How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

[Pushka]

Interesting piece in the NY Times today. I don't have the training to know if their claims make sense.

In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (Published 2020)

As scientists at the Jenner Institute prepare for mass clinical trials, new tests show their vaccine to be effective in monkeys.

www.nytimes.com

That was the link I posted yesterday on one of these multiple Covid threads. Sounds hopeful and being repurposed can skip a few steps.

 

[p--and--t]

Well it seems SAS have decided whatever form future air travel takes, there will be a lot less of it..

SAS Fires Half Of Its Employees

SAS gives notices to half of its employees.

loyaltylobby.com

 

[CityRail]

There is also promising signs from Australian researchers as well:

Coronavirus vaccine breakthrough as Queensland scientists raise high levels of antibodies in testing

Early tests of The University of Queensland's COVID-19 vaccine have shown it can raise high levels of antibodies that can neutralise the deadly virus.

www.sbs.com.au

 

[OZDUCK]

That was the link I posted yesterday on one of these multiple Covid threads. Sounds hopeful and being repurposed can skip a few steps.

oops - it is hard to keep up with all these threads.

 

[Pushka]

oops - it is hard to keep up with all these threads.

Actually I think yours was a later one with even better news And yes, so many threads. Be good to see them all gone. One day.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Actually I think yours was a later one with even better news And yes, so ,any threads. Be good to see them all gone. One day.

Yes it will be good to eventually see all the CV19 gone.

Until then this will sadly remain the Australian Former Flyers Forum

 

[JohnM]

That was the link I posted yesterday on one of these multiple Covid threads. Sounds hopeful and being repurposed can skip a few steps.

'Repurposed' 'breakthroughs' are the current buzzwords hyping the usual chronic over-statement.

It will be interesting to keep a copy of all these claims as they are presented now - then revisit them in five years to see where they ended up...

It's a lifetime from in vitro or test animal demonstrations of efficacy to a mass-produced, fully safety tested vaccine or drug (same goes for pesticides).

 

[Pushka]

'Repurposed' 'breakthroughs' are the current buzzwords hyping the usual chronic over-statement.

It will be interesting to keep a copy of all these claims as they are presented now - then revisit them in five years to see where they ended up...

It's a lifetime from in vitro or test animal demonstrations of efficacy to a mass-produced, fully safety tested vaccine or drug (same goes for pesticides).

Yes I understand. But in this case “repurposed” actually has value as it means it can skip a few steps (= months of trials) if it is proven to be effective. That is what interests me greatly. Breakthroughs? Totally agree. Waste of space.

 

[tgh]

To be fair , constructive chatter about a vaccine by journalists is a useful social "carrot" when facing an uncertain future.
Much better to "imagine" something to loom forward to than the alternative.
One the initial noise dies down and the adrenaline levels drop , will be a lot of very flat people about.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Interesting article here about problems with the notion of a ‘coronavirus passport’ indicating someone has had the disease and - leap of faith - is immune. I could imagine that, if the underlying idea is good, this could be implemented by adding an entry to yellow books. Which might lead to a sudden shortage of yellow books!

However, the WHO has recommended not proceeding with the idea in the short term, and the article discusses the underlying issues.

Most of [the] studies show that people who have recovered from infection have antibodies to the virus.

However, some of these people have very low levels of neutralizing antibodies in their blood, suggesting that cellular immunity may also be critical for recovery.*

Laboratory tests that detect antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in people, including rapid immunodiagnostic tests, need further validation to determine their accuracy and reliability.

Inaccurate immunodiagnostic tests may falsely categorize people...

*not sure what this para means

cheers skip

 

[lovetravellingoz]

this could be implemented by adding an entry to yellow books. Which might lead to a sudden shortage of yellow books!

Well I have a Yellow Book, which has many entries thanks to trips to Africa and Nepal, but I doubt I have CV19 and have plans to try and not get CV19.

 

[CityRail]

I actually wonder, as international travellers require to be at the airport 2 hours before flight, and provided that the latest Coronavirus test kit can have result in an hour, whether that indicates that travellers may need to be at the check in 3 hour prior flight in order to do Coronavirus swab test and proven that they are negative before being allowed on board?
I think as international travel is set to resume in the second half of the year, and a vaccine seem only available in September, this is something we should be thinking about.

 

[JohnM]

...and a vaccine seem only available in September...

