Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jakeseven7]

Just another dart in the magical bubble of dream world

CDC and FDA recommend US pause use of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine over blood clot concerns

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Food and Drug Administration are recommending that the United States pause the use of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine over six reported US cases of a "rare and severe" type of blood clot.

edition.cnn.com

again about 1 case per million, this number is a totally acceptable cost of doing business, if you disagree with that then make a petition to stop all of the following:

scuba diving
sky diving
hand gliding
bungee jumping
contraceptive pill
andddddddddd about 7000 other drugs that people take daily

Yawn I know.

The government, CHO’s and media have unfortunately drummed into the population that all the vaccines have to be 100% perfect which of course is impossible.

People pop pills every day and have adverse reactions far higher than what we are seeing so far and they don’t even read the label or indication for use.

But suddenly everyone is a medical expert and thinks they are qualified to judge these things. Plus news is scarce so beat up a deadly vaccine story to keep your ratings up...

 

[OATEK]

In making this comment I am not seeking to express any party political preference or start a political argument, and hopefully anyone who replies will similarly be constrained.

There will be an election in 2022 for federal parliament, so it will be instructive to see if any of the policy directions might change approaching that event. So far none of the local elections have seen any parties taking a stance of opposing the CHO or similar advice. My guess is this will not change as the country as a whole does not share your rage, and that is a barrier to any dramatic change.

It was encouraging to see the UK transport minister acknowledge the need for family re-union within their society, and that is something that has not been acknowledged by our leaders or alternative leaders that I have seen.

For those of us who are desperately seeking the opportunity for family reunion, I believe it should be possible by early 2022, but at much higher cost than travel for tourism was pre-pandemic. We will be expected to bear this higher cost, and the risk of Covid from our travel, and have some form of quarantine on return.

 

[Tiki]

I think the key here is to show ordinary non-traveling Aussies that the border closures are hurting them too. Lack of freedom, lack of commerce, forced separations, job losses, companies shutting down. We should have a total of 40m Pfizer by Oct, right? That's enough for 20m Aussies, everyone except kids. I am not worried about the AZ vaccine as much as I am worried it may be "looked down on" by countries overseas I want to travel to. Pfizer seems to be universally accepted as the gold standard. I would rather pay extra for a Pfizer than get a free AZ.

And all those AZ we are manufacturing? Can't we donate a lot of them to Pacific Island countries so they can open up their tourism dependant economies? The population of the whole SP region incl Australia, NZ, PNG and the smaller islands is less than 45 million. It shouldn't be THAT difficult to get everyone in the whole Pacific region vaccinated who wants one. Then at the least open borders regionally. And improve a protocol for home quarantine. Yeah, it didn't work a year ago. But now people understand the consequences more. Have huge fines for violations and allow neighbors to dob in rule breakers with a time-stamped video from their phone or something.

 

[openseat]

And all those AZ we are manufacturing? Can't we donate a lot of them to Pacific Island countries so they can open up their tourism dependant economies? The population of the whole SP region incl Australia, NZ, PNG and the smaller islands is less than 45 million. It shouldn't be THAT difficult to get everyone in the whole Pacific region vaccinated who wants one.

It's the right thing to do, and, at the most selfish, it's in our own interest to do it.

 

[jonboixxx]

I am not worried about the AZ vaccine as much as I am worried it may be "looked down on" by countries overseas I want to travel to.

I can't see that happening. Vaccine efficiency is not in question. My second dose of AZ is locked in for 17 June.

 

[Gremlin]

I think the key here is to show ordinary non-traveling Aussies that the border closures are hurting them too. Lack of freedom, lack of commerce, forced separations, job losses, companies shutting down. We should have a total of 40m Pfizer by Oct, right? That's enough for 20m Aussies, everyone except kids. I am not worried about the AZ vaccine as much as I am worried it may be "looked down on" by countries overseas I want to travel to. Pfizer seems to be universally accepted as the gold standard. I would rather pay extra for a Pfizer than get a free AZ.

What's contracted is apparently those doses by the October Quarter. Which could be as late as 31 December.

