The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

Lynda2475

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The COVID Vaccination Allocations Horizons was updated yesterday, you can now see the effect of the vaccine swaps and extra purchases.

 

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lovetravellingoz

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Interesting article on proportion of mrna delivered.


Distribution of mRNA vaccines across Australia​


Jurisdiction

ABS population share (per cent share)

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November/December
New South Wales8,173,000 (31.8%)17,000 (27.4%)172,000 (29.1%)329,000 (28.9%)753,000 (29.5%)1,222,000 (29.3%)2,307,000 (32.8%)3,795,000 (33.5%)6,344,000 (31.5%)10,599,000 (31.7%)17,396,000 (31.8%)
Victoria6,662,000 (25.9%)17,000 (26.6%)145,000 (24.6%)276,000 (24.3%)655,000 (25.6%)1,183,000 (28.4%)1,794,000 (25.5%)2,899,000 (25.6%)5,168,000 (25.7%)8,586,000 (25.7%)14,180,000 (25.9%)
Queensland5,195,000 (20.2%)11,000 (18.2%)117,000 (19.9%)209,000 (18.4%)457,000 (17.9%)728,000 (17.5%)1,280,000 (18.2%)2,059,000 (18.2%)3,989,000 (19.8%)6,665,000 (20.0%)11,058,000 (20.2%)
Western Australia2,670,000 (10.4%)7,000 (10.5%)50,000 (8.5%)113,000 (9.9%)253,000 (9.9%)387,000 (9.3%)658,000 (9.4%)1,030,000 (9.1%)2,015,000 (10.0%)3,376,000 (10.1%)5,682,000 (10.4%)
South Australia1,771,000 (6.9%)6,000 (9.5%)50,000 (8.5%)90,000 (7.9%)214,000 (8.4%)309,000 (7.4%)468,000 (6.7%)758,000 (6.7%)1,342,000 (6.7%)2,210,000 (6.6%)3,768,000 (6.9%)
Tasmania542,000 (2.1%)2,000 (2.9%)20,000 (3.4%)45,000 (4.0%)89,000 (3.5%)130,000 (3.1%)194,000 (2.8%)317,000 (2.8%)526,000 (2.6%)819,000 (2.5%)1,154,000 (2.1%)
Australian Capital Territory431,000 (1.7%)2,000 (2.4%)19,000 (3.2%)39,000 (3.4%)69,000 (2.7%)111,000 (2.7%)174,000 (2.5%)267,000 (2.4%)426,000 (2.1%)657,000 (2.0%)924,000 (1.7%)
Northern Territory247,000 (1.0%)1,000 (2.3%)17,000 (2.8%)36,000 (3.1%)66,000 (2.6%)95,000 (2.3%)148,000 (2.1%)207,000 (1.8%)330,000 (1.6%)472,000 (1.4%)525,000 (1.0%)


I am not sure if you saw the note at the bottom:

NOTES: 1/ 530,000 Pfizer vaccine doses allocated to NSW are not included in the above.
Now 530,000 is a familiar number. Does it relate to the Polish Purchase?

530,010 doses will be prioritised for express delivery to the 12 Greater Sydney Local Government Areas where the COVID-19 outbreak continues to grow, following advice from the Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly.
This will give everyone aged 20 to 39 years in the 12 LGAs the opportunity to be vaccinated.
The remaining 470,340 Pfizer doses will be distributed on a per capita basis to other states and territories, to fast-track the vaccination of 20 to 39 year olds and other high risk groups.


So presumably that means that the other jurisdictions all have included within their figures their allocation from the Polish Purchase:
The per capita allocation to the remaining states and territories is: Victoria 175,500, Queensland 136,890, South Australia 47,970, Western Australia 70,200, Tasmania 17,550, Northern Territory 8,190, and the ACT 14,040.
but not one dose of Polish Pfizer is included within the NSW figures.

So why are the 530,000 excluded, but the other doses added to the other jurisdictions? Even if you wanted to for some reason not include all of them surely you should as a minimum include the number of doses used in NSW on a pro-rata basis to the other jurisdictions.

