The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

jakeseven7

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Sydney opens its first drive-through vaccination clinic at Belmore Sports Ground.

Yes great news, they have been a raging success in VIC (personally I don't get why but who cares!) so good to see NSW copying.

I think they would do really well in QLD but we don't really care about vaccines up here sadly.

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Sydney's first drive-through vaccination centre opens in the city's south west​



Prominent local doctor Jamal Rifi is opening a drive-through vaccination clinic at Belmore Sports Ground, in one of the 12 LGAs of concern.

Local MP Sophie Cotsis says it's a proud achievement for the area, with a partnership including the NRL Bulldogs and health authorities, led by Dr Rifi.

Meanwhile, Deputy Premier John Barilaro is meeting with regional mayors this morning.

President of Local Government NSW Linda Scott says there are many concerns, with a patchwork of lockdowns.

 

lovetravellingoz

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Updated predictions by CovidbaseAU on how many days to reach the 70/80/90 % vaccination target for both first and second doses by jurisdiction are shown bellow.

(Note this uses a more complex method than just using 7 day averages for second dose, or the the method of adding 6 weeks to first dose rates that you can see in other predictions.)

Estimated date to reach the 80% fully vaccinated target at current rates:

Nationally 49 days - Nov 5

ACT: 34 - Oct 21
NSW: 34 - Oct 21
VIC: 48 - Nov 4
TAS: 53 - Nov 9
WA: 75 - Dec 1
SA: 65 - Nov 21
NT: 65 - Nov 21
QLD: 74 - Nov 30





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I still expect the above will swing around somewhat.

ie Given the increased supply mRNA daily vaccination should be averaging soon in Vic (I have not looked at each jurisdiction) Say almost 90K per day as an average, but presently it is still averaging significantly under that rate. Plus there will be some AZ occurring as well. In short the 7 day average first dose rate in Vic should increase, and especially next week when Moderna starts to get deployed.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Jeroen Weimar just confirmed that in Vic that the emphasis would remain at present in the State Hubs on maximising the first dose rate. In practical terms what this means is that the second dose rate for Pfizer will remain at 6 weeks for the time being.

The priority is to get as many people as possible to have had at least one dose, rather than to get as many people as possible to get their second dose more quickly. This is considered to deliver the better overall health outcome.

Note that AZ remains at 6 weeks. However with AZ the supply is there to give second doses without slowing down the first dose AZ rate (Unlike with Pfizer).
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Jeroen Weimar just confirmed that in Vic that the emphasis would remain at present in the State Hubs on maximising the first dose rate. In practical terms what this means is that the second dose rate for Pfizer will remain at 6 weeks for the time being.

The priority is to get as many people as possible to have had at least one dose, rather than to get as many people as possible to get their second dose more quickly. This is considered to deliver the better overall health outcome.

Note that AZ remains at 6 weeks. However with AZ the supply is there to give second doses without slowing down the first dose AZ rate (Unlike with Pfizer).
But the GPs are still free to do 2nd dose Pfizer at 3 weeks???
 

mviy

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Jeroen Weimar just confirmed that in Vic that the emphasis would remain at present in the State Hubs on maximising the first dose rate. In practical terms what this means is that the second dose rate for Pfizer will remain at 6 weeks for the time being.

The priority is to get as many people as possible to have had at least one dose, rather than to get as many people as possible to get their second dose more quickly. This is considered to deliver the better overall health outcome.

Note that AZ remains at 6 weeks. However with AZ the supply is there to give second doses without slowing down the first dose AZ rate (Unlike with Pfizer).
That makes sense. There's still limited supply of Pfizer. Getting to 80% first dose is a leading indicator of getting to 80% fully vaccinated and the first dose provides some protection. By the time VIC reaches 80% or perhaps gets a bit further than that I expect they may be able to reconsider, or perhaps move to let anyone yet to have their first dose have Pfizer and then move to bring the second dose gap back down.
 

burmans

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Updated predictions by CovidbaseAU on how many days to reach the 70/80/90 % vaccination target for both first and second doses by jurisdiction are shown bellow.

(Note this uses a more complex method than just using 7 day averages for second dose, or the the method of adding 6 weeks to first dose rates that you can see in other predictions.)

Estimated date to reach the 80% fully vaccinated target at current rates:

Nationally 49 days - Nov 5

ACT: 34 - Oct 21
NSW: 34 - Oct 21
VIC: 48 - Nov 4
TAS: 53 - Nov 9
WA: 75 - Dec 1
SA: 65 - Nov 21
NT: 65 - Nov 21
QLD: 74 - Nov 30





View attachment 258653



I still expect the above will swing around somewhat.

ie Given the increased supply mRNA daily vaccination should be averaging soon in Vic (I have not looked at each jurisdiction) Say almost 90K per day as an average, but presently it is still averaging significantly under that rate. Plus there will be some AZ occurring as well. In short the 7 day average first dose rate in Vic should increase, and especially next week when Moderna starts to get deployed.
It's a bit hard to make a comment on the accuracy of a prediction without understanding the factors and methodology. I'm sceptical of the view that increased supply will be our saviour, we've had increasing supply the last few weeks + but if anything vaccinations seem to have dropped off a bit, I think other factors are now in play.
 

mviy

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Once it becomes a demand problem not supply and there's no further age groups to open up to solve the demand problem then it becomes time for both carrot and stick. We need to see what the states and/or Feds decide to do. The detail of the VIC roadmap to be announced on Sunday will be important to see.