But equally, neither Pfizer nor AZ have delivered to their original timetable for vaccines delivered since Feb. I'm at least a little bit cynical that all of a sudden we're going to start receiving doses in line with the schedule quoted. I would've thought that if the Federal Government had any confidence in that happening then we'd have a rollout plan and a commitment to vaccinate by Christmas. We don't. Which leaves me feeling like they, also, have no confidence in the delivery timeline.

 

[Gremlin]

I can't see that happening. Vaccine efficiency is not in question. My second dose of AZ is locked in for 17 June.

Vaccine efficiency is a moving target that will depend on the dominant strain(s) worldwide. It may not be in question today, but that could be quite a different story in three/six/twelve months time.

EDIT: Not specifically linked to AZ - equally true for whatever vaccine you might have

 

[burmans]

So what does this mean then... we never open up? I

Life can't be lived like this, unless we want to become another hermit kingdom like NK. Risk is to be managed, not eliminated. Someone will have to put the unelected chief health officers back in their boxes.

I’m a bit more positive than this and I think Gladys nailed it. Currently people look at the overseas stats and are reluctant to open up. But as people see those countries get to full vaccination, see case rates drop dramatically and then those countries open up, allowing travel then attitudes are bound to change.
We have already seen News outlets start a campaign against slow vaccine rollout, I think that if/when circumstances change significantly they would jump on board with encouraging borders to open too.
And we know who Scomo listens to!

 

[jonboixxx]

Vaccine efficiency is a moving target that will depend on the dominant strain(s) worldwide. It may not be in question today, but that could be quite a different story in three/six/twelve months time.

EDIT: Not specifically linked to AZ - equally true for whatever vaccine you might have

My strategy is to get fully vaccinated now and stay informed of rolling developments. It seems like the South African B.1.351 may already pose a problem for current vaccines. Some thinking is that vaccination may be a periodic requirement to combat new strains. Which reminds me, I need to book flu vaccine as flu-like symptoms are on the rise on Flu-tracker.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Pfizer seems to be universally accepted as the gold standard.

But a report a couple of days ago variants may be able to 'break through' Pfizer. Not sure if that extended to other vaccines, but i thought the commentary was that the Oxford vaccine may offer better protection: Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine may be less effective against UK, South African variants, Israeli study finds

Makes it difficult to choose which one is better

 

[Gremlin]

My strategy is to get fully vaccinated now and stay informed of rolling developments. It seems like the South African B.1.351 may already pose a problem for current vaccines. Some thinking is that vaccination may be a periodic requirement to combat new strains. Which reminds me, I need to book flu vaccine as flu-like symptoms are on the rise on Flu-tracker.

Seems like a sensible plan to me. I'll be the same, but am not yet able to be vaccinated according to the schedule.

 

[Seat0B]

I’m a bit more positive than this and I think Gladys nailed it. Currently people look at the overseas stats and are reluctant to open up. But as people see those countries get to full vaccination, see case rates drop dramatically and then those countries open up, allowing travel then attitudes are bound to change.
We have already seen News outlets start a campaign against slow vaccine rollout, I think that if/when circumstances change significantly they would jump on board with encouraging borders to open too.
And we know who Scomo listens to!

I hope you're right. I really need to have hope for travel before some of the gloom and doom (and possibly quite accurate) predictions in this thread of 2023. Family reunion desperately wanted.

 

[Seat0B]

But a report a couple of days ago variants may be able to 'break through' Pfizer. Not sure if that extended to other vaccines, but i thought the commentary was that the Oxford vaccine may offer better protection: Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine may be less effective against UK, South African variants, Israeli study finds

Makes it difficult to choose which one is better

Well yes, but it is not like we actually get any choice about what vaccine we are offered/given.

 

[burmans]

I hope you're right. I really need to have hope for travel before some of the gloom and doom (and possibly quite accurate) predictions in this thread of 2023. Family reunion desperately wanted.

I think this thread from the start has consisted of those who are (incorrectly) wildly positive but equally there are those who are wildly negative, ie we won’t get a vaccine, it won’t work, the virus will adapt. I’d describe myself as more of a cautious optimist, there will continue to be issues but I have a reasonable level of confidence in scientists to resolve these. That’s of course if governments don’t get in their way and stuff it up.

