The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

lovetravellingoz

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covidlive is now estimating that VIC is just a week away from 80% first dose, a day after the VIC premier estimates it will be reached. If vaccination rates pick up a bit this week the Premier's estimate could prove correct.


Hopefully with the Moderna the Feds will be disprortianatly directed it to the Vic Hotspot LGAs as requested. Ditto with Pfizer to the GPs. Recently the Commonwealth Channel was still mainly vaccinating in non-hotspot LGA's.

While the Vic State Average is 72.8% first dose and 43.9% second dose, it is higher in the country regions and lower in Metro Melbourne, and significantly lower in the suburbs with the highest daily case numbers.

So while 80% statewide is not far off, getting the suburbs with the highest cases is going to take longer and in terms of controlling the case rate and hospitalisation rate this is most important. :(


Cases still dominate in 4 LGA's and mainly in the City of Hume. (See below) In these LGA's and also in the other LGA's with significant case numbers the vaccination rate tends to be much lower than the state average.

City of Hume with the largest number of daily cases has a first dose rate of only 55%. This went up 6.8% last week, but this is still way to low for such an epicentre of cases. So it is vital that City of Hume in particular gets that 6.8% weekly increase rate increased.

The State Hubs and State pop-ups (some are located at schools, others places of worship) are more focussed now on residents of the LGA's with higher case rates including City of Casey in the SE.

But the Commonwealth run GP's and Pharmacists are disprortianatly not in the hotspot suburbs. More are meant to opening this week, and over the next four. So hopefully doses will be going where they are needed most can rapidly change. But it will probably be October before a decent number of GP's and Pharmacists are actually operating in Vic.



Breakdown of Victoria's 567 new cases and vaccination rates

COVID commander Jeroen Weimar says the age profile of the cases are largely younger people, which is a familiar pattern.
"[Of the new cases] 82 per cent are aged under 50.
"87 per cent of all cases are in the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne. In the north, 357 cases — including Craigieburn, Roxburgh Park and Broadmeadows — and a quarter of the cases are in the western suburbs.
"There are also 13 cases in regional Victoria and two further cases following up and we will can firm those this afternoon.
"Over half of our cases today are in households where they have been previous cases."

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Lynda2475

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Given the US seem to have given up on boosting they should have millions of doses lying around…

The FDA have recommended boosters for all over 65s and under 65s in certain occupations (Health, Emergency Services, Border workers) or who have certain health conditions.
 

mviy

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Hopefully those in the VIC hotspots are able to get their second doses at the lower end of the recommended window. They need to boost both first and second dose numbers quickly there.
 

lovetravellingoz

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In the Vic Presser today Foley the Vic Health Minister stated that all First Ministers (ie all jurisdictions) have now been advised that the Oct Pfizer deliveries into Australia (ie the ones direct from Pfizer and not those through any side deals) are likely to be less than had been planned/announced. Exact details are yet to be confirmed.

UPDATE:

Greg Hunt today stated that they had worked over the weekend to adjust what doses came in when so that the October doses for mRNA will now still be more than September.

He did not really answer the question on whether the total of previously directly ordered Moderna and Pfizer, plus the doses from the side deals from the UK, Singapore (Pfizer) and Eur0pe (Moderna) purchases would still be achieved in September and October though.
 

OATEK

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UPDATE:

Greg Hunt today stated that they had worked over the weekend to adjust what doses came in when so that the October doses for mRNA will now still be more than September.

He did not really answer the question on whether the total of previously directly ordered Moderna and Pfizer, plus the UK and Singapore purchases would still be achieved.
Wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't know.
 

mviy

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There's still hope they could yet do another deal with a foreign country to get more supply.
 

jakeseven7

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There's still hope they could yet do another deal with a foreign country to get more supply.