The Polish Pfizer doses do all seem to be included in the later tables though.

The one million Euro Moderna doses are all also included in the table. ie 11 million in total.




Pfizer in 2021

In the later tables it looks like the number of Pfizer doses for 2021 will be 38 (from June on) million + 2.56 million (used to May inclusive) = 40.56 rather than 46 million.

From the Pfizer manufacturer in 2021 we will get about 34.56 (32 +2.56) million doses rather than 40 million.

46 million is the total orders for 2021 of Pfizer (40+4.5UK+ 0.5 Singapore + 1 Polish). (I assume that Note 1 from the first table dose not apply to the later tables) 40 million agreement ( Caveat some or all the extra doses may arrive by say Dec31, but not yet be delivered to each state based on the supply table). Having said that the note at the bottom which includes Pfizer, Moderna and AZ states: We expect by the end of October to have received sufficient supply to fully vaccinate the population. It does note define if that if 16+ or 12+ population. I assume that is meant to be 16+ population. If it does, then as 12-15 year olds are now being vaccinated at a rapid then that target may move somewhat. PLus as sufficient supply would include AZ and not all are willing to take AZ that will also most likely delay things.

Note that the 10 million for DFAT in the table: . A total of 10 million AstraZeneca doses will be distributed to Australia’s international partners by the end of 2021

The Pfizer Supply from the manufacturer is shown as 32 million for June to December inclusive. With 2.56 million prior to that, that is a total of about 34.6 million. A shortfall of 5.4 million of the 40 million Pfizer agreements.

However we are so far also receiving 1 million extra Moderna. Total mRNA till end of Dec being now 48,999,298. While in total this is enough doses for 25 million Australians which is good, but the supply of mRNA will be slower than we were hoping for last month when we all thought the "international partner" deals would really accelerate vaccinations. They should speed things up, but not as quickly as we were hoping as the 40 million Pfizer Manufacturer doses will not have all been distributed with 2021.


1632540007524.png

PRIME MINISTER: Good afternoon. I’m joined by the Minister for Health, the Chief Medical Officer and the Secretary of the Department of Health. Let me start by saying Australia has now had over one million doses administered here and across the country. I’ll come to the issue of the vaccines and National Cabinet in a moment. But let me also advise, and particularly why I’m joined by the Minister for Health today and Aged Care, the Australian Government has secured overnight an additional 20 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNtech COVID-19 vaccine, in line with the advice of the Scientific Industry Technical Advisory Group on Vaccines, led by Professor Brendan Murphy. Now, through our advanced purchase agreement with Pfizer, these additional 20 million Pfizer doses means that Australia will now receive a total of 40 million Pfizer doses in 2021.

1632540616963.png
 
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drron

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Whether it will work is irrelevant to my point that is was unecessary for a person to have a booster within a month of dose two (3 doses within 17 weeks) . Im all for boosters when there has been a reduction in immunity, but at 4 weeks post dose 2 you should be at maximum protection, not seeking another
But it is relevant to this part of your post I was answering.
"However, nowhere in the world is recommending a 3rd AZ dose 1 months after the 2nd, unless there was a screw up with dosage."

If you had bothered to read the initial post I made about an AZ 3rd dose you would have realised this was not given at 1 month but at least 6 months after the second dose.Here is a press article on that finding without big medical words.
Research by the University of Oxford team that developed the vaccine has shown a booster at least six months after the second jab brings immunity levels back to their peak - and significantly increases antibody and T-cell levels to the virus, including variants.
As you can see though if you read this article there is no need for an AZ booster as it's fade is far less than that with Pfizer.

And Thailand is indeed using AZ as a booster for those that have had 2 doses of Sinovac.
 

mviy

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To have any chance of reaching 80% fully vaccinated before Cup Day, VIC needs to imminently move back to 3 weeks between Pfizer doses in state hubs. However the state government is still saying that they don't have enough supply to do that.
 

Lynda2475

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If you had bothered to read the initial post I made about an AZ 3rd dose you would have realised this was not given at 1 month but at least 6 months after the second dose.Here is a press article on that finding without big medical words.

