Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[lovetravellingoz]

So perhaps we can see:

NZ June
Pacific Nations July/August
Asia August/September?

When international travel will resume in this order?

I don't think there will be forecasts for Europe and Americas since they are still heavily impacted by Coronavirus

With no 14 day quarantine:
NZ June = Maybe and that would be late June. Suspect will be post-June and initially I expect it will be limited business travellers and those travelling for family reasons. Leisure travel to come later in a stage 2.
Pacific Nations July/August = Suspect later, and only after NZ has no problems.

With 14 day quarantine:
Asia August/September? = Cannot see at all in 2020, and when recommenced will require 14 day quarantine.

 

[OZDUCK]

I have already resigned myself to mainly domestic travel for at least 18 months and more like over the next two years accept for:

1/ NZ Yes.

2/ Some Pacific Island could soon join that list.

The Cook Islands declared Covid-19-free

The Cook Islands has been declared free of Covid-19, allowing churches to reopen this weekend.

www.rnz.co.nz

Travel Advisory | Cook Islands

Travel Entry Requirements

cookislands.travel

Taiwan could be a possibility, but given their links with the rest of Asia if they open up to us they will probably also allow other countries, and if so they could then become risky.


Maybe I could treat Norfolk Island as an "International trip"

With Christmas Island (The Indian Ocean one that is) you can get Duty Free goods and no visa etc. The only trouble is you can't get into W.A. at present!

 

[CityRail]

Asia is big area. Maybe small parts of Asia. I can't see any confidence in Indonesia, for example, opening up by then, if at all during 2020.

I agree that Asia is a big area, and I think only selected countries, such as Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, South Korea etc. will open.
Japan will possibly follow through and once HK open its border to China perhaps we can see whether we can open China depends on how many imported cases there are in Hong Kong.
Yet I think if Spain can plan to open borders by October, then I think Australia has a good chance to open our border with part of Asia without the need to quarantine.
For 2021, we might need to see the whole world open before March 2021, because by then Universities will need to recommence Face to Face lectures, or we will see lots of lecturers and tutors lost their jobs.

 

[CityRail]

Indicators for phased opening

In response to Ms Sylvia Lim (Aljunied GRC) on what indicators the Government will look at in considering lifting the circuit breaker measures, Mr Gan lists 3 points:

The number of cases
The global situation
And whether there is a system in place to allow the country to open up safely.

On numbers, Mr Gan says that the Government needs to be assured that community transmission locally is stemmed, or very low.

Community cases should ideally fall to zero or single digits daily, with very low numbers of unlinked cases, not just for one day, but sustained over a period of time.

There also needs to be a decrease in migrant worker cases, he adds.

On the global situation, Mr Gan says the Government would review the rate of transmissions in other countries, as well as what they have done to contain the spread.

Any reopening of Singapore’s borders is likely to start small and selectively. It will also continue to impose a mix of isolation and test requirements to protect ourselves from new imported cases leading to community spread.

Finally, Mr Gan says that Singapore must have a system in place to allow us to open up safely.

We need to step up our capability and capacity to test and detect cases early, contact trace quickly, promptly ringfence close contacts, and establish the original source of the infection to stop other undetected transmission chains if any.

ST PHOTO: LIM YAOHUI

Source: Live coverage: Ministerial statements on Covid-19 situation in Singapore

Singapore Government is talking about re-opening the border as well, I think that might likely in a few months time we will be able to travel to Singapore, hopefully.

 

[drron]

Well if Europe is open in October we will go.We have no problems with Quarantine on return.A benefit of retirement.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

While all these countries may open their borders, I doubt Australia will open its own, either for inbound or outbound. The risk is just too high

 

[CityRail]

While all these countries may open their borders, I doubt Australia will open its own, either for inbound or outbound. The risk is just too high

If the Oxford University trial is successful on Humans, that means that a vaccine will be available from September, which if we can successfully acquire vaccines to vaccinate the high risk group, we might be able to open our borders sooner, hopefully before the end of the year.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

If the Oxford University trial is successful on Humans, that means that a vaccine will be available from September, which if we can successfully acquire vaccines to vaccinate the high risk group, we might be able to open our borders sooner, hopefully before the end of the year.

