Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[RAM]

I think it has been widely publicised that production of likely candidates is already well underway. Also, the community working on the vaccinations would be having a general understanding of success or otherwise of their trials, well before the scientific processes and reviews are completed.

It is never the scientists that win an argument with the executives running pharma companies, never.

Equally, the history of scientists being bought & paid for by industries is vast - asbestos, thalidomyde, tobacco and much more close to home in Australia - PFAS.

As pressure for coronavirus vaccine mounts, scientists debate risks of accelerated testing

Drugmakers are working as quickly as possible to develop a vaccine to combat the rapidly spreading coronavirus that has infected more than 100,000 people worldwide.

www.reuters.com

Studies have suggested that coronavirus vaccines carry the risk of what is known as vaccine enhancement, where instead of protecting against infection, the vaccine can actually make the disease worse when a vaccinated person is infected with the virus. The mechanism that causes that risk is not fully understood and is one of the stumbling blocks that has prevented the successful development of a coronavirus vaccine.

Normally, researchers would take months to test for the possibility of vaccine enhancement in animals. Given the urgency to stem the spread of the new coronavirus, some drugmakers are moving straight into small-scale human tests, without waiting for the completion of such animal tests.

Hotez worked on development of a vaccine for SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), the coronavirus behind a major 2003 outbreak, and found that some vaccinated animals developed more severe disease compared with unvaccinated animals when they were exposed to the virus.
......
The plan is consistent with the WHO consensus and FDA requirements, said Dr Emily Erbelding, director of the Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the NIH. The trial is expected to take 14 months, a spokeswoman for the NIH said.

Dr Gregory Poland, a virologist and vaccine researcher with the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, expressed doubts about that approach. “This is important, but it has to be done in a way that reassures scientists and the public that these (vaccines) are not only efficacious, but safe,” he told Reuters.
......
Research, including that conducted by Hotez, has shown that coronaviruses in particular have the potential to produce this kind of response. But testing for the risk of vaccine enhancement is time-consuming because it requires scientists to breed mice that are genetically altered to respond to the virus like humans. Work on these and other animal models is just getting under way in several laboratories around the world.

Moderna, Inovio and several other vaccine developers are not waiting for that process to be completed and are planning to launch human trials in record time for a virus that was only discovered in December.

________________________________________________________________​

The concern is that the time frames initially spoken about for 'sped up' development processes talked of 14 to 18 months from the start of the first human trials.

Now the message has been modified. Remember up until CV - no successful vaccine has ever gone from inception to delivery in under 4 years. Even 14 months seems a stretch.

14 months would have made the earliest entry into use June 2021 for the 1st vaccine candidate - and is what the graph I posted documents. The graph is as of late August - so up-to-date on the 'sped-up' time frames. None show entry into use by end of Q1 2020.

The issue with attempts previously for different CV vaccines (SARS etc) is that every one caused worse outcomes in 'some people'. The rate of worse outcomes was greater than the lifes expected to be saved.

The proponents claim it is 'unlikely' to be a problem as the vaccine development this time 'is different'. Normally hope is not a bankable investment in peoples' future other than when science has failed.

 

[p--and--t]

It is never the scientists that win an argument with the executives running pharma companies, never.

Equally, the history of scientists being bought & paid for by industries is vast - asbestos, thalidomyde, tobacco and much more close to home in Australia - PFAS.

As pressure for coronavirus vaccine mounts, scientists debate risks of accelerated testing

Drugmakers are working as quickly as possible to develop a vaccine to combat the rapidly spreading coronavirus that has infected more than 100,000 people worldwide.

www.reuters.com

Studies have suggested that coronavirus vaccines carry the risk of what is known as vaccine enhancement, where instead of protecting against infection, the vaccine can actually make the disease worse when a vaccinated person is infected with the virus. The mechanism that causes that risk is not fully understood and is one of the stumbling blocks that has prevented the successful development of a coronavirus vaccine.

Normally, researchers would take months to test for the possibility of vaccine enhancement in animals. Given the urgency to stem the spread of the new coronavirus, some drugmakers are moving straight into small-scale human tests, without waiting for the completion of such animal tests.

