Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

hb13

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The cost to Tennis Australia for making its own quarantine arrangements are reported as $40 million.

Divide that by 1200 participants = $33,000 per person.

The general caps are set within financial, resource and capacity constraints. They are being increased with the expansion of Howard Springs.

But aren't the caps put in place for medical and health reasons? What's the cost of getting other people into Australia got to do with it?
 

hb13

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This is the question, we always see a number (that remains constant) as 30,000 or 40,000 stranded Australians. The government has abrogated responsibility (other than the arguably token, inefficient "rescue flights") as there is very little political imperative to do so. And the media just craft stories around individuals without delving into any research - 95% of Australians just don't care.

There are likely to be different types of "stranded" Australians. I'm sure half a dozen of AFF'ers with links to overseas could meet and come up with a number of categories in a few hours, so why can't the government? This would be based on the overseas Australians financial ability to support themselves and visa status in the foreign country, to sort out the truly vulnerable and stranded from those, for example, who want to come home because they are not happy with the life they are living (despite having, for example ongoing employment, financial security and valid visas or passports that allow them to remain in the country where they are). Then they may be a category around terminal illnesses and vulnerable relatives etc.

Also, it has been 12 months. I am sure, by now the government could come up with a scheme working with the inbound carriers to provide additional capacity for them to carry those in the truly vulnerable group, but of course this sort of thing isn't as worthy of media soundbites as QF flights.

Then the quarantine itself, they need to eliminate staff. In Singapore, we had someone clad in full protective gear in the lift getting us to the right floor and we lugged our luggage to the room. The same person did this for each arrival. In Sydney, ADF personnel escorted everyone and carried their luggage to their rooms, was that really necessary? Looking at the other pax on our bus, I estimate that may be 2 out of the 20 really needed help with luggage, certainly not everyone. I walked past a HQ venue last night in SIN, checking in arrivals, and there would have been about 4-5 staff total. In Australia, there was probably 10-15 at least. Just use cameras (make them visible not hidden), and perimeter fencing if you're worried about people escaping. The logic of having hundreds of security personnel stationed on each and every floor (who can't do anything if people are escaping, other than alert the police) just confounds me, just use technology, and let people know you're using it.

And don't get me started on reducing the resource burden by treating people coming from countries within the realm of <0.1 case/hundred thousand/week differently to those with 1000's cases/hundred thousand, let them quarantine at home with monitoring bracelets (thinking China, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam here), but that would not be acceptable politically either, such is the fear that's been built up.

I completely agree. IMO, an Australian should be allowed to come home, no matter the reason.

If the government is going to make allowances and concessions for anyone, it should be every Australian who wants to come home first. Once that is done, then you can make arrangements for anyone else. It really should be as simple as that, however, as you said, politically the current situation is completely ok with the majority of Australians in the country.

Many people for some reason want to have their cake and eat it too. The caps were brought in to protect the Australian population apparently. If it is a health/medical situation, then celebrities should also fit the bill.
 

jakeseven7

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And the media just craft stories around individuals without delving into any research - 95% of Australians just don't care.

That is certainly true judging from the incessant posting in this thread by a couple of posters defending the position ;)
 

MEL_Traveller

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Also, it has been 12 months. I am sure, by now the government could come up with a scheme working with the inbound carriers to provide additional capacity for them to carry those in the truly vulnerable group, but of course this sort of thing isn't as worthy of media soundbites as QF flights.

One of the articles I read an airline stated that they do get the occasional direction to carry someone deemed vulnerable by DFAT. The airline can apply for a temporary exemption on the numbers it is allowed to carry on that flight, but if that is not granted, someone else has to be bumped.

One of the QF repatriation flights talked about on AFF carried a number of pax who were not vulnerable, and didn't consider themselves vulnerable. So the system doesn't seem to be working perfectly.
 
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hb13

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My question is why are people just willing to believe everything fed to them by the media and government without questioning it? If we look across the pond at NZ, they have not imposed caps or a ban on leaving the country - is this correct? Someone please correct me if I'm mistaken on this. They have done as well if not better than Australia at controlling the virus.

