New airline to fly Sydney/Melbourne in 3rd quarter rumour

[ozfflyer]

much quicker to get in & out of Essendon than Tulla, both for aircraft & passengers. Suggest it might be as much as 15-20 mins each way.

Moorabin runway might be too short

 

[ozfflyer]

Don’t know about that. I suspect the high frequency traveller would still choose the big boys - these flyers often change flights at last minute. The secondary airports and startups will not service any connections incl the internationals until they go a bigger fleet. A clientele that only lives on Parramatta and surrounds won’t cut it.

Don’t forget the 2nd airport

actually not many people change their flights, so it's a con to say they need flexibility. Some do sit aorund the qantas/virgin clubs for hours though. Who cares about international connections ? Don't think a startup flying Bankstown to Essedon would be at all concerend about that, although think essendon does have a regular free bus to tulla. Parramatta & surrounds ? How many million people are we talking.

More I think about it, the more I think Moxy in USA are onto something.

 

[ozfflyer]

Don’t know about that. I suspect the high frequency traveller would still choose the big boys - these flyers often change flights at last minute. The secondary airports and startups will not service any connections incl the internationals until they go a bigger fleet. A clientele that only lives on Parramatta and surrounds won’t cut it.

Don’t forget the 2nd airport

2nd airport in Sydney? How many years away is that (7 years minimum) & way out west, plus will have same issues with security, baggage that Mascot has. Keeping aircraft MTOW under 20t makes a lot of sense.

 

[docjames]

Good luck to them, but it looks on face value to be a quick way to burn through cash.

If they can provide a reliable service, with a low number of seats needing to be filled each day to make a profit, then it has a chance.

If they need to fill 80%+ of seats, and/or cant run reliably, then they are in for a short life expectancy.

 

[Quickstatus]

Based on all the past startup failures, I won’t hold my breath.

The only reason Virgin succeeded was because Ansett was terminally ill and deep pockets backed the venture.

 

[Deleted member 29185]

Good luck to them, but it looks on face value to be a quick way to burn through cash.

Based on all the past startup failures, I won’t hold my breath.

I think both of these above-mentioned statements are accurate.

My assessment is that such a venture is likely to fail, but if it were to succeed, they would need (IMHO):
1. A niche offering;
2. Suitable jets (I doubt a prop operation will attract enough punters);
3. A currently successful operation with the ability to provide life support for an extended period;
4. Competitive fares;
5. A decent marketing budget; and
6. Solid support from the proposed airports.

Comments about people paying a premium to miss SYD and MEL madness are just pipe dreams I reckon. Comments about people being happy to fly a prop over that distance is also wide of the mark IMHO. (why have VA scrapped most of their much laudered ATR 72's?)

However, I might be wrong, but I can guarantee you that I won't be investing in the concept.

 

[ozfflyer]

Good luck to them, but it looks on face value to be a quick way to burn through cash.

If they can provide a reliable service, with a low number of seats needing to be filled each day to make a profit, then it has a chance.

If they need to fill 80%+ of seats, and/or cant run reliably, then they are in for a short life expectancy.

if turboprops, they are cheap to operate & reliable. Like all airlines they'd probably have seats at all prices. Not hard to fill an aircraft, any idiot can do that by giving away seats. Jets on other hand are expensive to operate.

 

[ozfflyer]

I think both of these above-mentioned statements are accurate.

My assessment is that such a venture is likely to fail, but if it were to succeed, they would need (IMHO):
1. A niche offering;
2. Suitable jets (I doubt a prop operation will attract enough punters);
3. A currently successful operation with the ability to provide life support for an extended period;
4. Competitive fares;
5. A decent marketing budget; and
6. Solid support from the proposed airports.

Comments about people paying a premium to miss SYD and MEL madness are just pipe dreams I reckon. Comments about people being happy to fly a prop over that distance is also wide of the mark IMHO. (why have VA scrapped most of their much laudered ATR 72's?)

However, I might be wrong, but I can guarantee you that I won't be investing in the concept.

Maybe it wouldn't be at a premium cost ?

I don't know the average return fare SYD/MEL or MEL/SYD but hazard a guess that most business types pay north of $500 return in economy, to go for a day trip & often not even know what is paid. (don't forget the cost of return taxi/uber, which might not be required if indeed Bankstown was used)

eg. I can imagine the conversation going something like this ...

manager to assistant .... book me a flight tomorrow to MEL(from SYD) at 7am, coming home at 6pm. Price might not even be mentioned, unless the assistant is used to booking $500 fares & nothing less under say $800.

 

[Quickstatus]

if turboprops, they are cheap to operate & reliable. Like all airlines they'd probably have seats at all prices. Not hard to fill an aircraft, any idiot can do that by giving away seats. Jets on other hand are expensive to operate.

