Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dvt]

So we are opening up in NSW on Monday

USA - 64% one dose (55%full)
EU - 67% one dose (63%full)
UK - 72% one dose (66%full)

NSW (as of today) - 74.5% one dose (56%full)

We have more restrictions on Monday than any of these places right now.
Let’s take a breath and give it a chance.

UK are currently 90% one dose (82% full)

Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?

A look at progress made in vaccinating the country, as more than 52 million people have received at least one dose and 38 million have had a booster or third dose.

www.bbc.com

 

[dajop]

UK are currently 90% one dose (82% full)

Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?

A look at progress made in vaccinating the country, as more than 52 million people have received at least one dose and 38 million have had a booster or third dose.

www.bbc.com

Doesn't it depend on the denominator. The data you refer to indicates that 82% of 16+ have received full dose. Isn't Princess Fiona's data the proportion of the total population vaccinated?

Of 16+ in UK it is 90%/82%, whilst in NSW it is 89%/70%.
Of total population, as per Princess Fiona, in UK it is 72%/66% and NSW it is 75%/56%

I mentioned above, that Singapore has 85% of total population with first dose and 83% with second dose and similar restrictions to what NSW will have (probably stricter in terms of compliance), and like Sydney - probably has similar proportion of people who have developed antibodies through exposure to the virus (i.e. much lower than UK, US and EU) - and is getting 3000+ cases a day, but relatively low hospitalisation rates. Is probably a good a guide as any for opening a country that had pursued a Covid elimination strategy until Delta came along.

 

[Ric]

Any more news on exemptions to exit our prison island in November is to be abolished? If this is going to be abolished, then there's no point to apply for exemption if one is trying to leave in 2nd half November.
I asked because NSW designated Dec1 for international travel!?

 

[Flashback]

Mental health has been completely ignored by "health officials" too. In fact, some of these health officials have ignored everything apart from COVID-19. It's almost as if we have no other medical issues whatsoever.

My mental health is in a much better place now that I'm travelling regularly again.

Any more news on exemptions to exit our prison island in November is to be abolished? If this is going to be abolished, then there's no point to apply for exemption if one is trying to leave in 2nd half November.
I asked because NSW designated Dec1 for international travel!?

I would apply regardless, things can change a lot in 7 weeks.

 

[somebol]

It's been a week since the "announcement" and we still have no actual details.
Flights, specially coming back in Jan, are still scarce and cost the equivalent of all my body parts.

 

[OATEK]

DFAT are obviously concerned about a sudden rush on renewing/applying for passports as the broder opening might be moved forward. From the Australian:
According to DFAT analysis, since the start of the pandemic about 1.3 million people have put off renewing their passport because of border closures, and a further 600,000 have delayed making applications for one.

 

[drron]

could not agree more! that horrible CHO not so Young in Queensland could not give two hoots about mental health! It's all fear mongering and scare tactics, we need the borders open for many reasons mental health being pretty high on the list.

Indeed.She has been dobbed in by AP as the person who signs off on compassionate exemptions.Basically she doesn't allow them on the basis of covid might get in.
Well here in tasmania I have written letters to support 20-30 exemptions based on a relatives health condition.They have all been successful.All have been residents of high risk areas.The last was last Friday for a daughter from Melbourne.And despite this being done it has resulted in no covid cases.
The authorities shouldn't have been giving her those cases to decide.

Now last Friday there was a potential problem when an exemption was granted for a teenage boy who is a Tasmanian to return from Melbourne.His arrival covid test was positive.Put in home quarantine which happened before the test result was known.So the lad took himself off to the local supermarket on Saturday morning without a mask.So far no other positive tests.This was here in Launceston.But still nobody wearing masks.

 

[MARTINE]

Indeed.She has been dobbed in by AP as the person who signs off on compassionate exemptions.Basically she doesn't allow them on the basis of covid might get in.
Well here in tasmania I have written letters to support 20-30 exemptions based on a relatives health condition.They have all been successful.All have been residents of high risk areas.The last was last Friday for a daughter from Melbourne.And despite this being done it has resulted in no covid cases.
The authorities shouldn't have been giving her those cases to decide.