Hotez worked on development of a vaccine for SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), the coronavirus behind a major 2003 outbreak, and found that some vaccinated animals developed more severe disease compared with unvaccinated animals when they were exposed to the virus.
......
The plan is consistent with the WHO consensus and FDA requirements, said Dr Emily Erbelding, director of the Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the NIH. The trial is expected to take 14 months, a spokeswoman for the NIH said.

Dr Gregory Poland, a virologist and vaccine researcher with the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, expressed doubts about that approach. “This is important, but it has to be done in a way that reassures scientists and the public that these (vaccines) are not only efficacious, but safe,” he told Reuters.
......
Research, including that conducted by Hotez, has shown that coronaviruses in particular have the potential to produce this kind of response. But testing for the risk of vaccine enhancement is time-consuming because it requires scientists to breed mice that are genetically altered to respond to the virus like humans. Work on these and other animal models is just getting under way in several laboratories around the world.

Moderna, Inovio and several other vaccine developers are not waiting for that process to be completed and are planning to launch human trials in record time for a virus that was only discovered in December.

________________________________________________________________​

The concern is that the time frames initially spoken about for 'sped up' development processes talked of 14 to 18 months from the start of the first human trials.

Now the message has been modified. Remember up until CV - no successful vaccine has ever gone from inception to delivery in under 4 years. Even 14 months seems a stretch.

14 months would have made the earliest entry into use June 2021 for the 1st vaccine candidate - and is what the graph I posted documents. The graph is as of late August - so up-to-date on the 'sped-up' time frames. None show entry into use by end of Q1 2020.

The issue with attempts previously for different CV vaccines (SARS etc) is that every one caused worse outcomes in 'some people'. The rate of worse outcomes was greater than the lifes expected to be saved.

The proponents claim it is 'unlikely' to be a problem as the vaccine development this time 'is different'. Normally hope is not a bankable investment in peoples' future other than when science has failed.

If it helps the economy by skipping adequate testing, that would be fine by some politicians. Don't let a few deaths get in the way of making a few bucks. Just check out Tony Abbott's recent speech and Trump's erratic pronouncements.

 

[love_the_life]

So what are people's views on the batch of Australians living in the UK who are trying to plan a charter flight to bring their babies home to meet their relatives, considering that most of these people are saying that they consider the UK their home but simply must must must introduce the babies to grandparents etc. Perhaps I am a bit harsh but my view is get over it, will a 3 month baby remember granny? YMMV

 

[DC3]

So what are people's views on the batch of Australians living in the UK who are trying to plan a charter flight to bring their babies home to meet their relatives, considering that most of these people are saying that they consider the UK their home but simply must must must introduce the babies to grandparents etc. Perhaps I am a bit harsh but my view is get over it, will a 3 month baby remember granny? YMMV

Is there a bit of leg-pulling, here? Seems so over the top to actually be true.

How did their fore-fathers/mothers cope? Months in a sailing ship, even if they survived the journey.

 

[love_the_life]

Is there a bit of leg-pulling, here? Seems so over the top to actually be true.

How did their fore-fathers/mothers cope? Months in a sailing ship, even if they survived the journey.

Verily the article

Aussies looking to charter 'noisy' flight full of newborns to be in Australia for Christmas

Flights to Australia are so hard to secure, a group of UK-based mums and dads are hoping to charter a plane to get their newborns home in time for Christmas.

www.abc.net.au

And there was a spot on the news the other night with a couple of the mothers saying how devastating it was that the little ones couldn't meet the relos and friends back in Au.

 

[DC3]

... And there was a spot on the news the other night with a couple of the mothers saying how devastating it was that the little ones couldn't meet the relos and friends back in Au.

.... and devastating, to boot. This is just too much.

 

[jakeseven7]

So what are people's views on the batch of Australians living in the UK who are trying to plan a charter flight to bring their babies home to meet their relatives, considering that most of these people are saying that they consider the UK their home but simply must must must introduce the babies to grandparents etc. Perhaps I am a bit harsh but my view is get over it, will a 3 month baby remember granny? YMMV

The thing to consider here is that the Uk and Europe have ‘moved on’ from their initial first wave covid very differently to Australians.