There’s now rumours swirling that they knew of this supply issue hence the flurry of sloppy seconds deals from Poland et all….

hmmmm
 

OATEK

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There’s now rumours swirling that they knew of this supply issue hence the flurry of sloppy seconds deals from Poland et all….

hmmmm
Sound quite possible - I am sure they are watching closely, and getting regular briefings from the suppliers. Not convinced that we are facing a shortage, just a bumpy supply line. Wouldn't be the first time as anyone with a FMCG background would know.
 

jase05

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There's still hope they could yet do another deal with a foreign country to get more supply.
My understanding is that we will still see all of our promised doses for the month of October but there might be one batch that is a week late. So it could be something as simple as no Pfizer one week and double the next and indeed the rumour is that some second doses that are held in reserve could be brought forward to the week we don’t see any
 

mviy

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14.42% (over 1 in 7) of 12-15 year olds have had their first dose. 21.15% (over 1 in 5) in NSW and 16.92% (over 1 in 6) for the same age group.

80% of 55-59 year-olds have had their first dose. Every age group 50-54 and up has reached 80% first dose.

35-39 at 66.6% is just under 2/3 first dose. Just over 1/3 (33.6%) of this age group are fully vaccinated.

QLD (60.32%) and WA (60.05%) are the last states to go past 60% first dose for 16+.

QLD has reached 80.19% first dose for 50+.

QLD should reach 90% first dose for 70+ this week and SA should do so this week or next week.
 

mviy

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"Pfizer says its COVID-19 vaccine works for children ages 5 to 11 and that it will seek US approval for this age group soon – a key step toward beginning vaccinations for youngsters...He said the companies aim to apply to the Food and Drug Administration by the end of the month for emergency use in this age group, followed shortly afterward with applications to European and British regulators."

I guess vaccination for kids under 12 could yet start here before the end of the year.
 

mviy

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Tomorrow's Front Pages:

Hobart Mercury - "GP Shuts as Staff Shun Jab" - "Surgery forced to close leaving 1000 people without a doctors as some employees won't vaccinate"

Newcastle Herald - 'We're not ready yet' - 'Hunter vaccination rates way behind as reopening date looms' - 'Hunter public health controller Dr David Durrheim says it is too early to start "living with COVID-19" as the region's vaccination rates lag up to 19 percentage points behind the state average.'

The Canberra Times - 'Vaccine hubs to miss out on supply boost' - 'Chief Minister Andrew Barr has accused the federal government of giving preferential vaccine treatment to NSW and Victoria, after finding out there would be a 30,000 Pfizer-dose gap in Canberra...'
 
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jase05

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I guess vaccination for kids under 12 could yet start here before the end of the year.
From a friend this evening

A/Prof Margie Danchin (ATAGI and MCRI) said tonight in a webinar that vaccination for those <12 probably unlikely to be approved in Australia until early 2022.
 

drron

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Pfizer has only announced it's study of vaccinating under 12s at a press conference and it is still not even out as a pre print article in journals.More importantly the evidence hasn't been presented to the FDA.Note that the FDA spokesman said hopefully a decision would be made in several weeks once the application is made.So unlikely to be a decision before December.That means unlikely to be approved in Australia until 2022.
Also note that the Pfizer study is with children 5 - 11 whereas Moderna is studying vaccinating those from 6 months and over.
Another report of the Pfizer press conference.

I have a sneaking impression that the FDA does not like Pfizer's use of press releases.They have just voted on the use of boosters by Pfizer.The vote was 16 -2 against general use of a booster dose at 6 months.
The US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee voted against giving a third dose, or a booster dose, of Pfizer’s coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2) in individuals aged 16 years and older.

Of the 18 members of the voting committee, 16 voted against booster vaccines at this time, based on the current available data, for individuals aged 16 years and older.

That means the Pfizer booster has not been authorised for the majority of those over 16.
 

Princess Fiona

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Pfizer has only announced it's study of vaccinating under 12s at a press conference and it is still not even out as a pre print article in journals.More importantly the evidence hasn't been presented to the FDA.Note that the FDA spokesman said hopefully a decision would be made in several weeks once the application is made.So unlikely to be a decision before December.That means unlikely to be approved in Australia until 2022.
Also note that the Pfizer study is with children 5 - 11 whereas Moderna is studying vaccinating those from 6 months and over.
Another report of the Pfizer press conference.