Now last Friday there was a potential problem when an exemption was granted for a teenage boy who is a Tasmanian to return from Melbourne.His arrival covid test was positive.Put in home quarantine which happened before the test result was known.So the lad took himself off to the local supermarket on Saturday morning without a mask.So far no other positive tests.This was here in Launceston.But still nobody wearing masks.

I didn’t realise footballers required compassion….

 

[Chalkie]

Doesn't it depend on the denominator. The data you refer to indicates that 82% of 16+ have received full dose. Isn't Princess Fiona's data the proportion of the total population vaccinated?

Of 16+ in UK it is 90%/82%, whilst in NSW it is 89%/70%.
Of total population, as per Princess Fiona, in UK it is 72%/66% and NSW it is 75%/56%

I mentioned above, that Singapore has 85% of total population with first dose and 83% with second dose and similar restrictions to what NSW will have (probably stricter in terms of compliance), and like Sydney - probably has similar proportion of people who have developed antibodies through exposure to the virus (i.e. much lower than UK, US and EU) - and is getting 3000+ cases a day, but relatively low hospitalisation rates. Is probably a good a guide as any for opening a country that had pursued a Covid elimination strategy until Delta came along.

British Columbia is a good comparator for NSW and Victoria - it has foundational, cultural and demographic similarities to those states.

The Canadian borders have never been universally closed. It has always been possible (subject to transport availability) for Canadian citizens and permanent residents to leave and enter Canada. Canada's been open to tourism in a limited way since about July. The US land border is open to US residents. Full vaccination and a negative PCR test are required to come to Canada if you're a foreigner, with unvaccinated citizens and permanent residents subject to self-isolation and testing protocols.

BC (and most of the rest of Canada) has a range of public health restrictions still in place. In BC, masks must be worn in all indoor public spaces and there are capacity restraints on indoor events (a bit complicated, but basically 50% of venue capacity). Proof of vaccination is required to access indoor non-essential activities such as the gym, restaurants, bars, concerts, theatre, sports matches and other indoor recreational activities. There are no exceptions or exemptions for the proof of vaccination scheme. The Chief Health Officer of BC takes the view that if you are one of the tiny number of people with a proved health condition that precludes vaccination, you are in a vulnerable health position and should not be exposing yourself or others to the greater risk of acquiring or transmitting a Covid infection as an unvaccinated person.

British Columbia is at these vaccination levels:

D1 total population = 79.45% (89.83% 12+ eligibles)
D2 total population = 73.36% (82.97% 12+ eligibles)

(Pfizer has submitted an application to Health Canada for marketing approval of its 5 to 11 vaccine, and BC has said it is ready to go immediately on the approval being given. My prediction is that vax rates will top out at 95% of 5+ eligibles once that happens, which will be about 85% of the total population).

BC "re-opened" at 70% D1 on 1 July. The graphs below show what things have looked like since then, in an environment of increased human interactions. The pandemic in BC is now fairly and squarely a pandemic of unvaccinated adults. They are consuming our healthcare resources and driving doctors and nurses mad and sad as those incredible medical professionals treat what are largely easily preventable illnesses.



The moving 7 day average case count ranged between 634 and 754 throughout September. If you split out the vaccinated hospitalisations and deaths lines from the above graph they're basically flat lines close to the zero axis. The overwhelming majority of new cases, hospitalisations and deaths are in unvaccinated adults. There's about 350 people in Covid wards on any given day at the moment, over 90% of whom are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated.

So NSW and Victoria need to prepare themselves - this is what re-opening might look like for them. I am personally mostly fine with the approach taken by BC. As a fully vaccinated person, I can enjoy pretty much everything I enjoyed pre-pandemic. All of the activities I do take place in a fully vaccinated environment, socially I only mix with fully vaccinated people and the only time I am potentially exposed to unvaccinated people (at the supermarket, on public transport), everyone has to wear a mask.

