Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[clifford]

Here are some others:

I don't think drone strikes count.

 

[I love to travel]

Maybe a glimmer of hope that ships can start moving again with a condition laden reopening of the Strait of Homuz

 

[AuSammy]

Thai Airways is now starting to feel thejetfuel crunch on all fronts as the airline just announced it would be cutting routes across the board starting in May due to high fuel costs and supply issues.

https://loyaltylobby.com/2026/04/17/thai-airways-announces-widespread-route-cuts-due-to-fuel-shortage-starting-in-may

 

[AuSammy]

A long way to go yet, but another twist…

Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open as Lebanon ceasefire begins

US President Donald Trump immediately welcomed the news from Tehran but went on to warn that the US blockade of Iran's ports would continue.

www.abc.net.au

 

[jrfsp]

Thai Airways is now starting to feel thejetfuel crunch on all fronts as the airline just announced it would be cutting routes across the board starting in May due to high fuel costs and supply issues.

https://loyaltylobby.com/2026/04/17/thai-airways-announces-widespread-route-cuts-due-to-fuel-shortage-starting-in-may

Literally every single airline is cutting flights at at the moment .

 

[tomlee1986]

A long way to go yet, but another twist…

Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open as Lebanon ceasefire begins

US President Donald Trump immediately welcomed the news from Tehran but went on to warn that the US blockade of Iran's ports would continue.

www.abc.net.au

I would take that with a grain of salt - not about your post, but the fact can we trust Iran with the support of China in this war... I wouldn't personally.

 

[Quickstatus]

Fuel stocks held as of 14/04/26

Previous posts:
#45 Tuesday 10/3/26
#165 for 31/3/26
#214 for 07/04/26


The change in fuel stocks since 10/3/26:
Petrol increase by 356 ML (increase by 9 days)
Jet Fuel increase by 21 ML(increase by 1 day)
Diesel increase by 95ML (increase by 1 day)

 

[Saab34]

I’d be more interested if they provided a forecast map for say the month ahead, ie on average usage/what’s coming into the ports, and where we might be heading. Now I’m aware that’s likely to be politically unpopular for Labor if people start seeing holes in the coming weeks, however better to jump on it now than leaving it until later.

 

[AuSammy]

I’d be more interested if they provided a forecast map for say the month ahead, ie on average usage/what’s coming into the ports, and where we might be heading. Now I’m aware that’s likely to be politically unpopular for Labor if people start seeing holes in the coming weeks, however better to jump on it now than leaving it until later.

Bit hard to predict how buyers will react to the news cycle, return to panic buy, or conserve due to price/sense of public duty, or settle down to pre-war regular pattern.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I’d be more interested if they provided a forecast map for say the month ahead, ie on average usage/what’s coming into the ports, and where we might be heading. Now I’m aware that’s likely to be politically unpopular for Labor if people start seeing holes in the coming weeks, however better to jump on it now than leaving it until later.

Given that there’s virtually been no change in the numbers in 6 weeks… don’t we just assume there’s no looming shortage?

 

[AuSammy]

Given that there’s virtually been no change in the numbers in 6 weeks… don’t we just assume there’s no looming shortage?

My uneducated finger in the air is
- we have actually been getting more onshore/ making more than usual even though demand has been extraordinarily high hence the numbers have been holding up
- there will certainly be a reduction of incoming deliveries for at least a short while regardless of what happens with the war as the effect of restriction of source supply makes it down here, but largely cars are full and people have already stocked up and calming down.
- Diesel will be the issue, demand will remain high due to trucking and planting season, petrol not so much unless panic buying ramps up again.

 

[Pushka]

Given that there’s virtually been no change in the numbers in 6 weeks… don’t we just assume there’s no looming shortage?

Supplies that have been arriving left before the war I believe. Now there's a gap of no ships replenishing. Maybe at risk for the next couple of months.

 

[I love to travel]

Given this thread is about jet fuel - as per the article above, 6 weeks of jet fuel in Europe and still at 30 days for Australia, The million dollar question is how long to top up supplies, and will this be enough to save the European summer travel peak season?

 

[AuSammy]

Given this thread is about jet fuel - as per the article above, 6 weeks of jet fuel in Europe and still at 30 days for Australia, The million dollar question is how long to top up supplies, and will this be enough to save the European summer travel peak season?

I know next to zero about what feedstock can be refined to what products. But if push comes to shove, would the gov be able to to direct what ever raw materials we get be refined to the products most essential to the economy? Eg enough kerosene to maintain a minimum flight schedule and diesel required for transport and agriculture and ration non essential products. Maybe someone in the industry could comment.

 

[elanshin]

Given that there’s virtually been no change in the numbers in 6 weeks… don’t we just assume there’s no looming shortage?

A lot of this is supply that left before the war broke out or running through the reserves.

The public fear was always today, the governments and agencies were always concerned about June onwards assuming the current status quo. But with how fast things could change - you also don't want to incite mass panic until things get really dire.

 

[Saab34]

We will likely need to donate some of our supply to some pacific neighbours also, before China attempts to do so.

 

[AuSammy]

We will likely need to donate some of our supply to some pacific neighbours also, before China attempts to do so.

Thats going to be real popcorn territory watching that happen. Going by previous comments, regardless of what we do it wont be good enough according to the recipients and howled down by the Australia First cohort.

 

[Quickstatus]

I don't think drone strikes count.

Only the 2 Russian ones. There are 9 other ones.