Fuggedit, just fuggedit! There is NO WAY there will be a vaccine, certainly for general use, by September (unless, you possibly mean September 2030...)

 

[PineappleSkip]

Well I have a Yellow Book, which has many entries thanks to trips to Africa and Nepal, but I doubt I have CV19 and have plans to try and not get CV19.

Getting the disease was not a course of action I was recommending!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Getting the disease was not a course of action I was recommending!

Yes, I was just joking

 

[DC3]

.... There is NO WAY there will be a vaccine, certainly for general use, by September (unless, you possibly mean September 2030...)

However, dettol, bleach and UV/sunlight are available now.

 

[Gremlin]

I actually wonder, as international travellers require to be at the airport 2 hours before flight, and provided that the latest Coronavirus test kit can have result in an hour, whether that indicates that travellers may need to be at the check in 3 hour prior flight in order to do Coronavirus swab test and proven that they are negative before being allowed on board?
I think as international travel is set to resume in the second half of the year, and a vaccine seem only available in September, this is something we should be thinking about.

I'm not sure that this is going to fly...

Let's say you get infected whilst in the cab on the way to the airport. No way that a test at the airport is going to come thru as positive. You'll have very little virus in your body at that stage and not even close to starting to shed it.

The Aust Govt are going to be worried about how infectious you are upon return and back in the community, not whether you test positive before you hop on your return flight. Too much risk to let you go on your way without a quarantine period back in Australia. I suspect other countries worried about the risk of imported cases would feel the same.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'm not sure that this is going to fly...

Let's say you get infected whilst in the cab on the way to the airport. No way that a test at the airport is going to come thru as positive. You'll have very little virus in your body at that stage and not even close to starting to shed it.

The Aust Govt are going to be worried about how infectious you are upon return and back in the community, not whether you test positive before you hop on your return flight. Too much risk to let you go on your way without a quarantine period back in Australia. I suspect other countries worried about the risk of imported cases would feel the same.

Quarantine on return is the only safe way until it is proven that catching CV 19 makes one immune (not relevant unless you have had it) , or you have a 100% successful vaccine (If a working vaccine/s is/are developed quite probably that it/they will not be 100% effective. A coughtail of different vaccines may boost the immunity rate).

Now if a vaccine is successful for most, and say there are effective treatments developed then things may be relaxed. ie accepting a fly like infection and mortality rate.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think as international travel is set to resume in the second half of the year,

Without a vaccine this would require 14 day quarantine on return. Plus the country to be visited may possibly require 14 day quarantine as well.

and a vaccine seem only available in September, this is something we should be thinking about.

At present there is very little chance of a successful vaccine being developed by September. There are scores of candidates but most estimate 12 months at best and more like 18months +.

And once injected it will take an unknown period of time before the vaccine will be fully effective. 2 weeks maybe? So you cannot be injected one day and fly out the next day unless the visiting country is happy to risk it.

 

[drron]

Back in 1919 the Spanish flu arrived in Australia.Australia first quarantined ships and set up a National Influenza Planning conference which sounds a bit like today's National cabinet.
"It held a national influenza planning conference in Melbourne on 26–27 November 1918, at which state health ministers, the directors-general of their health departments and British Medical Association representatives met with Commonwealth personnel.

The conference agreed to the federal government taking responsibility for proclaiming which states were infected along with organising maritime and land quarantine. The states would arrange emergency hospitals, vaccination depots, ambulance services, medical staff and public awareness measures."

How they dealt with it sounds similiar to today.
"The experience of pneumonic influenza varied from place to place. The city of Sydney implemented strict measures in an attempt to limit the spread of the disease. This included closing schools and places of entertainment and mandating the use of masks.

Such measures didn’t prevent the spread of the disease, but did manage to slow its movement. Even so, Sydney experienced three waves of outbreaks, with many deaths and many more infections.

In Perth, the combination of the city’s relative isolation and effective state border quarantine control ensured that pneumonic influenza didn’t appear there until June 1919."

But 15000 Australians died.

Influenza pandemic

1919: Influenza pandemic reaches Australia

www.nma.gov.au

There was no vaccine for the virus though CSL developed a vaccine for some of the bacteria that caused a secondary infection.The first flu vaccine was in 1938.
Yet in 1920 things were back to normal to start the Swinging Twenties.
It will not take vaccine availability to return to a semblance of normality.