Then I can’t understand why QF seem to fill their seats for WGA-SYD and ZL is rarely full

 

[dajop]

eg. I can imagine the conversation going something like this ...

manager to assistant .... book me a flight tomorrow to MEL(from SYD) at 7am, coming home at 6pm. Price might not even be mentioned, unless the assistant is used to booking $500 fares & nothing less under say $800.

No, more likely ... book me a flight tomorrow, make sure it's on Qantas.

 

[Quickstatus]

There are lots of “road warrior” types who run that route in Y but are WP who book late. They won’t be happy with “lounge” in BWU/MEB

Does the red bus stop and pickup at MEB?

 

[ozfflyer]

No, more likely ... book me a flight tomorrow, make sure it's on Qantas.

no Virgin is much better airline !!!

 

[Quickstatus]

no Virgin is much better airline !!!

Then why does QF have most of the road warrior and J flyers?

I knew it would come to this...

 

[ozfflyer]

Then I can’t understand why QF seem to fill their seats for WGA-SYD and ZL is rarely full

How do you know this ?

ZL has more flights than QF, but QF has larger aircraft WGA/SYD. Qantas playing on safety, or Qantas with connections at SYD to everywhere ?

ZL does interline baggage with VA at SYD I think ?

BTW-Qantas hasn't had a major crash since 1999. September I think it was in Bangkok, when they wrote off a 744, that ended up on golf course.

 

[ozfflyer]

Then why does QF have most of the road warrior and J flyers?

I knew it would come to this...

good question, but VA must have 40-45% don't they ? QF bigger network maybe.

 

[ozfflyer]

There are lots of “road warrior” types who run that route in Y but are WP who book late. They won’t be happy with “lounge” in BWU/MEB

Does the red bus stop and pickup at MEB?

lounges ?

I think most people want to spend as little time in airports as possible. Who has time to swan around a lounge all day, apart from public servants.

It can be very stressful, at big airports, 1. check in queue, 2. security queue (bend over), 3. run up to a km to gate, etc. Those 3 items are eliminated if use Bankstown. Not sure what current security situation is at Essendon.

 

[Quickstatus]

“As little time as possible”

. But here is the rub...

Road warriors and J pax often don’t know when they get to airport. Often they arrive early and depending on ticket can as you say minimise their time at airport by moving to an earlier flight. Or if they can’t, a lounge with free slosh is the preference

 

[Quickstatus]

How do you know this ?
.

Because I’ve done 5 returns on QF and 6 on ZL

Once you can offer onward connections on one ticket you have the business

Safety mean little on the mind of travellers these days. Some do travel on the basis of safety but I would not say the majority.

VH-OJH was not a write off. It was repaired and operated for a further 13 years. That’s a pretty good return on the repair bill.

 

[Deleted member 29185]

if turboprops, they are cheap to operate & reliable ... Jets on other hand are expensive to operate.

Hence the first problem. I'm not debating the cost difference between prop and jet. My argument is that pax flying SYD-MEL expect a jet. I've heard the argument that a turbo prop may be just as quick as a jet, but I personally don't subscribe to that theory. For me, given the choice of a jet or prop, I'd much prefer a jet.

Maybe it wouldn't be at a premium cost? ... manager to assistant .... book me a flight tomorrow to MEL(from SYD) at 7am, coming home at 6pm. Price might not even be mentioned, unless the assistant is used to booking $500 fares & nothing less under say $800.

Let's hope you're right. I actually like greater competition provided it doesn't drawn down on our niceties and safety. I tend to think not only does this concept need to be competitive, it most likely needs to be cheaper to draw the crowds. We've all seen what has happened with that in the past, QF definitely (and most likely VA) will slash their fares until the competition dies (unless they believe the competition will die of it's own accord). The only digression to this scenario will be if the new comer has a niche (the one that comes to mind for me is an all J experience, which has been pointed out was trialed and failed). For corporate travelers, it's not really about the price, it's about the facilities on offer. Although you tend to believe carrying your own luggage to plane (sometimes in the rain) is what people will see as a good thing, I believe the corporate traveler is conditioned to their luggage arriving on a carousel and the walk to the plane is via an aerobridge.

That conversation you mentioned may also include the words "and make sure it's not that mob leaving Bankstown as last time I didn't make it home that night to my family and it cost me $400 for a MEL hotel for the night because they couldn't take off due to ... "

 

[Quickstatus]

I’m actually coming round to the idea of trains for the BNE-SYD-MEL corridor as I’m typing this travelling at 275km/h on a 16 carriage Shinkansen.

That would be a game changer. But unfortunately the capital cost is enormous as our distances are far in excess of what the Shinkansens travel