Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[oz_mark]

It’s not, we are going to have to live with it unfortunately and accept a baseline level of cases that our healthcare system can manage (so we dont end up like UK, US, Italy, Spain etc where health care systems are overloaded).

So corona will still be alive and kicking when travel is re-allowed is my point, but at manageable levels.

The main problem is going to be if you get caught up in a flare-up somewhere, and then you may find your self stranded, or quarantined, or something for a period of time. Travel may be allowed, but people will need to be more aware of the risks associated with it.

 

[jakeseven7]

The main problem is going to be if you get caught up in a flare-up somewhere, and then you may find your self stranded, or quarantined, or something for a period of time. Travel may be allowed, but people will need to be more aware of the risks associated with it.

Exactly, there will be risk and possibly lack of travel insurance coverage too for some places.

But we have to get on with life, this isn’t world ending. It’s pretty cough for the vulnerable cohorts though, they will need to be very careful for a while...

 

[cove]

Yes getting an issue in California could be a major problem with no medical insurance and no modest costing accommodation for family during hospitalization for a few weeks. This could make a trip to Disneyland an incredible financial nightmare. Travel insurance won’t cover you next year as the policies will change.

 

[drron]

Well we are finding out who are the optimists and who the pessimists are with this thread.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well we are finding out who are the optimists and who the pessimists are with this thread.

And the realists too

 

[PJF]

Hows this work... Booked on QF to fly to Bali out of Melbourne on 5/06 R/T 7/06 DSC run. Email saying first two domestic legs canceled and no alternate flight to get to Melbourne in time to catch (? if still departing). Bali leg not canceled and still being sold on the QF website. Do they really think that the bans on international travel will be lifted by then by either Australia or Indonesia for that matter. My impression they do not want to cancel Bali flight as then you can ask for a refund and they would prefer you put it in credit.

 

[Dr Ralph]

OS travel will only realistically be safe when a vaccine becomes available.

"If" is the correct word here.

 

[CityRail]

"If" is the correct word here.

That's right. Despite there has been efforts to test a vaccine, whether a vaccine against coronavirus is effective remains an unknown.
I have read something in ABC saying that the consensus of the industry is that the international travel ban will last for 3 - 5 months, whilst I am speculating that the international travel will first become available after Term 3 starts with travellers require to quarantine upon return until after the commencement of Term 4 of schools.

 

[burmans]

NZ is international isn't it? 3-4 months then.

 

[jase05]

Brendan Murphy on Foxtel right now answering senate questions.

Wouldn’t completely rule out international travel this year.

Mentioned that the arrangement with NZ is a possibility. Also, when queried, said that depending on the international situation, they could consider allowing travel provided that returned travellers are quarantined.

 

[N860CR]

I think we need to stop focusing on a vaccine and start focusing on testing. If we can get a reliable test sorted out, then you can practically have people return from overseas, test and then carry on. Or not carry on quite the same if they’ve got the bug

 

[CaptJCool]

Brendan Murphy on Foxtel right now answering senate questions.

Wouldn’t completely rule out international travel this year.

Mentioned that the arrangement with NZ is a possibility. Also, when queried, said that depending on the international situation, they could consider allowing travel provided that returned travellers are quarantined.

Especially aged care staff!

We don’t want anymore Newmarch’s nor Dorothy scenarios.

The other famous Dorothy found the Wizard of Oz but that while transforming lives cannot save lives

 

[CityRail]

Well, looks like the CMO has hinted when the international travel may be able to resume:

