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Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

MEL_Traveller

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I definitely won't agree with train drivers, bus drivers, or those who work in a slaughterhouse etc those without university degree and/or professional accreditation and no need to travel interstate and internationally for their job to get their jab first before those who need does. This is just not how our economy and society works.

This is how we have decided to manage it in Australia. People in essential services, delivering our food, driving buses, etc are entitled to be kept safe in their place of work, and to also be safe for the people they provide services to.

Managing covid has always been about health first, economy second. I can't see an argument for a consultant or person wanting to visit a trade fair being able to do so before persons providing essential services can be kept safe at work. International travel for essential services should receive vaccinations. But I'm not sure that is a very extensive list.
 
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drron

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You keep saying Coronavirus doesn't kill young people but it does and many of them have side effects that will affect them for the rest of their lives
But exceedingly rare to kill healthy young people.Virtually all children that die have co morbidities.
And no one knows what percentage of people will have chronic problems for the rest of their lives.There certainly won't be many of the young with chronic disease.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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But exceedingly rare to kill healthy young people.Virtually all children that die have co morbidities.
And no one knows what percentage of people will have chronic problems for the rest of their lives.There certainly won't be many of the young with chronic disease.
There will always be people that are of the view that a 1:2000 death rate is basically no impact.
 

N860CR

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There will always be people that are of the view that a 1:2000 death rate is basically no impact.

It’s a pandemic. People will die. If you honestly believe otherwise, you’re extremely naive, at best. If we stopped the world for every 1:2000 death rate then there would be nothing left.
 

dajop

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It’s a pandemic. People will die. If you honestly believe otherwise, you’re extremely naive, at best. If we stopped the world for every 1:2000 death rate then there would be nothing left.

The thing is we really don't know what the "no intervention" death rate is. Belgium has the worst death rate with 1 in every 722 Belgians dying this year due to COVID-19.

It's also interesting to look at the age claims. It seems in the US, compared to the overall number of people who've passed this year due to any cause, once you get over 45 the proportions passing with COVID aren't that different (i.e. 8.4% of people who passed in the US this year in the 45-54 age group died with COVID-19, whilst 10.4% of those in the 75-84 aged group died with COVID. vs <1% for those under 15).


 

N860CR

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Well no, that’s just how it is. Sorry if it doesn’t suit your narrative.


The thing is we really don't know what the "no intervention" death rate is. Belgium has the worst death rate with 1 in every 722 Belgians dying this year due to COVID-19.

I’m not advocating a “no intervention” model, and I don’t believe too many are. The problem is we seem to only look at the Trump “ignore it and it will go away” model and the Australian “shut the country down and keep people locked in their individual states because of 1 case” model.

The method we were sold was “flatten the curve” and allow the hospitals to prepare so they’re not overrun. That’s the correct model for a mild virus, but we seem to have forgotten this because of tabloid media hysteria.

Do people really believe the answer is to just hide under the blanket and never come out? We have literally no plan in this country other than for a 100% effective vaccine that just makes it go away overnight. And now that we are suspiciously close to that, we seem to be moving away again!
 

dajop

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I’m not advocating a “no intervention” model, and I don’t believe too many are. The problem is we seem to only look at the Trump “ignore it and it will go away” model and the Australian “shut the country down and keep people locked in their individual states because of 1 case” model.

The method we were sold was “flatten the curve” and allow the hospitals to prepare so they’re not overrun. That’s the correct model for a mild virus, but we seem to have forgotten this because of tabloid media hysteria.

Do people really believe the answer is to just hide under the blanket and never come out? We have literally no plan in this country other than for a 100% effective vaccine that just makes it go away overnight. And now that we are suspiciously close to that, we seem to be moving away again!

Yes, I agree with this, there is a lack of leadership in coming up with solutions to manage the risks with the virus. I think the Victorian experience has scared everyone. I contrast this to Singapore (where I am) , which whilst similarly conservative and very strict, does seem to be at least exploring options to keep the population safe whilst finding ways to allow people to entry the country relatively safely . We have three bands of countries, those that can enter the country and are free to move around with a negative test (previous days in AU, NZ, VN, CN, BN), those that are must take pre-arranged transport and have 7 day self isolation at home or hotel, followed by negative test, and those that must go to hotel quarantine for 14 day. Short term visitors, including tourists can enter the country from the first group (if their governments allow them to!). There are also some other protocols for essential business traffic ("green lanes") . But Singapore needs international people movement to thrive, arguably Australia does not.

