a couple of hundred other threads on AFF to enjoy. :)

As for 'effect on (my) travel' - zero so far; am in the US, no worries so far - next to Europe, and then we'll see about Asia.
 
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reality ??

AU pop 24 million ( mostly living in clusters )

Hypothetical infection rate over the next 16 > 20 weeks ? .. let us say a very conservative 40% say 10 million….

Consider the current total CFR (based on very recent figures) of 2.3% … these deaths all in the next four or five months !!!!!

More : Patients who present with serious symptoms requiring hospitalisation ( again from recent figures) … 19% say 1.9 million in Au

Now take a deep breath and look up the current number of icu beds in australia AND ESTIMATE THE CURRENT VACANCY RATE

I opine that we are looking into hell……
Well there is glass half full, and then there is only having few drops in your glass. ;)


Remember that many, many people have Convid 19 than those who show up as a reported case.

China has a massive population and a lengthy period when little action was being taken and yet you are speculating Australia will be massively worse with 1.9 million people to be hospitalised.!
 
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tgh

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Time will tell and we can all hope that I am completely wrong.
Meantime there is an ostrich option or a boy scout option...
 
Joined
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Time will tell and we can all hope that I am completely wrong.
Meantime there is an ostrich option or a boy scout option...

I have posted since the start that the genie is out of the bottle and that it will spread. Containment is just an initial handbrake, deaths will occur etc.

My death rate is just several orders of magnitude different from what you are speculating.

China has 77,000 reported cases (ie not all hospitalised) with a massive population in a two month period with the first month being one of nothing being done.

Yet Australia will get somehow to 1.9 million hospitalisations in 16-20 weeks?
 

tgh

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I am just playing pin the tail on the donkey.
You are saying I am completely wrong.. thats fine, I hope you are right.
What are your numbers and timeline so we can compare scores after the game is over….
 

Antoallison

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CDC Says Prepare For The SARS-CoV-2 Virus in The USA
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said during a telebriefing on February 25, 2020, 'the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has sparked outbreaks around the world could begin spreading at a community level in the USA.'
The CDC suggests businesses and families start preparing for mandatory quarantine orders and closures.



Thanks for posting p—and t.
I have just listened to Nancy Messonnier’s lengthy talk and the Q and A that followed.
She has 25 years of clinical experience at CDC so her response is very measured and empathises the need for preparedness for ‘community spread’ issues.

She does state that the virus “ may be seasonal “ which would mean the coming Spring in the northern hemisphere will see relief from the spread. This is good news for travellers going to those regions.
However that would possibly mean that unless that vaccine is ready in a couple of months time, the flu season in Australia will see an increase in our numbers.
 
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I am just playing pin the tail on the donkey.
You are saying I am completely wrong.. thats fine, I hope you are right.
What are your numbers and timeline so we can compare scores after the game is over….
Your age group must be pertinent to that bet...
 

Himeno

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Agree in principle. Let’s talk reality. The vaccine is the best answer. But. This thing is unlike the normal flu. It spreads with no symptoms. For a long period before testing positive. A vaccine is a year away. It has to be developed, go through animal testing then a trial of Hunan testing, production and then distribution. We even run out of normal flu vaccine and thats only released to half the worlds geographic regions at a time (winter time).

The reality is that we cannot contain the world for 12 months. It won’t be worth opening it again if we did.

I thought it would be a World War that would be earths nemesis. Maybe this is it.
Why do you think that a vaccine is a year away?
There are a number of teams around the world working on a vaccine. A number of these are days to weeks away from testing.
They used the rVSV-ZEBOV Ebola vaccine in the West African and Congo outbreaks, as part of its testing, before the drug was approved.
They decide which flu strains to target, develop vaccines for those strains and manufacture millions of doses of that vaccine - every 6 months.
In the face of an epidemic, they won't do more then the minimal testing required to make sure a vaccine doesn't kill people and works on the virus, then they'll roll it out and leave refinement and more detailed testing for later.
If any of the vaccines currently being developed for SARS-CoV-2 prove effective during tests over the next month, they will likely be mass producing that vaccine within 4-5 months.
 

Lynda2475

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Why do you think that a vaccine is a year away?
In Australia, the Flu vaccine for the coming winter is usually released late March (mean our flu vac is already in production and wont include anything for Covid-19), with most people getting their jabs between March and May. Norhern Hemisphere may get a Covid-19 vax before their next flu season in Nov, but Aussies will have to battel through winter without specific strain being included.
 

Pushka

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Why do you think that a vaccine is a year away?
There are a number of teams around the world working on a vaccine. A number of these are days to weeks away from testing.
They used the rVSV-ZEBOV Ebola vaccine in the West African and Congo outbreaks, as part of its testing, before the drug was approved.
They decide which flu strains to target, develop vaccines for those strains and manufacture millions of doses of that vaccine - every 6 months.
In the face of an epidemic, they won't do more then the minimal testing required to make sure a vaccine doesn't kill people and works on the virus, then they'll roll it out and leave refinement and more detailed testing for later.
If any of the vaccines currently being developed for SARS-CoV-2 prove effective during tests over the next month, they will likely be mass producing that vaccine within 4-5 months.
Because that is the time frame given today by the team that has come closest to developing the vaccine has stated today. They are beginning human trials in 6 weeks. But they warned that is just the start of the testing process. I suspect the US won’t allow distribution to others until they are satisfied. Ebola is completely different in terms of fatality.
 

burmans

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reality ??

AU pop 24 million ( mostly living in clusters )

Hypothetical infection rate over the next 16 > 20 weeks ? .. let us say a very conservative 40% say 10 million….

Consider the current total CFR (based on very recent figures) of 2.3% … these deaths all in the next four or five months !!!!!

More : Patients who present with serious symptoms requiring hospitalisation ( again from recent figures) … 19% say 1.9 million in Au

Now take a deep breath and look up the current number of icu beds in australia AND ESTIMATE THE CURRENT VACANCY RATE

I opine that we are looking into hell……
The trouble I have with this analysis is you are having a bet both ways on the stats. The essential thesis of those claiming a pandemic is that the number of people diagnosed is way underestimated, I've seen plenty of comment that it could be 10 times or more. But also part of this thesis is that most of these have little or no symptoms and (its claimed) many may never show any signs of the virus. If this is the case then its also true that the death rate is grossly overstated (death being much easier to detect). It would also suggest that your %ge of people needing hospitalisation is overstated.

Both current stats on deaths/people infected and hospitalisation rates are based on 'known' infections and what is now being suggested is a much higher rate of 'unknown' infection.
 

tgh

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Not a traditional scientific method of prediction

Indeed….it was/is just a possible outcome based upon information /studies that appeared relevant.
The infection rate is the key… we will have a better idea how it spreads from locations where the infection reporting is believable.
So far we are doing nearly as well as Indonesia…..

..and just in case anyone is actually weighting my drivel..
I have no professional qualification in medicine.. zilch nada….
 

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