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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

tgh

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Today Japan +1 ergo the magic ( Olympic) solution
Stop testing and the numbers stagnate.. bingo … nnnnoooo prroooblems…………yet
 

tgh

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Here..
there..
and (sadly)..
(almost).. everywhere

A tourist hotel on the Canary Island of Tenerife has been placed in quarantine after an Italian doctor staying there tested positive for the Covid-19.

The press office for the town of Adeje confirmed that the restrictions are in place at the H10 Adeje Palace hotel.

Spanish media said some 1,000 tourists staying at the complex are not allowed to leave.

The move comes as China and South Korea have reported more cases of the coronavirus as clusters of the disease grow in Europe and the Middle East amid rising global concern.

It comes as 11 Italian towns in the Northern Province of Lombardy have now gone into lockdown as a seventh person died of coronavirus on Monday, and the number of confirmed cases rose to 229
 

p--and--t

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Among the 29 foreign nationals in China who have been infected by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), it was reported that 18 of them have already recovered and been discharged from hospitals.

10 of those 18 patients were being treated and recovered in Guangdong province.

 

juddles

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As always, there is a section of society that (understandably) lives with the beliefs that the government gives.

This Corona virus is now global. It will be a pandemic. I say that not in alarm but in reality. It should not scare people - it is not as virulent as some other past waves of similar. But it will reach you. History will show that all reporting was a couple of months late - most of the countries that think they are still Corona-free actually have it already. I laugh at the stats. I have a particular interest in South America, where the figures still show little impact. But I am also aware that there is daily human traffic between China and the rural areas of Colombia and Peru and Brazil. The Chinese run much of the mining sector in these places, as they do in many parts of the globe. These are areas with an almost complete inability to detect / define any new disease. By the time it becomes apparent there it will be completely widespread in the communities. And by this time it will also have leapt to the many ex-pats - aussie and others, that also are in these zones.

It is time to realize that Corona Virus will sweep the globe. The chance to isolate it has long been lost.
 

Pushka

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For the life of me... why?
Because containment hasn’t worked. Didn’t from the instant that China kept its secret. We will have to learn to live with it rather than try stop it by border control. As soon as that happens there is no point in testing. People will get tested if they are ill. That is what happened with swine flu.
 

PineappleSkip

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Border control was always reported as a means of slowing its spread, given that something with mild flu-like symptoms would always be difficult to detect. And I can see the potential for other countries doing worse than China.

Is Qom Iran's Wuhan? Interesting NYT article on Iran here:
‘Recipe for a Massive Viral Outbreak’: Iran Emerges as a Worldwide Threat

Adding to the public anxiety [in Iran], the Iranian news media reported that Dr. Mohamad Reza Ghadir, the head of a medical university in Qom and the top official in charge of managing the outbreak there, was among those placed in quarantine.

On Monday, Dr. Ghadir said on Iran’s state television network that the health ministry had ordered city officials “not to publish any statistics” related to the outbreak in Qom. The situation there was “very dire and disease has spread across the city, ” he said.
In Southern Europe, in addition to the confirmed case in Zagreb (who came from Milan) there is a report here that mentions nine Italian workers in a Rijeka Hospital awaiting test results, another of a Lombardian testing positive in Tenerife (with his hotel being locked down), and another here of two in Austria's Tyrol who also came from Lombardy.
 
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serfty

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Because containment hasn’t worked. Didn’t from the instant that China kept its secret. We will have to learn to live with it rather than try stop it by border control. As soon as that happens there is no point in testing. People will get tested if they are ill. That is what happened with swine flu.
Because by delaying spread as much as possible until a vaccination is developed would be one way to reduce infections and fatalities.

A vaccination will happen - the processes for such in relation to Viral infections are well known, it just takes time. (Indeed, there are Swine Flu vaccinations available, Pandemrix and Celvapan for example.)
 

Pushka

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Because by delaying spread as much as possible until a vaccination is developed would be one way to reduce infections and fatalities.

A vaccination will happen - the processes for such in relation to Viral infections are well known, it just takes time. (Indeed, there are Swine Flu vaccinations available, Pandemrix and Celvapan for example.)
Agree in principle. Let’s talk reality. The vaccine is the best answer. But. This thing is unlike the normal flu. It spreads with no symptoms. For a long period before testing positive. A vaccine is a year away. It has to be developed, go through animal testing then a trial of Hunan testing, production and then distribution. We even run out of normal flu vaccine and thats only released to half the worlds geographic regions at a time (winter time).

