Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[flyer89]

Actually there is at least one. Look up Sudong Island.

I’m surprised captain fantastic didn’t claim he was about to sideslip it into that runway. Ok, I’m being cheeky now...

 

[CaptJCool]

Actually there is at least one. Look up Sudong Island.

Learn something new everyday

The Live firing zone is not open to civilians.... holiday idea shot to pieces....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Learn something new everyday

The Live firing zone is not open to civilians.... holiday idea shot to pieces....

Speaking of live firing zones. On doing the North Coast 500 in Scotland in 2018 on one of our days walks it was front row seats to a coastal live firing range in progress.

It was a lovely piece of coast with massive sand dunes. But you kept hearing loud booms. On walking up the hill one spotted the firing observation post and you could get within a few hundred metres of it. At the gate there were massive old shells.

If you looked out to sea there was a frigate on the horizon and so it looked quite small. You could hear the boom and after a while we spotted a islet down the coast that they were aiming at. Some near misses would see water splashes. It was amazing how accurate they were considering how far away the target was from the ship, and no doubt the ship would have been subject to some sea motion.

 

[CityRail]

When we say quarantine, there are several options for the 14 days:
1) In dedicated quarantine facility
2) In supervised hotel rooms
3) At your own home or hotel of your choice, with or without electronic tag.

I would say Australian Government should seriously consider option 3 for 14 days in the near future.

In order to open domestic travel, you need to have hotels available for domestic travellers, whilst occupying some of them for a prolonged period of time for returned travellers will not help with boosting interstate travellers, I think this should happen within the next 21 days so that we can free up some hotel spaces for interstate guests.

 

[Woodie]

I would say Australian Government should seriously consider option 3 for 14 days in the near future.

If the government did require returning travelers to quarantine for 14 days, you can bet your bottom dollar option 3 wouldn't be an option, and it shouldn't be in my opinion. How many people would you come into contact with from disembarking the plane to home?

You can bet you'll be herded into a bus & taken to a hotel for 14 days at your expense. That will be a requirement if you choose to leave this country.

 

[tgh]

Future Au Entry Quarantine requirements must parallel the development of better testing options.
Atm tests are so hit and miss that for any level of border opening we may as well forget quarantine and let the rest of the infected world infect us.
Development of bulletproof testing could open up quite liberal au entry quarantine.. it all depends.
A cash strapped Au government will not be subsidising quarantine, it will likely be a user funded private operation and must be as tight as the proverbial piscine anus

 

[Rembrandt]

Unfortunately, I can foresee international travel being hampered for at least a year. The federal government will probably force inbound people (NZ may be exempt) to quarantine in a hotel for two weeks before being allowed into the community. This will of course put Aussies off traveling overseas.

The problem we have in Australia is that we haven't been exposed to the virus like in the US and EU. So whilst there may be a heard immunity in certain parts of the world later this year we may be very vulnerable and have to have stritct border control measures until a vaccine is available. I suppose it's the trade off for not having many thousands of dead. I'm probably wrong with this logic and I'm sure someone will correct me.

 

[Pushka]

Unfortunately, I can foresee international travel being hampered for at least a year. The federal government will probably force inbound people (NZ may be exempt) to quarantine in a hotel for two weeks before being allowed into the community. This will of course put Aussies off traveling overseas.

The problem we have in Australia is that we haven't been exposed to the virus like in the US and EU. So whilst there may be a heard immunity in certain parts of the world later this year we may be very vulnerable and have to have stritct border control measures until a vaccine is available. I suppose it's the trade off for not having many thousands of dead. I'm probably wrong with this logic and I'm sure someone will correct me.

Unless they can repurpose an existing vaccine (eg BCG, Measles etc etc) there won't be a vaccine for years. So anything we put in place must be a management issue for the long term.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

. So whilst there may be a heard immunity in certain parts of the world later this year

Herd immunity does not work that quickly. Without a vaccine it would probably take multiple waves of CV 19 over many years.

Just look at the carnage in NY city where the latest antibody test given to a sample of 3000 people suggests that 1 in 8 may have been infected. to have been infected. Herd immunity would require say 4 in 8 to 6 in 8 to be infected. With a death toll now of 20,861 from a population of 19.5 million, that is another 80 to 130,000 deaths to reach herd immunity.

Those deaths (the 20,081) are only the deaths in hospitals and aged care. Governor Cuomo stated yesterday that the true death toll would be higher as 1/ it does not include in-home deaths and 2/ CV19 killed people before any testing was actually being done. Australia has 25% more people than New York State.


