Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Seat0B

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I get that and I feel pretty similar to you. Unfortunately the flip side is that they could have unrestricted departure from Australia and a gazillion holiday makers offshore trying to return lodging action via the UN to come home
I just feel like at this point of time, there are more alternatives on the spectrum than the two simplistic end points of "no one leaves at all except a very few who pass the exemption to leave Australia test" and "sure let's just let everyone leave for holidays, no worries". It honestly is not an either/or situation, despite the reality that this is how the Government chooses to portray it.

It is way past time for the Government to look at more intelligent ways of managing returning Australians than the blunt instrument of enforced HQ for all regardless of situation eg a person coming in from India should probably be in HQ. One coming in from Singapore should really not be in HQ, and should not waste the HQ place that could be made available to a person with a higher need. A fully vaccinated person with a provable provenance does not really need HQ.

And there should be many more options (like home quarantine, or additional hotel places or more camps like Howard Springs) so that the caps can be raised. This in turn reduces pressure on returns and thus allows more people to travel outbound for important family matters that don;t meet the current exemption for end of life. Although even there, results in gaining an exemption seem pretty arbitrary according to variable results reported in the media and on this forum.

I am fine with outright tourism being constrained for a little longer until the vaccines bite.
 

Seat0B

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On ya Gladys!! I am sooooo thankful I live in NSW with a sane premier. Imagine living in WA or QLD.....'shudders'...
Yes! Gladys for PM!

Also I am glad to live in ACT, which has very sensibly recognised that we are realistically just an island in NSW and has followed along pretty closely with Gladys's decisions (mostly).
 

jakeseven7

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Yes! Gladys for PM!

Also I am glad to live in ACT, which has very sensibly recognised that we are realistically just an island in NSW and has followed along pretty closely with Gladys's decisions (mostly).

Isn't Gladys your premier too?

According to the QLD CHO and Premier you don't exist remember ;)
 
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oznflfan

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On ya Gladys!! I am sooooo thankful I live in NSW with a sane premier. Imagine living in WA or QLD.....'shudders'...
Watched Greg Hunt's press conference on YouTube last night, and he was asked on Glady's comments.

To his credit he stated:

1) I never said we would not open borders even if we were fully vaccinated.
2) I said if we were fully vaccinated 'right now' we could not open borders given the amount of virus around the world.
3) Once Australia is fully vaccinated*, or everyone that wants a vaccine has had a vaccine, and the virus level around the world has reduced by way of global vaccination, we could progressively open borders.

*This may be achieved by 31/3/2022 (my thoughts/hopes, not Greg Hunt's statement).

This actually does give me some confidence in travel for next year. On progressively definition, may be rolling cases per million across all countries + combined with vaccination rates. Acknowledge we aren't going anywhere unless vaccinated.
 

Matt_01

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Unfortunately the flip side is that they could have unrestricted departure from Australia and a gazillion holiday makers offshore trying to return lodging action via the UN to come home
I should have covered return as well and understand that it is a risk I would have to weigh up. I have a started booking a OW rewards in F with the likes of JL, BA and CX will these happen who knows. I would also suggest that if I was allowed to leave AU and there was a risk that I could get stranded overseas I would reassess this closer to the time. If I was allowed to travel and I thought there maybe a serious risk of not been able to return it is likely that I would not travel on the reward bookings.

Sure OWE status has some perks however as PAX on rewards even in F and without primary status in the other carrier programs I would suspect my chances of being bumped would be on the higher side. If I still wanted to travel, I may attempt to reduce the risk and change to QF as a revenue J PAX in the hope that a combination of revenue J and P1 may decrease the chance of being bumped but would still not consider this to be foolproof and guaranteed return as planned.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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Watched Greg Hunt's press conference on YouTube last night, and he was asked on Glady's comments.

To his credit he stated:

1) I never said we would not open borders even if we were fully vaccinated.
2) I said if we were fully vaccinated 'right now' we could not open borders given the amount of virus around the world.
3) Once Australia is fully vaccinated*, or everyone that wants a vaccine has had a vaccine, and the virus level around the world has reduced by way of global vaccination, we could progressively open borders.

*This may be achieved by 31/3/2022 (my thoughts/hopes, not Greg Hunt's statement).

This actually does give me some confidence in travel for next year. On progressively definition, may be rolling cases per million across all countries + combined with vaccination rates. Acknowledge we aren't going anywhere unless vaccinated.
An interesting gap is if virus levels don't come down, to a reasonable level ???, because of the vaccine
 

mviy

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Well there's now the potential for a huge fine and even jail time if one uses NZ as a loophole to get around the ban.