Australia is currently closer to North Korea than NZ - doesn't that worry anyone? We have no idea of when any of this will be changing. And for those who will say vaccines will change that, there is no evidence of that.
 

dajop

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I completely agree. IMO, an Australian should be allowed to come home, no matter the reason.

There is a bit of nuance here though, maybe you could qualify that statement, an Australian should be allowed to come home once, no matter the reason.

I've been back twice (once, arriving the day before HQ was implemented, so no caps etc, and once in HQ) and TBH have the financial means and the proximity to Australia and the flexibility around working from home that I could, and probably will come home again during the middle of the year (I've noticed out of Singapore that seats often are available last minute), but where does that leave those genuinely in need?
 

MEL_Traveller

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But aren't the caps put in place for medical and health reasons? What's the cost of getting other people into Australia got to do with it?

Who's going to pay $33,000 per person to come home under a private quarantine system?

I completely agree. IMO, an Australian should be allowed to come home, no matter the reason.

If the government is going to make allowances and concessions for anyone, it should be every Australian who wants to come home first. Once that is done, then you can make arrangements for anyone else. It really should be as simple as that, however, as you said, politically the current situation is completely ok with the majority of Australians in the country.

Many people for some reason want to have their cake and eat it too. The caps were brought in to protect the Australian population apparently. If it is a health/medical situation, then celebrities should also fit the bill.

The reason the celebrities are coming is because they are working, and generating employment for Aussies in things like the film and television industry. People having jobs is also a mental health and wellbeing issue. It also generates tax, and puts spending money in the economy.

Of course Aussies should be able to come home, but under the current conditions there isn't room in the (public) system.
 

hb13

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There is a bit of nuance here though, maybe you could qualify that statement, an Australian should be allowed to come home once, no matter the reason.

I've been back twice (once, arriving the day before HQ was implemented, so no caps etc, and once in HQ) and TBH have the financial means and the proximity to Australia and the flexibility around working from home that I could, and probably will come home again during the middle of the year (I've noticed out of Singapore that seats often are available last minute), but where does that leave those genuinely in need?

Yeh, actually you are right - I did mean once only.

Who's going to pay $33,000 per person to come home under a private quarantine system?

It doesn't have to cost that much. As an example, Howard Springs is only being increased now, 12 months later. That could have been done earlier.

The reason the celebrities are coming is because they are working, and generating employment for Aussies in things like the film and television industry. People having jobs is also a mental health and wellbeing issue. It also generates tax, and puts spending money in the economy.

And people stranded overseas have no health and wellbeing issues?

Of course Aussies should be able to come home, but under the current conditions there isn't room in the (public) system.

That's rubbish and you know it. Other countries like NZ have shown it is possible.
 

jase05

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I completely agree. IMO, an Australian should be allowed to come home, no matter the reason.
I disagree slightly as I think there is a big difference between an Australian resident and Australian citizen.
Ive had constant arguments with a few of my rellies over this as 2 have already arrived in Australia from the UK before Christmas and another is coming in a couple of weeks time. All are Australian citizens but haven’t lived here for 10-15 years. All are coming here because they want to holiday in a place that is basically free to do what they please without restrictions and all will return as soon as the situation is better in the UK. For me there is a very big difference in needing to get home v wanting to get home.
Once vaccinations start doing their job in the UK and things look good I’ll be very interested to see how many of those wanting to return home currently have a sudden change of heart
 

hb13

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I disagree slightly as I think there is a big difference between an Australian resident and Australian citizen.
Ive had constant arguments with a few of my rellies over this as 2 have already arrived in Australia from the UK before Christmas and another is coming in a couple of weeks time. All are Australian citizens but haven’t lived here for 10-15 years. All are coming here because they want to holiday in a place that is basically free to do what they please without restrictions and all will return as soon as the situation is better in the UK. For me there is a very big difference in needing to get home v wanting to get home.
Once vaccinations start doing their job in the UK and things look good I’ll be very interested to see how many of those wanting to return home currently have a sudden change of heart

I understand your position, and I can see how it makes more sense for people returning for let's just say a long period of time, rather than a week-long holiday, however, it has been 12 months now. This needs to be fixed. A person who "wants" to come home after a year or two to see his parents or family should be allowed to. Some people don't accept that, but in my opinion that is a need. If it were a situation where you can't come for a few months, sure. Even up to a year, sure, but we are beyond that now. How much longer do we wait?