I'm booked in for my second AZ after 12 weeks. My dose hasn't been brought forward (I've had no contact from my local GP asking for that so I plan to wait out the remaining less than 1.5 weeks) though I am in a relatively highly vaccinated LGA with low cases in metropolitan Melbourne.
 

lovetravellingoz

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It's a bit hard to make a comment on the accuracy of a prediction without understanding the factors and methodology.

You can read more at
I'm sceptical of the view that increased supply will be our saviour,

Savior is an overly strong term. However when demand exceeds supply, supply determines the delivery rate. And at least in Vic the overall vaccination rate is still well below whatever the level is when people overall just stop getting vaccinated. The data would suggest that will be over 80% though.

However what the average daily rate for Pfizer/Moderna should become is the monthly supply rate divided by the number of days. At least in Vic this is not yet happening. It will, but exactly when who knows? Hopefully from next week with Moderna rolling it is will start to approach it.


we've had increasing supply the last few weeks + but if anything vaccinations seem to have dropped off a bit, I think other factors are now in play.

I won't estimate for other jurisdictions as I don't follow them closely, but while supply has been increasing if you look at mRNA dose numbers for September in Victoria (and the Oct and November) the doses actually delivered and available to go into arms is lower than what is being injected.

With AZ in Vic it surged when opened up to 18+ , but that momentum has largely been lost due ongoing announcements of more Pfizer becoming available. So people are back to waiting for Pfizer/Moderna again. With some jurisdictions now allowing the 60+ to get Pfizer, along with 12-15s now able to get Pfizer/Moderna that will probably further undermine people now presenting for AZ for first doses..
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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ABC reporting:

Tasmania will open up Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to over 60s from today​

Premier Peter Gutwein has set targets of an 80 per cent vaccination rate by November 2, and 90 per cent by December 1.

He says this will allow Tasmania to reopen with confidence, as the country reaches the 80 per cent target, which is expected in late November.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I'm booked in for my second AZ after 12 weeks. My dose hasn't been brought forward (I've had no contact from my local GP asking for that so I plan to wait out the remaining less than 1.5 weeks) though I am in a relatively highly vaccinated LGA with low cases in metropolitan Melbourne.

My daughter has opted for just over 6 weeks for her second dose of AZ mainly to get access to the likely increasing range of benefits for the double dosed in Vic, the first of which commence tomorrow. She had originally booked in at 12 weeks, but cancelled that after securing an earlier slot elsewhere when the rules changed).

Like for you risk is low due to where we live. But who can accurately predict the future?
 

mviy

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I work weekdays and this weekend is meant to not have great weather. The following weekend Sunday may be O.K. but that forecast could change and the top is only in the teens so not great for meeting others outside.

If the benefits were interstate or international travel I may think differently, but I can't see either of those opening up in the next few weeks or even the next month or even longer. I'm very keen to travel interstate and overseas.

I would be surprised if the roadmap on Sunday has any further benefits for the vaccinated that kick in immediately.

Someone who is way off the 12 weeks probably should bring their second dose forward, but I figure having got so close I may as well wait this little bit longer.
 

mviy

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ABC reporting:

Tasmania will open up Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to over 60s from today​

Premier Peter Gutwein has set targets of an 80 per cent vaccination rate by November 2, and 90 per cent by December 1.

He says this will allow Tasmania to reopen with confidence, as the country reaches the 80 per cent target, which is expected in late November.
The danger with setting such a high target is that if people see it as unachievable it may be counterproductive. 90 per cent is nice as an aspirational goal, but it shouldn't be a target tied to reopening.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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The danger with setting such a high target is that if people see it as unachievable it may be counterproductive. 90 per cent is nice as an aspirational goal, but it shouldn't be a target tied to reopening.
I haven’t watched the press conference.

It’s also an open inference that 90% is not tied to re-opening. The Tas Premier is reported to have said Tas opening as nation reaches 80%, which is expected in late November.

Edit: also Tas in not in lockdown so re-opening is mainly relevant to State and international borders
 

mviy

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Nationally we have 70.47% first dose and 45.36% fully vaccinated for 16+

We have reached 85.36% first dose for 50+.

VIC also went past 70% (70.25%) first dose for 16+ and TAS is so close at 69.97%.

NSW reached 50.58% fully vaccinated for 16+.

The ACT has reached 80.06% fully vaccinated for 50+ (the first to go past 80%).

QLD (40.54%) and WA (40.50%) are the last states to go past 40% fully vaccinated for 16+.



Every age group 70-74 and up has gone past 70% fully vaccinated.

50-54 has reached 60.7% fully vaccinated. Every age group 50-54 and up except 60-64 (56.6%) has gone past 60% fully vaccinated.

50-54 (79.5%) and 55-59 (79.1%) are getting close to 80% first dose and should reach that over the weekend. They will be the last 50+ age groups to reach 80% first dose.

20-24 may go past 50% first dose when today's numbers are released tomorrow. At that point every age group 20-24 and up would be past 50% first dose.

12-15 is at 9.4% first dose and should go past 10% tomorrow. A long way behind the older age groups but they only became eligible very recently. Even though not counting towards the 80% for 16+ target a decent number of the 12-15 age group should have had at least one dose by the time the 80% fully vaccinated target is reached for 16+.

In NSW 14.44% (over 1 in 7) of 12-15 year-olds have had their first dose and 10.45% (over 1 in 10) in VIC. Or to put that another way in a randomly selected class of 20 students aged 12-15 one would expect about 3 to have had their first dose in NSW and about 2 in VIC.
 
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Seat0B

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The danger with setting such a high target is that if people see it as unachievable it may be counterproductive. 90 per cent is nice as an aspirational goal, but it shouldn't be a target tied to reopening.
wish Andrew Barr agreed with you.
 
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