The one month gap between dose 2 and 3 is what happened, the person i referenced decided to get that 3rd shot without medical advice and i can guarantee you he didnt read that article.

So my post that a 3rd dose of AZ is not recommended at 1 month anywhere is factual, a fact your own post demonstrates you agree with. I did not comment on if or when an AZ booster would be needed. I did comment on mrna boosters at 6-9 months.

That said ,i note that in the last week the UK has approved mrna boosters for all over 50s, irrespective of what vaccine they got their first two, so that will include many who had AZ because it was the most common vaccine given.
 
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OATEK

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I am not sure if you saw the note at the bottom:

NOTES: 1/ 530,000 Pfizer vaccine doses allocated to NSW are not included in the above.
Now 530,000 is a familiar number. Does it relate to the Polish Purchase?

530,010 doses will be prioritised for express delivery to the 12 Greater Sydney Local Government Areas where the COVID-19 outbreak continues to grow, following advice from the Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly.
This will give everyone aged 20 to 39 years in the 12 LGAs the opportunity to be vaccinated.
The remaining 470,340 Pfizer doses will be distributed on a per capita basis to other states and territories, to fast-track the vaccination of 20 to 39 year olds and other high risk groups.


So presumably that means that the other jurisdictions all have included within their figures their allocation from the Polish Purchase:
The per capita allocation to the remaining states and territories is: Victoria 175,500, Queensland 136,890, South Australia 47,970, Western Australia 70,200, Tasmania 17,550, Northern Territory 8,190, and the ACT 14,040.
but not one dose of Polish Pfizer is included within the NSW figures.

So why are the 530,000 excluded, but the other doses added to the other jurisdictions? Even if you wanted to for some reason not include all of them surely you should as a minimum include the number of doses used in NSW on a pro-rata basis to the other jurisdictions.

The Polish Pfizer doses do all seem to be included in the later tables though.

The one million Euro Moderna doses are all also included in the table. ie 11 million in total.




Pfizer in 2021

In the later tables it looks like the number of Pfizer doses for 2021 will be 38 (from June on) million + 2.56 million (used to may inclusive) = 40.56 rather than 46 million.

So 2 million less that 40 million ordered from Pfizer, and 8 million less that the total orders of Pfizer (40=4.5UK+ .5 Singapore + 1 Polish). (I assume that Note 1 from the first table dose not apply to the later tables) 40 million agreement ( Caveat some or all the extra doses may arrive by say Dec31, but not yet be delivered to each state based on the supply table). Having said that the note at the bottom which includes Pfizer, Moderna and AZ states: We expect by the end of October to have received sufficient supply to fully vaccinate the population. It does note define if that if 16+ or 12+ population. I assume that is meant to be 16+ population. If it does, then as 12-15 year olds are now being vaccinated at a rapid then that target may move somewhat. PLus as sufficient supply would include AZ and not all are willing to take AZ that will also most likely delay things.

Note that the 10 million for DFAT in the table: . A total of 10 million AstraZeneca doses will be distributed to Australia’s international partners by the end of 2021

The Pfizer Supply from the manufacturer is shown as 32 million for June to December inclusive. With 2.56 million prior to that, that is a total of about 34.6 million. A shortfall of 5.4 million of the 40 million Pfizer agreements.

However we are so far also receiving 1 million extra Moderna. Total mRNA till end of Dec being now 48,999,298. While in total this is enough doses for 25 million Australians which is good, but the supply of mRNA will be slower than we were hoping for last month when we all thought the "international partner" deals would really accelerate vaccinations. They should speed things up, but not as quickly as we were hoping as the 40 million Pfizer Manufacturer doses will not have all been distributed with 2021.