I suspect there will be a flood of exemption requests from people who have been vaccinated who feel it's safe for them to travel once that has happened. I'll probably apply towards the end of the year if I've been vaccinated and the borders are still shut.

I'm hoping travel will be open for me to go in December 2021.
 

oznflfan

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An interesting gap is if virus levels don't come down, to a reasonable level ???, because of the vaccine
Correct, and we don't know the 'toleration (is this a word) levels' planned.
 

Pom-DownUnder

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To his credit he stated:

1) I never said we would not open borders even if we were fully vaccinated.
2) I said if we were fully vaccinated 'right now' we could not open borders given the amount of virus around the world.
Once Aussies are vaccinated i could give two )(#*$@ if the rest of the world is poxxed as an 1800's sailor, open the bloody borders at that point, why try and keep out something that we will at that point all be vaccinated against, Gladys is spot on, this guy is an absolute moral coward
 

mviy

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The thing is that to open the borders again the Feds will need the state's co-operation. A carrot and stick approach could well be ending subsidies to all of the affected industries: airlines, tourism etc. and telling the state governments our health advice is we can safely open up, if you want these industries to survive you need to co-operate with us to make that happen starting in (they would obviously need to give the states some warning e.g. in national cabinet).
 

roogirl

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And right on cue WA jumps in


Maybe the people’s republic of sydney will be declared?!
 

MEL_Traveller

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The thing is that to open the borders again the Feds will need the state's co-operation. A carrot and stick approach could well be ending subsidies to all of the affected industries: airlines, tourism etc. and telling the state governments our health advice is we can safely open up, if you want these industries to survive you need to co-operate with us to make that happen starting in (they would obviously need to give the states some warning e.g. in national cabinet).

The question would be whether the Cth had the power to do that? Any such law would be sure to be subject to immediate High Court challenge.
 

mviy

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The Commonwealth could end all federal subsidies that were introduced during COVID arguing that we can no longer afford them, not necessarily tying the decision directly to the border situations but effectively implying that borders need to be opened up in what they say.
 

stryker

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The Commonwealth could end all federal subsidies that were introduced during COVID arguing that we can no longer afford them, not necessarily tying the decision directly to the border situations but effectively implying that borders need to be opened up in what they say.
That might have interesting political repercussions...
 
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mviy

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That might have interesting political repercussions...
Well it would be most likely not done till after the election by whoever wins so people would have 3 years to forget it happened. I can’t see borders reopening until the states and feds agree that it needs to happen.
 

Pushka

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Maybe it's about the definition of "open". Accepting that return flights may be difficult due to caps, surely that warning must come with request/consent to depart. As in NZ. It's not a binary thing currently.
 

Must...Fly!

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And right on cue WA jumps in


Maybe the people’s republic of sydney will be declared?!
Leave the nut job alone, it's a way to get in the papers over there and little else.
 

N860CR

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The UK and USA will be the defining data point. Other countries will provide the same data... but we've been told from day 1 "how bad is America/Britian! Would you rather be there!". It's every single persons go to line when somebody dares question the way Australia has chosen to manage this (and end up basically smack in the middle of world numbers). It's even used on this forum as quite a common attack when somebody has the nerve to say maybe Australia hasn't done the best job.

Now, fast forward 6 months and both the UK and USA could very well be past this. Even the UK is now dropping to double digit daily deaths from their previous peaks. Clearly, the vaccinations work and are doing overall a very good job (and in the UK, I'd say the case/death levels are now at the point of being inline with a seasonal flu).

Should these two countries who have been internationally held up as a beacon of failure be able to turn it around in 12 months to have effectively neutralised the virus basically only via vaccination, then I think the Australian's will seriously struggle to say we need to continue with these draconian and borderline illegal (certainly immoral) measures.
 

roogirl

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Here in the U.K. we had 4 covid deaths yesterday. FOUR!! To put that in context, 20 people a day in the U.K. die of suicide, around 450 a day of cancer and around 1600 a day generally. Lockdown worked, and now the vaccines are working to stop hospitalisation and death. I can’t tell you how annoyed I get when people pontificate that “the vaccines don’t stop transmission” or worse “AZ doesn’t work on the South African variant”. In fact it works very well on the SA variant in terms of serious illness or death. It doesn’t work so well on mild or moderate illness but since when did we shut down the world to prevent mild or moderate illness?

the “wait and see” approach on vaccines in Australia is just baffling. Genuinely interested to see how the narrative changes and how long it takes.
 

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