They are in a very very different state of mind and live in a differently framed view of the virus compared to Australians, honestly I speak to my colleagues and friends across Europe and sometimes they are like ‘What oh yea the virus’.... the news is not reporting daily counts, there certainly aren’t senior leaders lining up every day to announce them either.

This might explain why this article and many others are popping up.

 

[N860CR]

The thing to consider here is that the Uk and Europe have ‘moved on’ from their initial first wave covid very differently to Australians.

They are in a very very different state of mind and live in a differently framed view of the virus compared to Australians, honestly I speak to my colleagues and friends across Europe and sometimes they are like ‘What oh yea the virus’.... the news is not reporting daily counts, there certainly aren’t senior leaders lining up every day to announce them either.

This might explain why this article and many others are popping up.

Yep. I’ve even got friends going on (brace yourselves) international holidays

From the people I’ve been speaking to, Australia is seen as quite the oddity.

 

[drron]

Indeed other countries are opening up well in advance of Australia.I did link to an article on switzerland but apparently behind a pay waal so some quotes.

But as economic stimulus packages are wound down across Europe and Covid-19 cases tick up, Bern has signalled it is the economy that must be the priority in the months ahead.

In a sign of the wealthy Alpine state’s bullishness, rules of social gatherings will under current plans be relaxed from October to allow groups of more than 1,000 to congregate. Ministers spent the week with representatives of the tourism and hospitality sector discussing how best to boost Switzerland’s important winter holiday season.


Five months on, Swiss public health authorities much better understood the dynamics and “that [lockdowns] are not sustainable”, she said. “There’s been a big shift in focus. What we’re seeing now in Switzerland is people getting used to the idea of living in a risk society. We’re asking: ‘how do we live with this?’”

Since Switzerland’s formal state of emergency ended in mid-June it has been left to the 26 individual cantons to set their own rules. They are as sanguine as the federal government. Zurich, the biggest city, introduced compulsory mask wearing in shops only last week, months after other European countries brought in similar legislation.



For some policymakers in Bern, the whole idea of a trade-off between the economy and public health was a false one. The strategy was never to defeat the virus using public policy tools, said one senior scientific adviser to the government in Bern, but to cope with it.

“The important thing is that we can manage the situation. When I look at other countries, maybe they’re less confident that they can,” the adviser said. “Maybe that’s why you’re seeing more border closures and hardline measures being taken and talked about elsewhere.”

Bullish Switzerland moves on from lockdown and focuses on economy

Critics warn of complacency but Bern believes the country must learn to live with virus

amp.ft.com

 

[HokitikaGold]

It is called "cenicide" Deliberately allowing older persons to perish for the good of "the economy". But it does not recognize that even younger people who do not immediately die, suffer from Covid health problems for - perhaps, forever.

 

[shadowangel]

Australia might not open until middle to late next year at this stage. I'm in Thailand atm, we had no local cases in 100+ days then 1 person gets it and there is panic.

 

[DC3]

It is called "cenicide" Deliberately allowing older persons to perish for the good of "the economy" ....

Something like that espoused by an ex Australian PM recently, whilst in the UK.

 

[drron]

It is called "cenicide" Deliberately allowing older persons to perish for the good of "the economy". But it does not recognize that even younger people who do not immediately die, suffer from Covid health problems for - perhaps, forever.

Of course we don't have the answer to that.however many viral illnesses have serious persistent problems or strange immunological problems during the disease.Most of what I see decribed as complications of Covid have been described with other viruses.And if you have ever witnessed a 16 year old girl die of SSPE as I have you wouldn't think measles is a benign virus.
Interestingly this came up on my feed today.

Citizen Scientists Take on the Challenge of Long-Haul COVID-19

Coronaviruses are a frequent cause of the common cold. Most of us bounce back from colds without any lasting health effects. So, you might think that individuals who survive other infectious diseas…

directorsblog.nih.gov

This sounds quite classical of post viral fatique which for instance is quite common with EBV-Glandular fever for example.

