Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

jase05

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Apparently once hotel quarantine staff have been vaccinated. Which is going to start this week I think.

The exact times? Who knows. If they wait for the full dosing regime that would be one shot, three weeks until the next shot, and then another two weeks for maximum effectiveness... so potentially at least 5-6 weeks away?
Some talk that March 13th will see the return of International flights to MEL
 
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RAM

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I am surprised to hear that many of the "returning passengers" are not in fact returning Australians but visiting foreigners.
I have a daughter stuck O/S because of flight availability and inability to pay the high cost of a ticket.
The Federal Govt has no desire, for some reason, to actually solve the problem.

NZ's system (in place for approaching a year) works perfectly according to all media reports - where the quarantine hotels can only be booked via the Govt's system.

The Aust Fed Govt allows a 'free market' approach - "they who can pay the most can get in".

The ABS arrivals data shows up to 50% of arrivals each month since late last year have been foreign nationals on visas.

In December alone there were 8,820 foreign nationals arriving as 'short term visitors' and over 1,000 arriving as 'long term visitors'.
If you dig through the link all up (I recall) there were around 14,000 foreign national visitors or (non-resident) visa holders in December alone.

In 2020, the most frequently stated main reason for journey by short-term visitors to Australia was:

  • Holiday (43.2%)
  • Visiting friends and relatives (30.2%)
  • Education (9.9%)
    • Business (6.6%).

Perhaps send an email or two to all your Federal members (Senate & Reps) as well as some others of note - asking why this is done?
 

dajop

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In 2020, the most frequently stated main reason for journey by short-term visitors to Australia was:

  • Holiday (43.2%)
  • Visiting friends and relatives (30.2%)
  • Education (9.9%)
    • Business (6.6%).

Perhaps send an email or two to all your Federal members (Senate & Reps) as well as some others of note - asking why this is done?

This could be a misrepresentation as you simply cannot discuss statistics relating the the whole calendar year and extrapolate them to visits taking place whilst restrictions were in place. Statistically, visits taking place in Jan/Feb and early March would completely swamp visits taking place over the rest of the year, so it is totally unsurprising the number one reason is holiday. I would not be at all surprised that since restrictions were implemented “visiting friend and relatives” would make up the vast majority of visitors.
 
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burmans

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The public being afraid is just what politicians have always wanted.
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H L Mencken.
I thought that was the definition of religion?
 

OZDUCK

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Perfect example here of the fact that a lot Australians in the country (not all, but many) not really caring about any of the Australians outside of the country. The 'fear factor' is completely fair and being used to full effect.

And as usual your statement that the government only cares about the health of Australians and this is only for medical reasons is false and anyone here can do their research and see the actual facts.

And your "pretty normal social life" isn't so normal when:
- A handful when of new cases forces states to shut borders with immediate effect time and time and time again, causing huge headaches for people.
- My company's marketing manager has been "caught" three times in the past few months and had to spend two weeks in a hotel every time quarantining.
- Perth goes into lockdown for 5 days because of a single case due it being the "scary, deadly, horrific South African strain" - I would call that fear factor on steroids.
- Perth is still taking reduced numbers because they are "auditing their hotel quarantine program"
- Melbourne is still not taking any international arrivals from a few weeks ago - when they claim they have an amazing test and trace system.

How you can honestly sit up there and call some of us nay-sayers when the government somehow manages to accept 1200+ extra arrivals for an international sporting event (Australian Open) and bend the rules for these tennis players (allowing them 5 hours of outdoor activity a day) is a bit ludicrous, but hey, everyone is entitled to their opinion.

I'm all for Australia trying to bring in celebrities and sports stars to boost the economy. But not at the expense of stranded Australians who are running out of visas, money and not able to even afford a ticket home. If the rules have been put in place for "health and medical reasons", no one can be exempted from them - that's only logical, however, they keep being bent depending on who you are.
Just to point out that W.A is not "still taking reduced numbers". The review has been completed and the cap has been increased and once again there are more hotel quarantine spaces available in W.A than NSW on a per head of population basis - whether that is the 'correct' way to evaluate the various cap levels I don't know. The increase in the WA cap was acknowledged by the PM in his press conference that I referenced in post #5040 yesterday.
 

Pom-DownUnder

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i'm feeling the need to bust out the clowncar image again, all the extra time starting months later than other countries to get it all planned out exactly how you want the roll out to go andddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd ....

1615002624489.png
 

hb13

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I am surprised to hear that many of the "returning passengers" are not in fact returning Australians but visiting foreigners.
I have a daughter stuck O/S because of flight availability and inability to pay the high cost of a ticket.

Well some here would have no issues with that. I'm still completely perplexed and disheartened to be honest that any Australian thinks it's ok that stranded Australians cannot come home, however, the brother of a hollywood star can get in.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Well some here would have no issues with that. I'm still completely perplexed and disheartened to be honest that any Australian thinks it's ok that stranded Australians cannot come home, however, the brother of a hollywood star can get in.

I dunno. There will be some aussies genuinely stranded... internal border controls preventing travel to an airport, transit restrictions en route, or simply no flights operating. The caps aren't affecting those people because they can't travel anyway. Nor is a celebrity flying in from the USA going to affect that.

