New airline to fly Sydney/Melbourne in 3rd quarter rumour

[ozfflyer]

Which is why they can price war

any price war will be on flights that don't suit business types, so Mon-Fri 1000-1400 & after say 2000 & some Sat especially pm & Sun am only.

 

[docjames]

So not including fuel, crewing, ticketing costs, landing fees, etc each aircraft needs to make circa $1000/day to break even or squeak a profit on the airframe rental alone.

I’m sure there others here who have a far better idea of other costs involved - fuel, maintenance, crews, ground staff etc

It’s hard to imagine where the profit will
come from in the short term.

 

[dajop]

So not including fuel, crewing, ticketing costs, landing fees, etc each aircraft needs to make circa $1000/day to break even or squeak a profit on the airframe rental alone.

So if you ran the aircraft on 6 sectors per day, 6 days a week (no Saturday pm or Sunday am) , at 70% load factor, about $8.50 from every seat sold would be needed just to cover the airframe rental cost.

 

[ozfflyer]

So not including fuel, crewing, ticketing costs, landing fees, etc each aircraft needs to make circa $1000/day to break even or squeak a profit on the airframe rental alone.

I’m sure there others here who have a far better idea of other costs involved - fuel, maintenance, crews, ground staff etc

It’s hard to imagine where the profit will
come from in the short term.

guess they need to keep staff to an absolute minimum. If they treat it like a light aircraft charter, then labour costs might not get out of control. Remember flying with Rex, think the flight attendant, did check in. Any need for any baggage handler ? Maybe, but 1 only. Some multi tasking perhaps.

At the end of the day, it's all about bums in seats. Like any airline, they would obviously need a decent average load factor, ie. fill aircraft with various types of fares. Maybe the airly idea(ala surf air USA) might work to some degree.

 

[Quickstatus]

So if you ran the aircraft on 6 sectors per day, 6 days a week (no Saturday pm or Sunday am) , at 70% load factor, about $8.50 from every seat sold would be needed just to cover the airframe rental cost.

If it were that simple

 

[Quickstatus]

any price war will be on flights that don't suit business types, so Mon-Fri 1000-1400 & after say 2000 & some Sat especially pm & Sun am only.

Last price war also involved peak fares

 

[dajop]

If it were that simple

No but it can be used to do some quick calculations to prove the how costs can quickly add up and how easy it is to make a small fortune from an airline .

To go one stop further, if your aircraft it doing 6 trips between MEB & BWU a day (3 on weekends), that's roughly 12 shifts a week. So, for arguments sake 7 pilots and 4-5 cabin crew. so thats over $1m/annum, or $23 per sold seat. So we're up to $31 a seat, without fuel, maintenance, landing fees, insurance or overheads ....

My theory is that if it was going to work, and provide a decent return on investment, there's a fairly astute operator of Saab's in Australia already and they would have dabbled in it.

 

[ozfflyer]

sh

So if you ran the aircraft on 6 sectors per day, 6 days a week (no Saturday pm or Sunday am) , at 70% load factor, about $8.50 from every seat sold would be needed just to cover the airframe rental cost.

guess that shows how cheap it could be, if can keep other overheads under control.

 

[ozfflyer]

Last price war also involved peak fares

don't think so. A few weird & wonderful corporate deals were thrown around, but giving some corporate 10 or even 15% off the fare, not the taxes & charges, can be a lottle bit meaningless. Generally % off sales, are becoming meaningless in travel & retail these days. Ask % off what ?

 

[ozfflyer]

No but it can be used to do some quick calculations to prove the how costs can quickly add up and how easy it is to make a small fortune from an airline .

To go one stop further, if your aircraft it doing 6 trips between MEB & BWU a day (3 on weekends), that's roughly 12 shifts a week. So, for arguments sake 7 pilots and 4-5 cabin crew. so thats over $1m/annum, or $23 per sold seat. So we're up to $31 a seat, without fuel, maintenance, landing fees, insurance or overheads ....

My theory is that if it was going to work, and provide a decent return on investment, there's a fairly astute operator of Saab's in Australia already and they would have dabbled in it.

think Rex work in with Virgin, eg. you can tag your bags all the way on an itinerary that involved Virgin & Rex, domestically at least. I'd say Virign gets some feed from Rex & vice versa. They wouldn't want to mess that up.

I'm not crew scheduler, but surely above idea, could be done, with 4 pilots & 2 cabin crew + a pilot & cabin crew member, in reserve.