 

[jakeseven7]

But a report a couple of days ago variants may be able to 'break through' Pfizer. Not sure if that extended to other vaccines, but i thought the commentary was that the Oxford vaccine may offer better protection: Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine may be less effective against UK, South African variants, Israeli study finds

Makes it difficult to choose which one is better

Sigh. Viruses mutate as they spread. Which one is better depends on the day you ask.

There are always going to be mutations that sneak past the vaccines, all of them.

That’s why the only way to really stop covid is worldwide suppression, at the same time - which is clearly highly unlikely to happen. Or somehow a miraculous universal coronavirus vaccine.

Otherwise again, kick back and watch the mutations and variants continue, some will be stopped by the vaccines some won’t but we certainly won’t be able to boost every vaccine and inoculate fast enough to get ahead of them all.

So, this means covid is here to stay and some tough conversations are on the horizon about acceptable risk. Ones that Australia has been incapable of having to date.

 

[mviy]

Some mutations will be less virulent and/or less contagious, it's any mutations that are virulent, contagious and vaccine resistant to the point of still causing mass hospitalisations and deaths that are the real worry. If we have any of those it could set things back by at least 12-18 months assuming an existing vaccine can be adapted quickly and go through testing quickly.

 

[oznflfan]

Sigh. Viruses mutate as they spread. Which one is better depends on the day you ask.

There are always going to be mutations that sneak past the vaccines, all of them.

That’s why the only way to really stop covid is worldwide suppression, at the same time - which is clearly highly unlikely to happen. Or somehow a miraculous universal coronavirus vaccine.

Otherwise again, kick back and watch the mutations and variants continue, some will be stopped by the vaccines some won’t but we certainly won’t be able to boost every vaccine and inoculate fast enough to get ahead of them all.

So, this means covid is here to stay and some tough conversations are on the horizon about acceptable risk. Ones that Australia has been incapable of having to date.

Forget us wanting to visit oversea's relatives or get away for a break, not allowing anyone in (aside from returning Aussies) is crippling our way of life:

*No doctors/nurses arriving which strains hospitals to breaking point.
*No farming workers which leaves dead fruit and crops, causing farmers to go broke.
*No backpackers to to do housekeeping/cook/clean hotels, so hoteliers can't open fully nor keep up with domestic needs.

This doesn't even touch on loss of income for tourism operators.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Well yes, but it is not like we actually get any choice about what vaccine we are offered/given.

When it comes time, for those under 50 they could consent to Oxford, or wait for pfizer. If you were close to 50 it might make the choice a real one.

 

[oznflfan]

When it comes time, for those under 50 they could consent to Oxford, or wait for pfizer. If you were close to 50 it might make the choice a real one.

I'm close, however noting the two cases so far in Oz are both in their 40's.

 

[OATEK]

I think this thread from the start has consisted of those who are (incorrectly) wildly positive but equally there are those who are wildly negative, ie we won’t get a vaccine, it won’t work, the virus will adapt. I’d describe myself as more of a cautious optimist, there will continue to be issues but I have a reasonable level of confidence in scientists to resolve these. That’s of course if governments don’t get in their way and stuff it up.

I think this is the only feasible option - cautious optimism. It allows for ups and downs, and staged return of travel initially for those with business or family/personal need, expanding out later for leisure travel.

Forget us wanting to visit oversea's relatives or get away for a break, not allowing anyone in (aside from returning Aussies) is crippling our way of life:

*No doctors/nurses arriving which strains hospitals to breaking point.
*No farming workers which leaves dead fruit and crops, causing farmers to go broke.
*No backpackers to to do housekeeping/cook/clean hotels, so hoteliers can't open fully nor keep up with domestic needs.

This doesn't even touch on loss of income for tourism operators.

But AUS is currently in the grip of 4% GDP increase, House prices holding at worst and ridiculously high in some cases (like where I live). We do not seem to have fallen off a cliff with the end of jobkeeper. So sectional needs get lost in the positive noise generally. So it may be crippling the way of life for some people, but I suspect the community generally is ok with where things are from an economics/jobs perspective.