 

[N860CR]

Of course we don't have the answer to that

And it seems to be reported as “fact” just to suit the agenda. Just like every death by a “younger” person is national breaking news, but no actual information is ever provided.

 

[p--and--t]

It is called "cenicide" Deliberately allowing older persons to perish for the good of "the economy". But it does not recognize that even younger people who do not immediately die, suffer from Covid health problems for - perhaps, forever.

Something like that espoused by an ex Australian PM recently, whilst in the UK. ☹

Some very right wing economists might find that a very attractive proposition and encourage the dropping of all restrictions to assist the economy to recover. Remove everyone over the age of say 70. Nursing home, medicare costs, pension payments drop markedly. Big spending in funerals and wakes etc plus associated travel and accommodation for mourners. Then you have distribution of any related estates which give a boost to a younger generation who may spend that in the real-estate market or retail, boosting tax receipts and reducing the unemployed which in turn reduces dole payments and increases tax receipts. Would appeal to younger voters to have more freedom and remove the more circumspect voters who aren't as easily fooled. Wins all round.

Except......

 

[jakeseven7]

And it seems to be reported as “fact” just to suit the agenda. Just like every death by a “younger” person is national breaking news, but no actual information is ever provided.

Privacy, majority of families don’t want their loved ones pre existing medical conditions / complications and health condition broadcast on 7 nightly news.
Who can blame them?

 

[drron]

Some very right wing economists might find that a very attractive proposition and encourage the dropping of all restrictions to assist the economy to recover. Remove everyone over the age of say 70. Nursing home, medicare costs, pension payments drop markedly. Big spending in funerals and wakes etc plus associated travel and accommodation for mourners. Then you have distribution of any related estates which give a boost to a younger generation who may spend that in the real-estate market or retail, boosting tax receipts and reducing the unemployed which in turn reduces dole payments and increases tax receipts. Would appeal to younger voters to have more freedom and remove the more circumspect voters who aren't as easily fooled. Wins all round.

Except......

Though from the ABS 20% of Aged Care home residents on average die each year.And reported earlier in the thread the actual numbers at the beginning of the month were below average this year.
So reporting these stats can be dangerous as you are very likely to be taken out of context.

 

[antycbr]

Privacy, majority of families don’t want their loved ones pre existing medical conditions / complications and health condition broadcast on 7 nightly news.
Who can blame them?

Why are we reporting them at all then? Reporting the comorbidities of patients in a deidentified manner would inform the public who may suffer those conditions but instead we are using the privacy argument selectively.

 

[Pushka]

Why are we reporting them at all then? Reporting the comorbidities of patients in a deidentified manner would inform the public who may suffer those conditions but instead we are using the privacy argument selectively.

Because keeping people scared is keeping people compliant. Sometimes a good thing but eventually it wears thin. SA uses the scare tactic to ensure compliance. We have not had community transmission for weeks - they are all imports. Yet not that long ago new border restrictions were announced and limits reintroduced on pubs etc. That was explained by stating there would likely be a second wave here in October Then yesterday the sewerage tests showed two positives. But then it was stated those samples were historic and are now negative. Maybe they are increasing restrictions again. But people here are starting to question the restrictions. And where is the science? I'm fine with social distancing as it keeps the numpties that are in society away from me but the rest?

 

[jakeseven7]

Why are we reporting them at all then? Reporting the comorbidities of patients in a deidentified manner would inform the public who may suffer those conditions but instead we are using the privacy argument selectively.

Agree with @Pushka - they aren’t because it doesn’t suit the state government agendas.

Remember when our controversial QLD Cho slapped COVID as cause of death so fast it made your head spin, on that young man in regional QLD, then had to backtrack just as quickly when it turned out she stuffed up the testing? They were desperately hoping it would fit into their storylines.

To get re-elected Anna, WA premier, NT premier need to keep everyone whipped into a state of unquestionable fear.