Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Eastwick20]

Putting aside that we are all chewing at the bit to leave the country and many here on AFF have funds to absorb unknown costs that might arise I think even after the border opens, inbound tourism will remain mostly dead if a pre travel or on arrival Covid test is required.

Australia is along way from .. well everywhere and expensive, can you imagine saving for a dream holiday only to to be told 24 hours prior to departure that you cant go or on arrival in Australia that most of your holiday will be viewing a office block across the road from a Travelodge in quarantine because you tested positive

Most people wont or couldn't gamble that the thousands of $$$ they have spend on a trip of a life time could be lost at the stroke of a last minute positive test result.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

 

[Pushka]

Where did you get these stats? They look very wrong. Covidlive is predicting QLD on 9th December.

From here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432116044345143296

 

[justinbrett]

From here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432116044345143296

Is that a joint initiative of the Queensland and WA governments?

Seems very optimistic. Queensland would have to get to 80% single jab in 6 weeks - which is around 200K first jabs a week, and currently they're only doing 130K.

The ABC and covidlive dates are very different (but similar to each other)

 

[Pushka]

Is that a joint initiative of the Queensland and WA governments?

Seems very optimistic. Queensland would have to get to 80% single jab in 6 weeks - which is around 200K first jabs a week, and currently they're only doing 130K.

The ABC and covidlive dates are very different (but similar to each other)

I have no idea. I just saw the figures posted in a news website and got very excited

 

[justinbrett]

I have no idea. I just saw the figures posted in a news website and got very excited

I read their explaination - their assumption is when a state reaches 80% first jab, first jabs cease and then second jabs are delivered at the rate of first and second jabs combined.

Ie, if QLD are jabbing 130K first and 130K second, once they get to 80% single, second jabs get delivered at 260K.

Which is just a terrible assumption, for one, first jabs won't stop, they might go as high as 95%, second, second jabs can only be delivered within the timelines of the first jabs, you can't deliver them twice as fast as the first.

I think the accurate model is use the first jab prediction and then add the timeframe for Pfizer + AZ. About 6 weeks on average. This is what NSW are doing (though they actually have the 2nd jab booking dates).

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Much as WA is getting a bad rap some other states are dragging their feet!

 

[oznflfan]

Much as WA is getting a bad rap some other states are dragging their feet!
View attachment 256791

I'm amongst these, no lockdowns, no urgency. Need either A) open up the country, B) drop a COVID bomb, of C) introduce vaccine passport requirements, otherwise they'll all drag their feet.

 

[jakeseven7]

Looks like the message is really getting home in the rest of the world: We'll get there .... maybe ... perhaps ....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432161478551932933

A lot of ‘risk factor’ looking people in that shot too…. Wow…. Need to get in shape!

 

[antycbr]

The questions about the incompatibility of Covid-zero and international travel are now starting to be asked... McGowan is avoiding the answer.

Asked if he would prevent Western Australia from reopening with the rest of the country Mr McGowan said he “hadn’t considered that”.

“Obviously it would be tightly managed and [international travel under Phase C] would only go to certain countries hopefully that are largely COVID-free, but again, these are issues for December or January, right now we are still in August,” he said. - not sure which countries will "hopefully" be Covid free by the end of the year. Maybe NZ? I doubt the feds will allow a bubble this time around and NZ didn't seem too keen but who knows what's going on with their strategy.

Premier won’t say whether WA will opt out of international travel once Australia reopens

While Mark McGowan has repeatedly said his aim is to keep COVID out of WA until Phase D, the Commonwealth has control of international arrivals and wants to resume overseas travel once vaccination rates hit 80 per cent in Phase C.

www.smh.com.au

 

[MooTime]

The questions about the incompatibility of Covid-zero and international travel are now starting to be asked... McGowan is avoiding the answer.

Asked if he would prevent Western Australia from reopening with the rest of the country Mr McGowan said he “hadn’t considered that”.

“Obviously it would be tightly managed and [international travel under Phase C] would only go to certain countries hopefully that are largely COVID-free, but again, these are issues for December or January, right now we are still in August,” he said. - not sure which countries will "hopefully" be Covid free by the end of the year. Maybe NZ? I doubt the feds will allow a bubble this time around and NZ didn't seem too keen but who knows what's going on with their strategy.

haha so funny & silly isn't it...'hadn't considered that', on my goodness, I'm sure he's planning other gov issues into 2022, but not considered opening the state in Dec 2021.

Somebody should whisper in his ear that NO country on the planet will be covid zero in 2022, even now there isn't, wake up dodo!!

Gee I don't wish harm on anyone, by I'd love an outbreak over there to rattle some minds.
The mind boggles.

 

[Pushka]

haha so funny & silly isn't it...'hadn't considered that', on my goodness, I'm sure he's planning other gov issues into 2022, but not considered opening the state in Dec 2021.

Somebody should whisper in his ear that NO country on the planet will be covid zero in 2022, even now there isn't, wake up dodo!!

Gee I don't wish harm on anyone, by I'd love an outbreak over there to rattle some minds.
The mind boggles.

I suspect he thought he may be able to hold Australia to ransom and that other states wouldn’t open up to international if he didn’t.

 

[justinbrett]

haha so funny & silly isn't it...'hadn't considered that', on my goodness, I'm sure he's planning other gov issues into 2022, but not considered opening the state in Dec 2021.

Somebody should whisper in his ear that NO country on the planet will be covid zero in 2022, even now there isn't, wake up dodo!!

Gee I don't wish harm on anyone, by I'd love an outbreak over there to rattle some minds.
The mind boggles.

He's happy to blame the PM for not planning ahead when it suits him

I suspect he thought he may be able to hold Australia to ransom and that other states wouldn’t open up to international if he didn’t.

There's no reason why they could do this, only if the PM lets him - international borders are clearly a matter for the commonwealth. WA could potentially stop arrivals in to their own state but not others.

 

[MooTime]

I suspect he thought he may be able to hold Australia to ransom and that other states wouldn’t open up to international if he didn’t.

yeah ok, wishful thinking maybe.

I did read he said, he's paying for other states lockdown, really he thinks this? Does he realise we're heading for a Trillion $$ debt, ah I don't know.

apologies for slight political stance. realised after posted.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

1164 in sydney with 4 being from overseas .... sigh at closed borders to double vacc'd people

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW Premier makes mention of possibility of allowing overseas Aussies as international arrivals at 80% double dose.

 

[mviy]

NSW Premier makes mention of possibility of allowing international arrivals at 80% double dose.

Well it would make sense to have at least a week or two to try to clear some of the backlog of those stranded overseas as much as many of us trapped here in Australia would like to depart ASAP.

 

[ayushamity]

NSW Premier makes mention of possibility of allowing overseas Aussies as international arrivals at 80% double dose.

Ye she said 'once we reach 80%, there is no reason to not allow international travel back in'. She even went with the emotive 'Imagine if we could allow all Australians back home by Christmas and NSW is well positioned to do that by the end of the year'.

Whos with me for GB for PM!!

Post automatically merged: Aug 31, 2021

And I reckon NSW will easily smash through the 80% barrier as NSW is easily the most multicultural state with overseas links.

 

[burmans]

PM has just confirmed international travel with home quarantine will be allowed at 80%

Trying to source more details.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

PM has just confirmed international travel with home quarantine will be allowed at 80%

Awesome!
do you have a link? love to read it / see it