After 12 months this can be shifted or eased. If the government wants to do it, they can, but they're not willing to.

My next point would be that your definition of a need vs want is very different to probably everyone else here. Is someone wanting to see their parents not a good enough need/want? Where do you draw the line?
 

MEL_Traveller

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It doesn't have to cost that much. As an example, Howard Springs is only being increased now, 12 months later. That could have been done earlier.



And people stranded overseas have no health and wellbeing issues?



That's rubbish and you know it. Other countries like NZ have shown it is possible.

... but going back to where this conversation kicked off a couple days ago, 'we are where we are' at this point in time.

I agree things could have potentially been handled differently, but they weren’t. Just because we didn’t expand Howard Springs earlier doesn’t mean we can just open the borders now with no quarantine, or provide private quarantine at huge expense.

I don't know the numbers for New Zealand, but NZ citizens and residents wanting to return have to apply for a pre-approved place in hotel quarantine before they are allowed to board their flight to NZ. "places are extremely limited' the NZ border site says, but i don't know the numbers: Travel to New Zealand
 

drron

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Why does home quarantine have to cost $33000.
Taiwan can do it a lot cheaper by using freely available technology.main one is GPS tracking of your phone.You might regard it as an invasion of privacy but I regard as a means to enable mine.
Taiwan lets anyone who can even non citizens who qualify for an entry to quarantine in a home even with the tightened regulations this year.

They don't muck around with their fines.This fine is US dollars.

Read to the bottom of that article here is what happens when you step out into the hallway if you are in HQ.
"In December 2020, a migrant worker from the Philippines was fined $3,500 for violating his quarantine for a grand total of eight seconds. The man, who was quarantining in a government-sanctioned hotel, briefly stepped into the hallway outside his room and was captured on CCTV. "

And you need a really good excuse to get out of paying your fine.

So the technology exists.it is about time we used it as @dajop said it is used around Asia.
 

Seat0B

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My question is why are people just willing to believe everything fed to them by the media and government without questioning it? If we look across the pond at NZ, they have not imposed caps or a ban on leaving the country - is this correct? Someone please correct me if I'm mistaken on this. They have done as well if not better than Australia at controlling the virus.

Australia is currently closer to North Korea than NZ - doesn't that worry anyone? We have no idea of when any of this will be changing. And for those who will say vaccines will change that, there is no evidence of that.
Well I’m pretty sure my earlier remarks about the iron curtain and the tactics is the Stasi suggest that I’m right there with you @hb13
 

MEL_Traveller

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Why does home quarantine have to cost $33000.
Taiwan can do it a lot cheaper by using freely available technology.main one is GPS tracking of your phone.You might regard it as an invasion of privacy but I regard as a means to enable mine.
Taiwan lets anyone who can even non citizens who qualify for an entry to quarantine in a home even with the tightened regulations this year.

I don't have an issue with GPS tracking. The issue seems to be controlling the quarantine environment... how do you stop people coming to your place of quarantine? How do you provide food and medical care? Who's going to come around and do the tests? On the one hand you have half a dozen hotel sites in each state, compared to 100,000+ individual sites if people could quarantine at home (assuming at least some of the 220K returned travelers are in pairs or families).

I think those issues will go away once we have vaccination.
 

Seat0B

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There is a bit of nuance here though, maybe you could qualify that statement, an Australian should be allowed to come home once, no matter the reason.

