Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[CaptJCool]

ScoMo's presser at the moment...

"Whilst it's not certain, he's hopeful that domestic (interstate) tourism might be possible by the June/July school holidays"

I agree for some States & NT

YESTERDAY in SA was a dozen 000000000000 in a row - worse than Glenn McGraths batting.... but better

 

[CaptJCool]

....and the timelines to AU<>NZ not expected to be much different.

Obviously there is some humour in the meetings. He did highlight jockeying/joking in the meeting (given current restrictions) about PER-AKL possibly open before say PER-BNE

I note 10-14% of Kiwis live in Australia

So Welcome to WA (West Auckland) adjacent Rottnest Island....haha

Flights to East Auckland will only resume later once the..... Gold Coast.....border crossing re-opens

 

[OZDUCK]

W.A. has now ticked up 5 days in a row of zero new cases. Just 14 Cases remain active. Another hopeful sign is that it has been some 19 days since any new case occurred that could not be definitely traced to a known case - so very little sign of community transmission. The intra-state 'borders' are being re-considered but no intention yet to review the interstate border restrictions. NZ here we come!


Edit oops 6th day without any ne infections not 5

 

[CityRail]

Trans-Tasman travel to resume "as soon as it is safe to do so"

The Prime Ministers of Australia and New Zealand work to establish a ‘safe travel zone’ between the two countries.

www.executivetraveller.com

Executive Traveller has hinted, and I have previously flagged, resumption of travel from around where Term 2 holidays ends.

 

[oh_lol]

I'm secretly hoping this thing suddenly sorts itself out and my trip to the US in autumn is still on. But I realistically know it's not going to happen.
Might have to look to NZ!

 

[drron]

Tassies Premier is also talking about direct flights to NZ.

 

[jase05]

Tassies Premier is also talking about direct flights to NZ.

Geez at this rate there will be more Aussies than Kiwis in NZ soon

 

[Berlin]

Tassies Premier is also talking about direct flights to NZ.

Tasmania? Might as well stay here in NZ but each to their own.

I’m much more interested in Queensland to get some warmth during the Winter over here

 

[p--and--t]

I'm secretly hoping this thing suddenly sorts itself out and my trip to the US in autumn is still on. But I realistically know it's not going to happen.
Might have to look to NZ!

The US treasury secretary said on TV overnight it was way to soon the say whether the US will lift bans on non-citizens before 2021. The priority is on domestic economy (& travel)

Argentina has banned all international flights until September 2020

Spain is hinting no non-citizens before October 2020 and their own citizens cannot travel without a "sanitary certificate".

 

[Berlin]

The US treasury secretary said on TV overnight it was way to soon the say whether the US will lift bans on non-citizens before 2021. The priority is on domestic economy (& travel)

Argentina has banned all international flights until September 2020

Spain is hinting no non-citizens before October 2020 and their own citizens cannot travel without a "sanitary certificate".

Geee- Queensland sounds more and more like paradise to me! 🏖

 

[Gremlin]

Heard an interview last night which suggested any NZ arrangement might be a double-edged sword. In that the deal would allow the restart of travel across the ditch, with no quarantine period at either end, but would rely on each party continuing to adhere to very high entry standards otherwise.

It was suggested that in practice, this means that bilaterally both countries (or NZ and specific Aust states, if ongoing community transmission means that this can't be extended nationally in Australia) would have to maintain the same admission standards for those outside the "bubble". The suggestion was that this would make it HARDER, not easier, to loosen restrictions to other nations. Eg, both Aust and NZ would have to simultaneously agree to ease restrictions on arrivals from South Korea, say, otherwise it would mean that the Aust-NZ arrangement would lapse.

 

[Berlin]

Eg, both Aust and NZ would have to simultaneously agree to ease restrictions on arrivals from South Korea, say, otherwise it would mean that the Aust-NZ arrangement would lapse.

Of course, otherwise you just get an entry-way for the Virus again- that's the whole idea about creating a 'bubble' or 'safe zone'. But I don't see how you couldn't let citizens of other countries join, once they can proof to adhere to similar standards.

 

[Gremlin]

Of course, otherwise you just get an entry-way for the Virus again- that's the whole idea about creating a 'bubble' or 'safe zone'. But I don't see how you couldn't let citizens of other countries join, once they can proof to adhere to similar standards.

I agree. The point being made in the interview was that it then relies on the foreign country meeting the strictest requirement rather than your local requirement. For example, Australia might independently decide that Singapore has the virus sufficiently under control that they would want to open bilateral movement again. NZ might decide that Singapore still has work to do to get there. NZ might effectively have a veto over Australia reopening movement to/from Singapore. And vice versa.

