Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[SYD]

Based on current rates - Australia all done by end of November.
80% fully vaccinated at current rate:

NSW: 39 days - 08/10/2021
VIC: 60 - 29/10/2021
QLD: 81 - 19/11/2021
WA: 77 - 15/11/2021
SA: 88 - 26/11/2021
TAS: 73 - 11/11/2021
ACT: 44 - 13/10/2021
NT: 81 - 19/11/2021

In case it hasn’t been posted already (or elsewhere), the ABC reporting of progress and projections is pretty user friendly:

Tracking the vaccine: Half of Australians boosted with three doses

With children aged 5-11 joining the rollout on January 10, just over 94 per cent of the total population are now eligible for vaccination against COVID-19.

www.abc.net.au

 

[justinbrett]

Based on current rates - Australia all done by end of November.
80% fully vaccinated at current rate:

NSW: 39 days - 08/10/2021
VIC: 60 - 29/10/2021
QLD: 81 - 19/11/2021
WA: 77 - 15/11/2021
SA: 88 - 26/11/2021
TAS: 73 - 11/11/2021
ACT: 44 - 13/10/2021
NT: 81 - 19/11/2021

Where did you get these stats? They look very wrong. Covidlive is predicting QLD on 9th December.

 

[mviy]

assuming Pfizer has not been extended to up to 6 weeks and Astra Zeneca is being brought into 6 weeks)

As supply improves and eventually exceeds demand one would expect that the gap between Pfizer shots will be brought back down again. Having a second AZ much sooner than the 12 weeks makes a lot of sense in Sydney.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

In case it hasn’t been posted already (or elsewhere), the ABC reporting of progress and projections is pretty user friendly:

Tracking the vaccine: Half of Australians boosted with three doses

With children aged 5-11 joining the rollout on January 10, just over 94 per cent of the total population are now eligible for vaccination against COVID-19.

www.abc.net.au

Guardian's graphic is also easy

Covid Australia vaccine rollout tracker: total number of people and per cent vaccinated, daily vaccine doses and rate of progress

How does Australia’s coronavirus vaccine rollout and schedule compare with other countries, when will Australia be fully vaccinated and when will you be eligible to get your dose? We bring together the latest numbers on daily new Covid-19 cases, as well as stats and live data on total...

www.theguardian.com

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

As supply improves and eventually exceeds demand one would expect that the gap between Pfizer shots will be brought back down again. Having a second AZ much sooner than the 12 weeks makes a lot of sense in Sydney.

From my understanding, generally NSW second shots for Pfizer are booked at the same time as first shots or soon after, and I've seen an instance where they didn't have a second shot and it had to be procured elsewhere. Its difficult to change a second shot booking for Pfizer - use it or lose it........

 

[antycbr]

There's things to be worked through too like how much of an opportunity will they give those stuck overseas waiting to get home to get home before opening the floodgates to let others depart Australia?

I'm questioning how many are genuinely stuck now. Many places such as US and EU are living much more freely than we are here and I would think that moving from a country with endemic covid and no lockdown to one with endemic covid and the future prospect of lockdowns (as per Doherty) might not seem too attractive any more.

Overseas Australians who don't want to come back permanently will also be wanting confidence that the Australian Government won't stop them leaving again.

 

[jb747]

They look very wrong. Covidlive is predicting QLD on 9th December.

For the first person?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Hmmm... seems like there's more to work out before international travel can begin. As it currently stands a two-three week trip to UK/Europe and/or the USA and/or a stopover or transit en route is going to require at least 2-3 PCR tests. More if you want to visit more than one country. All at significant cost. Arriving into the UK from a green list country doesn't require full vaccination, but coming from amber countries those who are fully vaccinated have reduced quarantine requirements. The problem is that the UK gov website only recognises vaccination programs of the UK, EU (and select other European countries) and USA. No others.

For a family trip the costs are going to mount up pretty quickly

 

[mviy]

If you look at the ABC and Guardian predictions VIC reaching the targets is projected to be within about a day of the national average with SA, WA and the NT following within the next week or so and QLD well behind. If we don't wait for QLD probably they'll set a date where every other state will have reached 80%, but it's too early to set a date if the government remains committed to a vaccination percentage target.

 

[mviy]

Hmmm... seems like there's more to work out before international travel can begin. As it currently stands a two-three week trip to UK/Europe and/or the USA and/or a stopover or transit en route is going to require at least 2-3 PCR tests. More if you want to visit more than one country. All at significant cost. Arriving into the UK from a green list country doesn't require full vaccination

Visiting family in the UK I'm happy to stick to green countries to get there.

coming from amber countries those who are fully vaccinated have reduced quarantine requirements. The problem is that the UK gov website only recognises vaccination programs of the UK, EU (and select other European countries) and USA. No others.