I have a sneaking impression that the FDA does not like Pfizer's use of press releases.They have just voted on the use of boosters by Pfizer.The vote was 16 -2 against general use of a booster dose at 6 months.


That means the Pfizer booster has not been authorised for the majority of those over 16.
The Pfizer study also includes children from 6 months and up same as Moderna.
They will be reporting the results in the 6months to 2 years and 2-5yr olds in the 4th quarter.
 
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Pushka

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The Pfizer study also includes children from 6 months and up same as Moderna.
They will be reporting the results in the 6months to 2 years and 2-5yr olds in the 4th quarter.
I know that UK born DIL who has a two year old is desperate to see her family in UK, all being immunised. I thought she would jump at going once we hit that 80% and would be happy to home quarantine on return. The other week she was saying that now she is more worried for her two year old and travelling to UK than her need to see her parents. If safe to do so then he would be having the vaccination. Currently living in country SA she's in one of the safest places in the world I guess (currently) with much freedom so her UK parents would prefer she not come.
 

mviy

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Cases still dominate in 4 LGA's and mainly in the City of Hume. (See below) In these LGA's and also in the other LGA's with significant case numbers the vaccination rate tends to be much lower than the state average.

City of Hume with the largest number of daily cases has a first dose rate of only 55%. This went up 6.8% last week, but this is still way to low for such an epicentre of cases. So it is vital that City of Hume in particular gets that 6.8% weekly increase rate increased.
Some fresh weekly LGA numbers were released yesterday(?)

Hume first doses up 9.5% to 64.5%. Moreland up 5.5% to 65.9% and Whittlesea up 7.3% to 63.5% and Wyndham up 8.3% to 75%. Second doses went up by much less (e.g. Hume up 2.8% to 31.6%), but hopefully second dose rates will start going up dramatically sometime in the next few weeks or so as well.

My LGA is doing a lot better for vaccinations. When next week's numbers are released my LGA will probably be above 80% first dose (it's already well past 50% fully vaccinated).
 

Lynda2475

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hat means the Pfizer booster has not been authorised for the majority of those over 16.

Yet booster were unanimously approved for all over 65s, all medical workers (as previously reported hospitals already giving boosters to staff in some states for 3 weeks), all emergency services workers and for those with conditions which put them "among individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19". So in fact many under 65s are and will get boosters.
 

jakeseven7

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Pfizer has only announced it's study of vaccinating under 12s at a press conference and it is still not even out as a pre print article in journals.More importantly the evidence hasn't been presented to the FDA.Note that the FDA spokesman said hopefully a decision would be made in several weeks once the application is made.So unlikely to be a decision before December.That means unlikely to be approved in Australia until 2022.
Also note that the Pfizer study is with children 5 - 11 whereas Moderna is studying vaccinating those from 6 months and over.
Another report of the Pfizer press conference.

I have a sneaking impression that the FDA does not like Pfizer's use of press releases.They have just voted on the use of boosters by Pfizer.The vote was 16 -2 against general use of a booster dose at 6 months.


That means the Pfizer booster has not been authorised for the majority of those over 16.

Yes it’s puzzling why the US has decided not to boost a vast majority of their population. I mean it can’t be all about the fade and breakthroughs? Is it because herd is so high through actual infection?

Some fresh weekly LGA numbers were released yesterday(?)

Hume first doses up 9.5% to 64.5%. Moreland up 5.5% to 65.9% and Whittlesea up 7.3% to 63.5% and Wyndham up 8.3% to 75%. Second doses went up by much less (e.g. Hume up 2.8% to 31.6%), but hopefully second dose rates will start going up dramatically sometime in the next few weeks or so as well.

My LGA is doing a lot better for vaccinations. When next week's numbers are released my LGA will probably be above 80% first dose (it's already well past 50% fully vaccinated).

Do you have a source for these numbers? (Interested)
 
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