If there's a vaccine there'll be no need to limit the opening of borders to 'select' countries. That's an entirely different issue.

 

[p--and--t]

There was a spokesperson from the CSIRO on ABC this afternoon.

The announcement was that there are two competing very promising vaccines in their opinion.

They considered it very good news and that on their analysis if the vaccines pass all the mandatory tests, there is the possibility one of them will be approved for manufacture in 9-12 months from today.

 

[jase05]

Some chatter at work today from QF staff that they have heard if the NZ/AUS bubble idea gets the go ahead that QF is investigating ADL-CHC but no idea if that would be with JQ or QF.
None of those really appeal to us but could be good for the State

 

[oznflfan]

Bring all these forward 3-6 months.
Domestic by 30/9/20
NZ by 31/12/20
Some SE Asia 31/3/21
Europe 30/6/21

Update 4/5/2020



Domestic by 31/7/2020

Nz and pacific islands 30/9/2020

Se asia to hard to separate all countries, refer below

Rest of the world 30/6/2021 sticking to that



Thinking a quick trip to vanuatu in mid november. I can take matthew reilly's new book to read, should be out late october this year. Tradition of mine to read his new releases on my semi annual time away in se asia.

 

[drron]

While all these countries may open their borders, I doubt Australia will open its own, either for inbound or outbound. The risk is just too high

What is the risk of allowing outbound?
I accept if we do leave for Europe in October that on return We will have to go through mandatory Quarantine at our expense.i see no problem with that.I would also insist a day or 2 prior to release from Quarantine we get tested for Covid.

 

[moa999]

Might be a few retirees that can live with those terms... But not the majority

And I suspect you're not prepared to pay a fare reflecting a 10% load factor

 

[MEL_Traveller]

What is the risk of allowing outbound?
I accept if we do leave for Europe in October that on return We will have to go through mandatory Quarantine at our expense.i see no problem with that.I would also insist a day or 2 prior to release from Quarantine we get tested for Covid.

I guess the same as now - depends whether the Aust government changes their 'do not travel' status. It would be interesting to see how a voluntary quarantine would work... cash bond before departure? Could you cancel your quarantine hotel if your travel plans changed while you were overseas? If you could, what happens if you no longer have funds to cover your quarantine on arrival back into Oz? Will hotels still want to lock off rooms for covid quarantine if they could be open for regular domestic travel?

 

[support]

A number of posts have been removed from this thread discussing Donald Trump and matters that have no bearing on the thread topic. Please remain on-topic and if you see thread drift, reporting it will serve you better than responding to it.

 

[dajop]

I guess the same as now - depends whether the Aust government changes their 'do not travel' status. It would be interesting to see how a voluntary quarantine would work... cash bond before departure? Could you cancel your quarantine hotel if your travel plans changed while you were overseas? If you could, what happens if you no longer have funds to cover your quarantine on arrival back into Oz? Will hotels still want to lock off rooms for covid quarantine if they could be open for regular domestic travel?

If opening up travel to certain destinations is contingent on quarantine on entry to Australia, and this becomes "permanent" for the forseeable future, I suspect there will be dedicated quarantine facilities set up (which may or may not be existing hotels) pre-paid bookings will be required. No booking = no boarding flight (to leave Australia for Australian residents) or to travel to Australia (for foreign residents). I don't see why these would necessarily be all that different to current models, the more you pay the more flexibility you have in the booking. Who knows, one could see a few higher end quarantine properties popping up with rooms with dedicated (but fenced) courtyards.

Of course a better solution might be self-isolation with some sort of wristband or anklet technology to those within a reasonable (affordable) distance of airport with dedicated transport.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Personally from what I have heard and read mortality rates and case rates are not directly comparable for all countries, and I personally will factor in my view of the travel risk for individual countries.