 

[CityRail]

It was suggested that in practice, this means that bilaterally both countries (or NZ and specific Aust states, if ongoing community transmission means that this can't be extended nationally in Australia) would have to maintain the same admission standards for those outside the "bubble". The suggestion was that this would make it HARDER, not easier, to loosen restrictions to other nations. Eg, both Aust and NZ would have to simultaneously agree to ease restrictions on arrivals from South Korea, say, otherwise it would mean that the Aust-NZ arrangement would lapse.

I would agree with that, otherwise the Trans-Tasman bubble will actually not work.
Yet I think if the Trans-Tasman bubble is successful, I think both countries should look into which countries they can ease restrictions with, for example, I can see South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are very good candidates.

 

[Berlin]

I would agree with that, otherwise the Trans-Tasman bubble will actually not work.
Yet I think if the Trans-Tasman bubble is successful, I think both countries should look into which countries they can ease restrictions with, for example, I can see South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are very good candidates.

Likewise Singapore once they've gotten their immigrant worker problem under control again and some of the Pacific Islands. The latter probably suffer the most from the lack of tourism. I for one would be more than up to spare some of my money in New Caledonia or Fiji.

 

[willclan]

International travel will be one of the last things to occur, as until there is a vaccine available, there will be too great a risk of importing the virus back into Australia. I believe travel overseas will be banned until at least mid 2021, and also I don't think any cruise ships will be allowed into Australia for the next summer. Too many issues with foreign crews.

 

[RAM]

Two sides to the dates. Supply vs Demand.

Much of the discussion to date quite reasonably has focused on when restrictions will be lifted. There is another side to the question in that what demand there will be. Around 8+ million people have seen their incomes slashed, some to zero (do not meet the criteria for any Govt payments), others to $550/wk ($28,600/yr), and the rest to $750/wk ($39,000/yr.

The mythical Average Australian worker was earning $1,658/wk ($86,216/yr) in the December quarter. With the abysmally low savings rate in Australia matched by the worryingly high personal/mortgage debt per capita suggests that savings have been drawn down, redraws on mortgages accessed, other spending curtailed by a significant degree. Positively to date, credit card debt has plateaued not increased.

Meanwhile retirees have been assailed on all sides. The RBA's cash rate is now 0.25%, term deposit rates are below the inflation rate (even before paying any tax due), the companies responsible for around 40% of Australian franked dividends have (or are about to) announced that they're cutting or even postponing indefinitely their next dividends. At the same time, despite the 'dead cat bounce(?)' they're facing the value of their shares having fallen over 15% since Dec 31, 2019. And the Fed Govt has the deeming rate at 1% for retirees with assets below $50,000 and at 3% for over $50,000.

To say their spending power has been crunched is an understatement.

The domestic Australian economy is in a bad way. This too will influence when the Govt decides to allow some sort of international travel to restart. After all, a safe $100 spent on domestic travel is worth much more than $500 from an international tourist that brings with it CV fears.

International borders opened (ex-NZ) in a step-wise fashion from 31 March 2021.

As has been mentioned previously (many days back in the thread) there has NEVER been a successful Corona virus developed. Not ever. Now this time may be different, but then again, I've seen many companies go out of business saying that.

The common cold (aka rhinovirus) is a corona virus. Immunity only lasts between 4 weeks to 17 weeks from what I've seen = NO HERD immunity.

There are a couple of other common viruses around that are also corona viruses.

No vaccine has ever been developed.

Now, being a cycnic (aka Realist) there is MUCH more money to be made by big pharma from selling cough/cold/flu tablets as well as various things like Vitamin C - year-in-year-out than by selling a one-time only vaccine. Especially when complications see the REAL MONEY made from treating secondary infections. It also keeps medical centres revenue rolling in.

In-depth work I did in the mid 2000s showed just how much the revenue is considered by big pharma, medical centre businesses AND dismally Governments. Did I mention that big pharma are MAJOR political donors around the world? 2nd biggest contributor to Obama btw.

3rd piece of legislation pushed (rushed) through & sponsored by Obama made it a CRIMINAL offence for any one to reveal even the cost of a box of tissues purchased by an extensive range of 'medical' operations from a dental nurse through to a janitor at a hospital.

So, my guess timings of travel dates is based on "This time will not be different" unfortunately. I would like to be wrong. If I am then it is estimate dit would take 4-7 years to innoculate a large enough proportion of the world. Did you know that CSL uses 1/3rd of all eggs produced in Australia to produce the flu vaccine? There are not enough eggs produced in the world to create the flu vaccine for 40% of the world's population.