Borders to be shut for at least four more months: chief medical officer
By Dana McCauley
The nation's Chief Medical Officer says Australians should not expect international travel to resume for at least three to four months, saying the risk of importing coronavirus from overseas is too great.
Professor Brendan Murphy told a Senate inquiry into Australia's response to the COVID-19 pandemic that while it was "very hard to put a timeline on anything at the moment", opening borders would be the last stage of any easing of restrictions.
Professor Brendan Murphy appearing at the Senate inquiry on Thursday.CREDIT:ALEX ELLINGHAUSEN
"I wouldn't be envisaging any material changes to border measures in that three to four months," he said.
"The international situation at the moment is such that any relaxation of border measures would be very risky and we just recommended to the national cabinet only a few days ago that we continue the very restrictive bans on people, basically Australians leaving the country, unless there are exceptional circumstances, or anyone except Australian citizens coming back, and then only when they are formally quarantined.
"They are extraordinary measures but the international spread of this virus is huge including to some countries where we know they're not ascertaining cases very well, including in our region."
Professor Murphy said Australia's status as an island nation had allowed it to implement border restrictions "more effectively than other countries" and that "our colleagues in the United States and the United Kingdom regret that they didn't do the same."
"We knew that the greatest risk of uncontrolled transmission was from imported cases," he told a Senate committee hearing into Australia's response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
"We had a huge amount of traffic from China, a very large number of flights."
Professor Murphy also rejected claims that the coronavirus may be spreading in Australia undetected, saying health authorities had expanded testing criteria weeks ago and the results showed it was "very unlikely" widespread community transmission was happening.
"In most jurisdictions, we are testing every single person who has acute respiratory illness," he said. "We would have found evidence of this."
This distinguished Australia from other countries, including in Europe where the coronavirus had spread through "potentially thousands" of people who did not realise they were infected during the winter cold and flu season.
Professor Murphy said he still believed the fatality rate of COVID-19 was about 1 per cent, despite higher figures overseas, saying this was due to low levels of testing meaning "they're not ascertaining cases".
He said Australia was aiming to emulate Taiwan's success in keeping infection numbers low through "aggressive contact tracing and isolation", but warned that there was always a risk of another outbreak.
"We have to be very aware that while we have only had seven cases in the last 24 hours, there is a permanent risk of further cases," Professor Murphy said.
"This is a highly infectious virus and it can take off fairly quickly."

So as widely expected, we might see international travel resume by about September/October time is going to be quite realistic, at least to some countries.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think we need to stop focusing on a vaccine and start focusing on testing. If we can get a reliable test sorted out, then you can practically have people return from overseas, test and then carry on. Or not carry on quite the same if they’ve got the bug

I doubt that tests will ever be 100% accurate. If so not having quarantine would be risky in a country where CV19 has been eradicated.


Having said that I would believe that all of the below are being looked at:

• More accurate testing
• More available testing
• More immediate test results (for people who have it, rather than have had it such as the antibody test)
• Better treatments, and in particular truly effective treatments which we do not yet have - Effective treatments means that the risk of travelling for the traveller becomes a lot less.
• Vaccines.

If CV19 is proven to impart long-term immunity then having people exposed by going overseas would be good for the country. However that still means the individual would take the risk of medical costs, unpleasant illness all the way up to severe lung damage or even death. Less risk for the young and fit, but even the young and fit have had and will have adverse outcomes.

International travel I would see as eventually being permitted with a quarantine on re-entry.

• More complicated if the country you wish to go to also has a 14 Quarantine (though this could be relaxed for direct flights from CV19 free NZ and Australia)
• Obviously not so viable for short trips
• Travelling for compassionate reason

I could even see that with a quarantine on entry that you could resume:

• Overseas students - Why not if they are coming for a course that may take 1 to 4 years to complete
• Migrants
• Business travellers - more viable if they are coming for longer projects

The issue too is not just Australia allowing international travel, but that other countries or countries need to allow it too.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well, looks like the CMO has hinted when the international travel may be able to resume:



So as widely expected, we might see international travel resume by about September/October time is going to be quite realistic, at least to some countries.

If you mean to countries that have active CV19 then I would only see it as only quite realistic if quarantine on re-entry is required unless a 100% effective test is developed.. And those countries may require it on entry as well. So two lots of 14 days. If Australia has eradicated CV19 then those countries may possibly wave the quarantine for direct flights from Australia.

I would also anticipate that when international is resumed that it will be very limited and very controlled. If that all goes ok then maybe progressive opening up of who could travel, but still strictly controlled.

 

[CityRail]

Australia likely to reopen borders first to New Zealand, PM says
By Max Koslowski
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said New Zealand would likely be the first country to which Australia reopens its borders as it relaxed restrictions imposed to stop the spread of COVID-19.
The Prime Minister said he had already had discussions with New Zealand leader Jacinda Ardern about reopening borders.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he had already discussed reopening borders with his New Zealand counterpart Jacinda Ardern
"I would have thought New Zealand would be the obvious candidate [for border openings] and that's the nature of discussions we've had," Mr Morrison said.
"That is an area we can look potentially favourably on provided all the other arrangements are in place regarding public safety. That's something we'll work through patiently."
Mr Morrison said the government will favour "low risk, high value" activities when relaxing social distancing measures. "My priorities are to get kids back to school and get people back to work," he said.
Australia's Chief Medical Officer, Professor Brendan Murphy, has told a Senate inquiry today that international borders are unlikely to be reopened for three to four months.