Also note that herd immunity means that the bulk of the population must have been infected. For a very contagious virus like Covid 19 this may need to be 50 to 70% or more of a population.

So for Australia if say the mortality rate per infection is say 0.5% then for the Australian population of 25 million that is in terms of deaths 125,000 to 175,000 people. At that point if herd immunity is gained it just means that you start to have less deaths and not no deaths.
Apart from the dead many will have ongoing health issues due to lung damage.

Even if you travel to a country that has herd immunity it does not mean that a traveller will not catch CV 19, just that they are less likely to do so.





“Herd immunity is not this magical number where once you reach that point nobody else gets infected,” Crotty says. “It would no longer be a full-blown epidemic once you get to herd immunity, [but] the virus would still spread, it would still infect people, it would still kill people. It would just be a less common event.”

Herd immunity alone won’t stop COVID-19. Here’s why.

Trying to achieve herd immunity without a vaccine’s help would entail lifting social distancing restrictions on businesses and gatherings so the disease could spread among young, healthy people.

www.popsci.com

What Herd Immunity Means for COVID-19

Herd immunity refers to a buildup of immunity in a population due to natural immunity or the administration of vaccines.

www.healthline.com

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Unless they can repurpose an existing vaccine (eg BCG, Measles etc etc) there won't be a vaccine for years.

This would require that the first batch of vaccines (I believe this be some 70+ candidates around the world) , some of which have now started the first round of human trials, to all fail. Many of the current candidates do not require re-purposing of an existing vaccine.

They may of course all fail, and certainly not all could or would succeed, as developing a vaccine is known to be a very difficult task.

If some do, then the vaccine or vaccines are all at least 12-18 months away going by what most experts indicate would be the minimum time.

COVID-19 vaccine: Who is starting human trials and how many candidate vaccines are under way

***

www.haaretz.com

Coronavirus: First patients injected in UK vaccine trial

The first two people have been injected as part of a UK study of a Covid-19 vaccine.

www.bbc.com

 

[dajop]

If the government did require returning travelers to quarantine for 14 days, you can bet your bottom dollar option 3 wouldn't be an option, and it shouldn't be in my opinion. How many people would you come into contact with from disembarking the plane to home?

You can bet you'll be herded into a bus & taken to a hotel for 14 days at your expense. That will be a requirement if you choose to leave this country.

It's not impossible to have scenarios where you have the option to pay for special pre-paid transport (perhaps vehicles with perspex covers around the driver) to your home + tracking bracelet hire for two weeks. I guess though the risk of people visiting you remains.

 

[Woodie]

It's not impossible to have scenarios where you have the option to pay for special pre-paid transport (perhaps vehicles with perspex covers around the driver) to your home + tracking bracelet hire for two weeks. I guess though the risk of people visiting you remains.

All true, we live 4 hrs from the nearest international airport, so special transport would be expensive if possible.
We have flights booked to Europe in September & I certainly wouldn't want to be forced into quarantine, so I'm hoping my flights get cancelled.

 

[CaptJCool]

This would require that the first batch of vaccines (I believe this be some 70+ candidates around the world) , some of which have now started the first round of human trials, to all fail. Many of the current candidates do not require re-purposing of an existing vaccine.

They may of course all fail, and certainly not all could or would succeed, as developing a vaccine is known to be a very difficult task.

As Edison may have said “I know 1,000 things that don’t work....”

Post automatically merged: Apr 24, 2020

It's not impossible to have scenarios where you have the option to pay for special pre-paid transport (perhaps vehicles with perspex covers around the driver) to your home + tracking bracelet hire for two weeks. I guess though the risk of people visiting you remains.

Bring on an “Uber self-driving car”

 

[dajop]

All true, we live 4 hrs from the nearest international airport, so special transport would be expensive if possible.
We have flights booked to Europe in September & I certainly wouldn't want to be forced into quarantine, so I'm hoping my flights get cancelled.

I figured if cost of the accommodation is, say $125/night + meals, that's $1750, On Uber, four hours is about $500. Let's double that, say, $1k. That's still cheaper than 14 nights!