The reality is that we cannot contain the world for 12 months. It won’t be worth opening it again if we did.

I thought it would be a World War that would be earths nemesis. Maybe this is it.
 

drron

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And there is a lot of work going on to find an effective drug treatment for Covid-19.An upto date (as of yesterday) list of trials etc.

This site also posts breaking news.
 
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Agree in principle. Let’s talk reality. The vaccine is the best answer. But. This thing is unlike the normal flu. It spreads with no symptoms. For a long period before testing positive. A vaccine is a year away. It has to be developed, go through animal testing then a trial of Human testing, production and then distribution. We even run out of normal flu vaccine and thats only released to half the worlds geographic regions at a time (winter time).

The reality is that we cannot contain the world for 12 months. It won’t be worth opening it again if we did.

I thought it would be a World War that would be earths nemesis. Maybe this is it.
You are overstating things. Convid 19 is no Ebola and it will not be the "End of Days". The vast majority of people that catch Convid 19 have no symptoms, or only have minor symptoms. Virtually all recover. Those most at risk, as with the flu, tend to have existing problems that make them more susceptible to it.

Annual Global Road Crash Statistics
Nearly 1.25 million people die in road
crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44.



Containment is merely a practical step and sensible tactic that can currently be deployed as it is early days with Convid 19.
 
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Pushka

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You are overstating things. Convid 19 is no Ebola and it will not be the "End of Days". The vast majority of people that catch Convid 19 have no symptoms, or only have minor symptoms. Virtually all recover. Those most at risk, as with the flu, tend to have existing problems that make them more susceptible to it.

Annual Global Road Crash Statistics
Nearly 1.25 million people die in road
crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44.



Containment is merely a practical step and sensible tactic that can currently be deployed as it is early days with Convid 19.
Yes that makes sense. My concern is the global impact that results from shutting everything down for an unspecified period of time.
 

dajop

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go through animal testing then a trial of Hunan testing, production and then distribution.
Why not Hubei testing? Hunan (capital Changsha) , which is immediately south of Hubei only 1016 cases vs ~ 65,0000 cases in Hubei province. 🤪

(yes, yes, I know what you meant to write, but hey no fun just simply pointing out the error).
 

tgh

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reality ??

AU pop 24 million ( mostly living in clusters )

Hypothetical infection rate over the next 16 > 20 weeks ? .. let us say a very conservative 40% say 10 million….

Consider the current total CFR (based on very recent figures) of 2.3% … these deaths all in the next four or five months !!!!!

More : Patients who present with serious symptoms requiring hospitalisation ( again from recent figures) … 19% say 1.9 million in Au

Now take a deep breath and look up the current number of icu beds in australia AND ESTIMATE THE CURRENT VACANCY RATE

I opine that we are looking into hell……
 

I love to travel

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reality ??

AU pop 24 million ( mostly living in clusters )

Hypothetical infection rate over the next 16 > 20 weeks ? .. let us say a very conservative 40% say 10 million….

Consider the current total CFR (based on very recent figures) of 2.3% … these deaths all in the next four or five months !!!!!

More : Patients who present with serious symptoms requiring hospitalisation ( again from recent figures) … 19% say 1.9 million in Au

Now take a deep breath and look up the current number of icu beds in australia AND ESTIMATE THE CURRENT VACANCY RATE

I opine that we are looking into hell……
When you say it like that yikes.
An unintended consequence may be we have a long overdue conversation about how much we do and how much we spend to try and keep really elderly people alive. There are some sections of the medical fraternity feel we try too hard post 80 years of age. Ethical minefield but we might just be forced to confront it.
 

p--and--t

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I was kinda surprised to read online yesterday from the blog of a Dr in the US (unconfirmed from other sources) that only 3 states in the US have COVID testing facilities.
 

dajop

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I opine that we are looking into hell……
Yet, the provinces in China surrounding Hubei (in close proximity to Wuhan), are Hunan, Henan, Jiangxi, Anhui, and from the latest WHO figures those provinces have a combined population of 275,000,000, with the number of cases reported is 4210 and loss of 30 lives.

Of course these figures could be wild underestimates - but of both the fatality and the case rate.

In context, ... using Australia's (relatively low by world standards) number of "lives lost" due to road accidents (1182 in 2019), over 1000 people would be expected to die as a result of a traffic accidents in the similar period (one month) in a population of 275,000,000.
 
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