And it appears that should we re-open our borders, the first country to open will definitely be New Zeland.

Hopefully Hong Kong and Taiwan will follow soon so that we will be able to visit our family in Hong Kong shortly.

Australia to ‘reconnect’ with NZ first

New Zealand will “undoubtedly” be the first country Australia “reconnects” with, Scott Morrison says, provided the government is confident the public’s safety will not be put at risk.

The Prime Minister did not put a timeline on when travel between the two nations would restart but said it was something being worked through patiently.

Mr Morrison did not offer a view is to whether the NRL could restart at the end of May, saying it would depend on health advice at the time.

He also said it was a matter for the NSW government, not the commonwealth.

“What we are seeking to do is focus on those activities that are more low-health-risk and more high-economic-value. My priorities are to get kids back to school, to get people back to work,” Mr Morrison said.

“In terms of the broader social restrictions that are overseen by the states, I think there is a reasonable expectation from the public - based on the tremendous patience and discipline that they’ve shown - that they will get some relief on those fronts as well. I welcome, for example, the decision taken by the Queensland government overnight in regards to funerals (allowing 20 people to attend instead of 10).”

So we might see that NZ maybe an exception to the 3 - 4 months when the international borders will reopen.

 

[dajop]

When we say quarantine, there are several options for the 14 days:
1) In dedicated quarantine facility
2) In supervised hotel rooms
3) At your own home or hotel of your choice, with or without electronic tag.

Assumedly, going forward this will all be at the traveller expense. I'd be happy with #3 and pay to hire electronic tag for 2 weeks if necessary to guarantee compliance. #1 and #2 are going to be expensive options, thus will really dissuade international travel (maybe a good thing?).

I have "skin in the game" on this one as someone who "commutes" regularly between Singapore (where I live) and Australia (where extended family live), with an average off 7 trips a year over the last 11 years. It may ultimately end up forcing us to make that decision to move back and try and find something else to do in Australia. But I'm not the only one in this situation, my partners' boss lives/works in Singapore but his wife and kids moved back to Australia for final years of high school, another former colleague works there but husband is based in Queensland (in the army). So lots of people are going to have to face some difficult decisions.

With in the last 20 years, the global workforce becoming highly mobile, there are reportedly 20,000+ Australians working in Singapore (and probably many Singaporeans living or working in Australia), not to mention other countries including Thailand, China, Hong Kong, UK, USA, etc , many retaining strong linkages to "home", although obviously the further you get, the less frequent the travel. Whilst everyone is focused on international "holiday" travel, I think this global workforce concept is also going to take a hammering and need some thought from our policy makers as well, and perhaps for companies to take a more lenient approach to remote working if they want to retain talent.

And, lastly, not relevant to most on AFF, whilst I can happily deal with no international travel if I was based in Australia, it will drive me insane in the little red dot of Singapore, in an area that's slightly smaller than suburban Canberra! There's one for you Canberrans, no travel past Banks to the south, the Murrumbidgee to the west, the NSW border to the north and Majura Parkway to the east.

 

[CaptJCool]

And, lastly, not relevant to most on AFF, whilst I can happily deal with no international travel if I was based in Australia, it will drive me insane in the little red dot of Singapore, in an area that's slightly smaller than suburban Canberra! There's one for you Canberrans, no travel past Banks to the south, the Murrumbidgee to the west, the NSW border to the north and Majura Parkway to the east.

I guess there’s no landing strips on the various small “islands” in SQ Harbour.... sighs let alone elsewhere in the ACT

 

[jb747]

I guess there’s no landing strips on the various small “islands” in SQ Harbour.... sighs let alone elsewhere in the ACT

Actually there is at least one. Look up Sudong Island.

 

[dajop]

Actually there is at least one. Look up Sudong Island.

Yes, quite visible often if flying in from the west/north west and landing from the south.