But in a population of 4.9 million, the total of unvaccinated people (including children, who are efficient virus spreaders even they are less affected by the virus) is 980,000. That's a lot of people still circulating Covid and clogging up the hospitals. Even if we get to 85% fully vaxxed, that will leave 735,000 people to continue to spread Covid around with abandon. "Living with Covid" is not cost-free, but the alternative (locked down and socially isolated) I think comes at a greater cost.

 

[justinbrett]

British Columbia is a good comparator for NSW and Victoria - it has foundational, cultural and demographic similarities to those states.

The Canadian borders have never been universally closed. It has always been possible (subject to transport availability) for Canadian citizens and permanent residents to leave and enter Canada. Canada's been open to tourism in a limited way since about July. The US land border is open to US residents. Full vaccination and a negative PCR test are required to come to Canada if you're a foreigner, with unvaccinated citizens and permanent residents subject to self-isolation and testing protocols.

BC (and most of the rest of Canada) has a range of public health restrictions still in place. In BC, masks must be worn in all indoor public spaces and there are capacity restraints on indoor events (a bit complicated, but basically 50% of venue capacity). Proof of vaccination is required to access indoor non-essential activities such as the gym, restaurants, bars, concerts, theatre, sports matches and other indoor recreational activities. There are no exceptions or exemptions for the proof of vaccination scheme. The Chief Health Officer of BC takes the view that if you are one of the tiny number of people with a proved health condition that precludes vaccination, you are in a vulnerable health position and should not be exposing yourself or others to the greater risk of acquiring or transmitting a Covid infection as an unvaccinated person.

British Columbia is at these vaccination levels:

D1 total population = 79.45% (89.83% 12+ eligibles)
D2 total population = 73.36% (82.97% 12+ eligibles)

(Pfizer has submitted an application to Health Canada for marketing approval of its 5 to 11 vaccine, and BC has said it is ready to go immediately on the approval being given. My prediction is that vax rates will top out at 95% of 5+ eligibles once that happens, which will be about 85% of the total population).

BC "re-opened" at 70% D1 on 1 July. The graphs below show what things have looked like since then, in an environment of increased human interactions. The pandemic in BC is now fairly and squarely a pandemic of unvaccinated adults. They are consuming our healthcare resources and driving doctors and nurses mad and sad as those incredible medical professionals treat what are largely easily preventable illnesses.

View attachment 261513View attachment 261514

The moving 7 day average case count ranged between 634 and 754 throughout September. If you split out the vaccinated hospitalisations and deaths lines from the above graph they're basically flat lines close to the zero axis. The overwhelming majority of new cases, hospitalisations and deaths are in unvaccinated adults. There's about 350 people in Covid wards on any given day at the moment, over 90% of whom are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated.

So NSW and Victoria need to prepare themselves - this is what re-opening might look like for them. I am personally mostly fine with the approach taken by BC. As a fully vaccinated person, I can enjoy pretty much everything I enjoyed pre-pandemic. All of the activities I do take place in a fully vaccinated environment, socially I only mix with fully vaccinated people and the only time I am potentially exposed to unvaccinated people (at the supermarket, on public transport), everyone has to wear a mask.

But in a population of 4.9 million, the total of unvaccinated people (including children, who are efficient virus spreaders even they are less affected by the virus) is 980,000. That's a lot of people still circulating Covid and clogging up the hospitals. Even if we get to 85% fully vaxxed, that will leave 735,000 people to continue to spread Covid around with abandon. "Living with Covid" is not cost-free, but the alternative (locked down and socially isolated) I think comes at a greater cost.

Gladys and Kerry Chant said on numerous occasions they had been in frequent contact with various Canadian provincial counterparts which had informed their strategy.

Demographically NSW is probably somewhere in between BC and Ontario (Vancouver is much smaller than Sydney - Toronto is slightly bigger) but even Ontario is only getting around 600 cases a day (in fact per capita Ontario is doing a lot better than BC).

Considering some scaremongers are saying 50K a day (which is just ridiculous, even the UK is not getting that), sub 1K daily sounds pretty good.