I've been back twice (once, arriving the day before HQ was implemented, so no caps etc, and once in HQ) and TBH have the financial means and the proximity to Australia and the flexibility around working from home that I could, and probably will come home again during the middle of the year (I've noticed out of Singapore that seats often are available last minute), but where does that leave those genuinely in need?
I’m with @hb13 on this one @dajop. There should be no impediment to an Australian citizen being in Australia for any reason at all, or no reason, or a reason that they don’t have to declare to anyone, or just because they feel like it, as often as they want to. And if that normal right of citizenship were to be allowed to all citizens, then the fact that you might make 3 visits here in 12-18 month period (which is absolutely your right as a citizen) would not preclude any other citizen from getting home.
 

drron

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I don't have an issue with GPS tracking. The issue seems to be controlling the quarantine environment... how do you stop people coming to your place of quarantine? How do you provide food and medical care? Who's going to come around and do the tests? On the one hand you have half a dozen hotel sites in each state, compared to 100,000+ individual sites if people could quarantine at home (assuming at least some of the 220K returned travelers are in pairs or families).

I think those issues will go away once we have vaccination.
Well if they come to our house we would be in trouble as we have CCTV at the front.
Food-no problem with online deliveries.Medical-just as in the lockdowns-telehealth.
Tests-I would be happy if they just dropped off 2 kits.I would do mrsdrron and she would do mine.Left outside to be picked up.
But seriously the testing really isn't that hard to organise.

By the way our local security company can organise surveillance for 14 days for way less that $33000.
 

Flashback

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Well if they come to our house we would be in trouble as we have CCTV at the front.
Food-no problem with online deliveries.Medical-just as in the lockdowns-telehealth.
Tests-I would be happy if they just dropped off 2 kits.I would do mrsdrron and she would do mine.Left outside to be picked up.
But seriously the testing really isn't that hard to organise.

By the way our local security company can organise surveillance for 14 days for way less that $33000.

They're doing testing via VC here no issues...
As you say, can easily be done.
 

hb13

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I don't have an issue with GPS tracking. The issue seems to be controlling the quarantine environment... how do you stop people coming to your place of quarantine? How do you provide food and medical care? Who's going to come around and do the tests? On the one hand you have half a dozen hotel sites in each state, compared to 100,000+ individual sites if people could quarantine at home (assuming at least some of the 220K returned travelers are in pairs or families).

I think those issues will go away once we have vaccination.

There are definitely better ways around this than what Australia (North Korea currently) is doing. I'm not sure why there is this endless defense of a system for the sake of defending it without proper research as to the detrimental effects of Australians abroad or proper research as to what is going on.

I thought NZ had similar to number to Australia, but I never realised that Australia had 7 times the no. of deaths of NZ when adjusted for population. Singapore has similar numbers to NZ. Taiwan has even more stellar numbers with deaths being 1/10th of NZ when accounting for population.

Yet you continue to defend a system that has blocked its citizens from leaving for a year (and likely to be at least another year) and doesn't do enough in regards to its citizens who are stranded and running out of money overseas.

All on top of which you're ok for the rich and famous to be exempt and come in and out with no issues.
 

Pushka

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There are definitely better ways around this than what Australia (North Korea currently) is doing. I'm not sure why there is this endless defense of a system for the sake of defending it without proper research as to the detrimental effects of Australians abroad or proper research as to what is going on.

I thought NZ had similar to number to Australia, but I never realised that Australia had 7 times the no. of deaths of NZ when adjusted for population. Singapore has similar numbers to NZ. Taiwan has even more stellar numbers with deaths being 1/10th of NZ when accounting for population.

Yet you continue to defend a system that has blocked its citizens from leaving for a year (and likely to be at least another year) and doesn't do enough in regards to its citizens who are stranded and running out of money overseas.

All on top of which you're ok for the rich and famous to be exempt and come in and out with no issues.
Well, mental health issues have been shoved out the back door. SA had four fatalities on the road just this weekend, of young people. With a couple being single occupant crashes, into a tree, well, I do wonder about that.
 

hb13

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Well, mental health issues have been shoved out the back door. SA had four fatalities on the road just this weekend, of young people. With a couple being single occupant crashes, into a tree, well, I do wonder about that.

Yeh it is unbelievable. Mental health has been really bad, but it is all ok, because Coronavirus is under control - so let's not worry about anything else. It is a shocking attitude, and it is a shame to see really.
 

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