Or maybe in Australia it's because Aged Care is such a flustercuck that will take years to sort out?
 

N860CR

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Or maybe in Australia it's because Aged Care is such a flustercuck that will take years to sort out?

Totally agree. And it’s terrifying that the government seems more committed to pushing the fantasy that a pandemic will kill the population rather than admit we have an issue with aged care.

As I’ve said a few times, I’ve been traveling across the country during this pandemic with my “specialist exemption” and seeing the incredible money wasted on “border control” (which has been more of a show than airport security most of the time) is terrifying.

If we actually “flattened the curve” in April, set the hospitals up (rather than just stood down staff on no pay or forced leave because the wards were empty) and controlled access to aged care, we have had very little impact from this “pandemic” and would now be in a position to open up at a much larger level.

Look at the few times we had a “breach” caused by a younger person with Coronavirus. Did we care that they had a “life ending” virus? We’re we concerned that they would die? No, because that was never going to happen. We were angry because we’d worked ourselves up into a panic.
 
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mrfreeze

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Ok about 1000 dead from 2.2m cases - 18-29 age group in the US

And how many of those was solely because of Covid and not some other underlying health issue which when combined with Covid caused death?

Think about this, if died because I had a heart attack while driving would the road fatality count be increased because I crashed and "died" as a result of the accident.

What I am getting at is how many deaths world wide are a direct result of Covid alone, not because they were infected with Covid and died as a result of a combination of factors which were leading to their death anyway.
 

Pom-DownUnder

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Like i said months ago, australian gov not understanding the concept that the perfect is the enemy of the good. The whole basis of this approach is based around holding out till a vaccine, and they are going to be 3 to 4 months behind the grown up countries in getting the vaccine rolling. Disgusting
 

MEL_Traveller

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The method we were sold was “flatten the curve” and allow the hospitals to prepare so they’re not overrun. That’s the correct model for a mild virus, but we seem to have forgotten this because of tabloid media hysteria.

Do people really believe the answer is to just hide under the blanket and never come out? We have literally no plan in this country other than for a 100% effective vaccine that just makes it go away overnight. And now that we are suspiciously close to that, we seem to be moving away again!

'Flatten the curve' changed. We saw in Victoria the devastating impacts on the health system of a single outbreak. That's not fair on the patients or those we expect to work in our hospitals.

We are working on multiple angles. The vaccine is just one part, although a pretty big one. I'm not sure however that the general population embraced the 'isolate the aged'. Yes we need to fix aged care, but it's no life for them to be singled out and locked down while the rest of the population carries on as normal. (And on top of that, the huge added stress of some doctors and ethicists telling them that if there was a major outbreak they'd be deemed 'dispensable' if it came to rationing medical care).
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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And how many of those was solely because of Covid and not some other underlying health issue which when combined with Covid caused death?

Think about this, if died because I had a heart attack while driving would the road fatality count be increased because I crashed and "died" as a result of the accident.

What I am getting at is how many deaths world wide are a direct result of Covid alone, not because they were infected with Covid and died as a result of a combination of factors which were leading to their death anyway.
It’s the US’s CDC figures similar to what dajop posted.

You could also argue that a proportion of death would be poor access to healthcare as well.

The UK reports numbers of deaths within 28 days of a positive test, which would have narrowed cause down. But I was unable to quickly find an age group breakdown to note.

But like most numbers in this field nothing is pure/foolproof. But my impression is that it’s indicative.

In the US the overall death rate is 1:50.
 

drron

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It’s the US’s CDC figures similar to what dajop posted.

You could also argue that a proportion of death would be poor access to healthcare as well.

The UK reports numbers of deaths within 28 days of a positive test, which would have narrowed cause down. But I was unable to quickly find an age group breakdown to note.

But like most numbers in this field nothing is pure/foolproof. But my impression is that it’s indicative.

In the US the overall death rate is 1:50.
The CDC figures are not from deaths due to Covid alone.The great majority were from those with comorbidities.As well the CDC ( and Swedish authorities ) will count a death as a Covid death if they have had a positive test.The CDC allowed Covid to be put down as a cause of death if it was thought probable or possible even though there was no test evidence.

"In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot
be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances
are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it
is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as
“probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should
use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19
infection was likely. However, please note that testing for
COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible"


This resulted in some ludicrous situations such as people dying of gunshot wounds being counted as a Covid death in the USA.Hopefully those ones were removed from the statistics.