 

[dajop]

Gladys and Kerry Chant said on numerous occasions they had been in frequent contact with various Canadian provincial counterparts which had informed their strategy.

Demographically NSW is probably somewhere in between BC and Ontario (Vancouver is much smaller than Sydney - Toronto is slightly bigger) but even Ontario is only getting around 600 cases a day (in fact per capita Ontario is doing a lot better than BC).

Could perhaps a difference be the number who contracted the virus prior to vaccinations being rolled out widely? In Ontario there have been 600,000 cases during the course of the pandemic whilst in NSW it’s about 1/9th of that amount. I don’t know the ins and outs of people having antibodies but that could mean slightly higher cases in NSW upon opening. Agree that’s tens of thousands of cases is ridiculous though.

 

[Telemachus]

The UK’s reopening to international travel is about to advance further with changes announced yesterday to take effect from 4am on Mon 11 Oct:

• Red list countries reduced by 47 to just 7 (Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, Peru, Venezuela) from which arrivals must go into hotel quarantine.
• All other countries are ‘Rest of the World’: no changes to 4 Oct regime so no home quarantine for fully vaccinated, Day 2 PCR required, though that PCR will be replaced by Rapid Antigen Lateral Flow test later in Oct (no date yet).
• No additional vaccines recognised but 37 additional countries added to the list of those approved for accepting proof of vaccination credentials.

Fuller official details here.

These changes are less significant than the wholesale revamp of the traffic light system that took effect on 4 Oct. Perhaps, though, the reduction in red list countries may help some Australians looking at travel to the UK: the most common transit ports are already ‘Rest of the World’ but there will now be more options without triggering quarantine on UK arrival.

The UK is progressively dismantling the country-based traffic light system in favour of using each passenger’s vaccination status as the key factor determining how they are processed on arrival. Australia, late to the party, is not going to use a traffic light system at all – though you could argue that the putative quarantine-free ‘bubbles’ are an equivalent mechanism.

 

[Chalkie]

Gladys and Kerry Chant said on numerous occasions they had been in frequent contact with various Canadian provincial counterparts which had informed their strategy.

That's reassuring to hear - I'd not seen any reports of that, and most news commentary focuses on jurisdictions such as the UK, US and Israel which I don't think are especially useful comparators for NSW or Victoria.

Demographically NSW is probably somewhere in between BC and Ontario (Vancouver is much smaller than Sydney - Toronto is slightly bigger) but even Ontario is only getting around 600 cases a day (in fact per capita Ontario is doing a lot better than BC).

Vancouver is smaller than Sydney numbers wise, but is a bit of a mirror: flattish "main plain", hilly north shore and population spread to the east (as opposed to the west). The socio-economic and cultural origin demographics are similar to Sydney in terms of concentrations of particular cultural origins too.

The difference between BC and Ontario is a bit puzzling, but I think variable community vaccination rates largely explain it. The Vancouver Coastal health region (which is Vancouver proper going up to Whistler and a bit of the BC coast) has the highest vax rates in the province at over 90% D1 eligibles (where I live, the Vancouver Midtown local health area, has the second highest vax rates in the province with D1 at 95% of eligibles). Vancouver Coastal is getting the lowest daily case counts, with between 75 and 85 new cases per day. To the east of Vancouver is the Fraser health region, which is the most populous health region, and has widely variable vaccination rates - from 76% D1 eligibles to 93% D1 eligibles, and the combination of under-vaccination and the demographic characteristics of many parts of Fraser (multigenerational housing; higher anti-vax sentiment) delivers the highest daily case numbers on a consistent basis. Also, the Interior and Northern health regions which are less populous but have even lower vax rates in many communities have been reliably delivering outbreaks in under-vaccinated communities.

Ontario's regional vaccination rates seem to be a bit more homogenous than British Columbia's. Also, Ontario's lockdown restrictions were harsher than BC's and went on for longer.

The main thing is to keep getting the jabs in arms. BC is being relentless about this, but the rate of D1 growth has slowed to a trickle. There was a distinct bump when the proof of vaccination scheme was announced, but that's tapered off now. When the 5 to 11s become eligible there'll be another bump, but the natural ceiling seems to be about 85% of the total population I think. That figure has been remarkably consistent since about May this year - there's 10% no jab no way, and 5% unlikely - which I classify as anti-vax as well for practical purposes.