The constant claim that home deaths don't get counted as Covid deaths is basically wrong.Everyone who dies in most countries have to have a death certificate done.In NYC these are often filled out as Covid deaths if any witness says the deceased had a fever or any respiratory symptoms.
It is true though that home deaths will take longer to be tallied than those that die in hospitals.
It is a requirement in most countries for a death certificate to be completed before a burial can take place.

everyone who dies in most countries

So not all countries are directly comparable then.

Plus many third world countries will not have the resources to accurately test who had CV 19.

It is true though that home deaths will take longer to be tallied than those that die in hospitals.

So you would seem to actually agree with myself that CV19 deaths are not yet accurate, nor directly comparable, in all jurisdictions. And the lag is only but one reason. Some deaths are not correctly attributed, or can be attributed differently. Some deaths will never be investigated properly. Also someone may die who had CV19, but the actual cause of death may be unknown. Some will die without anyone knowing that they had CV19.

That they are not accurate and/ or that they are comparing different things has been stated by numerous officials and commentators in multiple countries and states.

Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries

In many parts of the world, official death tolls undercount the total number of fatalities

www.economist.com

"And even the most complete covid-19 records will not count people who were killed by conditions that might normally have been treated, had hospitals not been overwhelmed by a surge of patients needing intensive care "

Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ

In Italy, the death rate from Covid-19 is more than 10 times greater than in Germany. Why does the death rate vary so much internationally?

www.bbc.com

"In the US, doctors have more discretion: they are asked to record whether the patient died “as a result of this illness” when reporting Covid-19 deaths to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It could be easy to see how a physician might believe that a Covid-19 patient who died of, say, a heart attack or brain aneurysm didn’t die as a result of Covid-19, and so wouldn’t report accordingly. "

 

[Aus ATC]

I agree the "trans-tasman bubble" has merit - but it seems a little ambitious without freedom of movement within Australia first. It doesn't hurt to plan to open up flights to/from NZ, but in the context of a broader timetable of lifting domestic travel restrictions first.

As for the wider international restrictions, a further statement from the PM regarding the next few months would be helpful. We have bookings for August and September - I expect to cancel them, but for now I am waiting for something that will limit "cancellation fees" such as a continuation of the "do not travel" direction. For now any cancellation would be regarded as "voluntary".

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Greece have indicated that they would like to reopen Greece to international tourism in a modified and restricted way from July.

I just watch an interview with the Greek Prime Minister on this (no link), but a media link is:

Summer Comeback? Greece Wants Tourists Back From July

Greece will start opening hotels in June, but it is not expecting a summer boom as coronavirus keeps potential visitors at home.

www.forbes.com

 

[MEL_Traveller]

If opening up travel to certain destinations is contingent on quarantine on entry to Australia, and this becomes "permanent" for the forseeable future, I suspect there will be dedicated quarantine facilities set up (which may or may not be existing hotels) pre-paid bookings will be required. No booking = no boarding flight (to leave Australia for Australian residents) or to travel to Australia (for foreign residents). I don't see why these would necessarily be all that different to current models, the more you pay the more flexibility you have in the booking. Who knows, one could see a few higher end quarantine properties popping up with rooms with dedicated (but fenced) courtyards.

Of course a better solution might be self-isolation with some sort of wristband or anklet technology to those within a reasonable (affordable) distance of airport with dedicated transport.

So how do the logistics work? Say I'm the only passenger arriving on the BA15 from SIN on 3 September. Dedicated screening staff at the airport ($), dedicated transport to take me to the hotel (cost + cleaning), I get to the hotel and I'm the only person booked, there's the cost of the room, and then 3 rostered police officers in 8-hour shifts = $1000 a day. So hotel + police + bus = $1500 for day one and $1300 a day thereafter?

Let's say I agree and pay my money in advance. I'm then overseas and I get a job and decide to stay for 6 months. Do I get my money back? I do? Then I decide to come home. Can't be denied entry. No longer have the money to pay.

Voluntary quarantine might not be the answer.