Hopefully vaccination programs in Australia are recognised in the UK by the time we reach the 80% target.

For a family trip the costs are going to mount up pretty quickly

Well if kids haven't got vaccinated, a harsh reality is that perhaps families shouldn't be travelling, just adults at the end of this year and as kids get vaccinated into next year, then have travel open up for them in time for the Easter or Winter school holidays.

Some travel for adults is better than no one being able to travel.

The Australian government has been open about expecting international travel to be limited till well into next year.

 

[ketsuzei]

For the first person?

Queensland problems are for Queenslanders.

 

[ketsuzei]

The Australian government has been open about expecting international travel to be limited till well into next year.

It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. Without scale it won’t work.

 

[justinbrett]

Visiting family in the UK I'm happy to stick to green countries to get there.

Hopefully vaccination programs in Australia are recognised in the UK by the time we reach the 80% target.

Considering Australia used Pfizer & AZ, the same vaccines as UK, I dare say the minute our outbound travel restriction is removed we will be recognised.

But agreed, look at what Qantas has proposed (which was done in consultation with the government) - travel to the UK will either be direct or via Singapore. Both green list countries.

 

[antycbr]

The problem is that the UK gov website only recognises vaccination programs of the UK, EU (and select other European countries) and USA. No others.

Have a read about "The Border 5" and the "Five Nations Passport Group" which is an interoperability group between UK/US/CA/AU/NZ. They'll get it sorted as border controls and quarantine are interconnected.

Border Five - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Five Nations Passport Group - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[OATEK]

Hmmm... seems like there's more to work out before international travel can begin. As it currently stands a two-three week trip to UK/Europe and/or the USA and/or a stopover or transit en route is going to require at least 2-3 PCR tests. More if you want to visit more than one country. All at significant cost. Arriving into the UK from a green list country doesn't require full vaccination, but coming from amber countries those who are fully vaccinated have reduced quarantine requirements. The problem is that the UK gov website only recognises vaccination programs of the UK, EU (and select other European countries) and USA. No others.

For a family trip the costs are going to mount up pretty quickly

For so many of us, cost is not the issue, its separation from family. I know that if I can get a direct flight to LHR via DRW or even PER, then I can go straight to my daughter's house without quarantine. That is my plan.

 

[JB expat]

For so many of us, cost is not the issue, its separation from family. I know that if I can get a direct flight to LHR via DRW or even PER, then I can go straight to my daughter's house without quarantine. That is my plan.

Totally agree - our family's plan is that I go visit the USA to see my parents and sister as soon as I can do so without home quarantine requirement/3 month leave requirement. Husband & children will not travel with me. Happy to take whatever tests are required. The challenge for me will be if the USA covid situation gets to be such that Aus gives it a status that jeopardizes my ability to return home without home quarantine.

 

[Seat0B]

But hopefully we'll soon find the rates increase as supply of Pfizer improves and Moderna becomes available so hopefully we'll hit the 80% target sooner than that.

Setting a date will come, but not yet.

There's things to be worked through too like how much of an opportunity will they give those stuck overseas waiting to get home to get home before opening the floodgates to let others depart Australia?

The arrivals caps are meant to double back to what they were before when we reach 70%, but to clear a lot of the backlog we'll need much higher caps than that.

and honestly, as things stand now, there is totally no reason to have caps or hotel quarantine at all. People coming back to Australia will not materially add to the COVID count currently experienced here. To be sure of that, then make the arrivals be double-vaxxed and test negative before coming here.

 

[Seat0B]

Fantasizing about a return to travel for both business and pleasure, got me thinking about the duty of care placed on employers - esp in countries with safe workplace type laws. I wonder if companies will start to require that employees fly only on airlines with vaccine mandates for staff and passengers (or at least staff). While it may take a while, I think that capitalism will drive behavior in the direction I am hoping for. Yes, I'd prefer faster action by legislation, but if that doesn't happen, I think things will sort themselves out. There are way more people who want to mitigate the risk of catching covid than who are fighting for their right not to vaccinate. I know that vaccination is not perfection in terms of protection - but it is a risk mitigation factor.

My mind was running along a similar track over the weekend @JB expat and I posted some thoughts about employers and their WHS obligations in post #5678 in this thread:

The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

WA has come out and said that their vaccination rate of their indigenous community is under 10%. Great job WA…. They are citing massive resistance amongst communities because of very strong (and successful) anti vax campaign by certain religious groups…. In one instance a remote community...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Looks like the message is really getting home in the rest of the world: We'll get there .... maybe ... perhaps ....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432161478551932933

 

[oznflfan]

Looks like the message is really getting home in the rest of the world: We'll get there .... maybe ... perhaps ....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432161478551932933

Some random WA patriot at Bondi Icebergs 1st January 2022 New Years Day Pool Party.