For the rest... there are flights as early as this coming Wednesday ex UK on SQ (if they still allow the 'same plane' transit in SIN). There are flights this week out of other European gateways, into Perth, also on SQ. Economy isn't the cheapest at €2800 a ticket, but the Cth is offering $2000 to help off-set that. If you want to go to Sydney, only business class is available at the AUD10K figures we've seen in the papers. But if you really need to come home, Perth will probably be a good start?

Are those folk genuinely stranded, or is it stranded because of money? If it's money, an extra 'celebrity' coming in isn't going to affect the caps or change the price of the ticket.
 

Pom-DownUnder

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I dunno. There will be some aussies genuinely stranded... internal border controls preventing travel to an airport, transit restrictions en route, or simply no flights operating. The caps aren't affecting those people because they can't travel anyway. Nor is a celebrity flying in from the USA going to affect that.

For the rest... there are flights as early as this coming Wednesday ex UK on SQ (if they still allow the 'same plane' transit in SIN). There are flights this week out of other European gateways, into Perth, also on SQ. Economy isn't the cheapest at €2800 a ticket, but the Cth is offering $2000 to help off-set that. If you want to go to Sydney, only business class is available at the AUD10K figures we've seen in the papers. But if you really need to come home, Perth will probably be a good start?

Are those folk genuinely stranded, or is it stranded because of money? If it's money, an extra 'celebrity' coming in isn't going to affect the caps or change the price of the ticket.
has there been a change or is the Cth offering $2,000 then giving you a $2,000 bill for the quarantine ?
 

hb13

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I dunno. There will be some aussies genuinely stranded... internal border controls preventing travel to an airport, transit restrictions en route, or simply no flights operating. The caps aren't affecting those people because they can't travel anyway. Nor is a celebrity flying in from the USA going to affect that.

For the rest... there are flights as early as this coming Wednesday ex UK on SQ (if they still allow the 'same plane' transit in SIN). There are flights this week out of other European gateways, into Perth, also on SQ. Economy isn't the cheapest at €2800 a ticket, but the Cth is offering $2000 to help off-set that. If you want to go to Sydney, only business class is available at the AUD10K figures we've seen in the papers. But if you really need to come home, Perth will probably be a good start?

Are those folk genuinely stranded, or is it stranded because of money? If it's money, an extra 'celebrity' coming in isn't going to affect the caps or change the price of the ticket.

Maybe you need to do some research because I think you have no idea on what people are facing. Firstly, have you heard how many people who have bought an economy ticket have gotten their tickets cancelled because of someone willing to pay business on the same flight or even premium economy on those airlines offering premium economy? So a 2800 euro ticket will hardly cut it.

You need to be paying at least 4 to 6k for at least a premium economy to get a seat which won't be cancelled. Then you add an extra $3k for hotel quarantine. Taking off $2k, you are looking at a minimum of 5k to get back, and many others have had to pay more.

Do you mind explaining why an extra celebrity, or a few hundred, as have done for the Australian Open, coming isn't going to change the caps?
 

MEL_Traveller

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Maybe you need to do some research because I think you have no idea on what people are facing. Firstly, have you heard how many people who have bought an economy ticket have gotten their tickets cancelled because of someone willing to pay business on the same flight or even premium economy on those airlines offering premium economy? So a 2800 euro ticket will hardly cut it.

You need to be paying at least 4 to 6k for at least a premium economy to get a seat which won't be cancelled. Then you add an extra $3k for hotel quarantine. Taking off $2k, you are looking at a minimum of 5k to get back, and many others have had to pay more.

Do you mind explaining why an extra celebrity, or a few hundred, as have done for the Australian Open, coming isn't going to change the caps?

The Australian Open was outside the normal hotel quarantine system, paid for by Tennis Australia. They were additional resources, not detracting from the rooms available under the general quarantine program.

Most foreign celebrities coming in are choosing some form of private quarantine, again outside the normal system.

You raise a good point about economy vs premium tickets. I thought the issue of bumping pax came in response to changing government restrictions and airlines needing to rearrange flights? If flights are scheduled, and there are no disruptions, changes to transit rules or caps, are people still getting bumped off them? I have friends who booked and flew economy class as planned, for a ticket at AUD1500 one way from China on Air New Zealand. Once the flight into Australia was full all further tickets were removed from sale, including business class. They flew just before the cap was halved, but had they been affected by that, they may well have been bumped. That's why I was looking at seats leaving the UK and Europe this week, which for the moment looks fairly stable with no new restrictions announced.
 

Pushka

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Most foreign celebrities coming in are choosing some form of private quarantine, again outside the normal system.
Shame mere mortals can't organise something similar. Instead of paying around $4000+ under the current system and have to organise decent food for another thousand or so for delivery, for a couple to quarantine in a room without a window, you could put the same amount towards paying a Health approved security service to likewise monitor the movements and be at home.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Shame mere mortals can't organise something similar. Instead of paying around $4000+ under the current system and have to organise decent food for another thousand or so for delivery, for a couple to quarantine in a room without a window, you could put the same amount towards paying a Health approved security service to likewise monitor the movements and be at home.

I managed to find the exemption for Dani Minogue's home quarantine last year... the FOI request went to some 400+ pages. Mostly redacted. Seems there's an awful lot of work going in to organising something like that!
 

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