 

[CityRail]

Australia, New Zealand could reopen borders for 'travel bubble'

A trans-Tasman bubble could be the first step in restarting overseas travel, with Singapore possibly next on the list.

www.executivetraveller.com

According to Executive Traveller, it is reportedly that NZ is in negotiations with Singapore to open its borders later as well. I wonder whether other successful countries such as Hong Kong should be involved so that we can go back to our own country to enjoy food and family accompany.

 

[dajop]

Australia, New Zealand could reopen borders for 'travel bubble'

A trans-Tasman bubble could be the first step in restarting overseas travel, with Singapore possibly next on the list.

www.executivetraveller.com

According to Executive Traveller, it is reportedly that NZ is in negotiations with Singapore to open its borders later as well. I wonder whether other successful countries such as Hong Kong should be involved so that we can go back to our own country to enjoy food and family accompany.

As much as personally I'd love them to be included (it would make my life a whole stack simpler) I can't see it happening in a hurry. Firstly, whilst the "community" spread is very low in SG (hovering around 10-20/day) they have to get their dormitory situation under control before AU or NZ should consider opening the borders. But more importantly, in the longer term SG needs foreign workers to keep anything vaguely similar to current living standards, this includes Bangladeshi/Indian/Sri Lankan/Nepali/Chinese construction workers, Chinese bus drivers, Malaysian workers (commuters) across all sectors, Filipino and Indonesian domestic helpers and Filipino hospitality workers and nurses. Longer term the country will be screwed if they can't find a way to continue to import workers for low level jobs, and that may mean AU/NZ have to keep the borders closed. Although quarantine on arrival, for all but the Malaysian commuters, is definitely achievable.

 

[trooper]

Speaking of live firing zones. On doing the North Coast 500 in Scotland in 2018 on one of our days walks it was front row seats to a coastal live firing range in progress.

It was a lovely piece of coast with massive sand dunes. But you kept hearing loud booms. On walking up the hill one spotted the firing observation post and you could get within a few hundred metres of it. At the gate there were massive old shells.

If you looked out to sea there was a frigate on the horizon and so it looked quite small. You could hear the boom and after a while we spotted a islet down the coast that they were aiming at. Some near misses would see water splashes. It was amazing how accurate they were considering how far away the target was from the ship, and no doubt the ship would have been subject to some sea motion.

The horizon was probably about 10-11 kilometres given where you were.... so the range they were firing at was probably a bit less? That is well within the range of the RN's 4.5" Mk 8 gun (which equips most (all?) of the frigates and destroyers) especially given a stationary target. Maximum range is meant to be over 20 km.... and the guns are gyro-stabilised so ship movement isn't a concern.... Bloody impressive nonetheless! Even more impressive? In WW2 HMS Warspite landed a 15" shell on the Italian battleship Giulio Cesare - while both ships were under way - at a range of 26,000 yards... or 24 km... (!!) I'll show myself out now LOL...

 

[CityRail]

As much as personally I'd love them to be included (it would make my life a whole stack simpler) I can't see it happening in a hurry. Firstly, whilst the "community" spread is very low in SG (hovering around 10-20/day) they have to get their dormitory situation under control before AU or NZ should consider opening the borders. But more importantly, in the longer term SG needs foreign workers to keep anything vaguely similar to current living standards, this includes Bangladeshi/Indian/Sri Lankan/Nepali/Chinese construction workers, Chinese bus drivers, Malaysian workers (commuters) across all sectors, Filipino and Indonesian domestic helpers and Filipino hospitality workers and nurses. Longer term the country will be screwed if they can't find a way to continue to import workers for low level jobs, and that may mean AU/NZ have to keep the borders closed. Although quarantine on arrival, for all but the Malaysian commuters, is definitely achievable.

I agree. As long as the foreign workers dorm is not being resolved, I don't think we should not open the border with Singapore, but rather with Hong Kong will be more realistic.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The horizon was probably about 10-11 kilometres given where you were.... so the range they were firing at was probably a bit less?

More, as the frigate was basically straight out from us, and the observation station, and the target was along the coast somewhat. The frigate was underway and kept firing off and on for well over an hour.

It was certainly both impressive and interesting to watch. And it also showed yet again that some of the most interesting travel moments are the completely unexpected ones that just happen.

 

[dajop]

but rather with Hong Kong will be more realistic.

What are Hong Kong doing about their "commuters" from the mainland? That's another factor as well. I can see Taiwan being relatively watertight, but singling them out may not be in our best interests, from an export perspective.

I can see the potential for SW Pacific, who knows it mightn't be too long before Fiji is overtaken by the Bali crowd