 

[ozfflyer]

am

So if you ran the aircraft on 6 sectors per day, 6 days a week (no Saturday pm or Sunday am) , at 70% load factor, about $8.50 from every seat sold would be needed just to cover the airframe rental cost.

sure they'd be aiming for much higher than 70% load factor, even if they sold some of that last 30% at loss leader, basic, use it or lose it(no changes) fares, they still help to pay the bills.

 

[Quickstatus]

sh

guess that shows how cheap it could be, if can keep other overheads under control.

Ok in that case just leave out the fuel, pilots and pilot training, cabin crew and training, employee uniform, corporate governance, regulatory costs, website presence and costs of selling tickets, merchant facilities, landing fees, maintenance, workers comp.

Then associated costs if an aircraft is unserviceable or out of position due to weather, diversions.

Really how difficult can it be - just rent a few Saabs and off we go!.

Just $8 costs?. . Let’s just do back of envelope and just call it $20 a ticket. Add in 20% profit so round it up to say $25 a ticket J class. Just pay a few backpackers to run the checkin and a few casual pilots and cabin crew. Must be a lot around wanting some hours. Some work experience kids to work the website.

Ok let’s go!!

 

[ozfflyer]

Ok in that case just leave out the fuel, pilots and pilot training, cabin crew and training, employee uniform, corporate governance, regulatory costs, website presence and costs of selling tickets, merchant facilities, landing fees, maintenance, workers comp.

Then associated costs if an aircraft is unserviceable or out of position due to weather, diversions.

Really how difficult can it be - just rent a few Saabs and off we go!.

Just $8 costs?. . Let’s just do back of envelope and just call it $20 a ticket. Add in 20% profit so round it up to say $25 a ticket J class. Just pay a few backpackers to run the checkin and a few casual pilots and cabin crew. Must be a lot around wanting some hours. Some work experience kids to work the website.

Ok let’s go!!

guess if it was easy, everyone would be doing it. You seem to have this idea, that it's labour intensive. It doesn't have to be. Apart from aircraft ops, you don't have to have a lot of staff. Think of chartering a small plane & then just imagine a larger aircraft, done on the same basis.

 

[Quickstatus]

guess if it was easy, everyone would be doing it. You seem to have this idea, that it's labour intensive. It doesn't have to be. Apart from aircraft ops, you don't have to have a lot of staff. Think of chartering a small plane & then just imagine a larger aircraft, done on the same basis.

Yes, just leave out those bits that I mentioned above

Of course it’s easy. It’s just $8 per pax!
Plus 4 pilots plus 2 cabin crew per aircraft. Look like you got an airline. When are you starting?

 

[ozfflyer]

Yes, just leave out those bits that I mentioned above

Of course it’s easy. It’s just $8 per pax!
Plus 4 pilots plus 2 cabin crew per aircraft. Look like you got an airline. When are you starting?

If it was a virtual airline, the airline ops are provided by the operating airline, like a charter. Not sure what flight attendant ratio has to be, but think Rex only have 1 flight attendant for 34 seats. Not sure how many on a Qantaslink Dash 8 (200 or 300).

 

[Quickstatus]

Wait are you running a real or virtual airline?

 

[ozfflyer]

Wait are you running a real or virtual airline?

not running anything, just speculating. Virtual airline, might be cheaper option than the whole show. You need to think outside the box, maybe more like a charter flight

 

[Deleted member 29185]

I wonder if Air North could be a possible candidate. A fleet of E170s, E120s and Metroliners with an already impressive commercial operation and the possibilty to earn QFF points and SCs.

 

[AviatorInsight]

I wonder if Air North could be a possible candidate. A fleet of E170s, E120s and Metroliners with an already impressive commercial operation and the possibilty to earn QFF points and SCs.

The E170 would be out straight away. Too heavy to depart Bankstown and runway not long enough. The E120 would do it and be a much more comfortable ride than a Metro.

Air North do currently fly from TWB-MEL so not sure what advantage flying from BWU-MEB would have.

 

[Quickstatus]

@Melburnian1
There was a comment in this thread some time ago that most of the flights on the SYD-MEL-SYD and vica versa was beset with delays and cancellations.

I read the recent Bitre March 2019 report that cancellation on that route was 5.4% - most attributed to weather. And overall that route measures at least 70% roughly for ontime performance