Considering some scaremongers are saying 50K a day (which is just ridiculous, even the UK is not getting that), sub 1K daily sounds pretty good.

It is hard to see how NSW or Victoria could reach 50,000 new cases per day. I suppose on a raw population numbers basis it is possible, but it would really take some doing!

 

[Chalkie]

Could perhaps a difference be the number who contracted the virus prior to vaccinations being rolled out widely? In Ontario there have been 600,000 cases during the course of the pandemic whilst in NSW it’s about 1/9th of that amount. I don’t know the ins and outs of people having antibodies but that could mean slightly higher cases in NSW upon opening. Agree that’s tens of thousands of cases is ridiculous though.

Ontario went wild during the early stages of the pandemic. That's reflected in the death rate (Ontario has 66 deaths per 100K vs BC which has 39 per 100K). But I don't think I've seen any serology studies for Canada yet. They've been done in parts of the US and in the UK. In the UK serology studies say 94% of the population are estimated to have Covid (surface) antibodies (which, as an aside, overlooks the more important longer term T-cell immunity from previous infection or vaccination). I don't know whether the UK SIREN study (that looked at Covid reinfections) published in January has been updated, but that suggested reinfection was relatively rare within 5 months of first infection.

BC definitely had relatively low rates of native infection (not as low as Australian levels, but not particularly high on a global scale), and the overwhelming majority of defence against Covid has been delivered through vaccination. NSW and Victoria will be in a similar situation.

 

[Seat0B]

DFAT are obviously concerned about a sudden rush on renewing/applying for passports as the broder opening might be moved forward. From the Australian:
According to DFAT analysis, since the start of the pandemic about 1.3 million people have put off renewing their passport because of border closures, and a further 600,000 have delayed making applications for one.

Which they could have managed at least a little bit by extending people’s expiry dates by 12 months or allowing a discount for people who renewed when they obviously couldn’t travel. It’s not that hard to level out seasonal demand if you give it a bit of thought.

 

[antycbr]

Which they could have managed at least a little bit by extending people’s expiry dates by 12 months or allowing a discount for people who renewed when they obviously couldn’t travel. It’s not that hard to level out seasonal demand if you give it a bit of thought.

You can't extend passports as all of the info is encoded in the secure page and passport chip. You'd also need every other country in the world to recognise that extension even if it was possible...

 

[dajop]

It is hard to see how NSW or Victoria could reach 50,000 new cases per day. I suppose on a raw population numbers basis it is possible, but it would really take some doing!

Just corrected you on that statement.

(I am a native Victorian so I can do that ....)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Which they could have managed at least a little bit by extending people’s expiry dates by 12 months or allowing a discount for people who renewed when they obviously couldn’t travel. It’s not that hard to level out seasonal demand if you give it a bit of thought.

You can't extend passports as all of the info is encoded in the secure page and passport chip. You'd also need every other country in the world to recognise that extension even if it was possible...

Might be feasible for 5 year passports, but I have a vague recollection about some rule/law against going over 10 years.

 

[Seat0B]

You can't extend passports as all of the info is encoded in the secure page and passport chip. You'd also need every other country in the world to recognise that extension even if it was possible...

They could just send you a new one with a later expiry date. Surely that is less work than a full re-application.

Anyway, it’s a bit rich of DFAT to act like it’s a surprise that people who were banned from travel have let their passports lapse. Or worse still to take a tone that blames people for letting their passports lapse.

 

[antycbr]

The relevant documentation:

In order to avoid negating the benefits derived from the substantial investment of resources in issuing MRPs [Machine Readable Passport], it became necessary to urge States to refrain from attempting to extend the validity of these documents by manual means. In modern passport production systems, the only practical way to update an MRP is to issue a new one.

https://www.icao.int/Meetings/FALP/Documents/falp6_2010/FALP6_WP02_en.pdf