And remember Dr. Young in QLD when a man in Blackall was found dead at home but the post morten provided a positive Covid test, subsequently shown to be a false positive.She said whatever the reason for his death found at post mortem it would be counted as a Covid death.She also said the second test done at the post mortem which was negative was a false negative.

"You then get into semantics about what was the trigger and what was the cause. Any person who dies, who is infected with COVID-19, we declare it as a COVID-19 related death," Dr Young said"

"Second negative test considered false​

Dr Young said a second coronavirus sample that was taken from Mr Turner was negative, but was considered invalid."

Also the average life expectancy in Australia is 83.5.The average age of those dying from Covid-85.
 

oznflfan

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Despite I agree healthcare workers may be able to have their holiday earlier, I don't agree with the third category of people where so call those working in crucial sectors get it first.

I definitely won't agree with train drivers, bus drivers, or those who work in a slaughterhouse etc those without university degree and/or professional accreditation and no need to travel interstate and internationally for their job to get their jab first before those who need does. This is just not how our economy and society works.

Moreover, I also don't think it is fair for Australia to open travel to the US and Europe at the same time as to Asia and NZ. Surely the government should find a way to open two-way travel to NZ first, followed by safe Asian countries before to the rest of the world, where there is still some risk of coronavirus whilst people in Australia are getting vaccinated, right?

That's where I think even we are talking travel post-vaccine, there should be discussion and some policy with travel pre-vaccine or at early stages to ensure our economy keeps going.
Why does the life of someone with a university degree worth more than someone without?
 

drron

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I would think that train and bus drivers are at high risk of spreading the disease if they get it and slaughterhouse workers are at greater risk of getting the disease so they should have a greater priority than someone with a Uni degree in a high paying job working from home most of the time.
 

N860CR

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'Flatten the curve' changed. We saw in Victoria the devastating impacts on the health system of a single outbreak. That's not fair on the patients or those we expect to work in our hospitals.

We are working on multiple angles. The vaccine is just one part, although a pretty big one. I'm not sure however that the general population embraced the 'isolate the aged'. Yes we need to fix aged care, but it's no life for them to be singled out and locked down while the rest of the population carries on as normal. (And on top of that, the huge added stress of some doctors and ethicists telling them that if there was a major outbreak they'd be deemed 'dispensable' if it came to rationing medical care).

And if Victoria had spent the first lockdown preparing (as we were told they were going to) there wouldn’t have been an issue. To be honest, there was no issue anywhere as the health system was nowhere near capacity.

I’m still struggling to see any angle that isn’t “hide under the blanket and wait for a vaccine”. And even when the vaccine comes, we will need a serious mentality shift as the population isn’t being prepared for what a vaccine will actually do.

It’s not “singling out” aged care, it’s protecting those who need to be protected. And we do it quite regularly during bad flu seasons. Unfortunately, we all have to die eventually, and 90 year olds in nursing homes will always be at a very high risk.
 

MEL_Traveller

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And if Victoria had spent the first lockdown preparing (as we were told they were going to) there wouldn’t have been an issue. To be honest, there was no issue anywhere as the health system was nowhere near capacity.

I’m still struggling to see any angle that isn’t “hide under the blanket and wait for a vaccine”. And even when the vaccine comes, we will need a serious mentality shift as the population isn’t being prepared for what a vaccine will actually do.

It’s not “singling out” aged care, it’s protecting those who need to be protected. And we do it quite regularly during bad flu seasons. Unfortunately, we all have to die eventually, and 90 year olds in nursing homes will always be at a very high risk.

The Victorian health system was stretched to capacity during the outbreak. Health care workers were infected, plus large numbers of health care staff - as contacts - had to be in quarantine.

The beds themselves might not have been at full capacity, but the resources to look after them were.

We have the luxury of 'hiding under the blanket' because of the speed and potential success of vaccine development. Many were initially skeptical a vaccine could be developed in under 3-5 years... if that had been the case, we may have had to look at other measures.

But as it is, there's little point opening up more risk than we need to simply to save one or two months before the vaccine is ready.

Unfortunately 'protecting those who need it' under covid means a pretty isolated and lonely existence, cut off from family, friends and a social life. But it's much more than that, there are many elderly and vulnerable living in the community. So on that basis, we were all in it together to suppress the spread.
 

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