View attachment 259585

PRIME MINISTER: Good afternoon. I’m joined by the Minister for Health, the Chief Medical Officer and the Secretary of the Department of Health. Let me start by saying Australia has now had over one million doses administered here and across the country. I’ll come to the issue of the vaccines and National Cabinet in a moment. But let me also advise, and particularly why I’m joined by the Minister for Health today and Aged Care, the Australian Government has secured overnight an additional 20 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNtech COVID-19 vaccine, in line with the advice of the Scientific Industry Technical Advisory Group on Vaccines, led by Professor Brendan Murphy. Now, through our advanced purchase agreement with Pfizer, these additional 20 million Pfizer doses means that Australia will now receive a total of 40 million Pfizer doses in 2021.

View attachment 259586
Is there a one paragraph summary of this somewhere?
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Is there a one paragraph summary of this somewhere?

Summarising:

  • From the second table it looks like the number of Pfizer doses for 2021 that will get into arms will be 38 million (from June on) + 2.56 million (used to May inclusive) = 40.56 million rather than 46 million. 46 million is the total orders for 2021 of Pfizer (40+4.5UK+ 0.5 Singapore + 1 Polish). From the Pfizer manufacturer in 2021 we will get about 34.56 (32 +2.56) million doses rather than 40 million. In short the extra Pfizer orders from international partners arriving in the jurisdictions in 2021 will be just in excess of the shortfall from Pfizer. The extra 1 million of Moderna from Europe tops up 2021 total mRNAso that up so total mRNA is about 1.5million extra, rather than 7 million extra.
  • In the first % table 530,000 doses in NSW (Presumably the Polish acquired Pfizer) are excluded from the calculations (see footnote of table). Whereas the 470,000 Polish acquired Pfizer used in all the other jurisdictions is not excluded (ie will have been included).
 
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mviy

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It was a disappointing day for vaccinations in VIC yesterday due to the public holiday. They should have moved the public holiday to November to say the first Monday after hitting 80% double vaxxed.

Even so some milestones were reached yesterday.

75.41% of 16+ population has had their first dose.

25.63% of 12-15 year-olds (over 1 in 4) have had their first dose, 37.71% in NSW and 30.44% in VIC.

60.5% of 25-29 year-olds have had their first dose. Every age group 25-29 and up is past 60% for first dose.

NSW has 85.18% first dose for 16+.

NSW has 59.25% fully vaccinated for 16+ and should go past 60% when today's numbers are released tomorrow.

NT has 50.66% fully vaccinated for 16+.

VIC has 70.19% fully vaccinated for 50+

NSW has 79.79% fully vaccinated for 70+ and should go past 80% when today's numbers are released tomorrow.
 

lovetravellingoz

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It was a disappointing day for vaccinations in VIC yesterday due to the public holiday.

Well hopefully that is what it was, but even prior to yesterday the Commonwealth Channels in Victoria were still dawdling along. The dropoff principally was in the Commonwealth's two channels.

The Commonwealth Channel in the original plan was meant to be delivering 75% of the vaccinations, but has always dawdled along with this Channel in Victoria. It did not help that in August that the Commonwealth chose to delay the GP's that were meant to opening in order to prioritise NSW despite NSW already have multiples more GPs opened than in Victoria. The Pharmacist rollout has also dawdled along despite that the big chains operate across multiple states. Evidently by mid Oct !!! the Commonwealth hope to have an adequate number of GP's and Pharmacists open in Victoria.

Due the current lack of Commonwealth Channel capacity in Victoria in the required LGA's (ones with higher case numbers) 32,000 initial doses of the Moderna mRNA vaccine will now be administered through pop-ups sites run by Monash Health (They unlike the other state channels are already approved to administer Moderna along with AZ and Pfizer). The Pfizer that would have been used there will instead be used in the northern hotspots at state run pop-ups.


In the Vic Commonwealth Aged Care and Residential Channel, the Commonwealth is seemingly not any any hurry.

961,392 total does delivered nationally of which in each jurisdiction there have been:
1632557393561.png
.
 
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jakeseven7

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QLD seemed to be only AZ hesitant and that report is before the age limits were scrapped on 18 Sept. The Super Pfizer weekends and walk ins at hubs are very popular.

You can’t blame us, we had our QLD CHO screeching at young people they would die if they got AZ… Unfortunately some listened and more got scared 😟
 

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