(Not NZ) International Travel

Most of you probably know that it took nearly 40 years for the smallpox vaccine to finally eradicate smallpox. This was a global campaign supported by all the usual countries, UN & WHO. Countries like Pakistan, for example, were the last to have it eradicated. The 'fake' doctor pretending to be doing innoculations but really trying to get a DNA sample for the CIA to ID Osama Bin Laden - have not helped any future innoculation drives in Pakistan btw.

The very lowly paid workers from the last six countries to eradicate smallpox provide unskilled labour in around 38 countries ranging across the Middle East, Africa, South America, & parts of Europe.

I think it will be a long time before 'safe' international travel that may not see you end up with a crippling hospital debt - happens.

Many countries dependent on tourism are desperate to re-open which is likely to lead to them re-opening before CV is well-controlled. For example, Bali is near destitute after just 9 weeks. Imagine what it will be like in another 2 months. Or Egypt, the Pacific Islands, the Maldives, Greece etc. Other countries claims are just unbelievable, and if photos on social media of new graves are 1/2 true then there are many tourist dependent countries that are going to be off-limits for an extended period.

No matter how restrictive the Govt's opening of international travel is, if the journey requires travel through any of the traditional hubs (Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Bangkok etc) then the risk remains of picking up CV either coming or going.

JB747's 'there won't be any airlines left' may be an extreme statement BUT it is closer to the mark than any Govts would have you believe. Qantas will not survive a March 31 international travel re-opening EVEN if there was massive demand. Q's cash burn rate is massive, and in normal times international revenue is 52 to 53% of total revenue, their international fleet is old vs the competition, and their A380s are the least economic of any plane to operate. Their biggest money spinner (by return on capital) is the QFF scheme but that incentive requires flights to redeem them on, Q had a run on the QFF scheme BEFORE the VA run began BTW.

Domestic Travel

Q wants it to start yesterday, as does the VA administrator while the State & Fed Govts also want it to re-open but not at the expense of bringing in new CV cases to the regions or even State capitals. The Victorian abbatoir demonstrates just how easily one person who is asymtomatic can infect dozens before detected. School closures are ending which in itself may lead to some resurgence (or may not).

If logical (ok not a typical Political attribute) then they will wait for some weeks of schools fully reopening before announcing a date for initial domestic travel starting. So likely the week before the various State school holidays begin to allow the teething problems of restart to be worked through before the crush. But what will the crush be? Empty middle seats? Everyone with a mask and no meals/drinks? Everyone seated only being allowed off one row at a time? Security queues with 1.5m spacing (pity the terminals don't have the room for this if more than 3 flights an hour)?

Will the baggage handlers be wearing gloves and other PPE? How long will the turn around times blow out to? Remember Q was caught restricting their on-board cleaning to one cloth (reused on multiple flights) & water for wiping down the trays but not armrests.

Life has changed.

 

[jakeseven7]

Heard an interview last night which suggested any NZ arrangement might be a double-edged sword. In that the deal would allow the restart of travel across the ditch, with no quarantine period at either end, but would rely on each party continuing to adhere to very high entry standards otherwise.

It was suggested that in practice, this means that bilaterally both countries (or NZ and specific Aust states, if ongoing community transmission means that this can't be extended nationally in Australia) would have to maintain the same admission standards for those outside the "bubble". The suggestion was that this would make it HARDER, not easier, to loosen restrictions to other nations. Eg, both Aust and NZ would have to simultaneously agree to ease restrictions on arrivals from South Korea, say, otherwise it would mean that the Aust-NZ arrangement would lapse.

So that will push the US out to 2025 at the rate they are going probably

 

[RAM]

Likewise Singapore once they've gotten their immigrant worker problem under control again and some of the Pacific Islands. The latter probably suffer the most from the lack of tourism. I for one would be more than up to spare some of my money in New Caledonia or Fiji.

The Singapore migrant worker issue is intractable. Many come from countries that were amongst the last to eradicate smallpox after a 37 yr global effort. CV may well be as hard to control in Banglesdesh, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and in much of Africa. For example Zimbabwe had a very good medical system during the smallpox fight, today it is barely functioning in much of the country.

So if Singapore is seeing the workers coming/going once more then the risk of re-infection is massive both for Singapore and anyone who transits through the airport. Remember that when CV began - all the migrant workers' countries were free of CV.

 

[jakeseven7]

The US treasury secretary said on TV overnight it was way to soon the say whether the US will lift bans on non-citizens before 2021. The priority is on domestic economy (& travel)

They don't need to really rush or worry as I suspect the US has fallen to almost dead last on most people's wish list to visit (unless absolutely necessary)